Taking the Brexit

markg · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 16570

Maybe they want to shit everyone up so badly that the government has to just make some emergency statement and put a stop to this madness. But they're probably just being realistic.

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

MrChris wrote:

Given that markets react to things like that, was that not a teensy bit silly?

It's a financial advice newsletter he sends out. If this is how he sees things, what's the alterative: knowingly give bad advice?

Anyway, who cares, he's just another expert. #scaremongering #projectfear

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49232

Also, you know. The markets are aware. Trust me on this.

Hearthly · **Joined:** 11th May, 2008 **Posts:** 13385

A mate of mine works in a senior auditing position for a major international bank down in that there London. (As he works in the more sober aspects of banking his salary is measured in six rather than seven figures, but make no mistake he's super-bright and super-switched on.)

I sent him an email asking for his opinion on BREXIT and his reply was along the lines of what DocG has posted above - really serious shit is on the way that we can't now stop happening, it'll just take a few weeks/months to start to kick in, but it's going to be horrible.

Last couple of lines from his email, he likens the mood in his office to their reaction to 9/11.

At least he's still coming over for his annual visit though.

Attachment:

Screenshot 2016-06-27 at 15.01.02.png

Cavey · **Posted:** Mon Jun 27, 2016 15:06

Cras wrote:

Also, you know. The markets are aware. Trust me on this.

But in that case, why is the FTSE100 still above 6,000, more or less where it's been the last 3-4 months?
I hate Brexit as much as the next man, but 'blind panic'...? That's not reflected by UK markets at least

MrChris · **Joined:** 1st Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 30498

Doctor Glyndwr wrote:

MrChris wrote:

Given that markets react to things like that, was that not a teensy bit silly?

It's a financial advice newsletter he sends out. If this is how he sees things, what's the alterative: knowingly give bad advice?

Anyway, who cares, he's just another expert. #scaremongering #projectfear

Hang on, I assume that's not an implication viz myself there, is it? Given that I voted remain and quite like experts.

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

Cavey wrote:

Cras wrote:

Also, you know. The markets are aware. Trust me on this.

But in that case, why is the FTSE100 still above 6,000, more or less where it's been the last 3-4 months?
I hate Brexit as much as the next man, but 'blind panic'...? That's not reflected by UK markets at least

The FTSE 100 is mostly made up of multinationals with less exposure to the UK. For some of them, the weak Sterling is an advantage (ie. exporters), which counterbalances against the general panic in the market. But take a look at the FTSE 250, which is mid-cap firms, many of whom have predominantly UK-based businesses. It's way, way down.

Source: @fastFT: "Sterling weakness shields FTSE 100, but UK-centric FTSE 250 feels the Brexit burn. https://t.co/KHhOEthGl4 https://t.co/RNzj6PzNLU"

MrChris · **Joined:** 1st Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 30498

Mmmmmm. Experts. [/homer simpson]

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

MrChris wrote:

Doctor Glyndwr wrote:

Anyway, who cares, he's just another expert. #scaremongering #projectfear

Hang on, I assume that's not an implication viz myself there, is it? Given that I voted remain and quite like experts.

No, I'm just taking the piss out of the Leave campaign.

MrChris · **Joined:** 1st Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 30498

OK, as you were then.

What's the percentage drop on the 250? can't make it out from the size of the image.

markg · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 16570

I'm honestly starting to feel that the government are really going to have to just u-turn on this and take whatever riots and civil unrest come their way. At this point it starting to feel like the better option. It's like crashing a plane into the ground because over half the passengers voted for it.

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

MrChris wrote:

OK, as you were then.

What's the percentage drop on the 250? can't make it out from the size of the image.

6.7%, to a year-long low. You can just Google "ftse250" for an interactive graph, y'know.

MaliA · **Posted:** Mon Jun 27, 2016 15:20

Doctor Glyndwr wrote:

MrChris wrote:

OK, as you were then.

What's the percentage drop on the 250? can't make it out from the size of the image.

6.7%, to a year-long low. You can just Google "ftse250" for an interactive graph, y'know.

Finally a use for 'Stocks' on the iPhone

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

YOU USING STOCKS DOESN'T PAY MY BILLS MALI

LewieP · **Joined:** 29th Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 7600

Here's the case for Thatcherism and New Labour's failure to repair the damage it caused having led to the Leave result
http://www.perc.org.uk/project_posts/th ... of-brexit/

LewieP · **Joined:** 29th Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 7600

Here's the case for Thatcherism and New Labour's failure to repair the damage it caused having led to the Leave result
http://www.perc.org.uk/project_posts/th ... of-brexit/

Grim... · **Posted:** Mon Jun 27, 2016 15:31

FACTOID: The guy telling the joke directed Iron Man 3 (and wrote The Predator).

asfish · **Joined:** 5th Dec, 2010 **Posts:** 3353

The way forward via Facebook posting

Quote:

Right. Fuck this. We're ALL up shit creek and we need a paddle. Now, not in three months.

Fellow Remain voters: Enough already. Yes, we're all pissed off but navel gazing ain't gonna help. Not all 17 million Leave voters can possibly be racist northern pensioners without an O level to their name. Maybe they have a point about this quitting the EU thing? Maybe not. Whatever, we are where we are and no amount a whinging is gonna change that. Allegedly we're the intelligent ones, so get your thinking caps on.

Leave voters. Well done. Good game. We hear you. Now you need to get stuck in to the aftermath and not just piss off back to Wetherspoons. (Just banter, twats!). And the first person to say they "want their country back" gets deported to fucking Gibraltar. OK?

Politicians.

David. Fuck off. Shut the door behind you. Now.

George. You may be a twat but you're our twat. Plus you know the passwords for our Junior Savers account. Get your calculator. Drop the face-like-a-slapped-ass routine. You're on.

Boris. Sorry mate. That photo of you abseiling by your scrotum over the London Olympics while waving a Union Jack can't ever be un-taken. Plus, you'll never be able to appear on Question Time again without some sturdy Glaswegian nurse asking where the fuck her 350 million quid is. Not only will she have a very good point, she'll be wearing a T shirt that shows you gurning in front of that fucking bus! No captains hat for you I'm afraid.

Theresa. You're in charge love. Get the biggest shoulder pads you've got. We need Ming The Merciless in drag and you'll scare the shit out of 'em.

Nicola. Yep. Fair cop. You probably could get us on a technicality, as could London. But we fucking love shortbread. And oil. And to be honest you're probably the best politician we've got, so we need you on side. Sort your lot out and we promise never to mention that Jimmy Krankie thing again (although it is pretty uncanny) and we'll make you a Dame once we're sorted. Bring Ruth Davidson. She kicks ass.

Opposition party. We'll need one. Someone take Jeremy and John back to the British Legion Club where you found them. Take Nigel as well. Give back their sandals, buy them a pint, then go to Heathrow and collect David Milliband. Fuck it. Lets gets Ed Balls as well. He keeps George on his toes. I think he works on the lottery kiosk at Morrisons now?

Oh. And Mark Carney. Give him a knighthood and tell him to keep that shit coming. We definitely need more of that good shit!

Everyone set? Right. Hold the Easyjet. We're going to Brussels and this ain't no hen party.

‪#‎weneedaplan‬ Share!

Grim... · **Posted:** Mon Jun 27, 2016 15:46

PMs questions, right now:

"[Cameron] offers assurances to EU nationals living here that there will be no immediate changes to their circumstances."

Jesus, that sounds fucking sinister.

markg · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 16570

He can't actually promise anything else though, he's not going to be in charge.

Grim... · **Posted:** Mon Jun 27, 2016 15:49

It's the word "immediate" that worries me. As in "There will be changes in the future".

TheVision · **Posted:** Mon Jun 27, 2016 15:57

Grim... wrote:

It's the word "immediate" that worries me. As in "There will be changes in the future".

It's like that time when I was told that there was no immediate plans to make me redundant. Two weeks later, I was made redundant.

myp · **Posted:** Mon Jun 27, 2016 16:01

Grim... wrote:

It's the word "immediate" that worries me. As in "There will be changes in the future".

Absolutely there will.

TheVision · **Posted:** Mon Jun 27, 2016 16:02

Lonewolves wrote:

Grim... wrote:

It's the word "immediate" that worries me. As in "There will be changes in the future".

Absolutely there will.

Yeah, it's like that time when I was told that there was no immediate plans to make me redundant. Two weeks later, I was made redundant.

flis · **Joined:** 26th May, 2008 **Posts:** 3333

Grim... wrote:

It's the word "immediate" that worries me. As in "There will be changes in the future".

There will won't there? Unless they have been granted permanent residence?

Mr Russell · **Joined:** 6th Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 12269

flis wrote:

Grim... wrote:

It's the word "immediate" that worries me. As in "There will be changes in the future".

There will won't there? Unless they have been granted permanent residence?

Yes, it's like that time when TheVision was told that there was no immediate plans to make him redundant. Two weeks later, he was made redundant.

TheVision · **Posted:** Mon Jun 27, 2016 16:06

Mr Russell wrote:

flis wrote:

Grim... wrote:

It's the word "immediate" that worries me. As in "There will be changes in the future".

There will won't there? Unless they have been granted permanent residence?

Yes, it's like that time when TheVision was told that there was no immediate plans to make him redundant. Two weeks later, he was made redundant.

Yeah, it's like that time.... Oh.... Good work Russell. You're getting it.

Just to add a bit of character to the story, I was actually on my honeymoon in those two weeks.

flis · **Joined:** 26th May, 2008 **Posts:** 3333

Shut up

I was questioning the facts surrounding any possible changes, as opposed to any timing/ominous reassurance.

I don't get how it works over there - we have a work permit system in place here. Until you're granted permanent residence, you can be fucked out of the country at any moment*.

*Not any moment. But if you're here on a work permit basis, it is reviewed annually.

LewieP · **Joined:** 29th Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 7600

Grim... wrote:

FACTOID: The guy telling the joke directed Iron Man 3 (and wrote The Predator).

And wrote Lethal Weapon and directed (his best work) Kiss Kiss Bang Bang.

Mimi · **Joined:** 27th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 25637

Grim... wrote:

Mimi wrote:

Grim... wrote:

Jem wrote:

We, the older members of society, outnumber the young.

No they don't.

I guess it depends where you set the divide.

Above the mean age of the living population, right? That's 40 years old (40.00, oddly). The 2011 census results show that 50.6% of people are below 40.

There are more older voters, but not more older members of society.

WTF? So we will many of us be 'old' in about three years.

Bollocks.

myp · **Posted:** Mon Jun 27, 2016 16:38

Interestingly enough, even if no one changes their mind, the referendum result will be wrong by the time we exit the EU (what with 16-17 year olds becoming old enough to vote and old people dying).

Grim... · **Posted:** Mon Jun 27, 2016 16:38

Mimi wrote:

Grim... wrote:

Mimi wrote:

Grim... wrote:

Jem wrote:

We, the older members of society, outnumber the young.

No they don't.

I guess it depends where you set the divide.

Above the mean age of the living population, right? That's 40 years old (40.00, oddly). The 2011 census results show that 50.6% of people are below 40.

There are more older voters, but not more older members of society.

WTF? So we will many of us be 'old' in about three years.

Bollocks.

Sorry gran, but it's true.

Mr Russell · **Joined:** 6th Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 12269

Grim... wrote:

Mimi wrote:

Grim... wrote:

Mimi wrote:

Grim... wrote:

Jem wrote:

We, the older members of society, outnumber the young.

No they don't.

I guess it depends where you set the divide.

Above the mean age of the living population, right? That's 40 years old (40.00, oddly). The 2011 census results show that 50.6% of people are below 40.

There are more older voters, but not more older members of society.

WTF? So we will many of us be 'old' in about three years.

Bollocks.

Sorry gran, but it's true.

Super gran, please.

miki · **Joined:** 30th Apr, 2011 **Posts:** 1458 **Location:** NL

here in NL EU residents don't need a permit to live and work, that is the point of our personal worries
because then suddenly my husband is no longer an EU resident - so what will his status be then?

Grim... · **Posted:** Mon Jun 27, 2016 16:40

Presumably people will shout at him in the streets and demand he gets out of "their" country.

miki · **Joined:** 30th Apr, 2011 **Posts:** 1458 **Location:** NL

I guess

GazChap · **Posted:** Mon Jun 27, 2016 16:42

LewieP wrote:

Grim... wrote:

FACTOID: The guy telling the joke directed Iron Man 3 (and wrote The Predator).

And wrote Lethal Weapon and directed (his best work) Kiss Kiss Bang Bang.

And the recent "The Nice Guys", which is pretty good

myp · **Posted:** Mon Jun 27, 2016 16:42

miki wrote:

here in NL EU residents don't need a permit to live and work, that is the point of our personal worries
because then suddenly my husband is no longer an EU resident - so what will his status be then?

Filthy immigrant scum

myp · **Posted:** Mon Jun 27, 2016 16:43

Sorry I'm probably not helping

Mimi · **Joined:** 27th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 25637

Grim... wrote:

Mimi wrote:

Grim... wrote:

Mimi wrote:

Grim... wrote:

Jem wrote:

We, the older members of society, outnumber the young.

No they don't.

I guess it depends where you set the divide.

Above the mean age of the living population, right? That's 40 years old (40.00, oddly). The 2011 census results show that 50.6% of people are below 40.

There are more older voters, but not more older members of society.

.
WTF? So we will many of us be 'old' in about three years.

Bollocks.

Sorry gran, but it's true.

I think you're older than me, so schtum

miki · **Joined:** 30th Apr, 2011 **Posts:** 1458 **Location:** NL

no but you're making me laugh

Malc · **Posted:** Mon Jun 27, 2016 16:50

Lonewolves wrote:

Interestingly enough, even if no one changes their mind, the referendum result will be wrong by the time we exit the EU (what with 16-17 year olds becoming old enough to vote and old people dying).

My Son turns 18 years old in just over a week, he was/is really annoyed that he couldn't vote (especially as most of his class mates could and did vote).

It really would have been much closer if 16/17 year olds were allowed to vote (as per the Scottish Referendum). In Fact Scottish rules (anyone living there is allowed to vote) would have sealed it for remain.

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

Malc wrote:

It really would have been much closer if 16/17 year olds were allowed to vote

Possibly not, given that turnout in the youngest age groups was woefully low. (Which makes me rather less interested in the "the old people have ruined our lives" gnashing of teeth.)

Malc · **Posted:** Mon Jun 27, 2016 17:10

Doctor Glyndwr wrote:

Malc wrote:

It really would have been much closer if 16/17 year olds were allowed to vote

Possibly not, given that turnout in the youngest age groups was woefully low. (Which makes me rather less interested in the "the old people have ruined our lives" gnashing of teeth.)

Maybe it's just selective bias on my part, I guess it must be, it just seems that my son and his friends all seemed quite keen to have their say on this.

zaphod79 · **Joined:** 16th Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 14495

I have seen a post somewhere with the numbers on it - that if we triggered article 50 now , no one changed their vote , by the time the 2 year wait was up (assuming average mortality rate and that each 'block' would keep the same %age of the vote) then remain would be the majority.

Interesting bit on the BBC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-36639770

Brexit: Gibraltar in talks with Scotland to stay in EU

Quote:

Gibraltar is in talks with Scotland about a plan to keep parts of the UK in the EU, BBC Newsnight has learned.

Fabian Picardo, the territory's chief minister, told the BBC he was speaking to Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, about various options.

One possibility under discussion is for Gibraltar and Scotland, which both voted to remain in the EU, to maintain the UK's membership of the bloc.

Northern Ireland could also potentially be included in the talks.

markg · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 16570

zaphod79 wrote:

I have seen a post somewhere with the numbers on it - that if we triggered article 50 now , no one changed their vote , by the time the 2 year wait was up (assuming average mortality rate and that each 'block' would keep the same %age of the vote) then remain would be the majority.

I don't get that. I thought we had an ageing population.

LewieP · **Joined:** 29th Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 7600

It's based on the questionable assumption that the process of people becoming more likely to vote Leave as they age wouldn't impact the vote.

People's politics are changed by what stage they are in their life. There are people who voted Remain this time that might vote Leave in two years time.

Mr Dave · **Posted:** Mon Jun 27, 2016 17:57

The number of new old people isn't increasing. The number of new young people is. + immigrants who have citizenship.

LewieP · **Joined:** 29th Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 7600

Mr Dave wrote:

The number of new old people isn't increasing. The number of new young people is. + immigrants who have citizenship.

Pretty sure people still have birthdays.

Mr Dave · **Posted:** Mon Jun 27, 2016 18:00

LewieP wrote:

It's based on the questionable assumption that the process of people becoming more likely to vote Leave as they age wouldn't impact the vote.

People's politics are changed by what stage they are in their life. There are people who voted Remain this time that might vote Leave in two years time.

The number of people who were alive when we joined the EU isn't increasing. Also, people who didn't grow up with migration & talking to forrins on internet is also not increasing.

Be Excellent To Each Other

Taking the Brexit

Who is online