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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:36 
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superdupergill wrote:
(thats why grim.... is so eager you tell us, cos he's a baddy.)

I'm the only person (beside you now) saying that there are issues for him doing so. I explained to everyone why it might not be a bad idea. I am one of several people who have said they think it's probably a good idea (especially if the name is mine).

You do read the posts before going nuts on your keyboard, yeah?

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:36 
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I think the whole thing with Russ is just baloney to be honest. I don't want him to say what he "knows" because I wouldn't believe it for a minute and it would set you headless chickens off chasing your own tails.

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:36 
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baron of techno

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LOL @ Gill :kiss:


Re Russell's info - I don't see what's to lose by revealing one person as a confirmed guest. As I said once (in a dream) - it gives us someone we can trust to hold an unbiased opinion.

For example they can say whether they think SDG is on the money or not. Because personally I'm not sure it's adding up to more than a hunch.


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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:37 
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[edit]Might be a bad idea, not might not be.

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:37 
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Isn't that lovely?

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Malc wrote:
Craster wrote:
Mr Russell wrote:
The serial killer doesn't know who the guest is, and if that's the bride or groom or best man, we could lose.


Ah, that's a point. Whoever Russell names will automatically get hit by the SK, you'd think.


It's not really changing the odds much tho is it?

Malc


From looking at the rules, if the ex kills randomly she has a 1 in 11 chance of killing the bride, if russell names the guest, by killing that person they have a between 1 in 10 to 1 in 7 chance

That's 9.1% for guessing randomly to between 10% (if only 1 crasher) through 11.1 (2 crashers), 12.5 (3) to 14.3 (4 crashers).

Malc

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:39 
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Isn't that lovely?

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That's 9.1% for guessing randomly to between 10% (if only 1 crasher) through 11.1% (2 crashers), 12.5% (3) to 14.3% (4 crashers).

Added percentages as I can't edit my post.

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:40 
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Right, but hang on - does Russell know the ROLE of the person or just whether they have the wedded bliss win condition?


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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:41 
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What's this bit for exactly?

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Im torn... I kind of see SDG's point, and think she may be onto something, so...
[vote: Grim...]
I can see the argument for Cras too, but getting 2 up close & seeing what shakes loose is better than bandwaggon-ing someone right now i think.
Remember folks - we really really need to get one right now...


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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:42 
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kalmar wrote:
Re Russell's info - I don't see what's to lose by revealing one person as a confirmed guest. As I said once (in a dream) - it gives us someone we can trust to hold an unbiased opinion.

Only assuming we trust Russell, which we really shouldn't. If he actually knew a plain vanilla guest, he'd have said it by now. If he knew a "special" top table good guy, he wouldn't/shouldn't have said anything.

If he does say anything, ignore it.

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:42 
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VOTE UPDATE

grim...: 3 (Craster, superdupergill, Mr Dom)
craster: 5 (TheAlbin0Kid, kalmar, Grim..., Mr Russell, Mr Chris)

Not voted: 4 (myp, kovacsc, malc, runcle)

With 12 players alive, 7 votes are required for a lynch, and 9 nolynch votes are required to not lynch anybody.

http://www.beexcellenttoeachother.com/counter/

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:44 
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TheAlbin0Kid wrote:
kalmar wrote:
Re Russell's info - I don't see what's to lose by revealing one person as a confirmed guest. As I said once (in a dream) - it gives us someone we can trust to hold an unbiased opinion.

Only assuming we trust Russell, which we really shouldn't.

God has said that he picked something up.

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:45 
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But Mr Russel could lie about who it is..



I think he should disclose it!!

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:45 
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Isn't that lovely?

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kalmar wrote:
Right, but hang on - does Russell know the ROLE of the person or just whether they have the wedded bliss win condition?


Russell has the wedding planers list, which has one name on it.

This is the wedding planner's role bit:

Quote:
0-1 Wedding Planner

You are the Wedding Planner, and you're a little scatterbrained. You can't remember exactly who should be at the wedding and who shouldn't, but between courses you can slip out and check the guest list. PM the person running the game between courses and you will be told if the guest you're checking out has been invited, or if they are a Wedding Crasher. Your win condition is Wedded Bliss.


Everyone apart from the crashers have been invited (although the rules don't make it clear wether the ex is a guest or not, but that's hardly important to the ex as she's not going to kill herself!)

Malc

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:46 
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Grim... wrote:
[edit]Might be a bad idea, not might not be.


No edits!

Bad Grim...

Also, for clarification, the game ends either when all primary win conditions are decided, or at the end of Course 6.

Which means there are potentially 5 lynches remaining (including today).

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:47 
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Curiosity wrote:
Grim... wrote:
[edit]Might be a bad idea, not might not be.


No edits!

Bad Grim...

Um, I did that instead of editing..?

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:49 
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Oh, duh, the rules. Read them.


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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:51 
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I have. That's why I didn't edit my original post, but put a correction in the next one.

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:52 
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No, I mean me, re the wedding planner's ability.


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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:53 
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Quote:
0-1 Wedding Planner

You are the Wedding Planner, and you're a little scatterbrained. You can't remember exactly who should be at the wedding and who shouldn't, but between courses you can slip out and check the guest list. PM the person running the game between courses and you will be told if the guest you're checking out has been invited, or if they are a Wedding Crasher. Your win condition is Wedded Bliss.

Joans was poisoned after course zero. He will have been fed one piece of information overnight, but won't have had chance to post it anywhere as a hint. Do we really trust this explanation that Russ just PMed Curiosity and said "See that paper Joans has dropped, can I pick it up?" and Curiosity said "yes"? Or do we believe Russ is just making stuff up to throw us off?

H4nl0n's R4z0r peoples!!!

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:54 
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Dude, Curiosity said that's what happened.

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:54 
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See:
viewtopic.php?p=321475#p321475

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:55 
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TheAlbin0Kid wrote:
Do we really trust this explanation that Russ just PMed Curiosity and said "See that paper Joans has dropped, can I pick it up?" and Curiosity said "yes"? Or do we believe Russ is just making stuff up to throw us off?

H4nl0n's R4z0r peoples!!!


The simplest explanation is the one that Curiosity has explained is true. There is no doubt at all about that - he picked it up, he knows a name.


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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:56 
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So you're all trusting Curiosity? :DD

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:56 
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Doofus :)

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I wish Craster had left some girls for the rest of us.


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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:57 
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INFINITE POWAH

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{vote: 5P@ck20rK1D}

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Last edited by kalmar on Wed Oct 14, 2009 13:58, edited 1 time in total.
don't break the vote counter!


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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 14:01 
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This still all assumes that Russ is a good guy. If he's a crasher, he won't tell us the truth if he ever does speak up. My bet is right now him and Craster and any other crashers are working out who he should name, trying to decide whether we will believe the information and they can risk trying to pass off one of the crashers as a guest, or whether we will call bs on it and automatically target the named person and/or Russ.

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 14:03 
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In that case, he can't win, and should keep it to himself, only shouting it out when there are a few votes to go.

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 14:05 
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TheAlbin0Kid wrote:
This still all assumes that Russ is a good guy. If he's a crasher, he won't tell us the truth if he ever does speak up. My bet is right now him and Craster and any other crashers are working out who he should name, trying to decide whether we will believe the information and they can risk trying to pass off one of the crashers as a guest, or whether we will call bs on it and automatically target the named person and/or Russ.


V0rl0n's r4z0r though dude. It's an elaborate and risky bluff if you're right, so I think the simpler explanation that he's actually telling the truth is more likely.


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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 14:05 
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Grim... wrote:
In that case, he can't win, and should keep it to himself, only shouting it out when there are a few votes to go.

Doesn't that look like exactly what they have decided? (until this dialogue forces his hand, obviously)

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 14:22 
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Ooooh, you can almost hear the whooshing of the PMs as they fly back and forth!

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 15:23 
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So. Anyone come up with anything new?

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 15:25 
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Craster and Russ, and possibly you. And possibly Kalmar and Mr Chris still. And the quiet ones.

:D

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 15:26 
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Grim... wrote:
I was suspicious of you and albino because of what you were saying, not because you were saying stuff. I had no reason to vote for anybody because (a) I was going to be around for quite a while, so there was no hurry, and (b) because I wasn't hugely convinced by anything I was saying.
Also, you've got some facts mixed up there.
1) "Grim...s reaction was to ask why I was voting for the quiet people" - I actually said "Not going for the quiet people any more, SDG?"



Sorry that was a typo on my part, I had meant to say Grim...s reaction was to ask why I wasn't voting for the quiet people My point there being that this was the beginning of him trying to encourage a vote for someone he knew wasn't a baddy. I think he expected me to back down from a vote so early on in the day when challeneged so I didn't look dodgy, and the easiest thing for me to do in that case would be to revert back to my day one vote which everyone can understand since bloody Morte never bloody spoke.

Grim... wrote:
2) "I thought this odd since I had given reasons for my vote quite clearly in my earlier posts." - You said "Ok, so Dave didn't have any hard facts yesterday since there is no way he could have known anything" and then went on to vote for Kalmar because MrDave did. Hardly 'clear'.

Well you summed that up nicely to make me sound more confused than what I actually was. What i actually said was-
"Dave didn't have any hard facts yesterday since there is no way he could have known anything however he did suggest some things that he thought could be useful. He suggested that the bad guys would be voting if the person voted out was innocent since they would know this would be the case and he suggested that the early voters should be looked at."
(Please note that I then went and looked at the early voters)
and then I said-
"Ok, Dave voted for kalmar. kalmar then voted for Dave but not immediatly as if to avoid being accused of it being a retaliatory vote. kalmar left his vote for Dave in throughout the game and was also the first person to vote for Dave. For these reasons, I am going to vote kalmar"

So my reasons for voting for kalmar was trusting mr dave had better day one judgement than I did, and then I explained how I reached the kalmar conclusion by using Mr Daves judgement.

The reason I started my post by saying Mr Dave had no hard facts was to acknowledge the fact I was just going with a theory. I think you know that fine well Grim... but are just selectivally detailing things I have said to make me seem scattier and more confused than I am. I am dissapointed no one else checked this.
Grim... wrote:
And while we're using meta-data: 3) "He was drawing attention to the fact that the three of us were all acting as we normally act during these types of thing" - I've never played with either you or AB1n0kid before, and besides, that makes no difference.


Hands up who thinks that Grim... not playing a game with us = Grim... not knowing how we played?
Grim... wrote:
If I was so desperate for Morte to be gone, why wouldn't I vote for him (or at least agree with you) during the first course? And if you assume that I'm a crasher, how is it to my advantage to vote off a guy that never says anything?

You didn't initally vote for him because you would have preffered someone else starting a vote so you could be a step removed from it.
Grim... wrote:
superdupergill wrote:
Look, I'm willing to say, if I'm wrong, take me as a free target tomorrow.

We don't have enough courses left to get it wrong. There's a (small) chance that if you lynch a guest today we'll lose the game.

As I said earlier-if I'm right, we get info on other people as well. If I'm wrong, we still get info. So even if I'm wrong and we lynch you and you are a vanilla guest, the info we gain from the experience is worth the sacrifice.


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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 15:31 
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I'm not fucking reading all that.

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 15:32 
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[vote:Grim...]


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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 15:35 
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superdupergill wrote:
[vote:Grim...]

Oh yeah, you said. I think Craster is more likely though, and we have to hit one this time so my vote stays, unless we want to pop Russ instead.

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 15:35 
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I don't think Russ is bad. I don't think Craster is either for what it's worth.


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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 15:37 
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Dear Lord, you protest a lot, don't you? And apparently think losing the game for us is worth it for the "information" we'll receive, even though that information is, by your own admission, you being a bad guy:
SDG wrote:
If I'm wrong, it implicates me and those I have now decided I trust such as Mr Russell(because he would never have mentioned the list after seeing it if bad). And albino because he has been implicated by the same people who are after me. So if I'm wrong, you have three suspects for baddys! Surel that makes up for he risk!
And anyway, it doesn't implicate anything of the sort (although I note it was you and Mr Russell voting for Morte on day one, but that's a bit obvious). You just seem to have got it into your head that by asking you a question, not voting for Morte first, and then voting for Morte first I simply must be mean and nasty. What about all the other people that voted for people first?
I'm increasingly sure that you and Craster are buddies, and you're doing a bad job of trying to defend him.

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 15:37 
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superdupergill wrote:
I don't think Russ is bad. I don't think Craster is either for what it's worth.

Shocker.

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 15:38 
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Another question - this "information" that we'd get from lynching me - wouldn't we get pretty much the same information from lynching you?

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 15:39 
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I'm going in 20 mins, then I'll be rushing around like a blue-arse fly getting ready for another wedding.

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 15:44 
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Grim... wrote:
Another question - this "information" that we'd get from lynching me - wouldn't we get pretty much the same information from lynching you?

If we lynch me, we learn I'm a goody.
If we lynch you, we learn you are a baddy, I feel more confident in trusting who I think I trust, and we can check out voting patterns/conversations involving you.


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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 15:46 
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Grim... wrote:
I'm increasingly sure that you and Craster are buddies, and you're doing a bad job of trying to defend him.


Well that's convenient. Arguing with Gill, and you suddenly bring me into the mix, as coincidentally I happen to be the other person up for the chop?

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 15:46 
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And what happens when you lynch me and find out I'm a goody?

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 15:47 
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Grim... wrote:
Dear Lord, you protest a lot, don't you? And apparently think losing the game for us is worth it for the "information" we'll receive, even though that information is, by your own admission, you being a bad guy:
SDG wrote:
If I'm wrong, it implicates me and those I have now decided I trust such as Mr Russell(because he would never have mentioned the list after seeing it if bad). And albino because he has been implicated by the same people who are after me. So if I'm wrong, you have three suspects for baddys! Surel that makes up for he risk!
And anyway, it doesn't implicate anything of the sort (although I note it was you and Mr Russell voting for Morte on day one, but that's a bit obvious). You just seem to have got it into your head that by asking you a question, not voting for Morte first, and then voting for Morte first I simply must be mean and nasty. What about all the other people that voted for people first?
I'm increasingly sure that you and Craster are buddies, and you're doing a bad job of trying to defend him.

I thank you for this comment but it makes me more sure I can trust craster. You are a baddy and you don't trust him so he must be good.
That's more info! If you get lynched, everyone can feel a wee bit happier trusting craster. Cheers. X


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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 15:47 
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Pyrotechnician!!!1

Joined: 13th Jul, 2009
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myp wrote:
I'm going in 20 mins, then I'll be rushing around like a blue-arse fly getting ready for another wedding.

Trust your gut instinct then and vote for Craster like you did to start with.

Will you be online much to check in on this thread over the next day or two?

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 15:47 
SupaMod
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Craster wrote:
Grim... wrote:
I'm increasingly sure that you and Craster are buddies, and you're doing a bad job of trying to defend him.


Well that's convenient. Arguing with Gill, and you suddenly bring me into the mix, as coincidentally I happen to be the other person up for the chop?

A fair point. But fuck me, I can't see why else she'd go this nuts about the order I voted in :S

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Grim... wrote:
I wish Craster had left some girls for the rest of us.


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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 15:49 
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Myp, if you vote for Grim... And I'm wrong, I'll give you My PS3.


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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 15:49 
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Grim... wrote:
A fair point. But fuck me, I can't see why else she'd go this nuts about the order I voted in :S

She hasn't gone nuts over anything, she has always BEEN nuts ;)

So you're not buying her being a daft lassie with a gob the size of Ben Nevis then? I'm still leaning that way to be honest...

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 Post subject: Re: Course 2
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 15:49 
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[vote:Grim...]

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