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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:35 
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Whoa, look at the body language between May and Juncker

https://twitter.com/philipsime/status/1 ... 4095739904




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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:39 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Whoa, look at the body language between May and Juncker

https://twitter.com/philipsime/status/1 ... 4095739904




In. The. Palm. Of. Our. Hand.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:41 
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Remember folks, we hold all the cards!


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 13:12 
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I think you’re reading too much into it to be fair - she always looks like that.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 14:32 
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Soopah red DS

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There are times when I really feel for Theresa May. Not sure why, I only have to think of the things she's done and I don't exactly wish her well, but god, heading to the EU to talk this shit through? Hideous job.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 14:51 
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Nah, I don't normally lack empathy but I'm not remotely interested in feeling any for that fucker. Anyway she'll be fine once it's done, whatever fucking hideous mess her and the rest of her shitty party manage to make of the country. The rest of us less so, probably.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 14:53 
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markg wrote:
Nah, I don't normally lack empathy but I'm not remotely interested in feeling any for that fucker. Anyway she'll be fine once it's done, whatever fucking hideous mess her and the rest of her shitty party manage to make of the country. The rest of us less so, probably.


:this:

http://politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/12/07/ ... e-to-roost

Quote:
It is quite wrong to feel pity for her. Firstly, her current misery is of her own making. The deal is terrible because her red lines made any other outcome impossible. That is her responsibility. Secondly, she is still now lying with almost every word she utters. Her entire defence of the deal rests on the most grotesquely misleading characterisations of its contents and implications. Her every answer to any question is deliberately and instinctively evasive. She is a deception machine, a next-generation political mechanism which simply cannot be straight with people, whether it's negotiators in Brussels, MPs in parliament, or the public on the doorstep. The fact she is so unconvincing when lying does not remove the moral responsibility for having done so in the first place.

And now all the various inadequacies we've seen through the last couple of years have joined together to undermine any chance of success she might have had. It would be satisfying, on a moral level, if we were not all forced to suffer the consequences alongside her.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 14:58 
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Agree. She's reaping what she sowed. I have no sympathy for her.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 15:06 
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I also agree.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 15:24 
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The darker, grittier reboot of Praisebot is quite something.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 15:37 
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Wow, Hurtily has joined Twitter and bought a TV that outputs full HD in the same year! In *looks at notes* 2018?

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 15:38 
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Kern wrote:
The darker, grittier reboot of Praisebot is quite something.


I'm glad you like it.

It's something audiences have been after for sometime. Hopefully 2019 will develop into a "Will he, won't he" type scenario and we should see some good returns at the box office once the story really gets going.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 16:15 
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A nice article spelling out the nonsense of the concept a 'World Trade Organisation Deal':

https://www.explaintrade.com/blogs/2018 ... trade-deal

And one of those Twitter 'thread' things along similar lines:

https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/sta ... 4545363973




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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 19:02 
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@uk_domain_names. :facepalm:

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 19:19 
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Grim... wrote:
Findus Fop wrote:
A b3tarchitect.

What was/is your b3ta username? I never had one, 100% lurkage.

"Grim...", I think. "Grimdotdotdot" maybe.

I haven't posted for years.

I made the newsletter once.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 20:56 
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Soopah red DS

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Hearthly wrote:
A nice article spelling out the nonsense of the concept a 'World Trade Organisation Deal':

https://www.explaintrade.com/blogs/2018 ... trade-deal


Quote:
Referring to falling from the heights of the Single Market to the paltry safety net offered by baseline WTO commitments as a “World Trade Deal” is a brilliant piece of branding. It’s like if your mother threw you out and you re-branded ‘being homeless in Greater London’ as ‘living on a 1,583 square kilometer property with plenty of natural light.’


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2018 12:43 
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GazChap wrote:
Grim... wrote:
Findus Fop wrote:
A b3tarchitect.

What was/is your b3ta username? I never had one, 100% lurkage.

"Grim...", I think. "Grimdotdotdot" maybe.

I haven't posted for years.

I made the newsletter once.

I did that a few times. Space Cows, Savages and Quite the Hike got in, and I placed in a few image challenges.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2018 17:52 
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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:52 
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I really need to go cold turkey on the world for a bit.

This whole article about trailing Mrs May's speech is an example of why I just find myself doing angry old person stuff and yelling at the radio.

Quote:
"Another vote which would do irreparable damage to the integrity of our politics, because it would say to millions who trusted in democracy, that our democracy does not deliver.


No, that's not how it works. Here's an idea, something I'd expect that a strong leader would do. You could just say "we didn't know what form Brexit would take, but based on the hard work we've done, this is the only approach that it is feasible. I'm sorry it doesn't meet all the promises the Leave side/Boris Johnson made, but as Prime Minister both myself and my government have to work in reality." It's open, it's honest, it shows you've listened and tried.

But no. We need to have faith.

And yet, does she really have anything less to lose right now? Does she really want to be known for this? How is that 'legacy' stuff working out for Tony Blair and David Cameron?


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:38 
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ugvm'er at heart...

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The rhetoric seems to be turning towards a second vote as far as I can tell, once you drill down past all the posturing.

Extension of article 50, new referendum in march, vote to stay in. That's my prediction.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:44 
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I can't imagine how vile the debate and the atmosphere in the whole country would become if that happened. Honestly would prefer some sort of a fudge of a deal and then another referendum in ten years.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:46 
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I have to say, I have some empathy for the people saying a second vote would be undemocratic. It must seem to them that we can just keep on having referendums until the result "they" desire wins.

If we'd voted remain and the prospect of a second vote was looming, I'd be livid.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:50 
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How many people voted to crash out with a no deal though? I guess we’d need a multi-answer second ref, not just a rerun of the first.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:57 
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Lonewolves wrote:
How many people voted to crash out with a no deal though? I guess we’d need a multi-answer second ref, not just a rerun of the first.

Quite a lot, I'd imagine.

I honestly think the result of a second vote would still be 'leave'.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:59 
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Grim... wrote:
I have to say, I have some empathy for the people saying a second vote would be undemocratic. It must seem to them that we can just keep on having referendums until the result "they" desire wins.


Yes, that is a real concern. I think the case for a vote in this situation is made easier due to the openness of the original question. No plan for 'leave' was ever put to the public, and indeed the lovely Dominic Cummings has been quite open that this was deliberate. Due to this, we can only say that the public gave a direction, but not a destination.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:01 
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Grim... wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:
How many people voted to crash out with a no deal though? I guess we’d need a multi-answer second ref, not just a rerun of the first.

Quite a lot, I'd imagine.

I honestly think the result of a second vote would still be 'leave'.


The main calculation is that sufficient number of leave voters will be dead and a sufficient number of remain-voting new voters will turn out at the ballot box on the day.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:02 
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Grim... wrote:
I have to say, I have some empathy for the people saying a second vote would be undemocratic. It must seem to them that we can just keep on having referendums until the result "they" desire wins.

If we'd voted remain and the prospect of a second vote was looming, I'd be livid.


Of course, that doesn't make it undemocratic. If the result changes, then public opinion has changed, therefore it's very democratic. If the result doesn't change, then public opinion is confirmed, also very democratic.

It's not like somebody would be forcing leavers to vote differently in a second ref.

The results of a vote don't just magically change on their own.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:03 
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In a three way referendum (NO DEAL / MAY'S DEAL / REMAIN) you might find Remain gets the most votes so 'wins', but it is still in the minority overall.

The whole thing is a fucking shitshow of biblical proportions.

For some folks this is where the debate is at.

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Screenshot 2018-12-17 at 10.02.36.png


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:05 
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I agree with Grim... I think that the new Leave campaign would make almost no mention of the benefits of leaving the EU and would instead frame it as a question of democracy. And they would win.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:07 
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markg wrote:
I agree with Grim... I think that the new Leave campaign would make almost no mention of the benefits of leaving the EU and would instead frame it as a question of democracy. And they would win.


At which point we may as well just burn down the whole country because words don’t mean anything any more.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:09 
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Referendums are still a peculiar novelty to our constitution and we don't really have the experience or conventions yet in this country to handle them wisely.

Major constitutional change ought to be difficult to achieve. 52% on a vague term is not a mandate for big change, and should be treated as such.

I'm not saying this as a sore remoaner who isn't getting his way, but as someone who enjoys constitutions. Buy me a drink and I'll tell you about my favourites.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:11 
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Hearthly wrote:
In a three way referendum (NO DEAL / MAY'S DEAL / REMAIN) you might find Remain gets the most votes so 'wins', but it is still in the minority overall.


Time to drag out all my old notes on voting paradoxes and systems...

Giphy "party time!":
https://media0.giphy.com/media/yoJC2GnSClbPOkV0eA/giphy-loop.mp4


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:17 
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Hearthly wrote:
For some folks this is where the debate is at.


You know, I'm starting to think that perhaps it was just about xenophobia all along.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:26 
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Cras wrote:
Grim... wrote:
I have to say, I have some empathy for the people saying a second vote would be undemocratic. It must seem to them that we can just keep on having referendums until the result "they" desire wins.

If we'd voted remain and the prospect of a second vote was looming, I'd be livid.


Of course, that doesn't make it undemocratic. If the result changes, then public opinion has changed, therefore it's very democratic. If the result doesn't change, then public opinion is confirmed, also very democratic.

It's not like somebody would be forcing leavers to vote differently in a second ref.

The results of a vote don't just magically change on their own.

Yeah, good luck getting all the leave voters to see things that way.

If a second referendum went remain it would be an absolute gift for the far right in this country.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:38 
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markg wrote:
Cras wrote:
Grim... wrote:
I have to say, I have some empathy for the people saying a second vote would be undemocratic. It must seem to them that we can just keep on having referendums until the result "they" desire wins.

If we'd voted remain and the prospect of a second vote was looming, I'd be livid.


Of course, that doesn't make it undemocratic. If the result changes, then public opinion has changed, therefore it's very democratic. If the result doesn't change, then public opinion is confirmed, also very democratic.

It's not like somebody would be forcing leavers to vote differently in a second ref.

The results of a vote don't just magically change on their own.

Yeah, good luck getting all the leave voters to see things that way.

If a second referendum went remain it would be an absolute gift for the far right in this country.


Maybe, but just waving through a hard Brexit would be a significantly larger gift.

Appeasement is not a great strategy to try to defeat something.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:52 
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Grim... wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:
How many people voted to crash out with a no deal though? I guess we’d need a multi-answer second ref, not just a rerun of the first.

Quite a lot, I'd imagine.

How many of those think 'no deal' means nothing changes?


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:57 
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Curiosity wrote:
markg wrote:
Cras wrote:
Grim... wrote:
I have to say, I have some empathy for the people saying a second vote would be undemocratic. It must seem to them that we can just keep on having referendums until the result "they" desire wins.

If we'd voted remain and the prospect of a second vote was looming, I'd be livid.


Of course, that doesn't make it undemocratic. If the result changes, then public opinion has changed, therefore it's very democratic. If the result doesn't change, then public opinion is confirmed, also very democratic.

It's not like somebody would be forcing leavers to vote differently in a second ref.

The results of a vote don't just magically change on their own.

Yeah, good luck getting all the leave voters to see things that way.

If a second referendum went remain it would be an absolute gift for the far right in this country.


Maybe, but just waving through a hard Brexit would be a significantly larger gift.

Appeasement is not a great strategy to try to defeat something.

The idea that we can have a second referendum and put things back to how they were before all this happened is some daydreamy bullshit, whichever way the vote went the country would be a toxic dump with no end in sight. But leaving with no deal would be a disaster, if it becomes a choice between that and another referendum then we should have another referendum.

On the other hand a deal which ends up giving them departure from the EU pretty much in name only and ends up with us rejoining after a referendum in a decade's time is not "appeasement", it's the only way I can think of to possibly get the fuckers back under the rocks from which they crawled.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:00 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Grim... wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:
How many people voted to crash out with a no deal though? I guess we’d need a multi-answer second ref, not just a rerun of the first.

Quite a lot, I'd imagine.

How many of those think 'no deal' means nothing changes?


Far too many. I'm sure that at least half of those who voted Leave still think that No Deal means we simply cease to be part of the EU and everything goes on as normal. All of the negatives about No Deal are dismissed by them as Project Fear.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:08 
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markg wrote:
But leaving with no deal would be a disaster, if it becomes a choice between that and another referendum then we should have another referendum.
Leaving philosophy aside, this might be a very practical reason to have another referendum. The UK will leave the EU with no deal by automatic operation of the law in 102 days. Currently there seems to be no credible way forward to break the logjam in Parliament and do anything to avoid that fate. A second referendum may be required to do so.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:10 
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Four_Candles wrote:
Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Grim... wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:
How many people voted to crash out with a no deal though? I guess we’d need a multi-answer second ref, not just a rerun of the first.

Quite a lot, I'd imagine.

How many of those think 'no deal' means nothing changes?


Far too many. I'm sure that at least half of those who voted Leave still think that No Deal means we simply cease to be part of the EU and everything goes on as normal. All of the negatives about No Deal are dismissed by them as Project Fear.
This is what I mean, at this particular juncture any next steps must take into account the absolute fucking state of public debate and not be based around how we would like things to be. It's awful really but that's where we are.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:12 
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ugvm'er at heart...

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markg wrote:
leaving with no deal would be a disaster, if it becomes a choice between that and another referendum then we should have another referendum.



That's exactly what will happen, parliament will vote down the deal as it stands, the EU won't change the terms, the only option is no deal and the referendum will be stay in or leave with no deal.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:13 
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Trooper wrote:
markg wrote:
leaving with no deal would be a disaster, if it becomes a choice between that and another referendum then we should have another referendum.



That's exactly what will happen, parliament will vote down the deal as it stands, the EU won't change the terms, the only option is no deal and the referendum will be stay in or leave with no deal.

And we'll leave with no deal.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:16 
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Trooper wrote:
markg wrote:
leaving with no deal would be a disaster, if it becomes a choice between that and another referendum then we should have another referendum.



That's exactly what will happen, parliament will vote down the deal as it stands, the EU won't change the terms, the only option is no deal and the referendum will be stay in or leave with no deal.


A referendum requires legislation. There's next to no time left to pass it.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:17 
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Cras wrote:
A referendum requires legislation. There's next to no time left to pass it.

It seems likely the EU will extend A50 notification period for a referendum, was my understanding.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:25 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Cras wrote:
A referendum requires legislation. There's next to no time left to pass it.

It seems likely the EU will extend A50 notification period for a referendum, was my understanding.


Yeah, that's my prediction (which I already mentioned but Cras has me on selective ignore ;) )


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:26 
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markg wrote:
Trooper wrote:
markg wrote:
leaving with no deal would be a disaster, if it becomes a choice between that and another referendum then we should have another referendum.



That's exactly what will happen, parliament will vote down the deal as it stands, the EU won't change the terms, the only option is no deal and the referendum will be stay in or leave with no deal.

And we'll leave with no deal.


I have more hope than that... not much more, but just enough.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:29 
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I know they aren't the force they were for public opinion but I wonder where the papers would fall on it.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:55 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Cras wrote:
A referendum requires legislation. There's next to no time left to pass it.

It seems likely the EU will extend A50 notification period for a referendum, was my understanding.


But they have confirmed we can cancel it unilaterally.
We could in theory send them the cancellation notice, then a day later another notification of leaving. It’ll piss everyone off, but would be a way of deferring everything for two more years.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:58 
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Dr Zoidberg wrote:
Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Cras wrote:
A referendum requires legislation. There's next to no time left to pass it.

It seems likely the EU will extend A50 notification period for a referendum, was my understanding.


But they have confirmed we can cancel it unilaterally.
We could in theory send them the cancellation notice, then a day later another notification of leaving. It’ll piss everyone off, but would be a way of deferring everything for two more years.


They have confirmed we can cancel it unilaterally if we demonstrate that we no longer wish to leave. Specifically to avoid the scenario you state.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:59 
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Commander-in-Cheese

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Cras wrote:
A referendum requires legislation. There's next to no time left to pass it.

It seems likely the EU will extend A50 notification period for a referendum, was my understanding.


Sure. But you still have to agree on a referendum definitely happening then apply for an extension before 29th March.

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GoddessJasmine wrote:
Drunk, pulled Craster's pork, waiting for brdyime story,reading nuts. Xz


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