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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:17 
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Kern wrote:
BBC: £350m Brexit claim was 'too low', says Boris Johnson

Oh, please kindly go on an extended trade mission to Siberia.


I did like this excellent burn from Labour on the subject: "Our NHS is in the middle of a winter crisis and Boris Johnson's solution is to return to the scene of his previous crimes and promise ever larger slices of pie in the sky."


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:10 
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Ian Dunt's short piece on the government's options and the current situation is a quick and useful read. Not particularly hopeful, uplifting, or likely to increase your confidence in Her Majesty's Government, but we can't have everything.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:16 
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I really can't see how this is going to end up with anything other than a shambling, fudged, "In-the-EU-in-all-but-name" compromise agreement that will make everyone involved angry, whilst giving precisely zero benefits.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Jan 29, 2018 22:56 
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https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardell ... uk-will-be

Quote:
The government's new analysis of the impact of Brexit says the UK would be worse off outside the European Union under every scenario modelled, BuzzFeed News can reveal.

The assessment, which is titled “EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing” and dated January 2018, looked at three of the most plausible Brexit scenarios based on existing EU arrangements.

Under a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU, UK growth would be 5% lower over the next 15 years compared to current forecasts, according to the analysis.

The "no deal" scenario, which would see the UK revert to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, would reduce growth by 8% over that period. The softest Brexit option of continued single-market access through membership of the European Economic Area would, in the longer term, still lower growth by 2%.

These calculations do not take into account any short-term hits to the economy from Brexit, such as the cost of adjusting the economy to new customs arrangements.

The assessment seen by BuzzFeed News is being kept tightly guarded inside government. It was prepared by officials across Whitehall for the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU), and is reportedly being presented to key ministers in one-to-one meetings this week ahead of discussion at the Brexit cabinet subcommittee next week.

Asked why the prime minister was not making the analysis public, a DExEU source told BuzzFeed News: "Because it's embarrassing."



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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:50 
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'See, it's not a 25% loss. Stop spreading your PROJECT FEAR. No turning back'


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:58 
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Gogmagog

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Well. This is awkward for everyone.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:48 
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MaliA wrote:
Well. This is awkward for everyone.


I know. My MP hasn't replied to my most recent letter on this yet and I hate these things being superseded by events.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:56 
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What's frustrating is that this is the ideal opportunity for Mr Corbyn to demonstrate to his critics at he isn't a dogmatic ideologue and can turn round and say 'this is great in theory, but as it can't work without harming people, let's not do this', and yet he's still ruling out even just staying in the single market/customs union.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:05 
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Be reassured by this clear answer in the Commons yesterday, which I'm quoting in full:

Quote:
Paul Masterton (East Renfrewshire) (Con)

The British people are, in the main, not ideological but practical and pragmatic. They simply want Brexit to work. Will the Minister assure me that the Government’s policy will be dictated not by fringe groups, either in this place or outside it, but by the national interest?

Mr Walker (Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union)
  
Yes.

Hansard link

Rest easy.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:19 
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Gogmagog

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Kern wrote:
What's frustrating is that this is the ideal opportunity for Mr Corbyn to demonstrate to his critics at he isn't a dogmatic ideologue and can turn round and say 'this is great in theory, but as it can't work without harming people, let's not do this', and yet he's still ruling out even just staying in the single market/customs union.



https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/stat ... 7660695552



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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:30 
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Heh.

Skimming a piece in the Guardian about Mary Beard and came across possibly the best description of those obsessed with leave:

Quote:
The referendum then, should not be treated as the final word, she said, but as a straw vote. “Sure, say we want to leave, but you can only in the end say we are going to leave when we know what it means. Otherwise,” she said, “it’s just wanking in the dark."


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:10 
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Gogmagog

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Ace. Although, I just got Beard confused with Berry, which made it odd.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:06 
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It seems the very best line May could find was that this is “preliminary” analysis so should be discounted.

https://twitter.com/simon_nixon/status/ ... 2695625728




We’re over a year and a half from the referendum. How long does it take to produce some trustworthy, solid, non-preliminary analysis?


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:18 
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What's concerning me is that it seems roughly in line with other analyses, such as those produced by the EU, the Bank of England, various thinktanks, and universities. Perhaps I'm limiting myself in what I'm exposing myself to, but if everything is pointing in one direction there's either a heck of a flaw in the underlying assumptions or the destination is clear.

I really would like something as cold and detailed as Ian Dunt's book. The only pro-Brexit stuff I've read tends to be of the unicorns-in-air-castles variety. Wish we could go back to not caring about the intricacies of cross-border aeroplane regulation and suchlike.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:33 
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None of it matters. People didn't vote to leave the EU on the basis of a hard-headed assessment of the economics and they aren't going to accept not leaving on the basis of that either. Brexiters only really need to point to the referendum result to justify their position.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:55 
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The result was 52-48 on a very blunt question. No plan for leaving was ever put forward: people were voting blind. Mrs May could, when she became prime minister, have recognised the massive splits in the country and sought a compromise plan that probably would have satisfied nobody but at least showed a willingness to bring people together, for example leaving the EU but staying in the EEA. Some benefits of membership, some of leaving (eg, not in the Union per se), but more in line with the outcome.

Instead, for reasons of keeping the Conservatives together, she opted for a hardest possible Brexit. It isn't unreasonable to think that such decisions should be made after an examination of all the options, especially when your main criticism of the opposition is they do things out of ideology, not evidence. I also don't think it's wise for Parliament to let the government proceed without a full understanding of the implications and options. It's very concerning when ministers are afraid to show their workings or justify their positions: they should be able to argue for their position based on the merits of the hard Brexit itself, rather having to resort to vague language or muttering about the 'will of the people' (and it's somewhat nauseating to hear Tories rely on the views of Jean-Jacques Rousseau!).


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:00 
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Good post. Kier Starmer was shit on R4 this am.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:02 
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Anyone know what they plan to do with passports for the UK?

I've seen the news that we will all get Blue ones back for anything issues after we leave in 2019, although also read there is a chance these could be made in Berlin :D

What happens with current EU passports after we leave though? Mine was renewed last year so is good to 2027. Will I get EU movement for this time or will I have any restrictions that come with our exit in 2019?

Not a big deal but the automatic passport control systems in most major EU airports make travel a lot easier for EU passport holders.

Getting Irish passports for my kids, they can get these no issues as my wife holds one.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:05 
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Kern wrote:
The result was 52-48 on a very blunt question. No plan for leaving was ever put forward: people were voting blind. Mrs May could, when she became prime minister, have recognised the massive splits in the country and sought a compromise plan that probably would have satisfied nobody but at least showed a willingness to bring people together, for example leaving the EU but staying in the EEA. Some benefits of membership, some of leaving (eg, not in the Union per se), but more in line with the outcome.

Instead, for reasons of keeping the Conservatives together, she opted for a hardest possible Brexit. It isn't unreasonable to think that such decisions should be made after an examination of all the options, especially when your main criticism of the opposition is they do things out of ideology, not evidence. I also don't think it's wise for Parliament to let the government proceed without a full understanding of the implications and options. It's very concerning when ministers are afraid to show their workings or justify their positions: they should be able to argue for their position based on the merits of the hard Brexit itself, rather having to resort to vague language or muttering about the 'will of the people' (and it's somewhat nauseating to hear Tories rely on the views of Jean-Jacques Rousseau!).
What do you mean that she "opted for the hardest possible Brexit"? As far as I can tell (which is not really very far) she seems to be just bungling her way through from one disaster to the next with no clear plan and hoping that the outcome will be some sort of a fudge.

I'm all for mitigating the disaster that they have wrought but a country is more than an economy and when I think it through I'm coming to believe that outright avoiding Brexit altogether would more damaging than going ahead. The divisions and hatred that these fucking clowns brought to the surface with their idiotic referendum would just get so much worse.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:06 
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asfish wrote:
Getting Irish passports for my kids, they can get these no issues as my wife holds one.


Unless you travel with the kids without your wife. Be prepared to answer a lot of questions.

When we flew back from New York, the missus was questioned because her ticket was in her maiden name, but her passport was in her married name. It was our honeymoon.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:12 
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DavPaz wrote:
asfish wrote:
Getting Irish passports for my kids, they can get these no issues as my wife holds one.


Unless you travel with the kids without your wife. Be prepared to answer a lot of questions.

When we flew back from New York, the missus was questioned because her ticket was in her maiden name, but her passport was in her married name. It was our honeymoon.


We get some questions already, the kids have UK passports, on the application, it asks for parents passports numbers but only UK passports are applicable. So my wife has to take a birth certificate if traveling with them alone in the EU as there is no record aside from this to link her to the kids.

We always travel as a family in the EU so we just all go up together at UK passport control and explain.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:13 
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markg wrote:
What do you mean that she "opted for the hardest possible Brexit"?


The logic of her 'red lines' in the Lancaster House speech last year (no single market; no customs union; no role for the ECJ) essentially mean that we have to become a third country.

Quote:
As far as I can tell (which is not really very far) she seems to be just bungling her way through from one disaster to the next with no clear plan and hoping that the outcome will be some sort of a fudge.

Given how much we've already rolled over (remember the 'fight of the summer' that was resolved in two minutes by us saying 'yes'), an extended transition and fudge does feel likely. There's no way we can avoid a hard border with Ireland otherwise. But I have no confidence in their endgame or current approach.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:16 
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asfish wrote:
What happens with current EU passports after we leave though? Mine was renewed last year so is good to 2027. Will I get EU movement for this time or will I have any restrictions that come with our exit in 2019?


We get to join the slow queue and enjoy the benefits of being a free nation whilst waiting for hours with the rest of the world.

Quote:
Getting Irish passports for my kids, they can get these no issues as my wife holds one.


I need to finish off gathering documents. Getting a notarised copy of my mother's passport and one of mine is the main delay for me at the moment. But it shouldn't be necessary and I'm disgusted that nobody in Parliament or the media (outside of the odd James O'Brien rant) seem to realise that losing the rights to travel, live, work, love, and study freely across the continent is a massive reduction of our freedom.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:16 
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DavPaz wrote:

When we flew back from New York, the missus was questioned because her ticket was in her maiden name, but her passport was in her married name. It was our honeymoon.

Don’t ever do this, everyone else. These days she wouldn’t have gotten on the plane. There’s no “we’re on our honeymoon” pass for having mismatched passenger data.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:21 
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markg wrote:

I'm all for mitigating the disaster that they have wrought but a country is more than an economy and when I think it through I'm coming to believe that outright avoiding Brexit altogether would more damaging than going ahead. The divisions and hatred that these fucking clowns brought to the surface with their idiotic referendum would just get so much worse.


I'd naively hoped that by now, more brexiters would have seen the light since the referendum. I've still yet to see a single good reason for leaving whereas the list of potential negatives just pile up. And yet they stubbornly stick to their guns. I'm not sure what would convince them - even if Farage and Boris would to release a statement saying 'look, we were wrong.. Brexit is going to be a disaster', these folk will still blindly go on about the will of the people.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:25 
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Kern wrote:
asfish wrote:
What happens with current EU passports after we leave though? Mine was renewed last year so is good to 2027. Will I get EU movement for this time or will I have any restrictions that come with our exit in 2019?


We get to join the slow queue and enjoy the benefits of being a free nation whilst waiting for hours with the rest of the world.

Quote:
Getting Irish passports for my kids, they can get these no issues as my wife holds one.


I need to finish off gathering documents. Getting a notarised copy of my mother's passport and one of mine is the main delay for me at the moment. But it shouldn't be necessary and I'm disgusted that nobody in Parliament or the media (outside of the odd James O'Brien rant) seem to realise that losing the rights to travel, live, work, love, and study freely across the continent is a massive reduction of our freedom.


2 copies, please, bill me half.

Agree with the rest.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:42 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
DavPaz wrote:

When we flew back from New York, the missus was questioned because her ticket was in her maiden name, but her passport was in her married name. It was our honeymoon.

Don’t ever do this, everyone else. These days she wouldn’t have gotten on the plane. There’s no “we’re on our honeymoon” pass for having mismatched passenger data.

It took some persuading. Weirdly, we were fine flying out, going through US immigration and leaving the US. It was only returning to the UK that caused a problem. Side note, the US border patrol guy was awesome. The perfect guy to be greeting new arrivals.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:50 
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Kern wrote:
asfish wrote:
What happens with current EU passports after we leave though? Mine was renewed last year so is good to 2027. Will I get EU movement for this time or will I have any restrictions that come with our exit in 2019?


We get to join the slow queue and enjoy the benefits of being a free nation whilst waiting for hours with the rest of the world.

Quote:
Getting Irish passports for my kids, they can get these no issues as my wife holds one.


I need to finish off gathering documents. Getting a notarised copy of my mother's passport and one of mine is the main delay for me at the moment. But it shouldn't be necessary and I'm disgusted that nobody in Parliament or the media (outside of the odd James O'Brien rant) seem to realise that losing the rights to travel, live, work, love, and study freely across the continent is a massive reduction of our freedom.


Looking at it, our kids get an Irish passport no issue, as their mother is a citizen.

Not sure I get one that easily though, I meet some criteria such as over 3 years marriage but not lived there for any length of time.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:56 
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DavPaz wrote:
Side note, the US border patrol guy was awesome. The perfect guy to be greeting new arrivals.


The worst border control experience I ever had was Canada. I got the proper third degree, questioning ever place I planned to visit and why I hadn't booked a package tour.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:07 
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Cras wrote:
DavPaz wrote:
Side note, the US border patrol guy was awesome. The perfect guy to be greeting new arrivals.


The worst border control experience I ever had was Canada. I got the proper third degree, questioning ever place I planned to visit and why I hadn't booked a package tour.


Heh. I once had a tricky conversation trying to convince a Canadian border guy that I didn't particularly want to visit Canada, I just had to change planes there. The particular airport I was in didn't have a transit corridor.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:24 
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I once went to Riga in Lativa for a work trip - the passport guy was all smiles and happy and politeness and I went through with my British passport in about 5 secs. My colleague, directly behind me, had a Russian passport and got a VERY different reception from the same chap. Scowls and about 5 mins of very abrupt questions.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 13:01 
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Don't expect Japanese border control guards to see the funny side if Cadburys Cream eggs rolls out of your packed shoes in a baggage inspection.

I've never tried to keep a straight face as much as I did then.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 13:59 
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"In a shoe."

The response Cadbury's never expected.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 14:07 
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When me and Mrs Hearthly were returning home from our honeymoon in Florida (this would be September 1998), the guy at the airport (Orlando?) where you put your bags on the conveyor belt and show your tickets asked all the usual questions and there was one about is there anything dangerous in there (or however they phrase the question).

Because I'm an idiot I jokily said, 'Oh just a bomb we've made'.

The chap laughed but then gave me a friendly telling off saying that we could get in trouble for that, and I shouldn't say it again.

Then he let us carry on through boarding and wished us a pleasant flight.

YES OBVIOUSLY I WOULDN'T SAY SOMETHING LIKE THAT THESE DAYS, but there was no terrorism in 1998 unless the IRA count.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 14:15 
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It was only funny because you're white ;)


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 14:16 
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Pretty sure the IRA count. Also, like, the Unabomber, who tried to smuggle a bomb onto a plane in his luggage, but okay.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 14:29 
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Image


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 14:53 
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Cras wrote:
Pretty sure the IRA count.


They blew up me and Mrs Hearthly's favourite pub in Manchester. That's when terrorism got real for us.

(We'd actually been in it the day before, they had a ST:TNG pinball and a Big Breakfast fruit machine downstairs, and a Crystal Maze SWP upstairs. I can't even bear to think of what happened to them.)


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 15:18 
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Hearthly wrote:
Because I'm an idiot I jokily said, 'Oh just a bomb we've made'.
The chap laughed but then gave me a friendly telling off saying that we could get in trouble for that, and I shouldn't say it again.
Then he let us carry on through boarding and wished us a pleasant flight.

Seriously? Well, that doesn't really speak very highly of their security protocols does it?


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 15:18 
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Hearthly wrote:
(We'd actually been in it the day before, they had a ST:TNG pinball ... I can't even bear to think of what happened to them.)

It boldly went where no pinball machine had gone before.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 15:35 
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Seems they will publish the studies. Lolz

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:13 
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Anna Soubry gave a pretty firery speech yesterday. Worth reading in full. I particularly like this bit:

Quote:
I see it in these terms. I think there is a group of people—the hard Brexiteers—and you are not going to change them. In my party, my Government believe that somehow they can “manage” the 35 hard Brexiteers, who for decades have been banging on about Europe in ​a way that I think is not, at times, particularly good for their mental health—and they think they can “manage” them. They cannot be managed. Even if they were given what they wanted today, they would complain that it had not been done yesterday. For many of them it is a battle to the death, and they will not hesitate to destroy this party or our Prime Minister to get what they want. They can see the prize and they will be damned if anybody is going to get in their way. The Government need to wake up to that reality.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:49 
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And, a few hours later, she follows up with a knowing brick joke during the debate on vacating the Palace of Westminster for rebuilding:

Anna Soubry wrote:
I say a huge thank you to my right hon. Friend and her team for all their excellent work, but does she not agree that the time for talking is over? We have to grasp this, do the right thing, and—I cannot believe I am going to say this—but in this instance, in supporting amendment (b), absolutely everybody vote leave.


She's fast becoming my second favourite Tory. After Cavey, obviously.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:35 
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:DD :luv:

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:26 
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I have just read his speech and I'd like to drink whatever Lord Saatchi has been drinking:

Quote:
So far in this debate, we have certainly been presented with many nightmare scenarios. So now, as we approach the end, perhaps I may paint your Lordships a picture, if you will allow me, of the dream scenario: a happy ending to the story.​

So I bring your Lordships joyous news. It is a photo opportunity to be shared in social media and across all TVs, all platforms, all devices all over the world. It immediately goes viral and is downloaded 1.2 billion times in 43 seconds—a global media sensation. There are three people in the picture: German Chancellor Merkel, French President Macron and, standing between them and slightly in front of them, British Prime Minister Theresa May. The backdrop is the Eiffel Tower in Paris. Chancellor Merkel speaks first. She says: “Today, every citizen of Europe gives thanks to British Prime Minister May for this historic agreement, signed by us, which guarantees the peace, prosperity and security of all the people of Europe”. A spectacular fireworks display then illuminates the Eiffel Tower and the whole of the sky above Paris is dazzling red, white and blue

... and it gets weirder and weirder.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:31 
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UltraMod

Joined: 27th Mar, 2008
Posts: 55715
Location: California
That could be possible. If we withdraw article 50.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:53 
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Posts: 32618
Interesting thread (click through to read it all)

https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/stat ... 6579155974




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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 13:19 
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Heavy Metal Tough Guy

Joined: 31st Mar, 2008
Posts: 6496
Kern wrote:
I have just read his speech and I'd like to drink whatever Lord Saatchi has been drinking


Wow, that's quite something.

Quote:
She is voted one of the greatest Prime Ministers of all time, and a grateful nation erects a bronze statue of her in Parliament Square.


Yes. This is definitely going to happen. 100% certain.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:56 
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Posts: 32618
Crying

https://twitter.com/michaelpdeacon/stat ... 2406001664




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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Feb 02, 2018 13:31 
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Joined: 27th Mar, 2008
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Incredible

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