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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 18:18 
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The government's super-secret Brexit forecast doc has been released. One highlight:

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/ ... 2071555072




Worth noting that tiny, tiny "things that might get better after Brexit" blue box is a possible future FTA with the USA. This predates Trump starting a trade war, however. Yeah.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:06 
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Uh oh.

https://twitter.com/Independent/status/ ... 0375539712




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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:07 
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It feels rather like the wheels are about to fall off.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:14 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
It feels rather like the wheels are about to fall off.


Remember it won't be our fault at all.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:15 
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Lord Humongous

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Come on fellow Remoaners, one last push of common fucking sense. Please!

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:15 
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Unpossible!

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It's funny, I tend to imagine the EU as French, German continentals, but something just flipped in my head that made me realise that Ireland is very definitely 'on the other side'.

Must be a 'they speak English' thing


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:16 
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DavPaz wrote:
It's funny, I tend to imagine the EU as French, German continentals, but something just flipped in my head that made me realise that Ireland is very definitely 'on the other side'.

Must be a 'they speak English' thing


Na, just 1000 years of colonialism.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:16 
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DavPaz wrote:
It's funny, I tend to imagine the EU as French, German continentals, but something just flipped in my head that made me realise that Ireland is very definitely 'on the other side'.

Must be a 'they speak English' thing


Had Scotland left, we would be doing exactly the same as the EU is to us. You left, your problem. We've got our people and interests to protect.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:17 
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The Irish are very much on the other side. Predominantly because of colonialism.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:20 
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Zardoz wrote:
Come on fellow Remoaners, one last push of common fucking sense. Please!


I wish I'd kept my MP's election leaflet from last year. I threw it out in anger as she was just saying how there would be 'no turning back' and how north Oxfordshire's businesses were in a great position to take advantage of the 'opportunities' offered by Brexit.

Naturally, I emailed her to ask what these were.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:23 
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Zardoz wrote:
Come on fellow Remoaners, one last push of common fucking sense. Please!

I don't see any hope there. May is too weak to resist the headbangers and shallow opportunists who are, in effect, running the country now. Johnson, just last night:

Quote:
The Foreign Secretary responded “I’ve never been one of those who is apprehensive about the so-called no deal scenario. No deal is better than a bad deal.” When challenged by restless audience members over a perceived lack of no deal preparations he responded “I know it may hold terrors for you. It doesn’t hold terrors for me.”


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:24 
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Right, so we've reached the 'Christian Scientist with Appendicitis' stage.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:27 
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Lonewolves wrote:
The Irish are very much on the other side. Predominantly because of colonialism.


Predominantly I would suggest because they have the common sense to know two things:

1) Having 25 friends is better than having 1 friend
2) Especially when the 1 friend is threatening a return to violence at your northern border

There's little of the 'anti-english' about it, from what I've seen, if anything it's the opposite, and they're better able to deal in practical realities rather than emotional responses. And their leadership is slightly less of a bunch of knobends.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:59 
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I'm more thinking of Sinn Fein's continued refusal to take their Westminster seats even though they could probably bring down this government and stop Brexit if they did so.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 12:10 
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Lonewolves wrote:
I'm more thinking of Sinn Fein's continued refusal to take their Westminster seats even though they could probably bring down this government and stop Brexit if they did so.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theg ... ans-brexit

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 12:13 
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Lonewolves wrote:
I'm more thinking of Sinn Fein's continued refusal to take their Westminster seats even though they could probably bring down this government and stop Brexit if they did so.


You seem a little confused about who "The Irish" are ;)

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 12:25 
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Unpossible!

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Oh man, can you imagine the shit storm if Irish Nationalists stopped Brexit!?


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 12:32 
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DavPaz wrote:
Oh man, can you imagine the shit storm if Irish Nationalists stopped Brexit!?

Can you imagine the shitstorm if they don't and the worst happens? The worst case scenario is a hard border, the end of the Good Friday agreement, and the return of sectarian violence. It puts Sinn Fein further from its stated goals of Irish unification than ever.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 12:52 
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Unpossible!

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You could say it's a complex issue that can't be properly explored with a simple yes/no vote...


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 13:03 
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Cras wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:
I'm more thinking of Sinn Fein's continued refusal to take their Westminster seats even though they could probably bring down this government and stop Brexit if they did so.


You seem a little confused about who "The Irish" are ;)

Sinn Fein are an Irish political party!

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 13:10 
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DavPaz wrote:
You could say it's a complex issue that can't be properly explored with a simple yes/no vote...

That would be an ecumenical matter.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 13:11 
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Lonewolves wrote:
Cras wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:
I'm more thinking of Sinn Fein's continued refusal to take their Westminster seats even though they could probably bring down this government and stop Brexit if they did so.

You seem a little confused about who "The Irish" are ;)

Sinn Fein are an Irish political party!

They're not, though. That's their self-image, but as they are elected by British citizens to a British parliament I'm pretty sure they're a British party.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 13:12 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
British citizens to a British parliament I'm pretty sure they're a British party.


Careful saying that in Derry.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 13:12 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:
Cras wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:
I'm more thinking of Sinn Fein's continued refusal to take their Westminster seats even though they could probably bring down this government and stop Brexit if they did so.

You seem a little confused about who "The Irish" are ;)

Sinn Fein are an Irish political party!

They're not, though. That's their self-image, but as they are elected by British citizens to a British parliament I'm pretty sure they're a British party.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 13:19 
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Isn't that lovely?

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Northern Ireland is not part of Britain, it is part of the United Kingdom.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 13:22 
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Malc wrote:
Northern Ireland is not part of Britain, it is part of the United Kingdom.


That is correct. It definitely isn't part of Ireland though. Unless you're talking about Ireland rather than Ireland.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 13:26 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:
Cras wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:
I'm more thinking of Sinn Fein's continued refusal to take their Westminster seats even though they could probably bring down this government and stop Brexit if they did so.

You seem a little confused about who "The Irish" are ;)

Sinn Fein are an Irish political party!

They're not, though. That's their self-image, but as they are elected by British citizens to a British parliament I'm pretty sure they're a British party.

Psst, they have MPs in the south too.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 13:31 
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Right. But not ones with Westminster seats.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 13:34 
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Cras wrote:
Right. But not ones with Westminster seats.

But they're still Irish and an Irish political party. So I don't see your point.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 13:47 
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Lonewolves wrote:
Cras wrote:
Right. But not ones with Westminster seats.

But they're still Irish and an Irish political party. So I don't see your point.

I'm pretty comfortable saying that you're not an Irish politician if you don't serve in the Irish parliament or work for the Irish government. The alternative is semantic chaos. I understand Sinn Fein's stance and where it comes from, but it's rhetoric.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 13:51 
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Lonewolves wrote:
Cras wrote:
Right. But not ones with Westminster seats.

But they're still Irish and an Irish political party. So I don't see your point.


That you said "the Irish" aren't on our side then went on to talk about Sinn Fein, as if they were representative of the population of the Republic of Ireland, despite being a minority single-issue party.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 19:06 

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Lonewolves wrote:
Sinn Fein are an Irish political party!

Attachment:
939772E4-5890-4970-90A6-972348303E0C.jpeg


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 23:08 
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https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ip-446262/

Thomas Cook has added a Brexit clause to their booking terms and conditions. Reserves the right to cancel any trip after March 2019 if they cannot operate due to our loss of access to the Open Skies agreement. If that happens, I imagine they keep your money — the risk is on the consumer, not the agent. And your travel insurance won’t be interested either I suspect. Caveat emptor.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 23:21 
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Having worked in travel, I imagine they’re absolutely bricking it about what this will do to bookings.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 19:17 
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Oh :(

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/ ... 0170501120



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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 20:04 
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Forecast schmorecast! We've had enough of experts.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 15:08 
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https://news.sky.com/story/boards-of-do ... q-11289411

Unilever's board is meeting today and is expected to vote to move its HQ from the UK to Holland.

There are mitigating factors; one is that under Dutch corporate law, it can use legal defences against hostile takeovers, like the one last year from Heinz that it narrowly escaped. And few job losses are expected as the UK office will continue, albeit as a satellite. It's still an uncomfortable symbol of a diminished Brexit Britain though.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:36 
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https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/ ... 3149585409




Taking back control of our borders by not having any.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:50 
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The government are probably remembering the 2000 fuel crisis and how bad pictures of lorries not moving will be for their popularity.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:53 
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Kern wrote:
The government are probably remembering the 2000 fuel crisis and how bad pictures of lorries not moving will be for their popularity.


Fun fact: I was in Majorca when that was on and had my photo taken for use in the Virgin Sun holiday brochure!

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:56 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/974587573149585409

Taking back control of our borders by not having any.


The government is terrified, isn't it? Chickens coming home to roost.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:58 
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Kern wrote:
The government are probably remembering the 2000 fuel crisis and how bad pictures of lorries not moving will be for their popularity.


https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/ ... 2638109696




If it's not reciprocal, we're just gonna have outbound lorries stuck instead of inbound.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 13:22 
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Kern wrote:
The government are probably remembering the 2000 fuel crisis and how bad pictures of lorries not moving will be for their popularity.

I learned the other week about Operation Stack and I can well imagine that it's going to become rather more commonplace after we officially leave...

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 13:51 
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Isn't that lovely?

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https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/ ... 9904645120



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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 13:52 
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I'm still digesting this but... some actual OK news about the Brexit process, I think?

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/ ... 7399945217




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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 14:11 
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There's a concern that they've basically just once again kicked the Ireland can further down the road, but it's certainly progress.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 14:28 
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Cras wrote:
There's a concern that they've basically just once again kicked the Ireland can further down the road, but it's certainly progress.

It does appear we've capitulated on some major issues eg. EU nationals arriving in the UK during the transition period. It'll be interesting to see what the Brexit press make of it.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 15:07 
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Erm...

https://www.ft.com/content/d0fc0ef2-2a0 ... 4b9f08f381

Quote:
Britain’s aviation regulator is doing no preparatory work to take over responsibilities from the EU’s watchdog, EASA, after Brexit, as “it would be misleading to suggest that’s a viable option”.

The striking comment was made by the chief executive of the Civil Aviation Authority in testimony to parliament’s cross-party business committee, which on Monday publishes its findings on the impact of Brexit on the aerospace sector. 

The MPs conclude that the UK’s buoyant aerospace sector would be irreparably damaged if it did not remain deeply integrated in Europe’s regulatory and manufacturing hubs after Britain leaves the EU. 


Rest of text follows...

ZOMG Spoiler! Click here to view!
Quote:
“There is no trade-off between close harmonisation with the EU and access to markets beyond the EU. Instead, the two goals are complementary,” the report states. 

While MPs welcomed the prime minister’s statement that the UK hoped to remain in EASA, even as a non-voting member, they stressed that the government should push for as much influence as possible. 

That call was backed up by Rolls-Royce, the world’s second largest aero-engine maker. A non-voting “associate membership” would be “better than nothing”, a spokesman said. But he added: “We strongly believe it is in the UK’s interest to retain its ability to shape future regulation where it will impact British businesses, and we are working with the government towards that aim.” 

Given the just-in-time supply chains operated by the industry, even border delays of a few hours could materially undermine UK competitiveness

Cross-party report
MPs also sounded alarm bells over the lack of clarity on transition arrangements, noting that several companies were preparing to take “costly and disruptive” contingency measures, such as stockpiling inventory, which could affect the sector’s competitiveness. 

“It is in the interests of the UK and the EU27 that both sides . . . reach a firm agreement in the coming weeks on the arrangements for a transition,” they say. 

They reiterate the industry’s own estimate that increased checks at the customs and immigration alone could add an extra £1.5bn in cost to a sector that depends on people and components being able to cross borders several times and at short notice. 

Airbus, for example, has a two-hour turnround for its Beluga jet that flies wings from its factory in Wales for integration on aircraft in Toulouse or Hamburg. 

“Given the just-in-time supply chains operated by the industry, even border delays of a few hours could materially undermine UK competitiveness,” the report states. 

The analysis is the third in the select committee’s investigation into the impact of leaving the EU on specific sectors of the economy. MPs point out that aerospace employs 114,000 people at global companies such as Airbus, Rolls-Royce, Bombardier and GKN.

The report stresses that the sector, which accounts for 0.7 per cent of total UK output and 7 per cent of manufacturing, is one of the UK’s most productive. Output per employee is 18 per cent higher than the average in manufacturing — and 49 per cent higher than the economy as a whole. Just under half of the annual £32bn revenue is exported. 

“UK aerospace exports are highly dependent on participation in the European and global supply chain,” the report states. 

Maintaining the sector’s competitiveness would also depend on the UK’s continued participation in EU research and development projects, which would also help to ensure access to European funding and cross-border collaboration.

Recommended
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Winners and losers in an EU-UK free trade agreement
The UK is a net beneficiary from EU research and innovation funding, with the aerospace sector receiving some £100m a year from the Horizon 2020 programme, MPs say. 

Industry welcomed the MPs’ conclusions. Paul Everitt, chief executive of ADS, the industry trade body, said time was running out to give the industry clarity before investment would begin to be affected.

“It is vital that the UK and EU27 agree a comprehensive transition agreement as soon as possible, to give industry the breathing space it needs to adjust to the new long-term partnership arrangements,” he said. 

The Aerospace Technology Institute also stressed that if the UK wanted to win new work on the next wave of aircraft programmes it was important to maintain participation in the so-called “demonstrator” projects that would determine future technology choices. “Continued engagement with Europe in science and technology, both at academic and industrial level, is essential to maintaining the UK’s competitiveness,” said Gary Elliott chief executive.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 15:32 
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One step forward, two steps back. :(

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 18:23 
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Farage already calling the PM 'Theresa the Appeaser' which would be quite funny under different circumstances.

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