Curiosity wrote:
Jem wrote:
Cavey wrote:
Jem wrote:
Cavey wrote:
Mind you, I'm in the building game and I can say with certainty that, following an *incredibly* brief post-Brexit blip lasting a month or less, the Contruction Sector is booming. Just look at the massive spike in Persimmon shares, and others, only yesterday.
Didn't house builder type shares plummet around the type of the referendum or am I thinking of something else? How are they now compared to back then? (Genuine interest, not leading to some intellectual conclusion of any sort
)
Well, I'm no expert nor wheeler-dealer in shares (hah!), but quick googling Persimmon reveals a big Brexit crash and subsequent recovery to at, or very close to pre-Brexit levels. So as far as the Market is concerned, they appear to be pricing Brexit as "meh, so what".
Ta
A quick Google reveals that the stock prices were:
Pre-Brexit - 2098
End of year - 1760 (more than 17% of value lost)
Today, following government announcement of more homes to be built - 1934 (still around 8% down)
Rough price expected had Brexit not happened had Persimmon moved in the same direction as their long term trend line - 2400 (so they are over 19% down on what they would have expected).
So, even on a good day, not a great position.
That's not to say that I think Brexit is killing housing or anything. I would have thought it to be particularly resilient to be honest. We still have massive demand outstripping supply by a considerable margin. I would expect builders to do well; we're not just going to boot millions of people out of the country and suddenly have a huge housing surplus.
But that's a ridiculous analysis.
Taking the absolute peak that occurred
the very flipping day before Brexit and saying that's your benchmark is pretty daft, and hardly objective now, is it? Jem's me asked a straight, unloaded, friendly question (breath of fresh air) and wanted a straight answer, which I've attempted to give. Clearly, you're not doing that because, as per, you have your agenda, Curio.
For anyone who's
actually interested, here's a link to the Persimmon share price time history graph. Click the 1-year tab.
https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid ... %20historyAny fair-minded person would have to conclude that the current share price is pretty typical, or very close to the pre-Brexit price (and actually higher for some periods). They started the year with a share price of 1969, and, a year later, they're now on 1937 - yowzers. big deal.
Just to be clear (again
), I have no agenda here since I was - and still am - anti Brexit. However, I'm interested in facts, not distorted spin to suit a given political argument (either way), and I suspect Jem is too. Besides which, I work in Construction as I've said, and it's booming from where I am sitting.
_________________
Beware of gavia articulata oculos...
Dr Lave wrote:
Of course, he's normally wrong but
interestingly wrong