Jem wrote:
Incidentally, I finally got round to looking at the employment figures vs zero hour contracts...
Cavey wrote:
totally exposing the lie behind the brainless Left grievance-meme about "it's all zero hours contracts innit basterd Torees" crap.
There were est. 31,420,000 people in employment in 2010, est. 31,850,000 based on the latest release - that's a difference of 430,000 extra people in employment. With the 700,000~ increase in zero hour contracts since 2010... I would say not only is it likely that a significant portion IS zero hour contracts, but it's possible that a portion of people who were previously on full time or part time contracts are now on zero hour jobbies instead.
Heh! I missed this before, but, by crikey this caught my (bleary
) eye this morning.
So, let's take a closer look. Jem's assertions are essentially that:
1. There are only 430,000 more people in employment now, as compared to 2010.
2. By inference, given that there has only been a 430,000 increase in total employment since 2010, the number of non zero contract employments has actually FALLEN since 2010, by some 270,000
Lets take a look at the latest ONS data that I was originally referring to.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlab ... et/mar2017Quote:
1. Main points for the 3 months to January 2017
Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between August to October 2016 and the 3 months to January 2017, the number of people in work increased, the number of unemployed people fell, and the number of people aged from 16 to 64 not working and not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) also fell.
There were 31.85 million people in work, 92,000 more than for August to October 2016 and 315,000 more than for a year earlier.
There were 23.34 million people working full-time, 305,000 more than for a year earlier. There were 8.52 million people working part-time, 10,000 more than for a year earlier.
The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 74.6%, the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.
So, straight away, we see that fully 315,000 more people were in work than only ONE year ago, let alone 2010(!), but let's continue to analyse the various data.
It should also be noted that the ONS cites an employment rate of 74.6% (the highest since records began - which doesn't sound too bad, eh
), this equating to 31.85 million people in work. This means we can readily calculate the total working population, this being given by (31.85 million / 0.746 [74.6%] = 42.7 million.
Now, take a look at Figure 2 in that ONS data. You'll see that in Feb-Apr 2010, the employment rate was only 70.2% (and Figure 3 shows the massive increase since 2012 also).
Now, if we have 74.6% now, as compared to 70.2% back in 2010, this is a net increase of 4.4% in the proportion of people in jobs. That might not seem like much, but actually, for a total working population of 42.7 million, it is approximately equal to:
2010 people in work: 42.7 million x 0.702 = 29.98 million people in work
2017 people in work: 42.7 million x 0.746 = 31.85 million people in work
There for the ACTUAL number of extra people in employment is (31.85 million - 29.98 million) = ~2 MILLION, not 430,000, and most certainly not -270,000.
[note the above simplistic calc assumes static population between 2010 and 2017, but actually it's gone up by ~2.5 million in that time, meaning that the 2010 people in work figure is lower than I've shown, meaning the Tories' performance is even better than I've suggested]
This is what I mean, though. Whatever you may or may not think about the Tories, they have created 2 million jobs from the economic "there's no money left1111!" wreckage of 2010. Instead of getting credit, though, stuff just gets made up and banded about as if fact ("post-truth" syndrome).
In terms of the zero hours contract thing, there were 200,000 of these throughout 2000-2010 so they're nothing new. Even if the 700,000 increase is viewed as entirely bad (which I certainly don't think it should be), that's still barely a third of the total jobs created, exposing the "it's all zero-hours contracts" myth for what it is. In actual fact, the number of non zero-hours contract employment has also risen sharply in this period, by some 1.3 million-odd.
I guess the question for me, Jem, is that now you know that actually the Tories have created 2 million, not 430k jobs since 2010, will you view their track record in any different light whatsoever?
Quote:
(Figures from ONS)
/raises Roger Moore eyebrow