Taking the Brexit

Cavey · **Posted:** Fri Oct 27, 2017 16:34

Cras wrote:

Doubt it. Spanish direct rule imposed within a couple of days and the Catalan parliament dissolved, is my guess.

Mate, they were firing rubber bullets and beating up women in the street over this. Do you honestly think this is going to resolve that quietly, and the nationalists will just suck it up and accept direct rule, and the dissolution of their entire devolved Parliament?

I mean, shit, I hope so in many ways, but personally I reckon Two Hopes. Like I've said, this shit just got real, big style.

As for the UK not recognising Catalonia? Well, we'll see. Extortion can work both ways; it's a dangerous game to play.

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49232

Ooh god, it'd be an incredibly risky move for us to threaten support for Catalonia as a negotiating tactic. Insanely risky.

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

Regarding Brexiteers getting upset about Catalonia... are they objecting to when the EU interferes too much in the affairs of sovereign nations (eg. bendy bananas) or not enough (eg. stopping Madrid from quelling riots)? I can't figure it out. Seems like the EU leaving Spain alone to do whatever it wants is what Brexiteers want, because sovereignty is important.

Cavey · **Posted:** Fri Oct 27, 2017 16:54

@Cras
Things can be very gently alluded to. The EU don’t have a monopoly on hardball.

It’s very early to say what could drop out of this opportunities-wise, but we should watch with interest. Can’t see it helping the Euro much either, and the EU risks disunity right when that’s the very last thing it needs.

Butterkist on standby.

Squirt · **Joined:** 31st Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 6515

Step 1. UK recognises independent Catalonia
Step 2. Spain recognises independent Scotland in retribution
...
Step 45. The Confederacy recognises the primacy of the Merovingian Empire over the Kingdom of the Lombards. Cornwall still not independent.

Cavey · **Posted:** Fri Oct 27, 2017 17:03

Squirt wrote:

Step 1. UK recognises independent Catalonia
Step 2. Spain recognises independent Scotland in retribution
...
Step 45. The Confederacy recognises the primacy of the Merovingian Empire over the Kingdom of the Lombards. Cornwall still not independent.

Only one little problem with that analysis: despite the 'vicarious joyriding' of some of the swivel-eyed hardcore Cybernat Twitterati in respect of the Catalans, Scotland voted to stay in the UK by a landslide 11-points in 2014's free vote, with no Police firing projectiles on the streets - and the SNP's popularity has long since peaked, as evidenced by their GE performance and subsequent polls (including in respect of a second referendum, which even they've shelved). So really, not much point in recognising something that doesn't exist. So as counter threats go, it's pretty pants.

Doubt we'll be hearing much about Gibraltar for a while, eh.

Squirt · **Joined:** 31st Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 6515

I don't think Spain would retaliate in that way, but I do think they could throw a spanner in the works in all kinds of different ways, not least over the Spain / Gibraltar border.

Cavey · **Posted:** Fri Oct 27, 2017 17:17

Yup, it's a dangerous game to play, but then so is demanding £50,000,000,000 entry charge for something that you don't even yet know what it's going to be, and may actually be shit - and flat refusing to allow any discussion until said extortionate fee is agreed to. So yeah. High stakes all round, then.

Kern · **Posted:** Fri Oct 27, 2017 17:19

Our key alliance in this sphere is with Portugal so we should watch their positioning on this carefully.

Cavey · **Posted:** Fri Oct 27, 2017 17:21

Kern wrote:

Our key alliance in this sphere is with Portugal so we should watch their positioning on this carefully.

Heh. Funny how some things never change down the centuries, eh.

Squirt · **Joined:** 31st Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 6515

Kern wrote:

Our key alliance in this sphere is with Portugal so we should watch their positioning on this carefully.

Do you think we can use this as an opportunity to retake Menorca?

Kern · **Posted:** Fri Oct 27, 2017 17:28

Squirt wrote:

Kern wrote:

Our key alliance in this sphere is with Portugal so we should watch their positioning on this carefully.

Do you think we can use this as an opportunity to retake Menorca?

Only if we can install Timmy Mallet as governor.

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49232

Well we've officially said no to recognition.

Kern · **Posted:** Fri Oct 27, 2017 19:28

Cras wrote:

Well we've officially said no to recognition.

Meanwhile, we've got our finest agents opening secret lines to the Catalans:

MaliA · **Posted:** Fri Oct 27, 2017 23:47

Kern wrote:

Cras wrote:

Well we've officially said no to recognition.

Meanwhile, we've got our finest agents opening secret lines to the Catalans:

Brilliant

Cavey · **Posted:** Tue Oct 31, 2017 18:32

Puigdemont has 'done one' and messed off to Belgium, by the looks.
So, damp squib it is then.

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

How is it possible people are still so badly informed.

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

If the brexiteers surveyed there are correct, there's no reason not to release the DExEU impact assessments. So even David Davis thinks they are wrong.

MaliA · **Posted:** Wed Nov 01, 2017 14:18

Doctor Glyndwr wrote:

If the brexiteers surveyed there are correct, there's no reason not to release the DExEU impact assessments. So even David Davis thinks they are wrong.

I don't think there are any. I have little confidence they were done.

If they do exist, a leak will be on the way, surely?

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

MaliA wrote:

I don't think there are any. I have little confidence they were done.

If they do exist, a leak will be on the way, surely?

They definitely exist, it's been all over the news. The DExEU has said as much in response to FOI requests from MPs.

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

See e.g. http://uk.businessinsider.com/governmen ... ts-2017-10

Quote:

"In this case, releasing the commissioning document for this exercise, which is still a live policy issue, may undermine the effective formulation or development of policies which are key to our negotiating strategy.

"Disclosure would similarly set a precedent that would inhibit free and frank discussion in the future. Without the necessary safe space for unreserved instruction in commissioning briefs, the quality of the eventual advice from the respective exercise would be diminished and would in turn lead to poorer decision making."

Sounds to me a lot like "we're batting on a really sticky wicket and letting the EU know just how sticky we think it'll be is going to make it sticker." Except you're telling the EU that by the simple act of refusing to publish, suggesting the contents of the assessments must be worse than anyone would think.

markg · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 16560

I'm not sure what difference it would even make to leave voters. It's not like the Sun and The Mail are suddenly going to start running headlines about how it's all going to be a disaster. Leave voters haven't changed their minds because why would they have done.

MaliA · **Posted:** Wed Nov 01, 2017 14:53

Doctor Glyndwr wrote:

MaliA wrote:

I don't think there are any. I have little confidence they were done.

If they do exist, a leak will be on the way, surely?

They definitely exist, it's been all over the news. The DExEU has said as much in response to FOI requests from MPs.

Oh, ok. There goes some amusement for me. Unkess it"s a flickbook in a binder or something.

Grim... · **Posted:** Wed Nov 01, 2017 15:09

Doctor Glyndwr wrote:

How is it possible people are still so badly informed.

Kern · **Posted:** Wed Nov 01, 2017 17:40

markg wrote:

I'm not sure what difference it would even make to leave voters. It's not like the Sun and The Mail are suddenly going to start running headlines about how it's all going to be a disaster. Leave voters haven't changed their minds because why would they have done.

I just want to find the reports on industries in my constituency and respectfully ask my MP for comment.

Kern · **Posted:** Wed Nov 01, 2017 17:42

MaliA wrote:

Doctor Glyndwr wrote:

MaliA wrote:

I don't think there are any. I have little confidence they were done.

If they do exist, a leak will be on the way, surely?

They definitely exist, it's been all over the news. The DExEU has said as much in response to FOI requests from MPs.

Oh, ok. There goes some amusement for me. Unkess it"s a flickbook in a binder or something.

Those secret reports in full:

Cavey · **Posted:** Wed Nov 01, 2017 19:01

Kern wrote:

MaliA wrote:

Doctor Glyndwr wrote:

MaliA wrote:

I don't think there are any. I have little confidence they were done.

If they do exist, a leak will be on the way, surely?

They definitely exist, it's been all over the news. The DExEU has said as much in response to FOI requests from MPs.

Oh, ok. There goes some amusement for me. Unkess it"s a flickbook in a binder or something.

Those secret reports in full:

"DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOooooooooooooooom!"

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

"shock warning"

Oh my stars

Grim... · **Posted:** Thu Nov 02, 2017 20:02

This is progress! It should be encouraged.

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

I know I know

but still

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

Also "EU snatch" Jesus Christ people

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49232

"Not Any Kind Of Shock At All Warning" makes for tricky headlines

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

"No Kind Of Shock At All, Except Maybe To Our Readers Because We've Never Mentioned It, How Mysterious"

Findus Fop · **Joined:** 14th May, 2009 **Posts:** 4300

This line from Ian dunts article caught my eye:

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/11/02/chaos-in-government-could-brexit-fall-apart

Quote:

The obvious shadow looming over the investigation is that of Vladimir Putin. There is nothing like a smoking gun yet, but it seems inconceivable that Russia interfered so heavily in the French and US elections but did not bother to do so in the Brexit referendum. Some in Washington believe it is already setting up shop in Scotland to foment demands for another independence referendum.

Warhead · Noob as of 6/8/10

Time to revive the sock puppets, then.

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

Heh. Via Twitter -- this isn't aging well.

Kern · **Posted:** Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:18

They got the Beachy Head part right.

Shame they can't draw the flag properly.

Bamba · **Joined:** 25th Jul, 2010 **Posts:** 11128

Findus Fop wrote:

This line from Ian dunts article caught my eye:

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/11/02/chaos-in-government-could-brexit-fall-apart

Quote:

The obvious shadow looming over the investigation is that of Vladimir Putin. There is nothing like a smoking gun yet, but it seems inconceivable that Russia interfered so heavily in the French and US elections but did not bother to do so in the Brexit referendum. Some in Washington believe it is already setting up shop in Scotland to foment demands for another independence referendum.

What would Russia gain from an independent Scotland? That's not a rhetorical question, I'm honestly curious.

myp · **Posted:** Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:55

Bamba wrote:

Findus Fop wrote:

This line from Ian dunts article caught my eye:

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/11/02/chaos-in-government-could-brexit-fall-apart

Quote:

The obvious shadow looming over the investigation is that of Vladimir Putin. There is nothing like a smoking gun yet, but it seems inconceivable that Russia interfered so heavily in the French and US elections but did not bother to do so in the Brexit referendum. Some in Washington believe it is already setting up shop in Scotland to foment demands for another independence referendum.

What would Russia gain from an independent Scotland? That's not a rhetorical question, I'm honestly curious.

It makes rUK weaker I guess.

DavPaz · **Joined:** 27th Jun, 2008 **Posts:** 38464

Bamba wrote:

What would Russia gain from an independent Scotland? That's not a rhetorical question, I'm honestly curious.

Short term? EU in turmoil (even more than it currently is)

Long Term? A potential ally?

Satsuma · **Joined:** 20th Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 14359

Trade deals that they wouldn’t be able to do if they were part of the UK given the UK/EU spotty relationship with Russia maybe?

It’s all about money, right? Surely that’s the only reason they’d want to interfere in any politician wrangling.

Kern · **Posted:** Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:56

Bamba wrote:

What would Russia gain from an independent Scotland? That's not a rhetorical question, I'm honestly curious.

More disruption. If countries are running around trying to sort themselves out, if existing alliances and supranational organisations are made weaker, there's more opportunity for Russia to display its own power and influence because it won't face as much resistance as it would otherwise have had.

myp · **Posted:** Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:56

Making any ally of the US weaker has to be a strong goal.

Cavey · **Posted:** Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:57

Quote:

The UK’s manufacturing industry moved up a spot in the global league table to become the eighth largest in the world, according to the latest available data.

British manufacturing is now worth $249bn (£185bn) every year, according to United Nations data collected by the EEF, a manufacturers’ lobby group.

The UK leapfrogged France in the ranking, with only Germany and Italy manufacturing more in 2015 among European countries.

http://www.cityam.com/272260/british-ma ... gest-world

Quote:

British manufacturers reported stronger growth in October, driven by higher domestic demand and export orders.

The IHS Markit/CIPS purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 56.3 last month, from 56 in September. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

It was the fifteenth consecutive month of expansion for the sector, and will fuel debate over whether the economy is ready for an interest rate rise.
The news sent the pound to its highest against the dollar since early October.

Sterling rose 0.2% to $1.331. The pound also rose 0.3% versus the euro to €1.143, marking its highest level against the eurozone currency since early June.

"UK manufacturing made an impressive start to the final quarter of 2017 as increased inflows of new work encouraged firms to ramp up production," said Rob Dobson, a senior economist at IHS Markit.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41831945

FTSE100 and FTSE250 both at record highs this morning, and both sharply up. Again. Highest employment levels ever and still rising. Lowest unemployment for 40 years and still falling. Historically low inflation and interest rates. Manufacturing on a high, with 15 consecutive growth periods, trending still further upwards.

Still, snarky comments about year-old Daily Mail cartoons, and deep concern that the spivs and bankers might (finally) mess off. (Here's hoping) Yup, that's what I call the Big Picture here.

DOOOOoooom.

myp · **Posted:** Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:02

I'll get my own cherry picker out today too then:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busi ... 28891.html

Quote:

UK economic growth dwarfed again by eurozone in third quarter

Cavey · **Posted:** Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:07

Already covered that Myp. The Eurozone "growth" is from a very low base and double-digit unemployment, and is in any case comparable.
Not sure it's a cherry picker you need mate, just a barrel to scrape

myp · **Posted:** Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:48

Are you going to ignore the chaos in the Tory party too? It feels like the end of the Major years

GazChap · **Posted:** Fri Nov 03, 2017 13:59

Cavey wrote:

FTSE100 and FTSE250 both at record highs this morning, and both sharply up. Again. Highest employment levels ever and still rising. Lowest unemployment for 40 years and still falling.

It really bothers me that you continue to bang this particular drum when there is overwhelming evidence that even despite all this, poverty is at record highs and the cuts that have been made (and are continuing to be made) are making matters for people worse still.

I mean, for fuck's sake, food banks have had to start handing out "cold boxes" of food that don't require cooking because people (even those with good jobs that just don't pay enough to live on) are having to choose between heating and eating.

myp · **Posted:** Fri Nov 03, 2017 14:04

Also, how is big corporations doing well related in any way to the wellbeing of the average man on the street?

GazChap · **Posted:** Fri Nov 03, 2017 14:05

Yeah, that too.

Be Excellent To Each Other

Taking the Brexit

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