Be Excellent To Each Other

His falling out with Alex Salmond is testimony to why you should approach him with caution.

He doesn't give a shit about the UK. He wants some positive press.

Note that after he said that the UK should not go to the back of the line on trade, Gove asked if that meant that they would receive priority of any kind. Trump refused to say that. Gove shows incredible naivety by saying that Trump is a businessman, and that means he sets out to get the best deal for both parties.

That's literally the opposite of what a 'businessman' does.

Perhaps Mr Gove and Mr Trump are more similar than I thought in their need to feel important and respected.

[Aside] Mr Gove and Mr Trump: like Mr Burke and Mr Hare, but creepier.

My knowledge of the USA process runs out here - presumably any Trade Deal would have to be hammered out by the State Dept ( and others, I imagine ) and then passed by Congress? It's not as if Trump can stamp a big form saying "Free trade for all!", although I guess any negotiation is unlikely to get started without his prompting.

"Miniature American Flags for others!"

And neither should he, except to the extent that it is advantageous to the USA for him to do so.

I'm not sure why people seem to think he should.

Because he's a businessman.

Normally I'd watch things like this because of history and the importance of ceremony in political life etc but on Friday I think I'll go to a TV-less pub rather than watch Mr Trump's coronation.

But it will feature America's number 2 Bruce Springsteen tribute act! You don't want to miss that!

Soooo....the Northern Ireland power-sharing executive has collapsed then.

I'm not sure how many people do, outside of just generally treating your allies in a positive manner. I think it is just convenient for the likes of Gove to pretend that he's invested in the success of the UK (and likewise politically convenient for Trump).

Well the prevailing message from May and the brexit camp appears to be that we'll get better trade deals from our 'friends' than we currently get being part of the world's largest economy, so they're definitely trying to persuade the public that we'd somehow be in a favourable position negotiating a trade deal with a United States that it looking like being exceptionally protectionist.

If anybody believes that a US-UK trade deal wouldn't be TTIP except simply for the UK, then I have a bridge to sell you.

As the week comes to an end, I may just start drinking heavily and re-watching old Obama speeches…

Hi there Peter!
Are you still in North Carolina? If so how have the Tarheels taken to the new GOP majority?

From the way the last couple of weeks have gone, I'd be surprised if it wasn't TTIP plus an additional 20% tariff uplift for daring to sell Americans things not made in America.

Pfft, India have already said how happy they'll be to have a free trade deal with us, without any awkward additional requirements, right? The good ol' Commonwealth still hold a soft spot for us.

We're like the smelly old uncle that still gives them presents on Christmas.

I'm currently in Houston! But only because my flight home from SFO got hit by storms and we had to divert to Texas. Slightly scary.

Back home in NC, Durham is still in a state of shock. We're a town that is roughly 50%/50% black/white and has been a haven for LGBTQ people in the last decade or so (we've been ground zero for a lot of the transgender bathroom protests). But you don't have to drive too far to find people who are very happy with the upcoming situation. At least we managed to turf out the Governor!

I have filed papers for US citizenship in the last month; it's looking like I'm staying here, so it might be nice to have a say in how things are run…

Excellent stuff. Be sure to give the more accurate of the two accepted answers to the 'what caused the civil war' question on the citizenship test

Reavers

And over a case of maladministration. It's almost like normal politics!

I'm going to Belfast in mid-March: if things haven't been resolved by then I'll happily step in as governor.

I've heard that they've pulled out. Clearly they were no match for the Dealmeister.

Heh. Well, I guess we'll have to see how it all pans out; I may well be wrong but I can certainly see benefits to the newly-formed Trump administration in getting the UK onside ASAP. It's pure politics for sure, but none the less potentially beneficial.

One thing's for absolute certain, though: Obama never did us any favours, Farage is right on that score I'm sorry to say.

From my POV, I never saw any alternative whatsoever to so-called "Hard Brexit" - this is the ONLY Brexit, and all that talk of '...weeell, of COURSE the Germans will want to sell us their Mercedes cars and business will prevail over politics" as the naive tosh it always was. Like, as if the French, the Italians or whoever else is remotely going the "let" the Brits have access to the Free Market in any a la carte shape or form; we always could file that right alongside the £350 million/week NHS red bus bullshit.

For me, May is facing up to this reality, as we all of us now surely must, and make the best of it. The EU certainly will not want a UK with zero Corporation tax. (I might though )

I don't see why. Trump is overtly protectionist, we still don't have any skilled trade negotiators, and May's government would accept any old shit deal so they can trumpet how we don't need the EU. There's no way a deal with the US will be good for us.

Would we like a shit sandwich, or a sandwich made of shit?

What can I say? I don't share your abject pessimism; there are plenty of clever people within the Parliamentary Conservative Party (many of whom are in business for real, unlike Labour's sorry remnants). I hardly think it's a foregone conclusion that whatever they come up with will be utterly shit. Well, not at least as far as I'm concerned anyway.

I wanted to stay in the EU (almost) as much as you did, but there *is* life beyond Brussels you know. We just have to get on with it now and make the best of it, not throw up our hands in a great big sulk, saying we're all doomed.

As far as the man on the street goes, what actual impacts do you think we'll see from Brexit?

Higher food prices? Higher unemployment?

This is a genuine question as to how this will translate into actually affecting me.

There are lots of clever people - but they're not skilled trade negotiators. Because we've delegated the creation of trade deals to the EU for the last 30 years, we don't have any. The US, by contrast, has a legion of them. We'll have a load of newly minted civil servants who've never previously negotiated a trade deal and we'll be throwing them into a shark tank.

I agree we have to move forward, but that doesn't mean to say we don't acknowledge the fact that post brexit we'll be in an incredibly weakened position with regard to trade - and Trump has shown so far that he has absolutely no interest in anything except one-sided deals that favour the US and the US alone.

The problem with Trump is quite what he'll do if you damage his amazingly thin skin.

In all honesty Russ, I haven't got a clue. I mean seriously, wtf do I know?
If I had to say, my guess would be minor to moderate inflation and job losses to the short term (say, c.18 months timescales), stalled growth for the next two years (but not outright recession), but followed by medium to long term strong growth and substantial rebalancing of the economy. The Tories will use Brexit and its reverberations to significantly cut overall State benefits and increase austerity (albeit on a selective basis).

I don't think immigration will hardly be affected at all, ironically. The Scots will have Indyref2, and will vote to remain within the Union by an even greater margin that the previous 11 points.

The UK will strike mutually beneficial trade deals with US, China and other major world economies. The Euro will now collapse within a 5 year timescale, and the EU with it.

tl;dr: Short term pain, long term gain.

No Cavey, this isn't the point. The fact is that it isn't a comparison between "doom" and "not quite doom" it is a comparison between what we could have had and what we are left with.

I don't think anyone is really predicting complete economical disaster, however, they are predicting being in a worse situation than we would have been in without Brexit and negotiating from a broadcasted position of weakness.

Edit: this was in response to a post above!

I really, really, really hope not. I can't see us ( or anyone else, TBH ) coming out of that unscathed.

Well, I agree we should've voted to remain in EU (and fixed it), but now we're out, the path of the EU as-was has also now fundamentally (and I think terminally) changed too. This once-future is now gone, in every sense.

Oh, absolutely - total meltdown.

It's obvious why the UK would want a trade deal quickly. Not so much the US, China, etc. They have us over a barrel and they know it.

So your optimism about the whole thing extends as far as the apocalypse scheduled for 2022? Yeah, I'll be sure to get right on board with that then.

And this is the concern. We have literally zero bargaining chips. We will be desperate, and openly so. Deals we end up making will be so painfully one-sided to our detriment as a result.

Yes, but on the other hand there are political reasons why Trump in particular wants a major power onside and seen to be trading within *his* new world order framework (or whatever you want to call it). You'd also have to concede that, for whatever reason(s) - inertia, incompetence, inflexibility or whatever else, the EU has been spectacularly *shit* at negotiating trade deals with other major blocs and maybe, just maybe, those other blocs actually see the mutual benefits of free trade and fancy breaking the decades-long impasse, and see the UK as the conduit to achieve such a thing. The UK itself could well benefit?

All idle speculation of course, and I may be waaaaay off beam! Like I said to Russ, wtf do I know afterall?

Trump has very plainly stated that he does not want free trade, or a free market. He is openly and avowedly protectionist.

See, I think as a man on the street, unless I lose my job, none of that stuff affects me. It's the stuff that stuff affects that might affect me, and nobody can seem to say what that is (hence my guesses of higher food prices for example).

Good answer though.

Heh. I said the Euro will ultimately collapse the minute it was conceived, and I haven't seen much to dampen that predicted ultimate outcome; there's a finite amount of road that can can be kicked down. It won't happen in the short term, though, and so the UK getting its shit together outside of the EU will (I argue) put us in a better position to weather that storm when it hits. I know where I'd rather be if and when it does, so even in that sense it is "long term gain".

You can't seriously believe the Euro will persist?

Trump's offering a cracking deal on faint praise at the moment. Looking good for Theresa and the gang.

https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/820965096763621376

True - in a very broad context. It remains to be seen what can be negotiated in our own particular case, given the unique politics of the situation - and on that score I am not as pessimistic as you, as stated.

The colossally stupid thing is that India, China and other large economies have made no secret that any trade deal they strike with us must include increased rights for them to live and work here.

I've honestly got no idea but it just struck me that on the one hand you're telling everyone to be optimistic and on the other stating that we have set in motion a chain of events that will culminate in a total global economic meltdown in five years time and presumably fuck knows what as a result.

Is it feasible that the EU could end up strengthened by the cautionary tale of the UK? Certainly it's not in their interests to make it easy for us, even at some cost to themselves.