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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 14:14 
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Cavey wrote:
I'm seriously not laughing, in fact I'm pretty pissed off about this TBH. Totally uncalled for IMO.
But hey, I'm big enough and ugly enough etc.

Consider this my last political post however. Just not worth the fucking hassle.

I'm sorry you feel that way. But it's not much different to what a few of us have said before. Why is it different now it's come from Mimi? If anything she's pulled her punches here!

-edit- bear in mind I think you're a top bloke in person, btw.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 14:20 
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I'm genuinely upset mate, sorry.
I'm really leaving it now because I'm not trying to make Mimi or anyone else feel bad; it's clear that I am not having the desired effect on people that I think/thought I was, so for that I am sorry.

I've said it before a dozen times but it really is motorbikes and cars etc. only for me now.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 14:42 
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Sorry Cavey,

I wasn't trying to hurt your feelings at all. I just think you have a lot more to offer both this thread and forum in general than a cut and paste CorbynLOL!11! Almost every day. If some of the effort and energy of these posts were just diluted into a few other areas I think we'd see more of what I know is an interesting person. I'd just like to see more of you than one circular argument, because you seem like a nice guy.

It shouldn't have to feel like all or nothing with your political posting. True moderates are... Moderate.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 14:46 
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Curiosity wrote:
Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Grim... wrote:
I think you've somewhat missed the point, Doc. That image is showing us what Murdoch's newspaper's said about the election results.

Well, maybe. But as it has no sources cited it's hard to tell.


Actually I think it's misleading, having looked a little closer.

My bad.

One of my Twitter mutuals posted about this today on the Guardian: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... misleading

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 14:47 
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If you repeatedly go out of your way to be abrasive, you can't really be too surprised when you get called on it (and as far as I'm concerned, Mimi's tone was very reasonable).


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 14:47 
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@Mimi

OK thanks, appreciated.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 14:48 
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LewieP wrote:
If you repeatedly go out of your way to be abrasive, you can't really be too surprised when you get called on it (and as far as I'm concerned, Mimi's tone was very reasonable).


Well, it's better than repeatedly going out of my way to be thick as pigshit... ;)

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 14:52 
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Cavey wrote:
Labour's vote utterly crashed in Scotland; not only did the SNP utterly annihilate them, even the hated Tories cruised past them to become, by some margin, to become the official Opposition. Who would've put money on that happening even a year or two back?
I don't think you can safely extrapolate outwards from this to the wider UK picture in the way you are suggesting. There's no English equivalent of the SNP or the independence debate and they are powerful forces in Scottish politics.

Quote:
It's similar story in the Welsh parliament, where they've lost seats and their overall majority.
"Seat", singular. Not plural. The Conservatives lost three seats, by the way, to put that in context.

Cavey wrote:
Even in terms of Councillors, Labour have lost seats, though not quite as many as the Tories (wow, quelle surprise eh, sitting governments do so well in their first year after being elected).

Conservatives gained in 2011, and Labour barely moved (although it was down, admittedly) in 2006 and 2002.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 15:05 
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I think the point is/was/will be Labour underperformed against the expected norm for a party in opposition.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 15:12 
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MaliA wrote:
I think the point is/was/will be Labour underperformed against the expected norm for a party in opposition.

I'm not convince any two election cycles are ever similar enough to make a fair comparison; I don't know how you control for the multitude of confounding factors.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 15:22 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
MaliA wrote:
I think the point is/was/will be Labour underperformed against the expected norm for a party in opposition.

I'm not convince any two election cycles are ever similar enough to make a fair comparison; I don't know how you control for the multitude of confounding factors.


Historically, the feeling has been that a party in opposition will increase the number of seats in council elections at the expense of the governing party. With the current government infighting over Europe, austerity still cutting hard and Whittingdale's private life being in the news, one might have expected good strides from Labour. Instead, they managed to fuck it up. Again.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 15:28 
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MaliA wrote:
Historically, the feeling

Got any facts to back that feeling up, champ? I'm genuinely interested to see if this is definitely the case, or just received wisdom.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 15:29 
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MaliA wrote:
Historically, the feeling has been that a party in opposition will increase the number of seats in council elections at the expense of the governing party. With the current government infighting over Europe, austerity still cutting hard and Whittingdale's private life being in the news, one might have expected good strides from Labour. Instead, they managed to fuck it up. Again.

I'm sympathetic to this view. There seems to be no such logic that people cannot find some thin caveat to cling to and hence deny, however.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 15:35 
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Lonewolves wrote:
MaliA wrote:
Historically, the feeling

Got any facts to back that feeling up, champ? I'm genuinely interested to see if this is definitely the case, or just received wisdom.



http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... emy-corbyn

There's a graph in there of net movement of when labour were in opposition

Also here: but I cannot see the raw data yet
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/tr ... -elections

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 15:45 
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MaliA wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:
MaliA wrote:
Historically, the feeling

Got any facts to back that feeling up, champ? I'm genuinely interested to see if this is definitely the case, or just received wisdom.



http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... emy-corbyn

There's a graph in there of net movement of when labour were in opposition

Also here: but I cannot see the raw data yet
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/tr ... -elections

Cheers!

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 15:47 
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This one came from the Torygraph, but if valid is a pretty damning statement of either Corbyn/Labour or indicative of a striking change in the electoral landscape.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 15:49 
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Christ, that Blair result is astonishing.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 15:56 
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Yep that's pretty bad then.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 15:57 
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Careful; that graph is of absolute numbers, but the number of seats up for election varies. If you win +200 seats and only 300 were up for election, clearly that's a strong result, not a weak one. That's why I normalised my graph a few pages back to percentages of overall seats.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 15:58 
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Curiosity wrote:
Having done a bit more reading up, I do think that it probably was overall a bad result for Labour.

They just need to stick with my plan:

Corbyn solidifies the base for a couple of years, then hands over the reins to a more dynamic character who can retain the base while reaching out to more centrist types.

I'd also say that I think both main parties are at their most vulnerable in years.

Corbyn is a problem, I think.

He's two things at once:
1) a principled politician who (it seems) puts deep left-wing principles before electability
2) incapable of running anything in a non-shambolic manner

If he was either in isolation, we wouldn't have an issue. (If he wasn't either, he'd be Tony Blair.) But he's both, so if he hung on until 2020 (no idea how likely) and then didn't get elected (very likely IMO) then we won't know if it's because of (1) or (2) or both. And it could easily take Labour another election cycle after that to figure out what the fuck it wants to be.

There's a school of thought that says politicians should never compromise ideals and Corbyn is a saint. I am not of that school; I am more pragmatic than that. I think, I hope, that there's some electable version of Labour that's still not as... morally flexible... as Tony "Illegal Wars" Blair's version.

Having said that, the other candidates for the Labour leadership were weak as piss, so who knows what the best outcome was. The party seems to have no real vision for what it's even for in the post-Blair era; having moved rightwards to court floating voters and arguably isolated its voting base it even lost voters to UKIP, which is pretty damned sad. I think it needs a good hard kick from someone very smart. I have no idea who that person is.

I also note that Khan won a solid victory in the London election but distanced himself from Corbyn, both before and after the election.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 16:07 
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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 16:34 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Careful; that graph is of absolute numbers, but the number of seats up for election varies. If you win +200 seats and only 300 were up for election, clearly that's a strong result, not a weak one. That's why I normalised my graph a few pages back to percentages of overall seats.


Very roughly
If you take the data from your table* for the years 1998, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2011, leaders in in their first year can expect around a 7% gain when in opposition. 2016 was a loss of 0.7% which is eleven fold reduction.

*added columns together then divided net gain from chart above to give a %age

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 17:00 
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That feels like data that means something, now.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 17:00 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
That feels like data that means something, now.


You might want to check it though.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 18:02 
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This no platforming nonsense has gone too far!

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 18:06 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
That feels like data that means something, now.
Information!

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 18:07 
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http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... misleading

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 19:14 
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Hearthly wrote:

I believe this is what they call an iron fist in a velvet glove.

Aw, I really wasn't trying to be mean :( I'm sorry, I just think that Cavey's efforts would perhaps be recognised more if he posted something different, because all his posts get musged into one long rant when I try to read them, because if the repetition.

I try not to be mean to people when I post (apart from to Myp, partly because it's Myo, and partly because I luffs him so have to hold him to a higher level of expectation than most (I mean, he always fails my expectation, but he's getting better) and he gave me away at my wedding and so is essentially my dad.

But I try to be kind to people as much as I can, but sometimes it's hard to say how you feel without hurting someone unintentionally. Maybe I'm no good at saying awkward things though, because I once tackled the issue of a lad at uni with awful B.O. who was obviously in need of a shower by telling him that he actually had quite a nice natural scent but perhaps he didn't need quite so much of it.m

I still tell myself off for accidentally saying that about once or twice a month, and it was 15 years ago...

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 20:12 
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Hearthly wrote:
an iron fist in a velvet glove.


Sex tape.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 20:32 
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Mimi wrote:
Aw, I really wasn't trying to be mean :( I'm sorry, I just think that Cavey's efforts would perhaps be recognised more if he posted something different, because all his posts get musged into one long rant when I try to read them, because if the repetition.

I try not to be mean to people when I post (apart from to Myp, partly because it's Myo, and partly because I luffs him so have to hold him to a higher level of expectation than most (I mean, he always fails my expectation, but he's getting better) and he gave me away at my wedding and so is essentially my dad.


I honestly think it was a reasonable comment Mimi, I don't believe for one second your intention was to upset or hurt Cavey and I wouldn't wish to see such comment be made because I genuinely like the guy and truly believe him to be a thoroughly decent chap. (Although gawd knows we chucked our fair measure of crap at each other back in the old Fruit Forums days, but we're hopefully quite a lot older and maybe a little bit wiser now :D)

I ducked out of being political in this thread a fair while back now, because nothing much good seems to come of it, and no one's mind seems to get changed one iota about anything, although I do still read it because the folks here are interesting and intelligent, and I like reading what they have to say - even if in this case it is generally people from opposing sets of trenches chucking ordnance at each other (mainly graphs and pie-charts) with very little overall effect save for the occasional falling out.

Personally I think it's quite a tough time to be a left-leaning type, as many others have already given more comprehensive voice to than I can muster (Doc G's brief analysis here, for example - viewtopic.php?p=904278#p904278). I can imagine there's a lot to point and laugh at as a Conservative at the moment, but being a gracious winner can be just as endearing as being a gracious loser, and maybe it's the former that would be a better choice at the moment.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 10, 2016 15:44 
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Curiosity wrote:
I'm with Cavey on Nigeria.

Some parts of it are nice, others less so, and despite the prospering economy, there's a lot of corruption.

Not that there's no corruption over here; just nobody seems to care when it is done by our MPs. Weird.



Take a look at @BBCBreaking's Tweet: https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/ ... 07072?s=09

Oops

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 10, 2016 15:47 
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Hearthly wrote:
I ducked out of being political in this thread a fair while back now, because nothing much good seems to come of it, and no one's mind seems to get changed one iota about anything,


Welcome to the internet. You must be new here...


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 10, 2016 17:21 
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TheVision wrote:
Hearthly wrote:
I ducked out of being political in this thread a fair while back now, because nothing much good seems to come of it, and no one's mind seems to get changed one iota about anything,


Welcome to the internet. You must be new here...


Even by internet standards, I meant :)


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed May 11, 2016 8:49 
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One of the larger schools academies -- one which Cameron said had a "brilliant team" - has collapsed with significant evidence of corruption. Oops.

Quote:
The Perry Beeches trust’s financial difficulties, including debts estimated by one member of staff as reaching £1.8m and rising by tens of thousands of pounds each month, have deterred potential sponsors, meaning that the trust will probably be divided up and individual schools taken over by different sponsors.

...

[CEO/executive headteacher] Nolan resigned as the trust’s chief executive at Easter after a damning report on financial mismanagement by auditors from the Education Funding Agency (EFA), the DfE’s accounting watchdog, was published in March.

Following publication of the first report, EFA investigators have returned to the schools for a second inquiry. The investigators are said to be looking into the school’s hiring practices as well as issues over admissions and exclusions, and allegations of inappropriate use of funds including political donations.

Jon Hunt, a Liberal Democrat on Birmingham city council, said he had made a formal complaint to the Electoral Commission over the school’s involvement in sponsoring Labour party events.

One event was a fundraising dinner in 2014 for Gisela Stuart, the MP for Edgbaston, with Perry Beeches academy listed as a supporter on the invitations.

The EFA’s first report found that Nolan was paid an additional salary via a company named Nexus, which then made payments to another company, Liam Nolan Ltd, run by Nolan, in contravention of academies’ financial rules and Treasury guidelines.

Nolan’s company received £160,000 between 2013 and 2015 for Nolan’s services as Perry Beeches’s chief executive, the EFA reported. The payments were in addition to his salary as executive head.

The EFA investigation of Perry Beeches uncovered irregularities including nearly £1.3m in payments without contracts to Nexus as a third-party supplier. “No evidence of a formal procurement exercise, including quotations and tendering, was available for expenditure with Nexus,” the EFA report said.

A separate report by the EFA also found that more than £2.5m in free school meal (FSM) funding could not be confirmed because records had been erased. “The trust has breached the academies financial handbook by failing to retain any form of FSM eligibility evidence for a period of six years,” the EFA concluded.


A public institution given over into private control and then collapsing seconds later because the leaders are dipping their beaks? People awarding lucrative contracts to companies they control on the side with improper controls? Such cliché so stereotype wow. Why, it's almost like privatisation isn't a panacea after all!


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2016 11:27 
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Cavey wrote:
(In terms of my original post about Labour, I was more thinking of Livingstone's implosion - he is a major policy-making figure with gravitas, not x% or whatever - and Corbyn's very slow response to correct IMO)

Good job no major policy-making Tories are making gaffes about Hitler.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2016 13:31 
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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2016 14:00 
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There must be some sort of weird clause in the London Mayoral contract that causes you to make stupid statements about Hitler once you're out of office.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2016 12:55 
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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2016 12:57 
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MaliA wrote:

Definitely an interesting read.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2016 13:49 
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Lonewolves wrote:


I think it is stretching a point to one of ridiculousness. When I'm swinging over a pit with a whip then double jumping to grab the amulet of whatnot, in a game, I'm doing it for fun, not thinuking about the cultural resonance if such acts. It's highly unlikely that a game in which a young woman fights dinosaurs with 2 repeating pistols or zooms around Venice (in a highly disappointing follow up) in a motor launch, there's a higher purposeful narrative of "put it back where it belongs". The grauniad here is trying to hang an argument on a very thin nail. In CoD MW2 when I am mowing down the Chinese soldiers, it isn't out of racism, or shooting the passenger line in an airport terminal, it isn't out of annoyance that I am asked if I pack my own bag. It's a game. If you want to push it and call it art; then it is that and the Chinese had to die as did the airport people because it devices and motivations.

There's a huge over-think going on but one that is only one dimensional.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2016 13:53 
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MaliA wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:


I think it is stretching a point to one of ridiculousness. When I'm swinging over a pit with a whip then double jumping to grab the amulet of whatnot, in a game, I'm doing it for fun, not thinuking about the cultural resonance if such acts. It's highly unlikely that a game in which a young woman fights dinosaurs with 2 repeating pistols or zooms around Venice (in a highly disappointing follow up) in a motor launch, there's a higher purposeful narrative of "put it back where it belongs". The grauniad here is trying to hang an argument on a very thin nail. In CoD MW2 when I am mowing down the Chinese soldiers, it isn't out of racism, or shooting the passenger line in an airport terminal, it isn't out of annoyance that I am asked if I pack my own bag. It's a game. If you want to push it and call it art; then it is that and the Chinese had to die as did the airport people because it devices and motivations.

There's a huge over-think going on but one that is only one dimensional.

Umm, all right then.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2016 14:03 
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Gogmagog

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Lonewolves wrote:
MaliA wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:


I think it is stretching a point to one of ridiculousness. When I'm swinging over a pit with a whip then double jumping to grab the amulet of whatnot, in a game, I'm doing it for fun, not thinuking about the cultural resonance if such acts. It's highly unlikely that a game in which a young woman fights dinosaurs with 2 repeating pistols or zooms around Venice (in a highly disappointing follow up) in a motor launch, there's a higher purposeful narrative of "put it back where it belongs". The grauniad here is trying to hang an argument on a very thin nail. In CoD MW2 when I am mowing down the Chinese soldiers, it isn't out of racism, or shooting the passenger line in an airport terminal, it isn't out of annoyance that I am asked if I pack my own bag. It's a game. If you want to push it and call it art; then it is that and the Chinese had to die as did the airport people because it devices and motivations.

There's a huge over-think going on but one that is only one dimensional.

Umm, all right then.


It's OK. Not really directed at you, more the stupid turn the grauniad has taken. When it was just Burchhill I didn't mind being angry at her having column space. It was well written drivel Now, it seems to just stick piece after piece up with the same bollocks and it's more than one writer churning click bait bollocks out. They seem to ask any cunt with a tumblr account an instagram of puppies to write for them.I haven't even started what a prize thick twat I think Valenti is yet, either. What used to be well thought out well argued articles is now a race to the bottom of "who shall we feel a bit vondescendingly sorry for today and explain to others why we should feel this way" but written by a 16 year old who probably dots their i's with hearts.

For a once decent paper, it's terrible how low it has fallen.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2016 14:07 
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MaliA wrote:
but written by a 16 year old who probably dots their i's with hearts.


I really wasn't going to comment but L-LOL :DD
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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2016 14:10 
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MaliA wrote:
It's OK. Not really directed at you,

I often think about the ramifications of the media I consume - hence I would never see American Sniper for example. The article even states the reasons why we play these games and enjoy them. I don't think it was calling for us to stop or ban them.

I think it's ok to enjoy TV/games/movies with problematic elements, as long as you acknowledge them. You've gone a bit overboard in your apoplexy about this, imo.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 9:43 
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Corbyn more popular with members than ever: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blo ... itics-live

So basically he is unassailable as leader but also unelectable as PM, as Mandelson says here: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/j ... 1a329f4e11

Will be interesting to see what his critics in the PLP do next. I can't see how any efforts to oust him as leader will work at all.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 9:46 
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YouGov? They probably forgot to count the women, or something.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 10:08 
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:DD

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 10:21 
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I still think they'll be better off replacing Corbyn with someone else in the run up to the general election, but in the meantime he's a great choice for giving the party an identity and a backbone.

Replace him with someone a bit younger, with a bit more charisma, but someone who is still obviously in touch with the party's supposed ideological roots. I like Corbyn, but I'm unconvinced of his ability to be a proper statesman (or at least I'm unconvinced of his ability to appear to be that to a majority of voters).


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 11:21 
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And replace him with someone who doesn't want to see the human race wiped out by a meteor too. That'd be nice.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 11:55 
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Mr Dave wrote:
And replace him with someone who doesn't want to see the human race wiped out by a meteor too. That'd be nice.

He wants to see us wiped out by a meteor...?

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