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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:22 
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Cavey wrote:
STILL among the best growth rates in the EU


Uh..

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... wth-league

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:24 
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Cras wrote:
Cavey wrote:
STILL among the best growth rates in the EU


Uh..

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... wth-league


Q2 figures are only just coming out but they're not looking any better

https://www.theguardian.com/business/li ... iness-live

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:27 
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People have had enough of experts, Cras.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:41 
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Cras wrote:
Cavey wrote:
STILL among the best growth rates in the EU


Uh..

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... wth-league


"Uh..." indeed. More Guardian doom-monger spin and bullshit, talking the country down. It's almost like certain people fucking glory in, and hope for, our collective failure as a Nation, just so they can smugly prove some point that they were right.

Two things: The last quarter UK growth has been upgraded (as you know) and you entirely ignore the fact that the UK's growth massively outstrips the EU's in the immediate preceding three consecutive quarters, such that it is, at present at least, certainly true to say that UK growth compares favourably to comparable EU economies. That may change in the future (quite possibly if people keep talking us all down), but it isn't borne out by anything as of yet.

It's this cherry picking that I can't stand - let's hang everything on ONE quarter - an outlier - usually to suit and in response some tiresome, deep-rooted ideology or other. I was, and am still, the first person against Brexit but y'know, we are where we are now, we gotta get on with it. Endlessly pissing and whining, grasping every shred of shit news as supposedly more evidence that we're all fucked and/or some loony-left relic from the 70s (also anti-EU) is supposedly some great panacea, really isn't helping IMO.

(And of course, you entirely cherry picked economic growth in the first place, conveniently ignoring our 4.5% unemployment rate, as over, say, France at 11% and Spain at 20%... it's just all so bloody inconvenient, these pesky truths, right Cras? But then, zero hour contracts, basterd toreeees etc etc repeat to fade, right? )

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:42 
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Hearthly wrote:
People have had enough of experts, Cras.


With that endorsement, I rest my case! :D

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:47 
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Cavey,

Have you ever watched a friend get involved with a partner you really don't like and who behaves awfully towards them? Have you ever stood there watching them and found yourself thinking 'what does he see in them? why doesn't he end this?' as things get messier and messier?

That's kind of how I feel about Brexit. Right now, I can't see any good coming out of this, other than an EEA solution where we end up almost back to what we've currently got.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:50 
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@Kern

I hate Brexit, as I've said all along, am still am. This Tory administration is a laughable shit-show, again as I've said.

Brexit is happening, though, and despite all this we still have a chance to make it work (after a fashion) and SOME good stuff MAY come out as well as the bad. I'm a glass half full type of person and we gotta roll our sleeves up and crack on, despite wishing like fuck things were different, I know I do. But endlessly pissing and moaning, talking everyone down, isn't the answer

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:53 
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They have made some FECKING good fighter planes though, and with far less national infrastructure and bribes to help them than, say, BAe who still can't make anything worth buying.
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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:53 
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WHOOSH, PEW PEW PEW PEW

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:57 
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I ignored the unemployment figure because we've had that argument before. You think zero hours contracts don't matter because they're jobs, myself and others disagree and think including them makes the unemployment figures disingenuous. There's no point retreading the same ground.

I've not cherry picked facts at all. Those two articles are Q1 and Q2 UK economic growth compared to the rest of Europe. When considering our current trajectory I can't possibly imagine more relevant data - and the Q2 figures linked by me above are after the upgrade that you mentioned.

You said we are leading economic growth in Europe, for the last two quarters we've done the exact opposite.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:03 
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Also, please don't go down the route of "Brexit is happening, we all have to get behind it and make it a success instead of talking the UK down". That's not how you deal with bad politics.

When Blair took us into Iraq, should the Stop The War coalition have said "The invasion is happening, guess we should support it instead of talking the UK down"

When Brown (by your rhetoric) loosened banking regulation, should we all have said "deregulation is happening, we should all be positive about the banking sector instead of talking the UK down" in 2006?

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:06 
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Cavey wrote:
endlessly pissing and moaning, talking everyone down, isn't the answer


100% disagree Cavey with both the categorisation of a fair warning about the problems and reporting of facts being classed as "pissing and moaning" and the fact that somehow that is not the answer.

First example I can think of but I know there's plenty more - Hillsborough Families - dismissed as "pissing and moaning" for decades but they didn't give up in light of the fact that people on the other side, (or even their own side at times) thought they were being whiny.

In fact it's "pissing and moaning" by the tabloid press about the EU that is a significant factor in where we are now.

You sound like Liam Fox declaring that the BBC should be more pro-Brexit because, er, patriotism.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:09 
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Cras wrote:
I ignored the unemployment figure because we've had that argument before. You think zero hours contracts don't matter because they're jobs, myself and others disagree and think including them makes the unemployment figures disingenuous. There's no point retreading the same ground.

I've not cherry picked facts at all. Those two articles are Q1 and Q2 UK economic growth compared to the rest of Europe. When considering our current trajectory I can't possibly imagine more relevant data - and the Q2 figures linked by me above are after the upgrade that you mentioned.

You said we are leading economic growth in Europe, for the last two quarters we've done the exact opposite.


But that's clearly bullshit. The last ONE quarter (still in growth, now uprated) shows lower growth than EU as a whole, but the immediately preceding three show the precise opposite, so the aggregate for the last four quarters is still very much in UK's favour. How you can sit there with a straight face and tell me you're not cherry picking is beyond me (and indeed, plain wrong in the most fundamental way imaginable, as according to even your own posted Guardian piece), but I've come to the conclusion you actually believe it. You make yourself believe it.

Doesn't change the immutable facts though I'm afraid, Cras.

(As for the zero hours thing, you very disingenuously and entirely distort my position on that, too, unsurprisingly. I have merely stated, factually btw, that so-called zero hours contracts represent a tiny proportion of total employment in the UK, 2-3% IIRC(?), so whatever the whys and wherefores, and especially since at least some of those will be 'good' contracts/terms and/or with people who actively want such flexible employments, it can be said that their actual import on overall very favourable UK employment rates is demonstrably very low, laying waste the whole "it's all zero hours contracts innit" default-response of you and your ilk to justifiable praise in dramatically low unemployment. Best kind of correct etc. ;) )

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:35 
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Why do you keep saying one quarter? I posted Q1 and Q2 results.

Q1 was when we actually issued article 50. Prior to that Brexit was theoretical, so I don't see how I'm not thoroughly justified in viewing Q1 and Q2 2017 as indicative of the economic direction rather than the preceding three quarters.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:51 
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Cras wrote:
Why do you keep saying one quarter?


Because there is only one in the piece you posted, Q1 2017?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... wth-league

Quote:
I posted Q1 and Q2 results.


No, the Guardian piece that you linked to in your "Uh.." response states only Q1 (and is wrong btw, Q1=+0.3%, as you know of course). Do you re-read your old posts?
You subsequently linked to a Guardian live feed suggesting a further +0.3%(?) UK Q2 provisional growth rate, which isn't even firm yet, and mere minutes old? Fuck me, you really *can't wait* can you, rubbing your paws with glee. :roll: Remember, though, that even an aggregate growth of +0.6% for Q1 and Q2 is hardly the the end of all things as we know it (especially when combined with aforementioned full employment, historically low inflation and sky high share prices)

Quote:
Q1 was when we actually issued article 50. Prior to that Brexit was theoretical, so I don't see how I'm not thoroughly justified in viewing Q1 and Q2 2017 as indicative of the economic direction rather than the preceding three quarters.


Erm, Brexit was a reality from Q3 and Q4 last year, both showing absolutely stonking UK gowth, including as over our EU competitors, and we're still ahead in aggregate terms, complete with much lower unemployment etc. in the majority of cases etc etc. But youy ignore all the good and only take the bad, because it suits your held-since-the-dawn-of-Man argument/ideology. It's not so much cherry picking as defying the Second Law of Thermodynamics.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:59 
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See my post immediately after - Q2 results from this morning.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:01 
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8)

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:02 
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I don't know what to say. If you think 2016 results are more of an indicator than 2017 I guess there's not a lot more discussion to be had.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:03 
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Cras wrote:
I don't know what to say. If you think 2016 results are more of an indicator than 2017 I guess there's not a lot more discussion to be had.


:DD
Priceless.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:04 
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Ah, apologies on the former, misread your post. That data being from just this morning doesn't make it inaccurate. It's published data for Q2, it's not subject to change.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:07 
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Presumably you can at least admit that in 2017, we are far from having 'still among the strongest growth in the EU' as you stated in your post?
I acknowledge that I'm looking at growth in isolation, because as I said we've disagreed on unemployment and aren't going to find our way to agreement. You made an assertion about growth though that is categorically contradicted by the figures.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:20 
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Cras wrote:
Presumably you can at least admit that in 2017, we are far from having 'still among the strongest growth in the EU' as you stated in your post?
I acknowledge that I'm looking at growth in isolation, because as I said we've disagreed on unemployment and aren't going to find our way to agreement. You made an assertion about growth though that is categorically contradicted by the figures.


I made my assertion as based on post-Brexit 2016 Q2,3,4 and 2017 Q1 UK growth (and taking other factors into account like our much lower unemployment rate etc., which I'm sorry, does come into it also for me, this is a holistic picture). It's beyond dispute that Q2, Q3 and Q4 were all massively good, far outweighing the weaker, but still well in growth revised upwards 2017 Q1 +0.3%. I feel entirely comfortable that the UK growth arithmetic mean for the 12 months 2016 Q2 to 2017 Q1 compares favourably to the EU - hence I believe my basic assertion is [was] valid.

Now, mere minutes ago, Q2 provisional growth data is available (I am not a banker so I don't have this news feed I'm afraid ;) ), which weakens the assertion, certainly (UK only +0.3% again), but we're still in growth despite everything, all as against an employment picture that is inarguably better than most of our EU peers. As I've mentioned, France is in double digits and Spain is 20% FFS, so their "growth" is from an awfully low base, economically and literally/morally, in social contract terms?

So I'm happy to concede the very latest info weakens the argument :) but it's still arguable. I still maintain it's very risky to infer too much by way of "trajectory" or anything else much, as on a tiny data sample of 1 or 2 quarters.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:21 
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Let's revisit this in 6 months

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:22 
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!remindme 90 days UK growth (fuck knows - I can't remember how that works)

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:22 
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Err, 180 days

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:22 
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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:23 
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Although I appear to have failed to restart the bot since the server move.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:48 
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RemindGrim...! Restart the bot


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:51 
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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:52 
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Heh. Well, I don't possess a time machine (yet... am working on it, better have alcantara seats ;) )

I don't do Twitter but someone just nudged me towards a tweet made a couple of days back by Andrew Neil deriding the Guardian doom-sayers...

Quote:
New IMF growth for 2017: UK 1.7%, > France (1.5%), Italy (1.3%), just below Germany (1.8%). Guardian: makes us "sick man of Europe". Bizarre


https://twitter.com/afneil/status/889452489912848384




... Which is quite amusing I guess. :D

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:54 
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zaphod79 wrote:
RemindGrim...! Restart the bot

I have ;)

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 14:03 
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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 14:28 
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I can't help thinking the local paper knew they were going to get these kinds of responses...
Attachment:
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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 14:34 
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Quote:
What do you want Brexit to mean for migration?


So I can get on a train or aeroplane and go live, study, work, and play wherever the hell I like, without visas, work permits, red tape, or other tedious faff.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 14:40 
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Mr Dave wrote:
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What Babe?

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The babe with


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 14:42 
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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 14:54 
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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 14:56 
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Don't think I've had that one. Beavertown are pretty good normally though.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 14:59 
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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 15:08 
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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 15:24 
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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 15:36 
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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 15:49 
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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 15:59 
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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 19:04 
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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 23:31 
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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 23:53 
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I am confused by the last page of this thread.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2017 4:55 
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Jem wrote:
I am confused by the last page of this thread.


Glad it's not just me... :D

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2017 7:05 
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Jem wrote:
I am confused by the last page of this thread.

I... I think you have to leave the forum.

Or watch this... right now.

http://m.imdb.com/title/tt0091369/

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 7:16 
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https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/892427609711267840




Corbyn's ex spokesman, there.

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You are using the 'Ted' forum. Bill doesn't really exist any more. Bogus!
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RIP, Owen. RIP, MrC.

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