Be Excellent To Each Other

Wouldn't the DUP really want a no border with the EU?

There's no single system of PR, but let's assume we're using the simplest and taking the UK as a single electoral area distributing seats strictly on percentage. The Tories would get 42.4% of the seats (274); Labour 40% (260). The Lib Dems would get 48 seats.

Other systems would allocate votes/seats differently and all have their own quirks.

So very different, and naturally people might behave differently under such circumstances.

These are the Tories' new buddies:

https://twitter.com/Number10cat/status/ ... 1454678016

Meet the Conservatives new buddies: #GE2017 pic.twitter.com/IVo0aNxsFq

— Larry the Cat (@Number10cat) June 9, 2017

Yeah, I'm aware of the different systems, but as Grim... was struggling with the basics I wanted to keep it simple.

I've just noticed that Labour got the correct number of seats (ish) to match its vote share.

Oh, so they're the nasty party.

Yep, which is why even though Labour didn't win, to get 40% when the polls showed a double digit lead for the Tories even a couple of weeks back, it's an astonishing achievement.

My seat is one of the tory's safest ones, had a 16,000 majority. What was interesting to see was that Labour took all of the UKIP votes from the last election giving them a gain of 13%.

viewtopic.php?style=26&p=911073#p911073

50 weeks ago.

May speaking at No 10, she now sounds like an actual robot reading out lines.

EDIT - 'Friends and allies' in the DUP. Nice friends you've got there, Theresa.

A somewhat underwhelming speech from Mrs May delivered with little passion.

'The promise of Brexit': who comes up with this shit?

She didn't acknowledge anything that's happened in the last 15 hours! She basically just said "brexit keeps on keeping on"

She wouldn't stand a chance. It's Boris, Rudd or someone like Stephen Crabb.

It sounded like a speech given by an iPhone.

That, I suspect, is a big part of the problem all along.
No charisma = serious disadvantage. Corbyn might well have completely barking policies and a very tenuous grasp of economics (IMO) but he has charm and considerable resilience, not to mention absolute authenticity and, by and large, honesty. This stuff matters.

I don't know I felt quite reassured. I think she has the strength and stability to make sure that we're definitely all still fucked.

He also reminds most people of their grandad

You would have thought she'd have shown a bit of contrition and a willingness to reach out to those who have voted against her party this week. But no, full steam ahead and ignore everything that's happened in the last 8 weeks.

It was just a flesh wound!

I'm content now, I'm going to the pub.

P davies says:

http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/n ... _campaign/

Ahh yes, the deficit and austerity! Remember the good ol' days when that was the singular most important political issue and we all argued about it endlessly! Thank goodness that was all fixed, we're paying off the debt and we need never think of it again ( check this )

Tories and DUP won't work as well as she hopes. May is toppled. We have another election. Maybe another hung parliament. Time for Brexit negotiations decreases.

It's going to be very interesting

I agree about May, but the DUP have been propping up weak Tory governments for a long time and I don't see that changing, short term at least. They don't want a hard Brexit collapse/Corbyn's in Single Market at any price stance, even less than the Tories themselves. That they've struck the deal within minutes, pretty much, probsbly tells its own story.

I do agree that a GE within a year or so is quite likely though, which, if competently handled the Tories could win. Especially as they now know what they're up against and time to galvanise, not alienate older voters.

But will the more tolerant, pro-LGBT wing of the Tory party rebel against this new alliance? That seems feasible.

I'm going to predict another election and hung parliament, but Tories and Lab to be neck and neck, maybe even Labour slightly ahead, especially if Boris is in charge

His vote share actually increased by about 4%, but the UKIP vote dropped 16% and the Con vote increased 15.9%, so they swept up the ukip losses.

The labour majority vote of our seat increased significantly, on the other hand. Mind you, I'm not entirely sure what 'north' Walsall encompasses. If it's near Brownhills, etc, it's quite a different mindset from around here.

Do you have all these bookmarked or something?

If it really is true what people are saying about the DUP then a sizable chunk of my conscience would love that to be the case. My guess, though, is that every Tory MP to a man and woman is thanking their lucky stars that they're even still in power *at all* and, short term at least, mouths will be welded shut. It's cynical I know, but I just can't see it any other way, the horses are well and truly scared, here, and were it not for the Scots JC would be going to the Palace about now. We came within a fag paper's breadth.

On the other hand, of course, there's the issue of a divisive Leadership contest which surely must, now, come. Enough for the govt. to lose a No Confidence Motion at some stage, if in dissarray? Possibly.



Notwithstanding the first part of my post I'm fairly done with predictions I think.
For me, I don't think the Brits like a hung parliament much, so, provided the Tories don't do totally unnecessary, ridiculous shit like telling all the old duffers there're doomed in terms of social costs and winter fuel (when the election was supposed to be able Brexit :rolleyes: ), and as against the very real spectre of a hard Left Labour government (which hardly anyone thought a plausible outcome), I personally think the Tories would win fairly convincingly. But seriously, what do I know.

Sky sources saying DUP are saying no deal has been done and discussions are ongoing. Has May jumped the gun here? It's obviously looking like a minority govt with C&S from DUP. They'll ask for loads more money for NI of course too.

Very shaky if so. I bet it won't last six months.

No. If I write something I feel I might want to recall, I'll use a word I don't commonly use, or I'll use a person's name.

And do you do all this from within the halls of your mind palace?

Sorry, I mean: And do you do all this from within the stuccoed halls of your mind palace, Barbara?

Indubitably!

I don't think she's going to be able to shake off this self-inflicted disaster. Her calling it for stability etc is going to be as remembered as Ted Heath's February 1974 election of 'who runs Britain?'

Yeah she's got absolutely no fucking chance. Whilst people like Boris will happily put the interests of the party above those of the country there's no way they'll put the party ahead of their own ambitions. You can almost hear the knives being sharpened.

What are the odds DUP ask for one of theirs to be made Northern Ireland Minister?

Only if it's a full blown coalition which seems unlikely at this moment in time.

What's the chance that DUP officially in government might cause some unpleasantness in Northern Ireland, especially if they end up with the Northern Ireland ministry?

The DUP already cause plenty of unpleasantness in Northern Ireland. It's just we haven't paid attention up until now (me included).

May warned us all about a week leader propped up by extremists and terrorists. We just didn't realise that she was referring to herself.

/weeps

My favourite memory of Belfast. Go there for a weekend. It's great. They're big on the Titanic.

Maybe I should have said "far more, and much more unpleasant unpleasantness"

Might not go as far as palace.

Like Rose's boobs.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/theresa-may-ju ... ng-1625595

A Campbell on the last night

Has the Kensington result been called yet? I can't find it anywhere. I think it went for a re-count. My uncle lives there, and he's a complete butt-sponge, and I very much suspect he's a conservative voter and would laugh to see Labour take it.

Well let's be honest, the guy's an expert on that score!
(He's right though)

No, the recount has been postponed until later today as the counters were becoming 'visibly tired'.