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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 13:51 
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Lonewolves wrote:
Cras wrote:
Right. But not ones with Westminster seats.

But they're still Irish and an Irish political party. So I don't see your point.


That you said "the Irish" aren't on our side then went on to talk about Sinn Fein, as if they were representative of the population of the Republic of Ireland, despite being a minority single-issue party.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 19:06 
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Lonewolves wrote:
Sinn Fein are an Irish political party!

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 23:08 
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https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ip-446262/

Thomas Cook has added a Brexit clause to their booking terms and conditions. Reserves the right to cancel any trip after March 2019 if they cannot operate due to our loss of access to the Open Skies agreement. If that happens, I imagine they keep your money — the risk is on the consumer, not the agent. And your travel insurance won’t be interested either I suspect. Caveat emptor.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 23:21 
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Having worked in travel, I imagine they’re absolutely bricking it about what this will do to bookings.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 19:17 
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Oh :(

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/ ... 0170501120



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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 20:04 
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Forecast schmorecast! We've had enough of experts.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 15:08 
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https://news.sky.com/story/boards-of-do ... q-11289411

Unilever's board is meeting today and is expected to vote to move its HQ from the UK to Holland.

There are mitigating factors; one is that under Dutch corporate law, it can use legal defences against hostile takeovers, like the one last year from Heinz that it narrowly escaped. And few job losses are expected as the UK office will continue, albeit as a satellite. It's still an uncomfortable symbol of a diminished Brexit Britain though.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:36 
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https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/ ... 3149585409




Taking back control of our borders by not having any.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:50 
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The government are probably remembering the 2000 fuel crisis and how bad pictures of lorries not moving will be for their popularity.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:53 
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Kern wrote:
The government are probably remembering the 2000 fuel crisis and how bad pictures of lorries not moving will be for their popularity.


Fun fact: I was in Majorca when that was on and had my photo taken for use in the Virgin Sun holiday brochure!

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:56 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/974587573149585409

Taking back control of our borders by not having any.


The government is terrified, isn't it? Chickens coming home to roost.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:58 
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Kern wrote:
The government are probably remembering the 2000 fuel crisis and how bad pictures of lorries not moving will be for their popularity.


https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/ ... 2638109696




If it's not reciprocal, we're just gonna have outbound lorries stuck instead of inbound.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 13:22 
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Kern wrote:
The government are probably remembering the 2000 fuel crisis and how bad pictures of lorries not moving will be for their popularity.

I learned the other week about Operation Stack and I can well imagine that it's going to become rather more commonplace after we officially leave...


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 13:51 
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Isn't that lovely?

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https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/ ... 9904645120



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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 13:52 
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I'm still digesting this but... some actual OK news about the Brexit process, I think?

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/ ... 7399945217




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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 14:11 
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There's a concern that they've basically just once again kicked the Ireland can further down the road, but it's certainly progress.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 14:28 
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Cras wrote:
There's a concern that they've basically just once again kicked the Ireland can further down the road, but it's certainly progress.

It does appear we've capitulated on some major issues eg. EU nationals arriving in the UK during the transition period. It'll be interesting to see what the Brexit press make of it.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 15:07 
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Erm...

https://www.ft.com/content/d0fc0ef2-2a0 ... 4b9f08f381

Quote:
Britain’s aviation regulator is doing no preparatory work to take over responsibilities from the EU’s watchdog, EASA, after Brexit, as “it would be misleading to suggest that’s a viable option”.

The striking comment was made by the chief executive of the Civil Aviation Authority in testimony to parliament’s cross-party business committee, which on Monday publishes its findings on the impact of Brexit on the aerospace sector. 

The MPs conclude that the UK’s buoyant aerospace sector would be irreparably damaged if it did not remain deeply integrated in Europe’s regulatory and manufacturing hubs after Britain leaves the EU. 


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“There is no trade-off between close harmonisation with the EU and access to markets beyond the EU. Instead, the two goals are complementary,” the report states. 

While MPs welcomed the prime minister’s statement that the UK hoped to remain in EASA, even as a non-voting member, they stressed that the government should push for as much influence as possible. 

That call was backed up by Rolls-Royce, the world’s second largest aero-engine maker. A non-voting “associate membership” would be “better than nothing”, a spokesman said. But he added: “We strongly believe it is in the UK’s interest to retain its ability to shape future regulation where it will impact British businesses, and we are working with the government towards that aim.” 

Given the just-in-time supply chains operated by the industry, even border delays of a few hours could materially undermine UK competitiveness

Cross-party report
MPs also sounded alarm bells over the lack of clarity on transition arrangements, noting that several companies were preparing to take “costly and disruptive” contingency measures, such as stockpiling inventory, which could affect the sector’s competitiveness. 

“It is in the interests of the UK and the EU27 that both sides . . . reach a firm agreement in the coming weeks on the arrangements for a transition,” they say. 

They reiterate the industry’s own estimate that increased checks at the customs and immigration alone could add an extra £1.5bn in cost to a sector that depends on people and components being able to cross borders several times and at short notice. 

Airbus, for example, has a two-hour turnround for its Beluga jet that flies wings from its factory in Wales for integration on aircraft in Toulouse or Hamburg. 

“Given the just-in-time supply chains operated by the industry, even border delays of a few hours could materially undermine UK competitiveness,” the report states. 

The analysis is the third in the select committee’s investigation into the impact of leaving the EU on specific sectors of the economy. MPs point out that aerospace employs 114,000 people at global companies such as Airbus, Rolls-Royce, Bombardier and GKN.

The report stresses that the sector, which accounts for 0.7 per cent of total UK output and 7 per cent of manufacturing, is one of the UK’s most productive. Output per employee is 18 per cent higher than the average in manufacturing — and 49 per cent higher than the economy as a whole. Just under half of the annual £32bn revenue is exported. 

“UK aerospace exports are highly dependent on participation in the European and global supply chain,” the report states. 

Maintaining the sector’s competitiveness would also depend on the UK’s continued participation in EU research and development projects, which would also help to ensure access to European funding and cross-border collaboration.

Recommended
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Winners and losers in an EU-UK free trade agreement
The UK is a net beneficiary from EU research and innovation funding, with the aerospace sector receiving some £100m a year from the Horizon 2020 programme, MPs say. 

Industry welcomed the MPs’ conclusions. Paul Everitt, chief executive of ADS, the industry trade body, said time was running out to give the industry clarity before investment would begin to be affected.

“It is vital that the UK and EU27 agree a comprehensive transition agreement as soon as possible, to give industry the breathing space it needs to adjust to the new long-term partnership arrangements,” he said. 

The Aerospace Technology Institute also stressed that if the UK wanted to win new work on the next wave of aircraft programmes it was important to maintain participation in the so-called “demonstrator” projects that would determine future technology choices. “Continued engagement with Europe in science and technology, both at academic and industrial level, is essential to maintaining the UK’s competitiveness,” said Gary Elliott chief executive.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 15:32 
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One step forward, two steps back. :(

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 18:23 
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Farage already calling the PM 'Theresa the Appeaser' which would be quite funny under different circumstances.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 22:53 
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Can you dig it?

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On a personal level and this is really quite trivial but sums up the disconnect; playing Words with Friends against a stranger, and as we are chatting they mention how they'd like to move out to Southern Europe, somewhere warmer than Manchester, and maybe to retire there, even though they voted to leave :facepalm:

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 12:33 
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Cras wrote:
There's a concern that they've basically just once again kicked the Ireland can further down the road, but it's certainly progress.

There isn't an awful lot of road left is there? Everything has to be fully signed and sealed by this time next year, which surely means it has to be basically done within 6 months to allow for all the ratification that needs to take place. I can't see anything happening by then that will prevent the fallback position of Northern Ireland remaining in the CU/SI. God only knows what will happen when May formally announces the arrangements for that.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 13:44 
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I think the chances of May formally announcing anything are pretty slim.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Mar 22, 2018 16:12 
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https://www.ft.com/content/f1411812-21f ... itStory3UK

Quote:
EU rejects UK’s plans for post-Brexit trade relationship
Brussels instructs negotiators to take austere approach to trade talks

The EU has forcefully rebuffed Theresa May’s vision for trade after Brexit, laying out a narrow view of future relations with the UK and warning of the “negative economic consequences” of her choices.

Donald Tusk, the European Council president, circulated draft guidelines instructing EU negotiators to take an austere approach, with severely limited arrangements for services and regulatory co-operation. No mention of financial services is made.

“The European Council has to take into account the repeatedly stated positions of the UK, which limit the depth of such a future partnership. Being outside the customs union and the single market will inevitably lead to frictions,” the guidelines state.

“Divergence in external tariffs and internal rules as well as absence of common institutions and a shared legal system, necessitates checks and controls to uphold the integrity of the EU Single Market as well as of the UK market. This unfortunately will have negative economic consequences.”

The guidelines running to 5-6 pages are the most detailed presentation yet of the EU’s goals for future relations, cast as a response to London’s proposals. It sketches an economic relationship based around a free-trade agreement that could maintain zero tariffs and quotas on goods, but stops short of the kind of “dynamic” alignment of market rules sought by Britain.

The text says any future UK-EU relationship should be overseen by the European Court of Justice in cases of dispute settlement, which will also include the possibility of “sanctions and cross retaliation measures”.

It also rules out prime minister May’s desire for Britian to stay part of EU agencies such as the European Medicines Agency after Brexit. “The Union will preserve its autonomy as regards its decision-making, which excludes participation of the United Kingdom as a third-country to EU Institutions, agencies or bodies”, says the draft.

The guidelines are the EU27’s first attempt to sketch out a vision for a future EU-UK trade relationship and are subject to negotiation,

EU leaders are pressing Ms May for more clarity on her demands. The text states that should the UK’s position “evolve”, the EU “will be prepared to reconsider its offer”.

Other side agreements would seek to maintain as close a relationship as possible with a non-EU member across justice, security, aviation and fisheries.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Mar 22, 2018 16:16 
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The text states that should the UK’s position “evolve”, the EU “will be prepared to reconsider its offer”.


That's as close to saying 'for fuck's sake you should have some idea by now' as is diplomatically possible.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Mar 22, 2018 16:21 
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If we could somehow harness Barnier's endless inner screaming for good, we could generate clean energy for the power.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:55 
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The Daily Mail is losing its mind over the blue passports being manufactured in France. I thought they wanted to open our trade up to the world? Very confusing.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:07 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
The Daily Mail is losing its mind over the blue passports being manufactured in France. I thought they wanted to open our trade up to the world? Very confusing.


Why would its readers want passports anyway?
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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:17 
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Watching Leavers turn on Hannan in the replies to this: A+++ would schadenfreude again.

https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/statu ... 4232166400




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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:20 
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Damn those Hanoverians for giving up our claim to the French throne and removing it from the Royal Arms. That would have really shown 'em.

But hey, every 'Great Free Trade Deal' (TM ) we get will include open procurement rules.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:23 
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It wouldn't have been an issue had a previous Tory administration privatised their production.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:24 
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I imagine British companies mint it from open procurement. We've got the sort of high-end services industry that must be constantly getting contracts from other governments for legal / financial / consultancy services.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:26 
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Squirt wrote:
I imagine British companies mint it from open procurement. We've got the sort of high-end services industry that must be constantly getting contracts from other governments for legal / financial / consultancy services.


This. Just as other countries' industries get contracts to run our services.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:26 
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Squirt wrote:
I imagine British companies mint it from open procurement. We've got the sort of high-end services industry that must be constantly getting contracts from other governments for legal / financial / consultancy services.

And long may our ability to export these services into the EU's expansive free trade area continue!

::finger in ear::

Wait, I'm getting some breaking news from our producers... Oh. Oh dear.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:07 
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A very level-headed take from The Sun though, credit where it's due:

https://twitter.com/sarahoconnor_/statu ... 5800401920




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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:10 
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Does that £12m take into account the taxes that are lost?

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:12 
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Grim... wrote:
Does that £12m take into account the taxes that are lost?

I doubt it, but if you spend that £12m on nurses you generate more tax revenue through them. So it's not unreasonable to ignore it. You can handwave about corporation tax paid by the British passport firm, I suppose, but then you can also put the opportunity costs of not having enough nurses on the other side of the ledger if you really want to go down this rabbit hole.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:12 
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Wait. I pay £80 for a new passport. Who's saving the £120 million?

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:25 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Grim... wrote:
Does that £12m take into account the taxes that are lost?

I doubt it, but if you spend that £12m on nurses you generate more tax revenue through them. So it's not unreasonable to ignore it. You can handwave about corporation tax paid by the British passport firm, I suppose, but then you can also put the opportunity costs of not having enough nurses on the other side of the ledger if you really want to go down this rabbit hole.

Like the money will go to nurses ;)

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:29 
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Grim... wrote:
Like the money will go to nurses ;)

It will, of course, go on tax breaks for the 1% who will invest that money wisely to create jobs and make us all richer :)

My point is your original post is a variation on the broken windows fallacy. It's not typically a good idea to pay £120m extra for the same service merely to receive the secondary economic effects it will generate. Working out where this overlaps with Keynesian stimuli is an exercise for the reader.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 13:00 
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Who would've thought hardcore Brexiteers were also protectionist too

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 13:18 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Grim... wrote:
Like the money will go to nurses ;)

It will, of course, go on tax breaks for the 1% who will invest that money wisely to create jobs and make us all richer :)

My point is your original post is a variation on the broken windows fallacy. It's not typically a good idea to pay £120m extra for the same service merely to receive the secondary economic effects it will generate. Working out where this overlaps with Keynesian stimuli is an exercise for the reader.

My point was merely "it's complicated".

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 17:37 
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You can’t take the tax revenue into account because if you were to do so, you’re assuming that no economic activity would be generated in its place by those people. That’s not a reasonable assertion in a near full employment economy.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 17:39 
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ApplePieOfDestiny wrote:
You can’t take the tax revenue into account because if you were to do so, you’re assuming that no economic activity would be generated in its place by those people. That’s not a reasonable assertion in a near full employment economy.

This is literally what I said.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 17:43 
Filthy Junkie Bitch

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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
ApplePieOfDestiny wrote:
You can’t take the tax revenue into account because if you were to do so, you’re assuming that no economic activity would be generated in its place by those people. That’s not a reasonable assertion in a near full employment economy.

This is literally what I said.

I have no idea how I missed your post.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 23:44 
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Oh, Jeremy Corbyn. Stop sacking the people who are saying the right things.

BBC: Jeremy Corbyn sacks Labour's Owen Smith over referendum call

Oh, Jeremy Corbyn.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Mar 25, 2018 10:50 
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This country is ridiculous.

https://twitter.com/HenryTribe/status/9 ... 7315217408




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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Mar 27, 2018 10:13 
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amazing


Quote:
Consider the Conservative MP Nadine Dorries, revealed in a leaked WhatsApp exchange to have asked colleagues to explain the EU customs union to her because she was having problems defending her widely stated opposition to it. This is an almost perfect distillation of what happens when furious ignorance is afforded the same weight as evidence-based explication. Having received the required explanation, incidentally, Dorries concluded that her difficulty understanding it fully justified her opposition to membership of it.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Mar 27, 2018 19:51 
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Let's leave the EU and take back control!

https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/9 ... 1265872899




Oh.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:03 
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Yes; that chimes with (if slightly different) a Beeb programme which looked into fishing rights and found the UK had sold - as I remember it - 90% of their fishing rights to 3 overseas companies. Rounded up from 88 and 3 became 1?

Some of those companies might have been in the EU, but none of it was because of the EU. Almost as if an over-literal implementation of rules and an ideological commitment to markets above all else were to blame, rather than the EU.

It is beyond bizarre that the fishermen in, say, Whitstable harbour didn't seem to have any idea about all this, and put up various messages thanking people for their support after the vote.


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