Be Excellent To Each Other

OK, Grim... let's put it this way using Dimmers' stats.

2% of the population of America are bitten by a dog each year. Every year you have a 1 in 50 chance of being bitten by a dog. Lets say you leave your house 200 times a year, because you are a partial recluse and it makes the maths easy.

That means every time you leave the house in America, you have a 1 in 10,000 chance of being bitten by a dog. Pretty low chance it will happen that day.

BUT, you are an American, and for the sake of this will live beyond the age of 50. You have a 1 in 50 (2%) chance of being bitten in any given year, spread over the course of your 50 year lifetime, statistically you WILL be bitten once in your lifetime (in reality this isn't true as some people will be bitten more than once and some none at all, and as the population has a higher average age at death than 50 years old it actually increases the probability of being bitten once in your lifetime by a fair amount).

Anyway, so the thing about the probability of being bitten is that leaving your house you have a 1 in 10,000 (probability low) of being bitten every time you walk out of your door, but in your 50 year lifetime you will walk out of that door 10,000 times (200 times a year), so if it has a 1 in 10,000 chance of happening, and you go out 10,000 times in your lifetime, you will be bitten.

So:
Today, the chance that you will be bitten is low, so a fear may seem irrational, but

You know that statistically a dog will attack you once in your lifetime if you live to be fifty. Are you right to be afraid of dogs knowing that, as an American, you have a 1 in 1 chance of being attacked by a dog in your lifetime?

I don't know if a fear of anything dog-shaped is rational, but if a dog, barking and large, jumps up at you, no matter how friendly that dog may think it is being, is it so irrational to be afraid of whether that dog means to do you harm when you know at some point in your life you will be attacked by one?

PS: I take no responsibility for my loose grasp of mathematics.

PS: Don't forget that you don't meet a dog every time you step outside, either, meaning that the chances are greatly increased every time you have a close 'encounter' with a dog.

sorry, there were some 0s missing.

Not in my opinion, no, considering the amount of dogs you come into contact with during your lifetime.

(It's also worth noting that if you have a 1:50 chance of being attacked by a dog each year but don't get attacked this year, it doesn't change to 1:49 the next year, it's still 1:50, in the same way that being bitten in one year doesn't make you immune to dog bites for the next forty-nine)

oh yes, absolutely. That's why I sad in reality the statistics aren't 'true' in that some people will be bitten more than once and some not at all.

Obviously you don't get to the age of 49 without being bitten and stay at home for the last of your 50 years because it will definitely happen then.

Honestly? The knowledge that, as an American, I have a 1 in 1 chance of being attacked by a dog in my 50 year lifetime is reason enough for me not to trust strange dogs, and to avoid them. I don't personally think a nervousness around dogs is irrational, because I don't think that an immediate trust of somebody else's animal, whose character you know nothing of, makes any sense.

I don't assume that all dogs are evil, just as I don't assume the are all loving companions, but unless I develop a sure fire way of knowing which one is running towards me barking, the sensible thing, in my mind, is to steer clear and not take the risk.

I'd describe that as being wary rather than being afraid, though.

This is not how statistics work, Mimi. It's a common misconception but it's utterly wrong.

When you roll a dice, you have a 1-in-6 chance of rolling a six. You roll the dice 6 times. Are you certain to get a six?

I like it when Mimi does maths.

Heh, very true - but what's the actual probability of rolling a six on one or more of those rolls, doc?

dogs and stats... cool thread

I have only been bitten by my own dog, so I am ok for the next 14 years..

I'm gonna quote this again, to make a point

I heard the chance of drowning is 15:1, so now I avoid going on all channel 4 evening game shows.

1-(5/6)^6, obv. Or 66%.

To correct Mimi, the chance of being bitten in 50 years based on the 1/50th chance is 1-(49/50)^50, or 64%. High, but not the 100% she is quoting.

However note I have disputed the relevence of the 1/50 stat, because of the involvement of children.

Edit -- I had forgotten the 1- bit so my stats were wrong.

Want to revisit those numbers?

I edited while you were posting. Oopsie.

I'll even let you have another go, if you like

Motherfuck.

I love stats.

You are missing where I said that it isn't an actual 1 in 1 chance, as obviously not every person gets bitten exactly once. I said that at least twice. I also said that there wasn't a mounting probability that because you weren't bitten one day doesn't increase the likelihood of being bitten on subsequent days. And I do understand how it works, yes. I could flip a coin 50 times and it land heads up every time, but the next coin flip still has an equiprobable chance of landing heads or tails, despite the fact that if you set out to flip 50 consecutive 'head' sides the odds will be massively stacked against you, but only to the same degree that if you set out to flip a particular chain of heads and tails (H, H, H, T, H, H, T, T, H, T, H... T, T, H) that you'd hit that exact sequence.

Anyway, I did say that it wasn't an actual person by person probability but based on the population as a whole.

No, honestly, you were applying science to the situation and I wouldn't have even thought of trying! So,

For the record, I understood what Mimi meant perfectly when she originally said it and I also understand that the rough maths she is doing is meant to be a simplified and 'untrue' version for illustrative purposes only to try and make her point clearer when someone didn't understand it.
She's not saying that they will 100% be bitten in their lifetime, just that their is a fairly high chance that it could happen during one of that persons close encounters with a dog and so during each individual close encounter the person would not be irrational to be fearful that this close encounter could be the one which results in a bite. It more than likely wouldn't statistically however it is not just statistics this person is relying on but also anecdotal evidence and so the fear to me does not seem to be irrational.

At least, that's what I understood her to mean and I felt it made sense

Quite agree, I said the same earlier too.

Mimi's maths was closer to the correct answer than Gaywood's first effort, if that helps

Dogs sense fear, if you're scared of them they'll know.
As zarzy said let them sniff your hand, go down to their level and they'll be nice.
Or just up and try and bite you (depending on the dog)
I love dogs, I can't help but always go and say hello to most dogs I see.

You aren't actually helping the situation though considering Kujo tried to eat you the other week

That's more the owners fault.
Getting bitten doesnt affect how I feel about dogs, and most of the time they'll be nice, it's just chavdogs that you've gotta watch out for.

I can never trust anybody who carries their dog. If they're wearing bow ties and hats that's even creepier.

They are very unlikely to be able to injure you - I'm not fussed being attacked by a dog I can easily score a dropgoal with.

Hahaha!

I can't let Willow out for walks right now because she hasn't had all her jags but I was advised to get her used to traffic noises as she was quite nervous when we took her home. We live on a quiet street though so yesterday I walked down the town with Wullie and I carried Willow to get her used to noise. She can't get a wee chill either so I put a wee red doggy jumper on her. I also had my handbag over my shoulder.
Every now and then I made Wullie get me my purse or something out my bag and I could tell he was just cringing at walking along the street with me carrying a tiny wee doggy in a jumper while he carried my handbag.

You're spoiling that dog.

There was about a twenty second delay while I read that, scrunched up my forehead and then read it again before I clicked and giggled. Good work.

You have him.

I really don't like dogs.

Reasons:

1) Ear Rape. When you're 4, and get raped in the ear by a dog twice your size, that certainly puts a downer on your relationships with dogs.
2) Getting bowled over by dogs. I was a small child. Dogs used to injure me when let off the lead.
3) When I was 18ish, I lost a pair of trousers and a wallet to a "friendly" dog. If I hadn't had a wallet and phone in the way, I would've lost my manly bits. I didn't believe my mothers friend when she said he wouldn't harm anything. I certainly didn't when she kept repeating it after the torn trousers/wallet proved otherwise.
4) About a year earlier, my friend had a dog who also "wouldn't harm anyone, hasn't done so in 10 years". A week after meeting the dog it attacked a doctor who'd had to come round to the house quite severely. It got put down as a consequence. Again, despite this, the owner was quite convinced it was harmless after the fact.
5) I know one lady who now can't really speak, as she had her neck bitten (Agan, by a 'harmless, well trained' dog) while she was feeding a dog that belonged to a friend.
6) The first thing they do as a greeting seems to be to ram their nose into your groin. Strictly not required.
7) They smell bad. (I know of at least one case of a car being written off simply by smelling of dog) Unsurprisingly, the owners are not aware of this.
Look what you could have instead!

Adorable, non violent guinea pigs! Ever heard of a guinea pig needing to be muzzled?

So yeah, I will do whatever I can to avoid meeting dogs, as even supposedly well trained dogs, as above, have triggers.

Excellent. Ear rape wins the thread.

Look, you agreed to come to Manchester meet. You knew the risks.

I really don't see where Mimi deserved the snidey comments aimed at her, I'm with her and Mr Kissyfur.

Dogs aren't nice, they're vicious pack predators that we've nominally managed to 'tame' to the extent that they mostly don't respond to their instincts, but when they do (and no one can ever say with 100% certainty that their dog won't go mental one day) they'll rip someone's face off in the blink of an eye.

My daughter is terrified of dogs after she got bowled over by one in the park when she was little (despite the massive NO DOGS ALLOWED signs), amazingly it was yet another one of these 'friendly' dogs, as the owner was at pains to explain to me as my daughter's hysterics escalated by the second, I'd have loved to have explained to her that the big drooling stinking muddy collection of pointy teeth and foul breath was being friendly, but as my daughter is autistic this wasn't possible.

I'd been largely ambivalent about dogs before then but now I dislike them by proxy, and Mimi is absolutely right, you have to run the gauntlet of fuckwit dog owners all the time, be it dog shit all over the place, or dogs at large where they're specifically not supposed to be, or owners who think you want to admire their friendly pets.

Why should I have to 'show no fear' or 'let a dog sniff me' or any shit like that? Is there anything grosser than being licked by a dog? I've seen where that tongue has been!

In summary, I want to have fuck all to do with you and your horrible stinking wolf, so please fuck off with it.

Swap around the order of "child" and "dog" in that post and I'd agree.

Mr Dave wins.

Please can we now close the forum? Nothing tops this so we might as well all just give up now.

We seemed to have moved from "phobia of dogs" to "I don't like dogs".
Also, what "snidey comments"?

Gladly.

They came across as a bit snidey to me, they may not have been intended as such.

To address 'phobia of dogs' versus 'don't like' or 'fear of' or whatever - I think it's entirely rational to be wary of them at least, it's probably instinctive at some level because back in the day we'd have been another one of their victims on a fairly regular basis.

I feel uncomfortable when I see dogs that aren't on leads in public places, doubly so if I'm with my daughter for obvious reasons, where does phobia start and rational wariness end? Hard to say I suppose, certainly I'd keep clear of a big dog that was unrestrained if I had the opportunity to do so.

That's not wariness.

Daisy, yesterday, plotting humanity's downfall.

Don't put your camera that close, she'll rip your face off in the blink of an eye.

What did?

Yes indeed.

Tricky. I reckon it's when you are afraid of dogs, rather than a dog.

I was using a 650mm telephoto lens from inside an armoured bunker half a mile away. I'm not an idiot, man! It's not like we're talking about a cougar or a lion here. These are wild dogs.

Are you ok Doc?

as I was reading this, a child on the bus screamed. My fear of dogs may be irrational, but my fear of kids is perfectly justified