Squirt wrote:
So, what is everyone's predictions for the actual state of Brexit come March 2019?
MOST LIKELY BY A WIDE MARGIN: a transition period that is very similar or identical to where we are today, with no significant progress made on answering the burning questions about how Brexit is actually going to work. [1] Most of the hard questions still outstanding, so kick the can down the road for 2-3 years, maybe even into the next Parliament. This might be constructed as an extension of the Article 50 notice period, rather than a formal transition agreement, in order to make it politically more palatable but it's very similar in practice.
LESS LIKELY: a cliff-edge crash out onto WTO rules. Becomes significantly more likely if May faces a leadership challenge, as we're then much more likely to see a hard Brexit fan like Rees-Mogg, Fox, Davis [2], Johnson [3], or the like elevated. The voices in the Tory party that might bring some sense to the EU negotiations -- like Ruth Davidson or even (fucking hell) Rudd -- will stay well clear of the poisioned chalice of leadership at this point. Varying degrees of disruption to everyday life depending on how many of the details of things like Clear Skies, Euratom, customs inspections for imports, etc have been resolved but the general consensus is it's already too late to implement most of them properly so the amount of disruption starts at "serious" and goes up.
EVEN LESS LIKELY: actual meaningful progress towards a shared understanding between the UK, the EU, and the UK electorate about what Brexit looks like ie. answers to the stuff in [1].
EVEN LESS LIKELY AGAIN: shared understanding
and broad agreement from the stakeholders.
EVEN LESS LIKELY AGAIN: cancelling the whole thing.
TOTALLY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN: a formal, final agreement that wraps the whole thing up, trade, immigration, the works. The "easiest deal in the world" as one of our fucking stupid ministers put it. I can't even be bothered to look up who because it's too depressing.
MOST LIKELY OF ALL: extended periods of heavy drinking and light sobbing from anyone with half a clue.
[1] In other words squaring circles like:
a) are we going to have a customs union, and will we be in or out of the Single Market?
b) how is the NI border going to work
c) how are we going to replace our significant goods trade deficit
d) are we going to let our services trade surplus be cut off
e) are we going to continue to be under the jurisdiction of the ECJ
f) are we going to pay tens of billions in the "divorce settlement"
g) what the hell are we going to eat if we can't import EU food
h) what are we doing about the EU citizens who live here
etc etc. A lot of this amounts to "how many of May's idiotic redlines is she prepared to let go." She appears to be getting ready to blink on some of them, based on the press this week about paying the EU €40bn.
[2] fans on ideological grounds ie. fucking idiots
[3] possibly a fan because he is so obsessed with Churchill he needs a great enemy to make stirring speeches about, as that's much more glamorous than actually doing all the boring fiddly bits of politics, he's exactly that fucking shallow, and the EU is all he's got to rhetoricise about.