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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 16:34 
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The failures already seem extremely well-documented and constantly-highlighted, which is what's really upsetting me about the whole thing.

What's making me angry is politicians making wafty "we will investigate to understand what went wrong" statements from about 3 seconds in.

Either be honest or decline to make a statement, don't be a stereotypically weasally fucking *politician* about it, especially *while it's still happening*.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 19:06 
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MrChris wrote:
I think the Queen did that deliberately, Kern - May has not endeared herself to Brenda recently apparently.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 7:46 
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From four years ago.....

Quote:
The Government is "waging war against the excessive health and safety culture that has become an albatross around the neck of British businesses", said the PM.


Prime Minister David Cameron today said that his new year's resolution was to "kill off the health and safety culture for good".

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 85238.html


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 21:55 
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I like this guy.



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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:17 
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Watched the first 10 seconds.
Heads up: Jeremy Corbyn didn't win the election; he lost it. Very badly.

It's simply that expectations were so low, falling short of a Parliamentary majority by 60 odd seats, thereby not a cat in hells chance of getting a sniff of being anywhere near government, is seen as a 'victory' - and all this as against a Tory election campaign that was the worst in living memory. As I said, any sensible non-swiveleyed Labour Party/Leader such as David Miliband talking of aspiration instead of free unicorns etc would've walked it.

I really hate to be the one to break the news but, actually, very little indeed has changed - we still have a Tory government in place?

Interesting to see shares soaring and the pound steady upon the start of Brexit negotiations also.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:36 
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Ha ha fucking hell, still trying to gloat, even now! That's some fucking chutzpah!


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:40 
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But I think your assertion is questionable to begin with. If it was a choice between Tories and Tory-lite then I think that they would still have a majority. I don't think that younger voters would have even bothered.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:47 
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Now, I'm more aligned with Labour than the Conservatives, I read the Guardian, and I like how May and her team have been given a right bloody nose; I do however feel that while, yes it was an expectation defying result, the reactions on the left have been a little over the top and the celebrations a little unwarranted perhaps. Labour came out way stronger than expected and the Conservatives massively diminished, of course, but that's not really a win - it's significant progress - there is far far more to be done and the UK is still in for one hell of a rough, uncertain ride.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:43 
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I was wondering if everyone had seen a different set of election results to me. Turns out after going to a wedding at the weekend on a farm that not everyone had :)

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:44 
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markg wrote:
Ha ha fucking hell, still trying to gloat, even now! That's some fucking chutzpah!


Nah, just stating uncomfortable truths. I'm very far from gloating I assure you, the Tories should have *walked* this, given the (ahem) quality of their opposition. That they did not, and in fact scraped home by the barest of (Scottish) margins isn't cause for celebration, but relief on my part.

Notwithstanding, the more idiotic elements of the Far Left trumpeting a dismal second and 60-odd seats short as a "victory" tells its own story, I guess. I mean, it's all a very far cry from the halcyon days, still less than a decade ago, with three landslides chalked up on the bounce, right? Still, we all still remember how that panned out, which probably explains the grasping of the flimsiest of straws now. Not so much green shoots of recovery, more like a tinge of moss. :D

Labour lost, and lost badly. Fact.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:50 
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markg wrote:
But I think your assertion is questionable to begin with. If it was a choice between Tories and Tory-lite then I think that they would still have a majority. I don't think that younger voters would have even bothered.


:this:

Demographics will do for the Tories, their support base is literally dying of old age, and I don't think they'll be replaced as younger people move into middle age and middle aged people move into old age. (Because those people have not enjoyed all the one-time-only benefits that the baby boomers have been the recipients of.)

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/13/ho ... -election/

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:56 
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:DD

Trouble is, of course, people (well, most people ;) ) get wiser with age, and tend towards small c Conservativism as they get older. It stands to reason; people see more of life and gather knowledge and experience (plus, they have more to lose, and they'll remember first hand the disastrous outcomes of previous Labour governments directly). So the simplistic idealism of youth is gradually supplanted by a wiser pragmatism. So basically, I don't see the Tories' sensible, intelligent and pragmatic voter base dying off any time soon. Good grief... :D

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:09 
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Latest polls show Labour ahead now.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:15 
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Bear in mind the context-those labour voters celebrating the most loudly are those who want nothing to do with the new labour years, and who wouldn't compare anything to them. Right wing travesty, Blair, blah blah. So this for them is a vindication of picking a left wing position, and a suggestion that if they can defy predictions here, then they have something to build on. It's absolutely essential to them that the Labour Party actually mean something leftist, not just be a watered down version of the Tories. The latter seemed the only way to sneak a few lefty ideas in, now they're hoping it wasn't. But even if it isn't true, they feel they're getting their party back. Much division, though, still plenty of blairites left, and I can't see the two sides' quest for power ending well.

If it were a sports match, every commentator would be (tediously) banging on about how the momentum (ha!) is with Labour now, regardless of the score.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:16 
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Cavey wrote:
:DD

Trouble is, of course, people (well, most people ;) ) get wiser with age, and tend towards small c Conservativism as they get older. It stands to reason; people see more of life and gather knowledge and experience (plus, they have more to lose, and they'll remember first hand the disastrous outcomes of previous Labour governments directly). So the simplistic idealism of youth is gradually supplanted by a wiser pragmatism. So basically, I don't see the Tories' sensible, intelligent and pragmatic voter base dying off any time soon. Good grief... :D

By and large the Tories voter base also voted for fucking Brexit. Not sure how sensible, intelligent and pragmatic that makes them tbh.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:24 
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Cavey wrote:
:DD

Trouble is, of course, people (well, most people ;) ) get wiser with age, and tend towards small c Conservativism as they get older. It stands to reason; people see more of life and gather knowledge and experience (plus, they have more to lose, and they'll remember first hand the disastrous outcomes of previous Labour governments directly). So the simplistic idealism of youth is gradually supplanted by a wiser pragmatism. So basically, I don't see the Tories' sensible, intelligent and pragmatic voter base dying off any time soon. Good grief... :D


Because of course all sensible and pragmatic people vote Tory, and the people on this board are all teenagers.

People are starting to see that ideological austerity that is designed to widen the gap between the rich and the poor is a bad choice. Looking at recent tragic events and seeing that axing support to the police, to firefighters, to doctors and nurses, and to people who are just trying to live their lives without getting burned to death is a bad thing. All signs point that if another election was called tomorrow then Labour would likely get a majority.

Now, they obviously didn't win. Lost, in fact. But vote share and total votes went up; it just also went up for the Tories as UKIP fell away to nothing, and the SNP were massively cut in Scotland. But it might bring back onside the moderates, and their influence on Corbyn could result in something very electable. Depends what the Tories do. But at the moment they are having an absolute disaster on Brexit, and May is now very unpopular.

It's the same old, same old. Labour get in, build up the state, people feel less reliant on it and on them, people vote Tory, Tories dismantle welfare state, people get angry, people vote Labour, etc.

Oh for a sensible centrist option.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:25 
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Cavey wrote:
. I mean, it's all a very far cry from the halcyon days, still less than a decade ago, with three landslides chalked up on the bounce, right? .


Both parties got a higher share of the vote than Labour did in 2005. Thanks for the disproportionate outocmes, First-Past-the-Post.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:41 
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Kern wrote:
Cavey wrote:
. I mean, it's all a very far cry from the halcyon days, still less than a decade ago, with three landslides chalked up on the bounce, right? .


Both parties got a higher share of the vote than Labour did in 2005. Thanks for the disproportionate outocmes, First-Past-the-Post.


A good part of that is down to the Lib Dem meltdown, of course.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:20 
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I think there is a very good chance that this coming parliament will go down as a disastrous outcome to outclass all previous disastrous outcomes, at least in living memory of a decent chunk of the electorate. I think Brexit, the way it seems to be going, stands a good chance of being the poll tax, winter of discontent and financial crash all rolled into one, and utterly self-inflicted. And I also don't see much small-c conservatism in the current government - they're charging headlong into a purely ideological approach to this without a clue what they're doing, swinging wildly in the dark, purely because they're scared of their back benchers and the Daily Mail.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:44 
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https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/j ... ns-prisons

Quote:
"Caring for inmates with dementia can be distressing for officers, as well as fellow prisoners. One officer, who asked to remain anonymous, had such a prisoner on his wing. Overnight, every night, the prisoner would forget that he was guilty of any crime and wake, expecting to be in his own bed, at home. Every morning, the officer had to allocate extra time to gently break the news to him yet again that he was in prison, why and for how long. It was, the officer said, deeply upsetting – not just for the prisoner, but for him, too. 'Of course this prisoner should be punished for his crime,' the officer said. 'But his condition meant his punishment was many times worse than a prisoner without dementia. I ended up feeling that he was going through something closer to torture than to civilised punishment. It didn’t seem humane and it didn’t seem fair.'"


Christ, that's bloody terrible.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:57 
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Worse, it sounds like an Adam Sandler film


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:56 

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Cavey wrote:
Interesting to see shares soaring and the pound steady upon the start of Brexit negotiations also.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:07 
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That could be a fluctuating dollar that causes that, though. MOAR GRAFZ are needed.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:10 
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I'm not sure why the markets would react to the start of Brexit negotiations anyway, it was something that has been scheduled to happen for months.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:12 
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Grim... wrote:
That could be a fluctuating dollar that causes that, though. MOAR GRAFZ are needed.


Against the Euro;

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:15 
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markg wrote:
I'm not sure why the markets would react to the start of Brexit negotiations anyway, it was something that has been scheduled to happen for months.


I think it's the fact that some small measure of economic stability has been predicated on us at least having a slight modicum of skill in negotiation.

Us wandering out of the first meeting having backed the fuck down on just about everything we banged the desk about indicates a government in a weak position.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:15 
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It looks bad, but that's about half a penny. Is that bad? It doesn't strike me as bad.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:26 
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Quote:
The sterling ERI has fallen close to 20% from its November 2015 peak. Since then, UK-focused equity prices have fallen by over 2%. In contrast, broader equity price indices such as the FTSE 100 and S&P 500, which more heavily reflect global economic considerations, are almost 20% and 40% higher respectively (in sterling terms). UK 10-year real government bond yields have fallen 115 basis points; by contrast 10-year real government bond yields in the US are down by around 25 basis points only


Said the bank guy, and he went on

Quote:
Markets have already anticipated some of the adjustment. Depending on whether and when any transition arrangement can be agreed, firms on either side of the channel may soon need to activate contingency plans. Before long, we will all begin to find out the extent to which Brexit is a gentle stroll along a smooth path to a land of cake and consumption

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:26 
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Grim... wrote:
It looks bad, but that's about half a penny. Is that bad? It doesn't strike me as bad.

That's the thing isn't it. Look at that same graph over a 2 month period and today might not even be a blip.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:28 
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For example. Here's a month of data
Attachment:
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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:29 
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And that entire graph covers 5 cents


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:35 
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Cavey wrote:
Trouble is, of course, people (well, most people ;) ) get wiser with age, and tend towards small c Conservativism as they get older. It stands to reason; people see more of life and gather knowledge and experience (plus, they have more to lose, and they'll remember first hand the disastrous outcomes of previous Labour governments directly). So the simplistic idealism of youth is gradually supplanted by a wiser pragmatism. So basically, I don't see the Tories' sensible, intelligent and pragmatic voter base dying off any time soon. Good grief... :D


See, I don't think this is true at all. I don't think people trend conservative as they get older, I think conservative voters are ageing. The big tory voter block is now those people who remember the (disastrous) labour government of the 1970s. You're not seeing gen X start going from Labour to Conservative, it's just not happening. The Conservative party has some real thinking to do about how it takes itself forward. IMO it needs to kick the rancid old hardliners to the curb and form a new, sensibly right of centre pro-business party. Pretending that 2017 is the same as 1980 is killing the party and the country.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:38 
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The 25-34 age group saw a massive swing towards Labour since 2015.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 13:01 
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Cras wrote:
Cavey wrote:
Trouble is, of course, people (well, most people ;) ) get wiser with age, and tend towards small c Conservativism as they get older. It stands to reason; people see more of life and gather knowledge and experience (plus, they have more to lose, and they'll remember first hand the disastrous outcomes of previous Labour governments directly). So the simplistic idealism of youth is gradually supplanted by a wiser pragmatism. So basically, I don't see the Tories' sensible, intelligent and pragmatic voter base dying off any time soon. Good grief... :D


See, I don't think this is true at all. I don't think people trend conservative as they get older, I think conservative voters are ageing. The big tory voter block is now those people who remember the (disastrous) labour government of the 1970s. You're not seeing gen X start going from Labour to Conservative, it's just not happening. The Conservative party has some real thinking to do about how it takes itself forward. IMO it needs to kick the rancid old hardliners to the curb and form a new, sensibly right of centre pro-business party. Pretending that 2017 is the same as 1980 is killing the party and the country.

I think that whatever they do their Brexit mess is going to cast a long shadow. The younger generation overwhelmingly didn't want it and they will remember this government with about the same level of fondness cavey has for Labour.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 13:20 
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Related to the above few posts

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 98386.html

Quote:
Conservative voters dying out at rate of 2% per year, Lord Heseltine warns

‘One thing which is just worth having in mind: 2 per cent of the older part of the electorate die every year - they are 70 per cent Conservative’


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 13:25 
Filthy Junkie Bitch

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Cras wrote:
You're not seeing gen X start going from Labour to Conservative, it's just not happening. The Conservative party has some real thinking to do about how it takes itself forward. IMO it needs to kick the rancid old hardliners to the curb and form a new, sensibly right of centre pro-business party. Pretending that 2017 is the same as 1980 is killing the party and the country.

I think that statement needs some clarification. You're not seeing Gen X start going from Labour to this Conservative. Referendum aside, Cameron did pretty well out of the Yoot (sufficiently enough in 2015 in any event). If the ref hadn't happened (or, had come in as the correct answer), and Cameron had then called the 2017 election anyway, I've a feeling he would have deliverered the majority that everyone thought May would have now.

The issue is with this Conservative party though. I can't realistically see May or any of the current shitballoons who are tipped for leader (with the notable exception of Ruth Davidson, who can be PM even as an MSP, but this isn't going to happen soon) ever making any form of progress in this area. Maybe, maybe Hammond could if his recent noisiness is a push for the top job, and he could have a reasonable change as a Major-esque candidate, but I can't see him having the desire for doing that.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 14:28 
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I think Cavey's right on a historical basis, I reckon that previously as people have aged they do tend to become more conservative - I attribute this to them finally getting "sorted" in terms of property, career, kids etc. and not really wanting to give away too much of their hard earned income.

However, the generations that are ageing now are of the ilk that are increasingly unlikely to ever really get much of a foot on the property ladder, or get a decently paid job, or have much in terms of prospects. So they're probably going to stay closer to Labour's ideals.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 14:55 
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Cras wrote:
The Conservative party has some real thinking to do about how it takes itself forward. IMO it needs to kick the rancid old hardliners to the curb and form a new, sensibly right of centre pro-business party. Pretending that 2017 is the same as 1980 is killing the party and the country.


E.g. maybe think about not making a deal with the DUP?


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 15:19 
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GazChap wrote:
However, the generations that are ageing now are of the ilk that are increasingly unlikely to ever really get much of a foot on the property ladder, or get a decently paid job, or have much in terms of prospects.


In Shoreditch's Box Village there's a ball pit for grown ups. Millennials deserve that future.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 15:24 
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MaliA wrote:
GazChap wrote:
However, the generations that are ageing now are of the ilk that are increasingly unlikely to ever really get much of a foot on the property ladder, or get a decently paid job, or have much in terms of prospects.


In Shoreditch's Box Village there's a ball pit for grown ups. Millennials deserve that future.


And that Flight Club place can get to fuck and all.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 15:25 
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MaliA wrote:
MaliA wrote:
GazChap wrote:
However, the generations that are ageing now are of the ilk that are increasingly unlikely to ever really get much of a foot on the property ladder, or get a decently paid job, or have much in terms of prospects.


In Shoreditch's Box Village there's a ball pit for grown ups. Millennials deserve that future.


And that Flight Club place can get to fuck and all.


Bull in a China shop was ok, though.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 15:41 
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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 15:44 
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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 15:45 
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Gogmagog

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Squirt wrote:
Betfair are currently giving 13/8 on their being another General Election in 2017.


I miss the betfair twitter account.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 15:57 
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Commander-in-Cheese

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GazChap wrote:
I think Cavey's right on a historical basis, I reckon that previously as people have aged they do tend to become more conservative - I attribute this to them finally getting "sorted" in terms of property, career, kids etc. and not really wanting to give away too much of their hard earned income.

However, the generations that are ageing now are of the ilk that are increasingly unlikely to ever really get much of a foot on the property ladder, or get a decently paid job, or have much in terms of prospects. So they're probably going to stay closer to Labour's ideals.


Small-c conservative, you're probably right. But I think the idea that people switch from being labour voters to conservative voters somewhere in their thirties is insane.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 16:17 
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Gogmagog

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Cras wrote:
GazChap wrote:
I think Cavey's right on a historical basis, I reckon that previously as people have aged they do tend to become more conservative - I attribute this to them finally getting "sorted" in terms of property, career, kids etc. and not really wanting to give away too much of their hard earned income.

However, the generations that are ageing now are of the ilk that are increasingly unlikely to ever really get much of a foot on the property ladder, or get a decently paid job, or have much in terms of prospects. So they're probably going to stay closer to Labour's ideals.


Small-c conservative, you're probably right. But I think the idea that people switch from being labour voters to conservative voters somewhere in their thirties is insane.


Yes, I think​ people become more pragmatic about what can and cannot be done, and things are viewed through a more self centered lens.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 16:18 
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Isn't that lovely?

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Squirt wrote:
Betfair are currently giving 13/8 on their being another General Election in 2017.


Is that from insider knowledge or from just looking on though?

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:17 
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Brenda normally sounds bored when she reads the speech. I bet today she's going to sound bored and irritated.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:46 
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Dennis Skinner: 'Get yer skates on - first race is half past two'

Charlie's there too, I see. Must be take-your-son-to-work day.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:47 
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Gogmagog

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Superb

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