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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2015
PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2015 12:49 
SupaMod
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Well, quite.

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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2015
PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2015 12:49 
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Hello Hello Hello

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Posts: 13382
ElephantBanjoGnome wrote:
Although not much to be said as the news has garnered only a couple of comments in either thread.


That's your fault for splitting the vote, like the LibDems.

@Grim... Sorry old chap wasn't trying to push any buttons, to me it just seems that the Celebrity Deathlist thread (and for 'Celebrity' read 'Notable') seemed a far better fit.

If Peter Molyneux died I wouldn't expect it to be pinned to the end of the GTAV thread.


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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2015
PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2015 14:10 
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Grim... wrote:
What's the fucking point? He's fucking immune to any kind of criticism and 1,000 other people will jump in trying to hold his hand while mine are firmly in my fucking pocket.


Is this aimed at me at all?


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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2015
PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2015 14:17 
SupaMod
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No.

Forget it exists.

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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2015
PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2015 14:26 
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Excellent Member

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Grim... wrote:
No.

Forget it exists.


Roger that. Hope your day gets better dude. :)


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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2015
PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2015 15:03 
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Good FT piece by David Allen Green on the Human Rights Act repeal (or, rather, the lack of it): http://blogs.ft.com/david-allen-green/2 ... ights-act/

Spoiler for length:

ZOMG Spoiler! Click here to view!
Quote:
The Queen’s Speech last week had one notable omission: the firm commitment of a new Bill within months to repeal the Human Rights Act 1998 for it to be replaced with a “British Bill of Rights”. Instead, there would be mere “proposals” and no Bill, and (yet another) “consultation” instead of enactment.

On the face of it, this omission was odd. The Conservatives have an overall majority in the House of Commons for the first time in nearly 20 years, and both the repeal and replacement were featured in the party manifesto. It would also be something that would “play well” with elements of the popular press and with many voters. The iron was hot, and it was ready for striking.

But it did not happen, and now it may never happen. Given that Commons’ majorities tend to decrease over time (and the Conservative majority is not that big to begin with), and given that constitutional reform will always tend to slip down the political agenda after any general election, the lack of firm proposals to replace the Act are politically significant. The Tories have lost their best chance this parliament at getting rid of the Act and putting in place something more to their liking, and the next general election will probably not be until 2020.

What explains this lack of legislation? The Conservative policy of repeal and replacement has been around since at least 2006 and as recently as last October the party published proposals for how it would go about implementing it. During the general election, and in the days after, reporters were briefed that the policy was a priority: indeed, it appeared that something would be done within “100 days”.

One way of explaining the failure is in terms of “high politics”: the interactions of opportunistic politicians seeking political advantages as events unfold. Here the focus is the slender Commons majority: once it was clear that some backbench politicians opposed repeal, at least on a rushed basis, and that opposition politicians would be firm, then brisk legislative progress would be impossible. It became a matter of simple arithmetic: if the Commons votes were not there it was better to drop or delay the proposal than to risk a needless defeat so early in the new parliament.

The Telegraph has provided a detailed and fascinating “high politics” analysis of the decision not to press ahead with repeal. Such analyses are important and should not be dismissed, and sometimes significant constitutional change (or lack of change) comes about just because of political manoeuverings. To take one notable instance, the passing of the Reform Act 1867 which enfranchised working men in towns and cities can be best understood by looking at Benjamin Disraeli’s improvised handling of the greasy pole of prime ministerial office so he could “dish the Whigs” and gain party advantage for a Tory party long excluded from majority rule.

However, “high politics” by itself does not explain the Conservatives’ failure to push through repeal of the Act and replace it with a British Bill of Rights — for even if the government had secured a majority of the Commons, there were other high hurdles to surpass (see here and here). These hurdles can be, in essence, divided between structural “constitutional” problems and those of legal substance.

The constitutional problems are immense. The Good Friday Agreement requires that in Northern Ireland anyone can go to a court and enforce their rights under the European Convention on Human Rights. One role of the Act is to give effect to this provision, and it is a provision dear to the nationalist community and their elected representatives. As neither amending nor breaching the Good Friday Agreement is sensible politics, then simple repeal of the Act across the United Kingdom is not possible.

There are similar problems in respect of the devolved administrations. In Scotland and in Wales, the administrations would insist that their respective assemblies had the right to withhold consent to the exercise. And while as a matter of constitutional theory the Westminster parliament could legislate anyway regardless of the protests of the devolved governments, such an abrupt and arrogant legislative act is not feasible in a post-devolution polity. The government is boxed-in.

But there is a deeper problem. The government does not have, as a matter of legal substance, any idea what to do. For nearly a decade, repealing the Human Rights Act (which can be blamed for Bad Things) and replacing it with a British Bill of Rights (which would only contain Good Things) has been a staple of Tory political rhetoric. Deriding the former and extolling the latter has long been enough for a Conservative politician to get an easy cheer. But converting this heady sentiment into hard law is not straightforward.

Indeed, one suspects that somewhere in Whitehall, there is somebody sitting in front of a piece of paper or computer screen, staring at the title “British Bill of Rights”. The rest of the paper or screen, is blank.

Why is there this disconnect between what is promised and what is to be done (or not done)? The reason is that there are, in fact, two Human Rights Acts.

The first is the real Act, a modest and short legal instrument, and one that is rarely relied upon by lawyers and courts in practice. Almost no case before the UK courts turns on it. The Act contains a (widely ignored) rule of statutory construction, that legislation be interpreted in accordance with the “convention rights” — the articles of the ECHR scheduled to the Act — and it includes a trite rule that public bodies cannot breach those “convention rights”. There is also a limp provision that UK courts must take account of (but not necessarily follow) the rulings of the Strasbourg court that supervises the ECHR.

And that is it. The real Act is a long-stop, so as to ensure domestic compliance with very basic international rights standards; and it provides the means by which domestic judges can deal with those few exceptional cases that affect fundamental rights and in respect of which the law is inadequate (for example, the “right to life” has meant that there should be a proper inquest into certain deaths). The real Act does not do a great deal, but it does enough, and so it is worth defending.

But the other, illusory, Act is a horrific monster, a terrible thing. Some right-wing politicians and tabloid journalists are quite sincere in their fear and loathing of human rights law. As AJP Taylor said of Bismarck’s reaction to the social democrats of his time, it is probable “Bismarck genuinely believed in the turnip-ghost which he conjured up“. Similarly, human rights lawyers are the bogeys of the Tory imagination, hiding beneath kitchen tables, waiting until dark so as to let in murderers and terrorists into the homes of hard-working people.

So the “debate” over human rights law currently features attempts to explain the nature of the real Act in the face of visceral loathing of the fictional Act, while those who seek repeal are destined to get nowhere because of legal and constitutional realities and the absence of any idea as to what the alternative would be.

This is all a pity, as, even taken at their highest, not one of the problems about the Human Rights Act actually requires its entire repeal as a solution; it is a shadow debate. For example, the Strasbourg court has found that the UK’s blanket ban on prisoner voting is in breach of the ECHR, but it carefully awarded no compensation. The law in the UK is unchanged, and the judgment can be shrugged off. It does not bind domestic courts. To say that there should be legislation to make the UK Supreme Court “supreme” on human rights law is to make a simple error: the UK Supreme Court is already supreme on human rights law.

So what will happen? The UK’s leading legal commentator, the wise (and invariably correct) Joshua Rozenberg, believes the government has now switched to a less urgent strategy, and that there will be eventual “tinkering” reforms disguised as some great reform. The human rights barrister and outstanding legal blogger Adam Wagner urges that the supporters of the Act not be complacent, and that attempts to repeal it have not gone away. And it is certainly the case that the prime minister remains fixated on the wrongs of human rights law.

On the other hand, there is every chance that the determination of the UK government to “do something” on human rights law will weaken as the parliament goes on. The new ministers at the Ministry of Justice are ambitious and clever, but their attention will quickly be engaged by the mundane but crucial problems of keeping the criminal and civil justice systems of England and Wales from collapse, and by the need to keep a failing prisons and probation service safe and somehow efficient and effective.

Soon there will not be enough time and resources in this age of austerity for justice ministers to go into glorious battle against turnip-ghosts. There is instead serious work to be done at the Ministry of Justice by serious politicians. If the new justice secretary Michael Gove and his team of ministers are sensible, it will be by managing that under-achieving ministry as well as it can be managed that they can make their lasting political mark.


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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2015
PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2015 1:43 

Joined: 15th Nov, 2008
Posts: 484
Damn,

General Election has claimed its first death.

RIP Charles Kennedy, history will judge you extremely favourably. You stuck to your principles no matter what.

Sadly there is no room for a nice guy in politics. May you find a chatroom in heaven Charlie! :(

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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2015
PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2015 8:16 
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Those crazy liberal hippies at, err, the IMF think Britain's austerity is bullshit:

Quote:
In countries such as the UK and Norway which controlled their own monetary policy, the advantages [to not reducing the national debt] were even bigger, the authors said.

For these countries, the IMF said the "optimal" policy involved "living with high debt pile[s]". While the Fund said this was far from ideal, it was preferable to introducing "policies to deliberately pay down the debt" because the costs were likely to outweigh the benefits.

"When a country runs a budget surplus to pay down its debt, there is no free lunch, the money has to come from somewhere," said Jonathan Ostry, co-author of the report. "Either through higher taxes, which undercuts the productivity of labour and capital, or lower spending which - unless that spending is completely wasteful - has a similar effect.

"Advocates of ‘fixing the debt problem’ stress that the crisis insurance benefit of lower debt without mentioning the upfront cost of the insurance. Our paper shows that insurance can be expensive.

"More importantly, for countries that have ample fiscal space, the cost of insurance is likely to be much larger than the benefit. It is much better in these circumstances to just live with the debt, allowing the debt ratio to be reduced organically through higher growth."


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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2015
PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2015 10:03 
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Well, we've been here so many time before, Doc, so I'll keep it brief(ish). :)

Clearly, this whole "ever increasing borrowing and debt" Socialist mantra is empirically discredited bollocks, and it doesn't matter who's saying it, sorry old chap. Try telling Greece, Portugal, Spain or Ireland that they can just keep on borrowing more and more, and this is all somehow "good" in economic terms.

The problem with "large debt piles" is that there are "large interest payments" to go with them - all 'dead money' that's a continuous, never ending drag on the economy, and money that could've otherwise been spent on social programmes, infrastructure or whatever. Also, the more indebted a government becomes, the less likely creditors will believe they'll get their money back, and thus those aforesaid crippling interest repayments just spiral ever higher still (as widely empirically demonstrated). I mean seriously, Doc, this isn't rocket science or advanced economics, it's just bloody common sense.

Successive Labour governments have believed, in one way or another, that they can borrow/spend their way out of the shit, and each of them has been proved catastrophically wrong. For years I was told "governmental borrowing isn't like 'normal' finances" and all the rest, but subsequent events, still very much reverberating to the current day, demonstrate otherwise. (Ed Miliband's 'we didn't overspend last time round' sent a collective shiver down the spines of ordinary working people up and down England at least, consigning him and his party to almost total irrelevance)

Clearly, there also needs to be some distinction between WHOM we are talking about here. Yes, the US with its Reserve Currency and great financial importance to other big players like China and Japan, as well as being #1 world economy, does mean that it can borrow heavily (for now, albeit that could change long term). Same is true to a much lesser extent for Japan at #3. By the time you get down the list to France and the UK, though, this is much less the case, and for the likes of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, it most certainly doesn't hold (they don't have any money-rich sugar daddy states buying up their government bonds by default, to keep them afloat).

I think most people have woken up to the reality that, for the likes of mid-ranking economic countries such as ours, simply piling on debt on top of more debt regardless of the economic weather, and mortgaging everyone's futures not only isn't a good idea, but is actually not morally sound either. Why should my grand kids be expected to pay for the opulent retirement arrangements of the baby boomer generation that they themselves will never have, or for the manifest economic failures of our collective, current generations? There's not much very "progressive" about that as far as I can see (to coin the Left's latest buzzword for borrow, tax 'n spend).

We need to face up to responsibilities and reality, and that means cleaning up our own mess I'm afraid, not leaving it all to our hapless kids and grand kids.

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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2015
PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2015 10:11 
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Isn't that lovely?

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Cavey wrote:
... for the likes of mid-ranking economic countries such as ours...


6th or 7th out 200+ is not mid ranking.

Unless you are saying Tottenham are a mid ranking English football club? British American Tobacco are a mid ranking company?

etc

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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2015
PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2015 15:23 
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Um..

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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2015
PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2015 16:00 
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Isn't that lovely?

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You said the UK was a mid ranking economy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... nominal%29

This has the UK as either the 5th or 6th larges economy in the world.

(I thought it was 6/7 not 5/6 but the point still stands)

There are about 200 countries in the world, so that puts the UK in the top 3 or 4 percent.

Not a mid ranking economy, unless you think Tottenham or Liverpool are mid ranking football teams in England (finishing as they did 5th and 6th in the Premier league. or British American Tobacco is a mid ranking company (being the 6th largest company in the FTSE 100) IF you do think those things, then fair enough. A bit odd, but fair enough.

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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2015
PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2015 16:11 
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The UK is a mid ranking economy in the specific context of which we're all talking about here, i.e. economies in a position to borrow and accrue vast hundreds or thousands of billions of pounds worth of national debt. Those at 115th, 140th or 180th place don't generally have this option in the first place. (By way of example, 120th place is Equatorial Guinea, whose entire annual GDP is about £8 Billion)

The IMF specifically mentioned the UK and Norway. (OK Norway is a relatively small economy, but it has an enormous 'investment fund' and vast per-capita oil wealth, hardly the run-of-the-mill)

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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2015
PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2015 16:11 
SupaMod
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That high? Goodness.

Technically anything from #2 to the penultimate one is mid-ranking, though.

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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2015
PostPosted: Tue Jun 09, 2015 10:41 
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Hello Hello Hello

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Posts: 13382
Cavey wrote:
Last night's stand out moment for me was Miliband denying Labour had overspent in their last term...? The questioner's and audience reaction was priceless.


https://theconversation.com/fact-check- ... trol-41118

Quote:
Verdict

If we knew that the financial crisis was about to happen then one could argue that Labour would have delayed some of the pre-crisis spending to help in buffering the impact of the recession. But this is easy to say with the benefit of hindsight. So on this basis, it is unfair to say that Labour “overspent”.


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