Be Excellent To Each Other

Indeed Curio. Hence my comment to Russ: no change in immigration (in fact, it may well increase, which I think is a *good* thing and highly beneficial economically)

Yes.

It will be worse than it is now.

Which is why it'd be stupid to do it.

I think there's a pretty decent chance it won't, but I think if it blows up ( as opposed to slowly breaking apart ) then the UK will get hit by a huge chunk of fall out. No way the eurozone going haywire isn't going to have massive knock on effects.

Agreed, mate, but like I said, those effects - as bad as they will be - would surely be worse still, were we still within the EU (given the cost of all the pre-collapse propping up of the currency and central bank that would have doubtless ensued).

You might find any benefits you receive going out of the window (I doubt nursery tax credits (or whatever they are) will hang around, for example).

Yep, agreed.

Brexit + no Opposition = Eurosceptic politics running utterly unbridled, ToryMax

(Whereas, of course, the smart thing to do, both politically and in actual, pragmatic outcomes terms, would be to engage centrist politics/policies for a true post-EU social consensus and contract; get The People onside. Fat chance though. )

What I find most infuriating is the claims of a mandate for the way the May is going about this, and that it is the smart way forward. Rather than leaving the common market being a direct contravention of a manifesto promise that got this government elected.

Mandates only really matter when there's an opposition.

Well to be fair they *do* have a mandate, the Referendum outcome - and remaining within the free market is not within hers, or our gift? The EU, for entirely understandable political reasons, has told us to GTFF unless we accept *everything*, which in turn is politically impossible for May, as they must surely know. This can only end one way; it could only have *ever* ended one way, as soon as the Leave vote was secured by even as much as one solitary vote, let alone by 2 or 3 points.
Look, I'm not trying to turd-polish here, nor deny that this is anything other than a net bad outcome (though clearly it's nowhere near as bad as predicted thus far, and very likely this will persist). But you know, spilt milk and all that Cras. Hard Brexit it is, then.

I get depressed thinking that all those who voted leave because they felt disadvantaged and ignored by politics are only going to feel even more disadvantaged and ignored if the extreme Brexit goes badly for the country. But then, much like those colonials who voted Republican and are now upset that they might lose their healthcare, a tiny part of me just thinks "screw 'em". Which isn't very nice at all.

I agree entirely - including with your sentiments. We're only human.

I took a photo when I went at the weekend:

So they didn't tear it up, they just left it underground, then?

Nice.

In 4,000 years time I hope there's a similar plaque marking the site of the Tesco.

Well, I doubt they were gentle

The foundations must have gone that deep to find it in the first place, I guess.

...

How the fuck do you unearth a ditch?!

And there it is.

Not one person campaigning for Leave raised a complete exit from the single market. Gove, Hannan, Farage, the entire official Leave set, Johnson, everyone said leaving that would be lunacy.

And now we're committed to it.

Great work!

Anyone who thinks that lack of single market access won't be disastrous is deluded, ignorant or in serious denial.

If that's the case, then I see where she's coming from, it makes sense*.




* It only makes sense if we have to leave the EU, of course. It doesn't make sense in any other world

I hope this is a negotiating tactic. It seems like it might be. I hope it is.

Fuck this fucking country

Oh, I agree. The case made by the Leave campaign that we somehow would not have to leave the single market and "of course" the Germans et al would not want us to leave it was, as I said at the time, complete bullshit. On the other hand, though, people bought it, because these days, in this Twitter-fuelled, post-truth era, no-one ever bothers to check, or indeed think anything through. That's just how it is.

What exactly is a 'bold and ambitious' trade agreement? I mean, trade agreements are pretty much all the same. You agree tariffs and you agree non-tariff stipulations, for each thing you want to trade. Maybe she plans to abolish currency-based trade and insist that deals with the EU can only be accomplished by means of the barter system?

Twitter is a self-reinforcing echo-chamber of beliefs, but it doesn't have the reach you credit it with (especially among the strongly leave demographics). Brexit was a Murdoch/Dacre fuelled post-truth event.

If it makes you feel any better, Labour pretty much thinks the same thing these days.
Nationalism: it's the new zeitgeist. Lovely.

I entirely disagree with you about Twitter I'm afraid, though I don't deny the massive influence of the right wing gutter press also.

The hope still remains that May is massively overplaying her negotiating stance in the hope that she moves the 'Overton Window' of negotiations and can get a more middle ground solution.

I do kinda see that her hands are tied regarding the four indivisible freedoms, but there are still many ways to be a part of the market. Ultimately, if we're not paying a penny towards the market or the regulation of it, why on earth would we suspect that we can have the benefits?

You can evidence it pretty well if you look at research into advertising reach. Because the nature of Twitter is inherently inward-facing because of the follow/retweet mechanic, it's somewhat insular. I don't deny that it's full to the brim of rhetoric and dogma, but because that reach doesn't extend very far, it's all very self-reinforcing instead of outwardly influencing. The papers, online journals like HuffPo, Breitbart, or Mail Online, and Facebook are much more 'influencers' than Twitter is. That goes double when you consider, for example, the elderly - who as a demographic voted heavily in favour of leave and are very much not significant users of Twitter compared to Facebook or the print media.

By coming out so strongly for hard brexit though, surely she's just opening herself up to uturn accusations if the final result is anything short of that?

True, but she tried and ultimately had to accept the best deal she could. We end up with a 'random Scandinavian country' deal and at this point the majority of the country is happy with it.

Is it Sweden?

It's a vain hope, Curio - trust me on this.
There's no way the EU can do any other than to apply tariffs, the only question is how many and how much. Domestic European politics demands it, regardless of what is "good business" or otherwise. They must cut their noses and spite their faces, because the alternative political backlash at home is beyond even contemplating. GB must be "punished", sadly.

The only mitigation I can see is precisely the UK stealing a march with other trade deals with other blocs, leading to a "horse has bolted" scenario whereby such punitive measures are more cosmetic and for show... but difficult to see how it'll play out. The UK does have a few aces up its sleeve too, most notably the aggressive tax haven and zero Corporation Tax card.

In the end, it'll look much worse than it actually is, in order to satisfy the EU domestic blood-lust for punishment, as set against triggering real-world self-preservation countermeasures that are necessarily too disruptive and radical. That's my take on it anyway; even the divorce will be an EU-style over substance fudge. So: tariffs, but only little ones - 3% sounds about right.

MPs get to vote on the deal though. Interesting if that will see any opposition (probably nothing meaningful but you never know).

The problem with slashing Corp Tax and acting as a haven is that it will, at least initially, mean we career headlong into Debtsville.

That is surely unavoidable; we were on that path before Brexit anyway (along with most of the rest of the world btw.).
Besides, I don't think actual corporation tax receipts form such a massive part of overall tax revenue, do they?

Or, to set out a position so detrimental, people have to say "Wait, hang on...". But, that is the hope I have left.

I'm expecting principled opposition from the SNP and the Liberal Democrats, a united front from the Conservatives (Ken Clarke and Nicky Morgan on 'special research trip' to Siberia), and an embarrassing clusterfuck from Labour.

I've never been happy with putting agreements to a legislature on a simple 'up/down' vote, as it doesn't offer the option of amendment.

Expecting 'principled opposition' from the SNP is like expecting the finest foie gras to emerge from my dog's arse.

But have you ever eaten it? I mean, you never know!

Oh, very much this. I don't condemn people for voting the other way, but I also am not going to change my views overnight: I am willing to be proved wrong on this as much as I currently hope others will.

Heh. No chance.
Even if it's every bit as bad as Cras seems to think it's going to be - we just don't do stuff like that here. (These days people are, if anything, even *more* timid, just keeping their heads down)

And on this point, is it going to be a vote on leaving with the deal, or just falling out, or with a 'let's not do this at all' option? I doubt very much that such a vote would be offered, or such an amendment being accepted.

I fear I might end up being as tedious as Cicero (I'm reading Mary Beard's 'SPQR' at the moment, and very good it is too) and end every political speech with the same line (perhaps 'Et placuit relinquere'), just to keep it in people's minds.

But by that point are we not already too late ?

If we trigger article 50 we're saying 'we want out'

At a later point if there is an agreed deal on the table and its not accepted / voted for we're still out ?

Does seem like a binary option:

Leave with this deal
Leave with no deal

... I'm not going to pretend that I didn't have to look up Cicero *and* Google-translate that phrase.

All the other straws have fallen away, and I am left with this one, which also represents hope.