Taking the Brexit

LewieP · **Joined:** 29th Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 7600

OK I'll just forward that request to our incompetent government.

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49232

Unemployment was higher under both the mid-80s government under Labour and the mid-90s government under the Tories than it was in 2008-10 and the aftermath.

Cavey · **Posted:** Mon Oct 23, 2017 18:09

Cras wrote:

Unemployment was higher under both the mid-80s government under Labour and the mid-90s government under the Tories than it was in 2008-10 and the aftermath.

... Seriously?

Take a look at this.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/unem ... ps-below-7

The number of people working in the UK fell by almost 1,000,000 people between 2008 and 2009. If you reckon that's no big deal then there's not much I can say, but pretty hard luck on a great many hardworking people trying to support their families, keep their houses and roof over heads.

Interesting also to note that the total number of people working in the UK has rocketed from c.28,700,000 in 2009 and 2010, to 32,100,000 now - an increase of three and a half million people. Still, it's all ratshit after 7 years, it's all zero hours etc etc

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlab ... ket/latest

(Also please note Labour were not in power at any time in the 80s, nor indeed for most of the 90s)

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49232

When on earth did I say it wasn't a big deal? I merely said that unemployment was higher in the eighties and nineties (apologies, you're correct, both times under Tory governments) than during or after the 2008-10 recession. So the crash was not the worst since the great depression in the 30s, it was the worst since most of the time the Tories were in power in the 80s and 90s.

Cavey · **Posted:** Mon Oct 23, 2017 18:33

Cras wrote:

So the crash was not the worst since the great depression in the 30s, it was the worst since most of the time the Tories were in power in the 80s and 90s.

Nope, wrong again.

Quote:

The recession lasted for five quarters and was the deepest UK recession since the war.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_r ... ed_Kingdom

"Deepest UK recession since World War 2" doesn't sound too clever to me, but perhaps they're not including zero hours contracts.
The outcome of Brexit is unknown, but it would have to be really, really bad to equal Labour's 2008-2010 record, after having been in government for 11 years. Man, I miss Tony Blair.

GazChap · **Posted:** Mon Oct 23, 2017 18:43

Cavey wrote:

"Deepest UK recession since World War 2" doesn't sound too clever to me, but perhaps they're not including zero hours contracts.

Aren't you agreeing with Cras, there? Cras was saying that the 2008 recession wasn't as bad as the Great Depression, and you've just agreed with him I think.

myp · **Posted:** Mon Oct 23, 2017 18:47

Cavey wrote:

Cras wrote:

So the crash was not the worst since the great depression in the 30s, it was the worst since most of the time the Tories were in power in the 80s and 90s.

Nope, wrong again.

Quote:

The recession lasted for five quarters and was the deepest UK recession since the war.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_r ... ed_Kingdom

"Deepest UK recession since World War 2" doesn't sound too clever to me, but perhaps they're not including zero hours contracts.
The outcome of Brexit is unknown, but it would have to be really, really bad to equal Labour's 2008-2010 record, after having been in government for 11 years. Man, I miss Tony Blair.

He said unemployment was higher during the Tory-led recessions, not anything about economic growth itself.

Cavey · **Posted:** Mon Oct 23, 2017 18:50

GazChap wrote:

Cavey wrote:

"Deepest UK recession since World War 2" doesn't sound too clever to me, but perhaps they're not including zero hours contracts.

Aren't you agreeing with Cras, there? Cras was saying that the 2008 recession wasn't as bad as the Great Depression, and you've just agreed with him I think.

I'm not entirely sure what he's saying tbh, something along the lines of it not being as bad as the early 80s recession (as a direct consequence of the 79 Labour government) or the early 90s recession (Lawson Boom, which was down to the Tories). "Only" a million or so people lost their jobs, but of course the damage to the UK economy was immense, and still very much reverberating now. Yes, 3-4 million more people are in work, which is awesome, but there's still a long way to go before the UK economy could be said to be functioning within normal parameters.

Bottom line: it was horrendously bad, and Brexit is going to have to be one hell of a shitshow to get anywhere near it.

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

Measurements of the absolute number of people employed is skewed by a growing population.

As a ratio, the "record" employment figures under the current Conservative government look very unremarkable compared to that under Labour in 2000-2008.

Cavey · **Posted:** Mon Oct 23, 2017 19:43

Doctor Glyndwr wrote:

Measurements of the absolute number of people employed is skewed by a growing population.

As a ratio, the "record" employment figures under the current Conservative government look very unremarkable compared to that under Labour in 2000-2008.

Yeah, except your bottom graph is only up to January 2016, i.e. is nearly 2 years out of date. :roll:

Here, let me help you:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlab ... employment

(Still, I suppose it's better than your top graph, that's nearly a decade out of date)

Kern · **Posted:** Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:58

The quest to hunt down the saboteurs has reached the universities:

Guardian: Universities deplore ‘McCarthyism’ as MP demands list of tutors lecturing on Brexit

Quote:

Academics are accusing a Tory MP and government whip of “McCarthyite” behaviour, after he wrote to all universities asking them to declare what they are teaching their students about Brexit and to provide a list of teachers’ names

Remember citizens, stay vigilant. Remember Comrade Pavlik.

Pundabaya · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 5016

The Theresa is your friend. Obey Friend Theresa. Not obeying Friend Theresa is treason. Treason is punishable by death.
Do not question Friend Theresa. Friend Theresa is infallible. If you identify any situation where Friend Theresa is wrong, report to the re-education centre for mandatory re-orientation. Failure to report to the re-education centre is treason. Treason is punishable by death.

*Digs out a red jumpsuit*

Cavey · **Posted:** Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:16

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

https://www.ft.com/content/bde37fc1-5f7 ... 5790c960ce

Quote:

Sinister’: UK academics balk at request for lists of Brexit professors

Academics have reacted angrily to a “sinister” attempt by a pro-Brexit Conservative MP to find out the names of professors teaching courses on Brexit and to gain access to their online syllabuses.

Chris Heaton-Harris, a government whip and former MEP, wrote to university leaders earlier this month in an attempt to find out more about the nature of European affairs courses being taught in Britain.

“I was wondering if you would be so kind as to supply me with the names of professors in your establishment who are involved in the teaching of European affairs with particular reference to Brexit,” he wrote to David Green, vice-chancellor of Worcester University.

The letter, obtained by The Guardian, added: “”Further if I could be provided with a copy of the syllabus and links to the online lectures which relate to this area, I would be much obliged.”

Prof Green said he felt a chill down his spine when he read the “sinister” request and that he would not be providing Mr Heaton-Harris with the information.

“This letter just asking for information appears so innocent but is really so, so dangerous,” he said. “Here is the first step to the thought police, the political censor and newspeak, naturally justified as ‘the will of the British people’, a phrase to be found on Mr Heaton-Harris’s website.”

Brexit supporters have been critical of those in the “establishment” who they believe are obstructing or trying to undermine the result of the June 2016 EU referendum.

Foreign secretary Boris Johnson criticised the Financial Times and The Economist over their supposedly negative coverage of Brexit in his Tory conference speech this month, while the judiciary has also come in for criticism.

The Daily Mail hailed Theresa May’s decision to call a snap general election in April as a device for pushing through Brexit under the headline: “Crush the saboteurs.”

Mr Heaton-Harris was unavailable for comment.

Sally Hunt, general secretary of the University and College Union, warned that society would suffer “if politicians seek to police what universities can and cannot teach”.

“This attempt by Chris Heaton-Harris to compile a hit list of professors has the acrid whiff of McCarthyism about it and [universities minister] Jo Johnson must disown it in the strongest terms,” she said. “Our universities and colleges must lead the way in defending academic freedom, where received wisdom can be challenged and controversial ideas debated.”

This is definitely fine.

MaliA · **Posted:** Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:53

Shit. Twice in one day!

GazChap · **Posted:** Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:18

I don't read that as a "thought police" thing so much as a "we don't know what the hell we're doing, but maybe the college professors do - let's see what they're saying!"

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49232

You appear to have optimism, citizen. Please report to your nearest realignment centre for processing.

Cavey · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:03

In more WERE DOOOOOMED news, the UK economy grew by a pretty healthy +0.4% between July and September.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41747940

Of course, the BBC immediately spins this as being bad news because interest rates will probably rise off their 0.25% sub- sub- sub-basement level (which they absolutely need to do, if we're going to ever have anything like a fully recovered, normally functioning economy ever again), but the fact is, despite the UK/EU talks being deadlocked and mired, the economy continues to grow, UK markets are at sky high, best ever levels, as are employment levels to boot. I keep saying this, but from where I'm sitting, things STILL ain't three bad, as they say.

Good-o!

Kern · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:32

We haven't left the EU yet. Wait until businesses start planning for FY 2019/2020.

Cavey · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:46

Kern wrote:

We haven't left the EU yet. Wait until businesses start planning for FY 2019/2020.

Yes I know, so people keep saying. But as a businessman, I am finding it increasingly impossible to believe that the UK markets (and by implication, the economy) isn't already "costing in" worst case scenario 'Hard Brexit', and still growing strongly regardless? I'm just not feeling the doom right now, and the hour grows very late indeed.

Seems to be a case of not so much 'stormvind', more litt promp.

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49232

0.4% may be better than predicted (by 0.1%) but it's still worse than pretty much every other major world economy, so it seems odd to be describing it as healthy growth.

Zardoz · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:54

Strong and stable growth.

MaliA · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:54

Red white and blue Brexit

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49232

Also, worst case scenario hard brexit means planes literally cannot land in the UK (amongst a myriad of other disasters) and I find it incredibly hard to believe that that doomsday scenario has been costed in at this point.

MaliA · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:56

No deal is better than a bad deal

Kern · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:03

Cras wrote:

Also, worst case scenario hard brexit means planes literally cannot land in the UK (amongst a myriad of other disasters) and I find it incredibly hard to believe that that doomsday scenario has been costed in at this point.

I wonder why they still won't publish their sectorial impact assessments? Too many spoilers?

myp · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:05

MaliA wrote:

No deal is better than a bad deal

I'm pretty sure that was Noel Edmonds' catchphrase.

devilman · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:07

Kern wrote:

Cras wrote:

Also, worst case scenario hard brexit means planes literally cannot land in the UK (amongst a myriad of other disasters) and I find it incredibly hard to believe that that doomsday scenario has been costed in at this point.

I wonder why they still won't publish their sectorial impact assessments? Too many spoilers?

From this tweet

Attachment:

DM0kf7MW4AAPFd4.jpg

Trousers · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 3073

Cavey wrote:

Of course, the BBC immediately spins this as being bad news because interest rates will probably rise off their 0.25%

How is pointing out the impact of something spin? Joe Public doesn't really give two fucks about economic growth - they do care if their debt repayments go up.

Do you just want articles on how lovely cake is and nobody needs to worry about getting fat and dying?

Jem · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:10

I'd like articles on how lovely cake is.

Kern · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:13

Trousers wrote:

Do you just want articles on how lovely cake is and nobody needs to worry about getting fat and dying?

It's on Channel 4 these days.

Kern · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:14

Jem wrote:

I'd like articles on how lovely cake is.

June 2016: Vote leave for more cake
Now: Nobody expected cake. It was just a suggestion.

Cavey · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:21

Cras wrote:

0.4% may be better than predicted (by 0.1%) but it's still worse than pretty much every other major world economy, so it seems odd to be describing it as healthy growth.

Not for the first time though Cras, your sweeping assertions just don't stack up to even cursory checks.
The French economy grew by 0.5% last reported quarter (wow, that's a whopping 0.1% more than ours, and I think you'll find their unemployment levels are 10%, i.e. double fucking figures, as compared to our 4%), plus they had an actual contraction in economic growth in July 2016 and only 0.2% growth in October 2016. Much of 2015 was at, or close to zero growth, and 2013 was outright recession, so not exactly a great starting point, either! Here, see for yourself:

https://tradingeconomics.com/france/gdp-growth

Italian economic growth has been bumping on the floor for the whole of 2014, 2015, 2016 and to present, and outright deep recession for the whole of 2012 and 2013. Their unemployment rate sits at 11.3% FFS.

https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/gdp-growth

Even bloody *Germany* has had very similar economic growth to the UK in the last few years, and unlike us, their latest quarter shows a fall, to a very comparable 0.6%

https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth

So yeah, I'm looking at actual metrics, not memes.

Cavey · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:22

Cras wrote:

Also, worst case scenario hard brexit means planes literally cannot land in the UK (amongst a myriad of other disasters) and I find it incredibly hard to believe that that doomsday scenario has been costed in at this point.

I'm absolutely gutted no-one will be able to land their plane in the UK from 2019 onwards.

MaliA · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:24

Cavey wrote:

Cras wrote:

Also, worst case scenario hard brexit means planes literally cannot land in the UK (amongst a myriad of other disasters) and I find it incredibly hard to believe that that doomsday scenario has been costed in at this point.

I'm absolutely gutted no-one will be able to land their plane in the UK from 2019 onwards.

Or take off as we're replacing runways with conveyor belts.

Cavey · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:25

MaliA wrote:

Cavey wrote:

Cras wrote:

Also, worst case scenario hard brexit means planes literally cannot land in the UK (amongst a myriad of other disasters) and I find it incredibly hard to believe that that doomsday scenario has been costed in at this point.

I'm absolutely gutted no-one will be able to land their plane in the UK from 2019 onwards.

Or take off as we're replacing runways with conveyor belts.

VOTE CORBYN IF YOU LIKE PLANES

devilman · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:27

MaliA wrote:

Cavey wrote:

Cras wrote:

Also, worst case scenario hard brexit means planes literally cannot land in the UK (amongst a myriad of other disasters) and I find it incredibly hard to believe that that doomsday scenario has been costed in at this point.

I'm absolutely gutted no-one will be able to land their plane in the UK from 2019 onwards.

Or take off as we're replacing runways with conveyor belts.

Heathrow will be become Heathrow Farm, full of May-endorsed wheat fields.

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49232

You specifically picked out last quarter's growth growth in GDP as being healthy. I pointed out that the performance of most other economies this year (which, if we're talking brexit impact, is the relevant timeframe) is better.

You can't call out GDP growth as an indicator of a healty economy then leap instead to another factor when the numbers show that our GDP growth isn't healthy, it's somewhere between lacklustre and weak.

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49232

Cavey wrote:

Cras wrote:

Also, worst case scenario hard brexit means planes literally cannot land in the UK (amongst a myriad of other disasters) and I find it incredibly hard to believe that that doomsday scenario has been costed in at this point.

I'm absolutely gutted no-one will be able to land their plane in the UK from 2019 onwards.

Be as sarcastic as you like, but that's what worst case hard brexit is.

Cavey · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:31

Jem wrote:

I'd like articles on how lovely cake is.

Hehe, I agree! Beats endless grievance chimp-mongering any day of the week, let's have a bit of positivity.

GazChap · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:34

Cavey wrote:

Jem wrote:

I'd like articles on how lovely cake is.

Hehe, I agree! Beats endless grievance chimp-mongering any day of the week, let's have a bit of positivity.

Here's one

Cavey · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:35

Cras wrote:

Cavey wrote:

Cras wrote:

Also, worst case scenario hard brexit means planes literally cannot land in the UK (amongst a myriad of other disasters) and I find it incredibly hard to believe that that doomsday scenario has been costed in at this point.

I'm absolutely gutted no-one will be able to land their plane in the UK from 2019 onwards.

Be as sarcastic as you like, but that's what worst case hard brexit is.

Well FFS, it' hard not to be sarcastic in the face of such absurd idiocy. I'm sorry, but there really is no other way to say it. Get a grip, please.

In terms of your last post, I gave you specific examples of peer economies whose last-quarter growth rates were entirely compatible with our own (and with lower recent trajectories to boot in some cases, as against double-digit unemployment rates as well). If you're saying we're doing worse than China, as based on economic growth rates, well duh. I think you'll find everyone is.

Cavey · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:35

GazChap wrote:

Cavey wrote:

Jem wrote:

I'd like articles on how lovely cake is.

Hehe, I agree! Beats endless grievance chimp-mongering any day of the week, let's have a bit of positivity.

Here's one

Haha, very good mate I must admit.

Jem · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:38

Soz I don't click dailyfail links.

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49232

Most countries haven't released Q3 figures yet, but the Q1 and Q2 figures are terrible.

https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=350

I'm not comparing us to China, I'm comparing us to Greece, Belgium, Colombia, Slovenia!

You tell me you think our GDP growth for 2017 is healthy based on our ranking in that table, you're powerfully deluding yourself. And short of the rest of the world having suffered a massive recession we didn't notice, that 0.1% upgrade in Q3 isn't going to be an improvement on what's already there for Q1 and Q2.

Cavey · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 13:01

Cras wrote:

Most countries haven't released Q3 figures yet, but the Q1 and Q2 figures are terrible.

https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=350

I'm not comparing us to China, I'm comparing us to Greece, Belgium, Colombia, Slovenia!

You tell me you think our GDP growth for 2017 is healthy based on our ranking in that table, you're powerfully deluding yourself. And short of the rest of the world having suffered a massive recession we didn't notice, that 0.1% upgrade in Q3 isn't going to be an improvement on what's already there for Q1 and Q2.

Hang on, you're comparing us with the likes of Greece, whose economy melted down recently so there's an absurdly low base upon which they have some semblance of 'recovery', with a 22% unemployment rate? Wow.

As for your citing Columbia, I think you'll find they've had TWO negative quarters in the last year or so FFS, as 10 seconds on Google demonstrates https://tradingeconomics.com/colombia/gdp-growth
(Besides which, if you think there is anything whatoever comparable between theirs and the UK's mature economy, well, there really is no helping you)

Look, you say how "terrible" our cumulative Q1 and Q2 growth of 0.6% is, with upwards trajectory and as against incredible employment levels, resilient markets and lowest unemployment for 40 years, even as I've demonstrated to you that these are entirely compatible with our peer competitor nations, with far worse unemployment in all cases, by a fucking country mile (i.e. at least double) except Germany's, which is comparable to own own. I'm suggesting to you that, on the basis of current facts, this default, knee-jerk analysis of yours is pessimistic to the point of absurdity.

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49232

You say they're comparable, that table I linked to is that comparison! And we're right down near the bottom!

Cavey · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 13:35

Oh man. I give up, sorry.

Trousers · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 3073

I do like Ian Dunt.

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/10 ... of-no-deal

Quote:

The truth is that Davis' talk of no-deal is a bluff. No-one in their right mind would ever countenance it. The trouble with this bluff is that everyone can see it: the MPs on the committee, the public watching on TV, and the negotiators in Brussels. No matter how elegantly he describes the angle of the barrel, everyone can see he is holding the gun to his own head

Cavey · **Posted:** Wed Oct 25, 2017 13:46

Trousers wrote:

I do like Ian Dunt.

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/10 ... of-no-deal

Quote:

The truth is that Davis' talk of no-deal is a bluff. No-one in their right mind would ever countenance it. The trouble with this bluff is that everyone can see it: the MPs on the committee, the public watching on TV, and the negotiators in Brussels. No matter how elegantly he describes the angle of the barrel, everyone can see he is holding the gun to his own head

Well, yes, I should think Mr Dunt is concerned about the status of his return flight from his 2019 jollies. Who can blame him?
That surname is a little phonetically unfortunate, though, right enough.

Be Excellent To Each Other

Taking the Brexit

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