Be Excellent To Each Other

And, you know, party on. Dude.

All times are UTC [ DST ]




Reply to topic  [ 3 posts ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: Hurricane Ian
PostPosted: Wed Sep 28, 2022 12:43 
User avatar
Excellent Member

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 7978
Location: Cardiff
Being the weather nerd I am it's been both baffling and disturbing to see over the last week the progress of Hurricane Ian from a tropical disturbance south of Jamaica into a powerful hurricane that has passed over Western Cuba to now form a potential Category Five major Hurricane poised to hit a highly populated stretch of Florida's Western coast.

For much of its track Ian has been tying up the forecast models in knots as they try to figure out its ultimate path and strength. At first it looked to be heading to a weak landfall in the Florida panhandle. Then as it hit Cuba it trended towards a moderate Tampa hit, a worrying case indeed for a very surge prone major city. Then the models swung south and some weaker categories were banded about until suddenly, defying expectation, Ian began to strengthen as it passed OVER land in its transit across Cuba. It hit a belt of very warm waters between Cuba and Florida and began a rapid eyewall replacement cycle, where a large, new eyewall formed up around the old one and choked it off, causing the inner one to fall apart. This checked Ian's speed, but only briefly. What usually takes a day or two happened in ten hours in a burst of rapid intensification, and Ian is now approaching a Katrina sized hurricane with an eyewall 35 miles in diameter.

The path no longer brings it into Tampa but instead around fifty miles south. However that's not good news either as the entirely stretch of coast below Tampa is crowded with artificial dodgy swampland cities crowded with mansions built by real estate hucksters the likes of which would put Lyle Langley and Glenglarry Ross to shame. Ian is now headed towards Port Charlotte and a coastline of 700,000 people with a forecast surge of 12 to 16 feet. The cities are at sea level.

Attachment:
095758_peak_surge.png


Attachment:
ianeye.png



As Ian tracks over these it will dump 20 inches of rain in Tampa and the backwinds will cause a surge there of around four to six feet. The hurricane will then head towards Orlando over the next 24 hours where it will eventually peter out into a storm, but not before bringing major flooding.

I only hope everyone evacuated because until yesterday the models were predicting a northerly hit towards Tampa. If Port Charlotte and the neighbouring cities weren't paying attention... well.

This is almost certain to be a historic storm and could pretty much destroy Florida's insurance market. I wouldn't be surprised if it rivalled Katrina in the number of people it displaces. I expect it to be front page news tomorrow.

Jesus, what a week, eh?


.


You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

_________________
"Peter you've lost the NEWS!"

Bored? Why not look at some pretty pictures on my photography blog? Here: http://petetakespictures.com

Come & See My Flickery Pics Here: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nervouspete/


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Hurricane Ian
PostPosted: Wed Sep 28, 2022 16:09 
User avatar
Excellent Member

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 7978
Location: Cardiff
The surge forecast has now gone up to eighteen feet for Port Charlotte and Fort Meyers area. There's 400,000 people in the mapped surge zone. The hurricane is showing no signs of weakening and is now a borderline category five at or close to 155mph peak surface winds at the eyewall, which is around 30 miles across. The water has been sucked out of Tampa Bay owing to the winds up that way moving offshore, and it'll be coming back in later as it shifts to inshore as the hurricane passes, though thankfully only up to six feet probably for the Tampa area. Between two and four feet of rain forecast to fall in parts of Florida over the next 48 hours.

This is frankly terrifying. It might actually out-do Katrina.

_________________
"Peter you've lost the NEWS!"

Bored? Why not look at some pretty pictures on my photography blog? Here: http://petetakespictures.com

Come & See My Flickery Pics Here: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nervouspete/


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Hurricane Ian
PostPosted: Wed Sep 28, 2022 17:56 
User avatar
Heavy Metal Tough Guy

Joined: 31st Mar, 2008
Posts: 6349
Nothing I've read about Florida gives me a wild amount of confidence in their preparedness, infrastructure and the state government's ability to handle a crisis like this...


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic  [ 3 posts ] 

All times are UTC [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Dr Zoidberg and 0 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search within this thread:
You are using the 'Ted' forum. Bill doesn't really exist any more. Bogus!
Want to help out with the hosting / advertising costs? That's very nice of you.
Are you on a mobile phone? Try http://beex.co.uk/m/
RIP, Owen. RIP, MrC.

Powered by a very Grim... version of phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group.