Be Excellent To Each Other

Why nobody has had the balls to turn around and say "it was an advisory referendum, we're not leaving" I don't know.

I sometimes wonder if the gameplan is to string things out for so long that public opinion switches the other way and by 2022 or so it can be quietly dropped. This might fall under the category of 'desperate bargaining', however.

Anyone in a position of power who said that would soon find themselves no longer in a position of power.

They're better off just trying to delay it as long as possible.

Incidentally, I finished Tim Shipman's 'All out war' last night. I preferred it to Craig Oliver's 'Unleashing Demons'. If I get the time I'll write out some thoughts and reactions to it, but I can definitely recommend it as a great page-turner and first draft of history.

It's interesting to note that the FTSE250 continues to absolutely power ahead - it's up yet another 140-odd points this morning and it's quite literally never been better (and is some c.3,500 points higher than the immediate post-Brexit vote, and still more than 1,000 points higher than the pre-Brexit peak!)

I'm still a "Bremoaner" but must admit, between us all, I'm starting to think all the portents of doom stuff, at least in purely economic terms, was incorrect to the point of scaremongering. From where I'm sitting, UK plc is *booming*, even the (now strengthening) weak Pound has been an enormous boost to manufacturing output.

Of course, the FTSE100 also continues to enjoy its highest ever level, and in fact was the best performing European Stock this last year....

I see this in comments sections on various sites. Stuff along the lines of 'look, everything's fine!', but it feels just like the calm before the storm. Once Article 50 is triggered and we start to negotiate and find out exactly what we've let ourselves in for, that's when I imagine we'll see the gloomier stuff kick in.

So, looks like TM wants us to stay in the single market but have control over EU migration. That's unlikely to be accepted, so we will leave the single market.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01 ... le-market/

A lot of the likely bad stuff won't happen overnight, but occur slowly over time, sometimes even imperceptibly. Universities start not getting grants; the brightest/most skilled from other countries going elsewhere rather than here; businesses not investing; tax receipts dwindling etc. People just not noticing that things are changing for the worse until it's too late.

We've not seen the half of it, yet.

They must be hoping that each of the twenty-seven nations will blink in different ways.

Multi-dimensional chicken.

But nothing's actually happened yet, all we've got is a commitment to start the process in the near future, to point to a graph of the FTSE and say it's all looking quite peachy is a nonsense.

The damage is going to be measured in years and decades, not weeks and months.

Except that's not what I did of course, or even remotely.



Yes, so everyone keeps saying.
They may be right, but I credit the Markets as being smarter than that. If the medium term prospects for the UK were so dire, I would not expect the positively *booming* business environment and market performance, exports and most importantly, inward investment from the likes of Google, Nissan, Range Rover et al. These guys aren't stupid, believe you me.

I have to say my initial horror at the Brexit outcome is waning somewhat, but the jury's still out obv.

The optimist in me would like to think that in 2042 we look back and see the debris of a collapsed EU project as a move towards greater integration to save the Euro causes unresolved tensions across the bloc to erupt that the structures and politicians can't cope with, whilst we think 'phew, we jumped when we could'. Or perhaps a booming golden era of international trade and influence that some Leavers are promising after an initial bumpy ride. But I'm not Nostradamus and at the moment just can't see this ending well for the country and, in particular, the most disadvantaged and most excluded sectors of society.

Ultimately, the companies in the UK that are large enough to be in the FTSE indices are well positioned to take advantage by effectively holding the country to ransom. They know this, the government knows this, and the markets know this (not least because Nissan have already done this).

The companies in the FTSE being okay does not a good country (or good economy) make.

They are also multinationals that trade outside the country and outside the pound. IIRC the stat was that almost 80% of the money being made by the FTSE-100 firms, in aggregate, is in currencies other than GBP and from economic activities in countries other than the UK . As such, they are highly insulated from even the worst case Brexit scenarios, and the FTSE-100 is a poor signal for what the money market thinks the impact of Brexit will be.

I broadly agree, but Cavey specifically mentioned the FTSE-250.

He did, which is why I didn't mention which FTSE. Doc's point is still relevant though, as the larger companies in the group will still have this effect applied.

What's more, anyone with earnings in non-GBP that reports financially in GBP has had an absolute field day, given how terribly the pound performed in 2016 (basically the worst currency in the developed world, by a decent distance).

You can also factor in that the markets are still very bullish on there being no Hard Brexit.

I can't help but think that the goal of massive destabilisation and disruption in our neighbours in order to be able to say, "well at least we aren't [France]!" is a bit crap.

Also, somewhat foolhardy as we will have no one to trade with if they're all in a mess.

Excerpt from a Sunday Times article which I think is relevant (albeit specifically concentrating on the FTSE 100). I particularly like: "Bruised by a year of bad predictions, most market experts admit in private that they are broadly clueless right now".

(Iain Dey, Business section 1/1/17)
"All-time highs are overrated. The fact that the FTSE 100 has reached a new historical zenith means very little, really. Stripping back the hype, the index of the 100 UK’s largest companies has hit its highest level since April 2015. In the interim, it fell 20% and then got back to where it started. In fact, the FTSE is still only 3% ahead of its previous “all-time high” on December 30, 1999, just before the dotcom bubble burst. That’s hardly stellar growth over a 17-year period.
In a world of Smithian rational actors, steady growth and stable inflation, the market should logically reach a new all-time high every day.
Until 1999, that’s pretty much what happened — with the index broadly climbing higher, smoothing out blips such as Black Wednesday along the way. The chart for the past two decades looks more like the peaks and troughs of a heart-rate monitor.
In terms of the overall health of the UK market, many of the traditional indicators suggest that all is far from well. The number of takeover deals involving British companies fell by half last year, according to figures from Dealogic. The number of new companies joining the London Stock Exchange dropped 34%, according to PwC.
The gains in the blue-chip index boil down to arithmetic, rather than an arousal of animal spirits. The fall in sterling over the summer boosted foreign earnings for our multinationals, with their shares rising accordingly.
Where does it go from here? Bruised by a year of bad predictions, most market experts admit in private that they are broadly clueless right now. There are just too many variables; mostly the wild array of geopolitical factors discussed by David Smith below. There are also some perverse, counter-intuitive forces at work. Those who see the storm clouds gathering and believe the Project Fear predictions of a gloomy post-Brexit existence should arguably buy more British shares. A weaker outlook for the UK economy would mean sterling weakening further — and thus an additional currency-fuelled pop to the FTSE 100, which makes 80% of its earnings overseas."

I didn't read his post. I was replying to Curio.

Who was replying to Cavey. Who specifically mentioned the FTSE-250

Yeah, JBR, I can well believe they are making it up as they go along. It's basically what they've always done. It's a complete crapshoot as to whether it goes right or not. Yet they make millions. So depressing.

The irritating thing for me here is that, a few months ago people like Gaywood were saying '... don't look at the FTSE100 as that's totally irrelevant to the UK economy, it's the FTSE250 that's the acid test'. Now though of course, with the FTSE250 riding high, goalposts are duly moved. Again.

As for your point about Nissan, I reject this almost in its entirety - this is ONE example which, given they're a large manufacturer poised to make multi-billion pound re-tooling and other investments, they're hardly typical of the 250 companies that make up this UK index. It's hardly the case that all, or even a substantial portion of these firms can "hold the country to ransom" (presumably by demanding behind-closed-doors tax rebates just to stay in the UK, even though unlike Nissan, most are actual UK-based firms). It all smacks of tin-foil hat to me.

As for your final point about good FTSE = good country, I repeat what I said to Hearthly, I have *not* said this. Surely we're all able to accept that by merely considering one parameter or metric, I am not *by default* saying this is the only thing that matters...? Good grief man.

L-lol.

I'm willing to admit that my teenage enthusiasm for adopting the Euro as soon as possible was severely misguided. I still have a Euro Monopoly set with replica notes and coins somewhere.

Hindsight's a wonderful thing.
I was an arch opponent of the Euro, and still am - though vindication is Pyrrhic of course, I'd have much preferred to have been wrong. But then, I'm an old bastard, and with age, I can well remember first hand the disaster that was the ERM. (I'm not quite old enough for the Gold Standard )

Of course, I myself have been wrong about loads of other stuff, we all have.

I'm surprised no one has suggested bringing back the Gold Standard ( or Silver ) once we leave the EU. It seems the sort of thing the fringier types would approve of somehow.

We don't have any gold left, do we?

Easily fixed, just devalue the pound until it reaches however much gold we have.

You should pitch that in the interview for Carney's job.

For what it's worth I'm not listed on the FTSE but my business has taken a 30% hit since the day of the referendum.

It has? How did Brexit affect the amount of people looking for cheap games?

At a guess: because Lewie is paid in GBP but has living expenses in $ANOTHER_CURRENCY.

Edit -- the same reason as why Brexit gave me a 10%ish pay rise, but in reverse.

Partly that, also I think retailers are being more conservative with discounts (and exchange rate likely plays into that), and I think people are also being a bit more careful with their money.

That's nothing to do with the business, though.


Isn't that an advantage?

Not if it manifests itself as "I will buy fewer games".

Sweet! It's been a while since Jeff Minter released something.

That is both an excellent joke, and a damning indictment of Jeff Minter.

Pound down again this morning after May's tough talk about leaving the single market over the weekend.

Hmmm, and that's relative to the dollar, which is also depressed relative to other countries because Trump.

So, in essence, her signalling that had very little effect on the value of the pound? Assuming the circled bit is when she made the announcement.

She feels it's enough that she has to backpedal this morning, it seems: #block-58737cd6e4b0be03bff442ac">https://www.theguardian.com/politics/bl ... 03bff442ac



Useless tautological waffle.

That really means nothing at all, and I would like to pose the question, is the "best possible deal" the best deal available to someone standing in the cold desperate for anything to help them, actually the "best deal possible"? Or would the negotiate from a position of power mentality obtain a slightly better outcome?

Yes Bobby, it's the same as looking for a new job whilst you already have one, otherwise you are in no power to negotiate anything.

It's THE FEAR

Pretty much. On the Richter Scale of ground-breaking developments, this is somewhere around "gnat farting on a toilet seat".

It's rather odd, don't you think, absolutely *willing* failure on the British economy, waiting with bated breath and gleefully grasping even the slightest negative indicator as heralding our collective, EU-inspired fiscal doom...? Very strange.

Is there a graph available of the pound like above but over a much longer timescale?

Never mind, found one.

What happened in June then?

Note pound climbs from my wedding onwards, the drops in Feb 2014 and rallies slightly in April 2016 before dropping post referendum. So, it is basically down to stuff that happens to me. I need to get remarried to save tbe country.

Well we are in the Brexit thread. maybe I needed a tongue in cheek smiley.

Just all these graphs seem to be focussing on the minutae of the recent events, so a longer term graph puts it into better perspective