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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 13:11 
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I suggest you shrewdly reinvest the money in Microgaming's MEGA MOOLAH slots, the progressive jackpot is now up to an all time high of over £16M.

Play from as little as 1p per spin!

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 13:27 
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Err, no. Gambling is a mug's game. ;)

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:52 
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Proving that gambling isn't for mugs, I manage to dispose of £100 in about two hours buying features on Genie Jackpots Megaways at a tenner a pop.

Stupid gambling.


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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:13 
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I got this from a 40p spin with two spins left of wagering from a low risk "stake £20 get a £2-£50 bonus WR5" offer. Ended £56 up from 93p EV.

I'm already £400 in profit for September.


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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:25 
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That looks like Eastern Emeralds by Quickspin Gaming to me.

Crikey, how sad.

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:02 
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It is. Coral and Ladbrokes do these offers every day, the slot just changes once a week. The Ladbrokes one this week is pretty good, stake £20 get 20 free spins. £4.07 EV per day, so I stand to gain £30 over the week.

Of course it doesn't always work out that way.

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:53 
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For balance, I put £20 into Forbidden Dragons this morning which was an EV of £1.18 as you get a cash drop of £2-£50, but I finished £8.10 down on wagering and then got the minimum cash drop, so £6.10 down.

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 13:11 
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Lonewolves wrote:
Err, no. Gambling is a mug's game. ;)

Lonewolves wrote:
I finished £8.10 down


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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 13:22 
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Even bonus offers that are, on average, in the player's favour can still go wrong.

As long as you take nothing but EV+ offers, random numbers and maths will get you there in the end, and you'll make money, but not every encounter will result in a win.

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 14:22 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:
Err, no. Gambling is a mug's game. ;)

Lonewolves wrote:
I finished £8.10 down

In the short term of course I will lose sometimes, but that's just variance. But over the long term I will profit. As you can see on my graph here I'm well ahead of EV so I'm expecting some losses coming up.

I only do low risk casino offers anyway. The most I can lose at any one time is usually around £50.


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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 14:38 
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Lonewolves wrote:
As you can see on my graph here I'm well ahead of EV so I'm expecting some losses coming up.

That’s not how that works.


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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 14:52 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:
As you can see on my graph here I'm well ahead of EV so I'm expecting some losses coming up.

That’s not how that works.

So you're saying each offer is independent of each other and nothing in the past affects a future outcome. Which makes sense. So I shouldn't expect losses and should continue to make profit at around the EV of each future offer.

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 14:54 
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I'm confused how that strengthens your argument that it is gambling though. :shrug:

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 14:56 
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Lonewolves wrote:
I'm confused how that strengthens your argument that it is gambling though. :shrug:


You lost money, I'm confused how you think it isn't gambling.

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 15:02 
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Lonewolves wrote:
I'm confused how that strengthens your argument that it is gambling though. :shrug:

My two points weren't related.

But the offers you are using are gambling, of course they are, as Cras says. You could have an EV of 10x but there's still a chance you'll lose it all.


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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 15:06 
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Cras wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:
I'm confused how that strengthens your argument that it is gambling though. :shrug:


You lost money, I'm confused how you think it isn't gambling.

It doesn't matter if I win or lose money in the short term, in the long term I will always win. The maths bears that out.

It's like tossing a coin ten times and getting 8, 9, 10 heads, which is perfectly feasible. It's called short-term variance. Toss a coin a million times and it will be very close to 500,000 heads.

Gambling is doing what Hearthly does, putting £200 into a machine that returns 96% to the player on average. So over the long term he will always lose money, even if he gets some short-term wins.

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 15:07 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
You could have an EV of 10x but there's still a chance you'll lose it all.

And this is fine, I accept that and I have the bankroll to absorb short-term losses like that.

But over time I will make money. That is maths.

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 15:13 
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No it isn't. You could get a 20% return over a thousand years of playing something with a EV of 1.18. It's highly unlikely, but that's maths.

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 15:13 
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The high-risk casino offers would blow your minds, I think. It did mine when I read about them. Some people take hundreds and hundreds of pounds in losses before they make a huge win. And it's recommended you have a bank of £10k before you even attempt it! I'm not sure I'd have the stomach for that, even if I get that far.

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 15:15 
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Lonewolves wrote:
Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
That is maths.


Bzzzt. Incorrect.

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 15:16 
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Cras wrote:
No it isn't. You could get a 20% return over a thousand years of playing something with a EV of 1.18. It's highly unlikely, but that's maths.

Ok I'll rephrase it slightly then. I am highly likely to make a profit by only taking part in EV+ offers. That's also maths.

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 15:25 
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Lonewolves wrote:
Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
You could have an EV of 10x but there's still a chance you'll lose it all.

And this is fine, I accept that and I have the bankroll to absorb short-term losses like that.

But over time I will make money. That is maths.

This is literally the gambler's fallacy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

There is no certainty you will make money. There's very good odds. But not certainty.


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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 15:31 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:
Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
You could have an EV of 10x but there's still a chance you'll lose it all.

And this is fine, I accept that and I have the bankroll to absorb short-term losses like that.

But over time I will make money. That is maths.

This is literally the gambler's fallacy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

There is no certainty you will make money. There's very good odds. But not certainty.

No, you're right, it isn't certain. I was wrong to phrase it like that. But it's highly likely.

I don't agree it's the gambler's fallacy, though. That's a feeling that because I've flipped ten heads in a row it's got to be tails next time. I've already said that is very easily done.

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 15:33 
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Curio wrote a story about that once. He promised to share it again and then didn't because he didn't like it any more.

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 15:34 
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I bet it is the gambler's fallacy.

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 15:36 
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If I do an offer that the maths states I should expect £1 profit on average every time I do it, I don't think it's the gambler's fallacy to believe that over the long term I will get £1 profit out of it on average. :shrug:

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 15:43 
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It's absolutely not Gambler's Fallacy. If a bonus offer is mathematically in the player's favour, assuming correct play strategy by the player, then over enough samples the player absolutely will make a profit, although there may be short term fluctuations above and below expected results.

In simple terms what these bonus offers are doing is offering a game with an RTP (Return To Player) of over 100%, so over time the maths will work out in the player's favour. (With absolute certainty over a large enough sample size, and with great likelihood over a smaller sample size.)

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 21:10 
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I did a couple of these once, based on waiting for offers with good EV.

Lost every penny on both of them miles before reaching the betting requirements.

Now fair’s fair Myp. You have to refund me.

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 22:17 
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A couple of them :DD

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 22:25 
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I just made £58 on Southampton v Brighton. Bet365 pay up if the team you back goes two goals up, so I backed Southampton at 2 and laid at 2.06 on Smarkets for a qualifying loss of £1.46 on a stake of £50.

Southampton went 2-0 up, so B365 paid out, and then Brighton pulled a goal back. I traded out half of my lay bet on the exchange for a guaranteed £8.86 profit and when Brighton scored again and the game finished 2-2 I ended up with £50 from the bookie and £8.86 from the exchange.

I could have left it and won £98.54 or traded it all out at 2-1 for £19.18, but cashing out half for a small guaranteed profit and a shot at 50% of a big payout seems like a decent compromise.

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 23:31 
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Grim... wrote:
Curio wrote a story about that once. He promised to share it again and then didn't because he didn't like it any more.


The Gambler’s Phallusy


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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 18:12 
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Worth noting that if it definitely isn’t gambling, it could well be taxable. Contrary to popular belief there is not an outright statutory exemption on gambling profits, more, it is not in the interests of HMRC to tax punters as this would require them to give tax relief for losses. This would result in a net loss of revenue.

Organised gambling - ie a bookmaker - is very much taxable. Hmrc manuals clarify this here https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manual ... l/bim22018 The final paragraph is instructive in this regard.

“The key feature is that the taxpayer is likely to be involved in the organisation of the activity. They are not mere punters. They are carrying on an activity where the odds are in their favour.”

Nearly all settled cases where a taxpayer has claimed gambling trades are very, very old. They don’t accommodate the modern system potentials of taking free bonuses through online markets to generate a near certain profit. Remove the gambling element from it and the purpose of the transactions, frequency of transactions and organised nature of the activity (spreadsheet and free bet tracking etc) together with the time incurred could very much point towards the key badges of trade.


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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 18:17 
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Ok then it's definitely gambling. I'm just the luckiest man alive! Or Old me has travelled back from the future to give me a book with every sports result in it for the next 45 years.

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 18:51 
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Lonewolves wrote:
For balance, I put £20 into Forbidden Dragons this morning which was an EV of £1.18 as you get a cash drop of £2-£50, but I finished £8.10 down on wagering and then got the minimum cash drop, so £6.10 down.

£12 down on wagering today, but I got the maximum £50 cash drop so £38 profit. :attitude:

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 21:05 
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Satsuma wrote:
Grim... wrote:
Curio wrote a story about that once. He promised to share it again and then didn't because he didn't like it any more.


The Gambler’s Phallusy


Poppycock

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:00 
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For 'people of a certain age' this might bring back some memories.


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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:59 
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R.I.P. Gramps


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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2018 22:23 
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This is a fairly rare occurrence, a Royal Flush in Jacks or Better Video Poker.

Pays £400 from a 50p play.


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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Sat Sep 29, 2018 16:54 
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I thought last month might be a one-off with the two massive casino wins I had, but it turns out not. Still not doing very many signup offers (I think I did four this month, and haven't had my £50 free bet from LeoVegas yet so that's another £35-£40 profit). The main difference this month is that I've started doing Bet365 and Paddy Power 2ups. What happens is that you back a football team to win, and if they go two goals clear at any point during the match they pay out early. So you can either wait and hope the other team go on to equalise or win so you get paid at both the bookie and the exchange, or do what I do and place another back bet on the team who have gone 2up to mitigate exchange liability and lock in a profit. I've probably made around £150 from this alone this month and I've only really just started formulating my strategy for how much to trade out and at what point to do it.


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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:59 
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Some casino sites are very shady with what happens with your money when you deposit. There are three which are basically the same company (PocketWin, MFortune and Mr Spin), and when you deposit your own cash it turns into bonus funds which need to be wagered once before you can withdraw again and will always use cash before bonus! So they tempt you in with a matched deposit bonus of anything from 50% to 200%, but playing normally there's not a great chance you'll end up with anything at the end of it.

However, there is a way around it in order to ensure the bonus funds are used first and have a high probability of turning most of that bonus into cash. I spun the wheel and got a 75% matched deposit with PocketWin, so deposited £134 for a max bonus of £100. I'd already turned their £5 signup bonus into £30 cash and then lost my initial £10 deposit you need to qualify for the reload offer (which I was ok with losing as the reload offer is so profitable), so had £30 sat in my withdrawal section. The trick is to place £10 (max bet) on red or black (48.6% probability of winning) and when you win reverse any withdrawals you have, before withdrawing it all again. This means all cash is sat in withdrawals and the game can only use bonus funds. I spent 10 mins doing this and turned the £100 bonus into £86 cash. Now just have to hope the £250 withdrawal goes through smoothly. ;)

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:19 
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I'm surprised they don't invoke their 'bonus abuse' terms from the T&Cs with stuff like that TBH.

If you get paid though, happy days!

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:31 
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Hearthly wrote:
I'm surprised they don't invoke their 'bonus abuse' terms from the T&Cs with stuff like that TBH.

If you get paid though, happy days!

No one else on my matched betting groups seem to have had an issue withdrawing, so I'm pretty hopeful.

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 13:35 
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Shady shenanigans in the world of online slots.

It's my video linked to in the article :)

https://www.bigwinboard.com/jammin-jars ... streamers/



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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 13:37 
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I'm amazed it's taken this long. Not every one of those online slot machines can be validated as following the regulations, not with the speed they pop up, and they're an obvious target for abuse.

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 13:39 
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What will they say though? Even though the odds are astronomical, it's still technical possible for it to happen.

I do agree that online slot machines are shady as fuck though.


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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 13:42 
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TheVision wrote:
What will they say though? Even though the odds are astronomical, it's still technical possible for it to happen.

If they try that as an explanation, they're as dumb as fuck.

Even just one 8x8 grid being the same is unlikely enough, for it to repeatedly do that...

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 16:17 
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Lonewolves wrote:
Hearthly wrote:
I'm surprised they don't invoke their 'bonus abuse' terms from the T&Cs with stuff like that TBH.

If you get paid though, happy days!

No one else on my matched betting groups seem to have had an issue withdrawing, so I'm pretty hopeful.

I got a text today saying they needed to speak to me over the phone about my account. Uh oh!

I called them up, bracing myself for bad news. The support agent congratulated me on my win and asked me to email docs to verify my identity!

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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 21:51 
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Here's my take on the Jammin' Jars situation, including the response from Push Gaming (the game developer) themselves.


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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:48 
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Had a decent start to the month. 38% of the way to my October target in four days. Mixture of free bets, 2up and casino.
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 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:51 
SupaMod
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"Praisebot"

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 14720
Location: Parts unknown
That total profit there, how long a period is that over?

I must admit, I haven't got a clue when it comes to gambling but it certainly seems like you're working the system.


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