Be Excellent To Each Other

Misinformation? I'm just waxing lyrical on the possibilities, all of them plausible, however unlikely they may be.

Thats just your word however.

I think we can write off KevR for today, which is disappointing.

I'm glad I voted for him, he's clearly at a top party, in someone else's outfits... *wails* Who counsels the counsellor?

The Council.

Right, I'm off to finish off the wooden door reinforcements at the church, so I expect I'll miss today's fun.

Just a quick note to say that this is the first time since yesterday (in game yesterday) that I've been able to get to a computer mainly due to shift changes and on call call outs thanks to this lovely weather were having!

Just got to trawl through 16 pages and I'll be back up to speed.

Oh and I wasn't bitten last night. Either the Vamps did nothing, which I find very unlikely, or someones lying, which I also realise will probably make me a prime suspect as a result of my absence.

Sincerest apologies, I'm on days now so it won't happen again.

[vote:kevr]

Only joking
[vote:unvote]

either KevR and or someone else is witholding info, or someone was roleblocked Sire.

only person that we know was roleblocked was Mr Russ.

Or the vamps bit a power townie.

Aye, priests are immune, Van Halen is out at a gig all night. Hmm

It looks like we're at an impasse again.

Thank you KevR for being the anti-climax we were expecting.

So, here's my crazy hypothesis for the day.

The Sire bit the loon:
We did say last night that the loon could own up to being bitten and we'd probably lynch him, but it wouldn't be guaranteed.
If the Sire did bite the loon, he'd have been blocked, so he'll almost certainly send a childe to kill him off and if the loon spoke out then he risks Van Halen protecting him and killing the Childe.

Other possibilities:

He bit a townie that doesn't want to own up to it (either because they fancy being a vampire, or they just don't want to get lynched).
He bit the Serial Killer, who would almost certainly gain an advantage if he was to join the Vampires.
He bit another protected role who doesn't want to own up to it. This seems pointless, as I said above, the Sire will almost certainly send the Childe to kill last night's target if it was a protected role. The Sire knows who you are, so you may as well tell the rest of us.
He didn't bite anyone. Because he's a sadist and has enjoyed watching us deliberate over this all day long.

I burnt my toast writing this post.

The only way that someone isn't lying (I believe everyone has confirmed that they weren't bitten) is if the Sire did nothing, which I can't see as the Vamps need to get their numbers up as quickly as possible.

The Sire could also have been roleblocked, I think.

[vote:nolynch]

I still think we've got sod all to go on at this stage as a result of two Townies being bumped off and the risk of lynching an innocent is still far too high. The rather sporadic voting would suggest that no one else has particularly strong views either and I can't see a consensus being reached by the end of the game day.

[vote:nolynch] as well. As people have said there is still no hard information and at least this way we can keep the numbers up and go forward tomorrow with even more information. A good thing surely?

Only a good thing for the vampires as they have a broader selection of embraceables.

I think the way to win this game is to cut the numbers down, even if its civialian casualties, and then use the power roles to get the vamps sirloined.

Right now, the signal to noise ration is shit. I dont see how promoting that will help the town acheive anything.


Note to the Gaywood: If for instance a townie was strung up, but they had been bitten once, would the storyline tell us of a first attempt embrace ? Obviously that will help the town, and its not explicitly written anywhere to my knowledge.

I would have to assume we'd notice the bite marks.

Hmmmm. Good question. I'm going to go with yes. There would be marks on the body, after all.

Vote Update

curiosity: 2 votes (mr dave, the rev owen)
joans: 3 votes (dimrill, mr chris, zardoz)
kevr: 1 vote (dudley)
mr russ: 1 vote (lacesensor)
nolynch: 5 votes (bluecup, kevr, mr russ, rodafowa, runcle)

Not voted: craster, curiosity, grim..., joans, kalmar, myoptika, vegetables

With 19 players alive, 10 votes are required for a lynch and 14 votes for there to be no lynch.

Or at least a stylish turtleneck.

Or perhaps a fashionable scarf.

The way I see it is that keeping the numbers up helps extend the time that the power roles get to find the vamps. The less townies there are the more likely the vamps/serial killer will have hitting a power role. Please explain how having less protection for the power roles will help the power roles? As far as I can see you don't have any logical reasoning

It has logic if you want the town to actually do something, rather than rely on the night roles. Its just waiting for people to get picked off each night, then the next day gonig "well we stil lknow there is a SK, Vigi, and some vampires, but noone will admit to being bitten, lets vote No Lynch again!". SNORE.

Agreed.

The longer the game goes on, the more chance there is that we get meaningful information.

Once this happens, it can lead to the Vamps being wiped out quite quickly.

The longer it goes on, the more members teh vampires have, each with a kill/roleblock ability. How do you propose to kill "all" the vampires? The town only has the Curriculum Vitae with a kill ability, and any information gathered by our Holynesses would have to be inferred from their voting, as they blatantly wouldnt role reveal. Van Helsing can only speculatively protect *someone* and thats not much use if a childer is sent to kill them (from my understanding he can only protect from bites).

I think we have to do some lynching of our own to try and snag a baddy power role.
This No Lynching is just delaying the inevitable IMHO.

The argument is that the power roles have a very small chance of hitting on a bad guy right now. With fewer players the odds are increased. But, as you say, the chances of the bad guys hitting the powerful good guys increases, too.

Rather poetical, like the note left at the victims house!!!

Joans has a good hypothesis about the Loon. If they were bitten and didn't come forwards, the Childe would surely kill them the next day, which they want, as the Sire wouldn't know the difference between the Loon and Van Halen, since they're both immune to bites.

Actually, a question to The Mayor's Ghost - Does the Sire get different FAIL messages for trying to bite the Loon, Van Halen/Vigilante and Priest respectively?

If the Sire didn't bite the loon then someone is lying, or the Sire didn't bite at all. If he went for a power role they'd own up, unless they were particularly silly. Unless Van Halen are immune to Childe kills, which it doesn't mention in the rules.

Ho hum... I have no bright ideas on who to lynch, so for the time being.

[vote:nolynch]

Blimey. I'm less enlightened than I was. So [vote:unvote]. This is all casting in the dark at the moment.

Oh, and someone suggested that I was suss for having approved of Gaywood's rule change. I approved of it because as he said, without the change the vamps couldn't win - this would have made for an exceptionally dull game. And I don't know about you guys, but I'm here for the jollies. And the lynchings.

That does go to show how little we've got to go on when peopel are even jumping on things like that as evidence of guilt. If only comical were playing we'd have an easy choice of lynchee.

If the Preist and Van Halen do their job thats part of the town protected and gaining information, especially if as speculated any Van Halens and Preists in the game know each others identity.

The Preist can retain anonymity to an extent from the coven if he is protected from a embrace bite by a roleblocking Van Halen riff.

I will be watching the voting patterns to try and pick up some pairs in the voting especially after tommorow, hoping the preist(s) can devine some info on a baddy power role.

Definitely no.

They are not.

Correct.

Keeping one on each page.
Vote Update

curiosity: 2 votes (mr dave, the rev owen)
joans: 2 votes (dimrill, zardoz)
kevr: 1 vote (dudley)
mr russ: 1 vote (lacesensor)
nolynch: 6 votes (bluecup, curiosity, kevr, mr russ, rodafowa, runcle)

Not voted: craster, grim..., joans, kalmar, mr chris, myoptika, vegetables

With 19 players alive, 10 votes are required for a lynch and 14 votes for there to be no lynch.

I think I've seen some evidence of pairs, but whether they're good or bad pairs I really can't tell at this stage. Could be the priest/Van Halen, masonic townies or the Sire and Childe. (Isn't that a pub in Oxford?)

There is going to be a natural thinning of players anyway from the Sk/vamp/vig. (The vamps only have a total of one kill ability by the way). With townies owning up to be bitten we can then lynch them and keep the numbers down (for the good of the town). And if the priest finds a vamp early I don't see why he wouldn't role claim. We then can get the vamps down to one person who won't have a kill ability and left with only one bite a night. So again, you really aren't thinking things though.

Why is everyone so quick to discount the possibility that the Sire didn't attempt a bite last night?

As the rules stood during the last night action, he had to visit the same person twice on the bounce. So anyone he bit was likely to say so, making it much too risky for the Sire to go back the following night. Even if he put the Childe out there getting in a "decoy" bite, he'd still have on average a 50% chance of Eddy or possibly Alex being there to ambush him tonight.

All a bite last night would have done is put him at risk (he might get spectacularly unlucky and wander into a protective Van Halen, or more likely he might have been chosen for a tail and so reveal to someone who he was) for absolutely no reward. Far better to sit and wait and hope for either the Childe or SK to off a Van Halen before he starts thinking about biting.

Add to that the 15% chance he might have tried to bite someone who couldn't be bitten, and surely it looks far more likely that nobody got bitten than that somebody's lying, doesn't it?

If we get to tomorrow and still nobody's claiming to be bitten, that's something else.

I can see the thinking behind not owning up, but if the player 'fancies being a vampire' then they're not playing the game properly, IMO.

Still, I agree that, in the words of Sew-crates, "the only true knowledge is knowing that we know nothing".
[vote:nolynch]

Hey, I'm not the gaming police, so although I agree with you, it's up to everyone how they want to play the game.
I'd say if it was a townie that's not speaking up, it's because they didn't get in before the rule change led to people deciding it would be a better idea to lynch anyone that says they got bitten, rather than try to protect them.

As for the Sire not biting, I could see him not doing it on the grounds that he wouldn't be able to safely come back for a second bite the next night, but that would have applied to the whole game if he didn't know the rule change was coming. Also, even if he did bite with no intention of returning the following night, he may have discovered one of the power roles and could send the Childe to kill them the following night. Basically, he had nothing to lose and something to gain by biting somebody (unless he happened to get trailed, or tried to bite whoever van halen was protecting, but the odds of both of those would be slim).

Well, at the moment I am at work so some of the pages I cant view.
I cant really search for pairs now, and I reckon their may well be more info tommorowo anyway, if there is a Preist or Two in the house.

I think I have stated my argument reasonably, and although it isnt perhaps the wiesest play, its what I would do if it was all up to me.

However, its a team game, so I'm willing for now to listen to the majority of people, whose reasoning is better than mine, but the result less favourable to me right now, so im going to change to [vote: nolynch]

I hope tommorow brings some information to the fray.

<aside>I'll try and sort out a special swearing filter for you. Can you PM me an email address so I can tell you when it's done?

I don't like being inactive, but given that KevR coming forward has given us no new information, then [vote:nolynch]

As I said, he might have decided to play the waiting game. With two killing roles out there, sooner or later the (a?) Van Halen will go down and he can be a bit less cautious with trying to turn.



He's only got very slightly better odds of finding a "power" role - 5 or 10%, depending on how many priests are in the game - than he has of being tailed. Why would he take that chance on night 1? He's not got to worry about night kills, nobody seems to be rushing to lynch... why wouldn't he sit tight and wait for his odds to improve?

[vote:nolynch]

And the chances of the good guys hitting the powerful good guys, or indeed hitting party supply store owners.

Quote: "As I said, he might have decided to play the waiting game. With two killing roles out there, sooner or later the (a?) Van Halen will go down and he can be a bit less cautious with trying to turn."


By the same logic its the same odds that HE himself will go down as a Van Halen (if there is one Van Halen).

I find it highly unlikely that someone with a nightrole would not exercise it, espeically the Sire.. Thats the fun, and indeed the point, of the game. And as stated the info or potential Childe he could gain from using his night role far outweights the odds of being tailed.

Nope, the Van Halen can only kill the Sire from ambush. If he's not biting, the Sire's got nothing to fear except lynching. Why rush? If the VH targets him for a roleblock and he's not biting, that's even better from the Sire's point of view - he looks like he's got no night action and puts himself in the clear. His only risk is that a priest targets him, but there might not even be any priests in the game.

As the rules stood last night, the Sire would have been bonkers to try and bite someone unless he was sending his Childe to put a "decoy" bite out there. Sitting tight and killing a townie was probably the percentage play.

Or SK/Vig.

Keep looking.

Actually, to correct my correction, it doesn't specifically say the Vigilante can't off the Sire. Clarification, Doc JollyPine?

But the Sire didn't know the rules were going to change, so his sit tight policy was one he was looking to adopt for the whole game (until the odds were more in his favour)?
What would he do tonight if the rules were still the same. Wait again?
What if a Van Halen had died (either through lynching/SK or Childe). Is he safe then, or does he have to wait for the other one to die too?
What if there isn't another one, does he just wait forever?
What if there aren't any, does he just wait forever?

While I admit the way the rules stand, there was very little chance of him getting in two consecutive bites (ever, while at least 1 VH was alive, not just the first two nights), so I can appreciate him not doing anything, but the odds were against anything going wrong for him.

I agree with the relative of my former cult leader.

If I had been a vamp, I would have done what the town was not expecting. The town was expecting two bites, or a bite and a kill. Instead it apparently got one kill and no bite, which gave us zero info.

Clever little vampires, so they are.

My 'danger list' is looking towards those who are clever.

Myoptika... you're back in the clear!