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| EU in or out? https://www.beexcellenttoeachother.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=10763 |
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| Author: | Malc [ Fri May 27, 2016 23:21 ] |
| Post subject: | EU in or out? |
Choose? |
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| Author: | myp [ Fri May 27, 2016 23:39 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Define 'at all costs' |
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| Author: | TheVision [ Fri May 27, 2016 23:40 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
I hope there won't be 7 choices on voting day.... |
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| Author: | Malc [ Sat May 28, 2016 0:10 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Lonewolves wrote: Define 'at all costs' You have to sacrifice something you care about to stay in/leave the EU |
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| Author: | TheCookie197 [ Sat May 28, 2016 1:21 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
I'm not much of a fan of the EU anymore... But I'd be more worried about what kind of crap the Tories (human rights act) would try to do without Brussels. My ideal situation would be England voting to leave, Scotland voting to stay, Scottish independence, Scotland unable to get back into the EU anytime soon. 
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| Author: | myp [ Sat May 28, 2016 3:22 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Malc wrote: Lonewolves wrote: Define 'at all costs' You have to sacrifice something you care about to stay in/leave the EU Then no. I think it's the best option we have currently, and we're better in than out. But not 'at all costs' because that implies I'd want to stay in it even if it did not benefit the country, which I don't. |
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| Author: | Mr Russell [ Sat May 28, 2016 5:13 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
I think this will be like the 2015 election. The group of people we know and online types will mostly be IN and so we'll convince ourselves that IN will win. Then it'll be a shock OUT result because of all the jingoistic racists and there will be much hand-wringing about how it couldn't have been seen coming. |
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| Author: | Dr Zoidberg [ Sat May 28, 2016 7:53 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
I'm very much in favour of staying In, but I won't be at all surprised if the "I'm not racist but...." crowd manage to squeeze out a narrow victory for Out. |
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| Author: | Bobbyaro [ Sat May 28, 2016 8:16 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
I am generally in, due to what cookie says about the free reign of Tories with no boundaries. However, the thought of Turkey joining the eu then having complete freedom of movement does concern me. That said, there is no chance of Britain being able to sway things they aren't inn the eu, so... |
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| Author: | TheVision [ Sat May 28, 2016 8:41 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
I think it'll be 55% in to 45% out. Lord Digby Jones told me that and if anyone would know, he would. |
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| Author: | Kern [ Sat May 28, 2016 8:41 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
I don't want an 'in' vote to be read by others as an endorsement of the way the EU is currently organised and run, or of any further moves towards deeper integration . But I don't want an 'out' vote to be seen as an endorsement of being against free movement of goods and people (heck, we need to make it easier for people to come from non-EU countries such as the US, Canada, NZ, Aus, etc). And I'm being increasingly turned off by both sides' campaigns. Increasingly tempted to just draw a stegosaurus on the ballot paper. |
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| Author: | Kern [ Sat May 28, 2016 8:42 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
TheVision wrote: 55% in to 45% out. That looks familiar.... 
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| Author: | TheVision [ Sat May 28, 2016 8:46 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Kern wrote: TheVision wrote: 55% in to 45% out. That looks familiar.... Have you been talking to Lord Digby Jones too then? |
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| Author: | Anonymous X [ Sat May 28, 2016 10:27 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Bobbyaro wrote: I am generally in, due to what cookie says about the free reign of Tories with no boundaries. However, the thought of Turkey joining the eu then having complete freedom of movement does concern me. That said, there is no chance of Britain being able to sway things they aren't inn the eu, so... Turkey aren't joining the EU. There's literally no possibility of that happening; Turkey haven't even formally applied, and it would take many years (decades) for Turkey to be fully treaty compliant, and their membership application could be easily vetoed. The Leave side are talking complete shit about Turkey and Ukraine joining the EU, basically. Those countries have tried to get association agreements with the EU for trade liberalisation reasons, and nothing else. |
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| Author: | myp [ Sat May 28, 2016 10:49 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
| Author: | Squirt [ Tue May 31, 2016 9:51 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Bookies seem to think we're staying in - Betfair reckons 3/10 for Remain, 33/10 for Leave, and others seem about the same. |
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| Author: | markg [ Tue May 31, 2016 10:08 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
I was reading an article about this the other day which basically pointed out that bookies are odds are heavily influenced by how people are betting, so to a large extent it's the wisdom of crowds but in this case the crowd are the bookies customers so they're nearly all going to be as thick as pigshit and habitually wrong about most things. |
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| Author: | Squirt [ Tue May 31, 2016 10:15 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
I've often thought you could tip some odds in your favour by working out what types of events have the odds swayed by dofusses ( doofi? ) and betting the other way. I'd imagine you could get favourable odds betting against the England football team in certain situations, for example. http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/ - this thinks we'll probably stay, but the "undecideds" are bigger than the margin between the two, so it could easily change. |
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| Author: | Kern [ Tue May 31, 2016 10:17 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
I'm trying to decide whether to buy some euros for my post-referendum trip to Paris now or wait a bit. I had planned to hold some over from my holiday but they were converted into lager on my last night. |
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| Author: | MaliA [ Tue May 31, 2016 10:21 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Squirt wrote: I've often thought you could tip some odds in your favour by working out what types of events have the odds swayed by dofusses ( doofi? ) and betting the other way. I'd imagine you could get favourable odds betting against the England football team in certain situations, for example. http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/ - this thinks we'll probably stay, but the "undecideds" are bigger than the margin between the two, so it could easily change. Friend of mine places a bet for Event A to happen, then elsewhere, places a lay bet against Event A happening. This apparently is risk free, so I am watching for any large purchases in the next few months. |
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| Author: | Cras [ Tue May 31, 2016 10:28 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Oddsmakers aren't stupid. It's rare that you'd, for example, bet on a coin toss and get 3:1 heads on one site and 3:1 tails on another. Covering both options on a two-way bet is unlikely to ever win you money. It's like betting on both red and black on roulette. |
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| Author: | Kern [ Tue May 31, 2016 10:28 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
MaliA wrote: This app are tly is risk free. Walking the length of Unter den Linden the other week I passed three separate games of 'Three Card Monte'. Wish I had had the courage to yell out my thoughts on that scam. |
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| Author: | MaliA [ Tue May 31, 2016 10:35 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Kern wrote: MaliA wrote: This app are tly is risk free. Walking the length of Unter den Linden the other week I passed three separate games of 'Three Card Monte'. Wish I had had the courage to yell out my thoughts on that scam. I would advise against that. |
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| Author: | MaliA [ Tue May 31, 2016 10:36 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Cras wrote: Oddsmakers aren't stupid. It's rare that you'd, for example, bet on a coin toss and get 3:1 heads on one site and 3:1 tails on another. Covering both options on a two-way bet is unlikely to ever win you money. It's like betting on both red and black on roulette. Isn't the most efficient betting strategy "go big or go home"? |
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| Author: | MaliA [ Tue May 31, 2016 10:37 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
markg wrote: I was reading an article about this the other day which basically pointed out that bookies are odds are heavily influenced by how people are betting, so to a large extent it's the wisdom of crowds but in this case the crowd are the bookies customers so they're nearly all going to be as thick as pigshit and habitually wrong about most things. I don't think people should be able to bet on events they can influence |
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| Author: | Cras [ Tue May 31, 2016 10:47 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
MaliA wrote: Cras wrote: Oddsmakers aren't stupid. It's rare that you'd, for example, bet on a coin toss and get 3:1 heads on one site and 3:1 tails on another. Covering both options on a two-way bet is unlikely to ever win you money. It's like betting on both red and black on roulette. Isn't the most efficient betting strategy "go big or go home"? Obviously. Otherwise known as "Commit, you shit!" |
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| Author: | Doctor Glyndwr [ Tue May 31, 2016 10:49 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
MaliA wrote: I don't think people should be able to bet on events they can influence If the bookies want to run the risk of taking some bets from people with insider knowledge, that's on them. No-one's forcing them to run the book. |
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| Author: | Kern [ Tue May 31, 2016 10:53 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Cras wrote: "Commit, you shit!" When I become a race horse owner, that's going to be the name of my Grand National winner. |
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| Author: | Curiosity [ Tue May 31, 2016 11:06 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Tempted to bet on Leave just to make some good money if my pick loses. Betting and laying off the bets is generally only possible where you know the odds will move before they actually move. Or might move. When I gambled more frequently I had a spreadsheet that did the math for me, so I knew when to hit the button for guaranteed profit. Betfair is full of bots doing just this. |
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| Author: | Mimi [ Tue May 31, 2016 11:10 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
I selected Option 6 because 'at all costs' is too far reaching in terms of realistic scope... I mean, at ALL costs? That would assume I was ok with mass destruction, death, etc in the name of staying in. I would, however, very much want us to stay in and can't presently think of an argument that would dissuade me. What is bothering me a bit, however, is the constant barrage of 'lol racists' posts from people who want to remain in being hurled at those who might vote to leave. Yes, I think that a good number are probably racist and/or xenophobic, but I don't know if it is so simple as to quickly tar everyone with the same brush to them point and laugh and feel all superior doing so because clearly then we are not racist and so better. I haven't seen much actual positive campaign being shared as to convince the leave side that they may be incorrect in the way the perception is being sold to them. Similarly I've not seen one single positive sell on why we should leave the EU from the brexit brigade. The who thing is being sold on fear from both sides. I hope that we remain and that our friends in Europe still welcome us in friendly terms for rocking the boat on unsteady waters once it is all calm again. I'm mostly worried that if we leave we will lose access to a lot of the good cheese. |
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| Author: | Mimi [ Tue May 31, 2016 11:13 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Curiosity wrote: Tempted to bet on Leave just to make some good money if my pick loses. Betting and laying off the bets is generally only possible where you know the odds will move before they actually move. Or might move. When I gambled more frequently I had a spreadsheet that did the math for me, so I knew when to hit the button for guaranteed profit. Betfair is full of bots doing just this. I keep thinking that. Yay, in! Continuing protection of my rights and welfare! Boo, out! But I have £30 |
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| Author: | Bobbyaro [ Tue May 31, 2016 11:16 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
It used to be that tennis was very good for this, someone has to win, and they are generally of different nationalities. In country 1, the locals bet for their player, driving the odds down, the same in country 2. bet on the opposite person in each country with different bookmakers. Not sure if that still happens anymore. |
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| Author: | MaliA [ Tue May 31, 2016 11:27 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Bobbyaro wrote: It used to be that tennis was very good for this, someone has to win, and they are generally of different nationalities. In country 1, the locals bet for their player, driving the odds down, the same in country 2. bet on the opposite person in each country with different bookmakers. Not sure if that still happens anymore. Tennis suffers a lot from odd betting patterns from Asia. Especially the lower tiers. Of the sport. |
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| Author: | Doctor Glyndwr [ Tue May 31, 2016 11:30 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
You know who else wanted a unified Europe at all costs? |
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| Author: | Kern [ Tue May 31, 2016 11:32 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Julius Ceaser |
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| Author: | MaliA [ Tue May 31, 2016 11:36 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Hamlet |
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| Author: | Curiosity [ Tue May 31, 2016 11:37 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Doctor Glyndwr wrote: You know who else wanted a unified Europe at all costs? Sepp Blatter? |
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| Author: | Grim... [ Tue May 31, 2016 11:43 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Doctor Glyndwr wrote: You know who else wanted a unified Europe at all costs? One of the people that works here and won't stop going on about it? |
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| Author: | myp [ Tue May 31, 2016 11:52 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Malc? |
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| Author: | MaliA [ Tue May 31, 2016 11:55 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Rhys Ifans |
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| Author: | Kern [ Tue May 31, 2016 11:55 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Grim... wrote: Doctor Glyndwr wrote: You know who else wanted a unified Europe at all costs? One of the people that works here and won't stop going on about it? Grim...'s colleague, yesterday: 
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| Author: | Cras [ Tue May 31, 2016 11:59 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Genghis Khan? |
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| Author: | MaliA [ Tue May 31, 2016 12:00 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Cras wrote: Genghis Khan? The Freud dude |
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| Author: | Mr Russell [ Tue May 31, 2016 12:05 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
MaliA wrote: Cras wrote: Genghis Khan? The Freud dude Freud's the guy who said that thing about saying one thing but meaning your mother. |
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| Author: | MaliA [ Tue May 31, 2016 12:10 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Mr Russell wrote: MaliA wrote: Cras wrote: Genghis Khan? The Freud dude Freud's the guy who said that thing about saying one thing but meaning your mother. Describe in single words only the good things that come into your mind about your mother. |
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| Author: | Mr Russell [ Tue May 31, 2016 12:13 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
MaliA wrote: Mr Russell wrote: MaliA wrote: Cras wrote: Genghis Khan? The Freud dude Freud's the guy who said that thing about saying one thing but meaning your mother. Describe in single words only the good things that come into your mind about your mother. Dead. |
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| Author: | Squirt [ Tue May 31, 2016 12:13 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Doctor Glyndwr wrote: You know who else wanted a unified Europe at all costs? Is it Dimrill? |
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| Author: | MaliA [ Tue May 31, 2016 12:15 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
Mr Russell wrote: MaliA wrote: Mr Russell wrote: MaliA wrote: Cras wrote: Genghis Khan? The Freud dude Freud's the guy who said that thing about saying one thing but meaning your mother. Describe in single words only the good things that come into your mind about your mother. Dead. Shit. Sorry, mate. |
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| Author: | Mr Russell [ Tue May 31, 2016 12:18 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
MaliA wrote: Mr Russell wrote: MaliA wrote: Mr Russell wrote: MaliA wrote: Cras wrote: Genghis Khan? The Freud dude Freud's the guy who said that thing about saying one thing but meaning your mother. Describe in single words only the good things that come into your mind about your mother. Dead. Shit. Sorry, mate. It's ok, it was 27 years ago. |
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| Author: | myp [ Tue May 31, 2016 12:25 ] |
| Post subject: | Re: EU in or out? |
He did say 'only the good things' tbf. |
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