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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:30 
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I'm increasingly concerned that as the Tories and the Brexit mob struggle to keep afloat, they're going to take more and more ideas from the US Republicans' playbook and exacerbate divisions by using such language and probably bringing in more dog-whistle anti-establishment crap. I really don't think that would be good for our country or our political system.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:32 
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In other Brexit news, the head of NHS England is reportedly going to bring back the bus today. I'm sure Mr Johnson and Mr Gove, amongst others, will be delighted.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:01 
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Kern wrote:
I'm increasingly concerned that as the Tories and the Brexit mob struggle to keep afloat, they're going to take more and more ideas from the US Republicans' playbook and exacerbate divisions by using such language and probably bringing in more dog-whistle anti-establishment crap. I really don't think that would be good for our country or our political system.


I'm inclined to agree with you. There's no longer any debate, it's people shouting and shouting and shouting and there's no reason, just agendas. For or against, and so on and so forth.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:09 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Kern wrote:
A minister from DExEU in the Commons, yesterday:

Steve Baker wrote:
I think that the public will look at Labour Members today, look at what they are asking for, look at the kind of narrative they are trying to create, and ask, “Whose side are they on?”


I despair.

bloody hellfire

Can someone ELI5?

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:18 
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Gogmagog

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Grim... wrote:
Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Kern wrote:
A minister from DExEU in the Commons, yesterday:

Steve Baker wrote:
I think that the public will look at Labour Members today, look at what they are asking for, look at the kind of narrative they are trying to create, and ask, “Whose side are they on?”


I despair.

bloody hellfire

Can someone ELI5?


He's pissed off the opposition are oppositioning, been caught in a tricky position regarding the assessments of this folly, so decides that attacking the opposition is a Good Thing

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:55 
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Oh, lookie here

http://uk.businessinsider.com/unemployment-in-the-uk-is-now-so-low-its-in-danger-of-exposing-the-lie-used-to-create-the-numbers-2017-7


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:48 
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Also the whole idea that you're on the side of The British People or you're not. And you're not the opposition, you're traitors to The British People.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:51 
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"It's great that unemployment has now reached -6%!" :D


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:52 
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Cras wrote:
Also the whole idea that you're on the side of The British People or you're not. And you're not the opposition, you're traitors to The British People.

Quite. It's the "Enemies Of The People" Daily Mail headline, but being spoken by an MP about other MPs.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 15:39 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Pundabaya wrote:
If it was 4% unemployment, wages would be trending upwards. Labour would be a seller's market.

Guess what? Wages are stagnant.
...

In other words, the ONS are cooking the books. As usual.

Well, ONS actually agree with you that wages are flat: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlab ... ngs/latest ("real" figures there are inflation adjusted, so are the ones you want to look at.)

No idea why wages wouldn't go up if unemployment was so low. Seems like, as you say, competion for labour in an efficient market should increase them.


In my experience, staff retention in unskilled work is a problem at present, especially due to the living wage and an abundance of jobs.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 16:09 
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Have you considered paying more?


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 16:53 
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It's not a MaliA specific problem, it seems to be across manufacturing.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 17:00 
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I'm not being flippant, I'm genuinely asking: why aren't wages rising to fix this?


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 17:14 
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Agency workers, I guess.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 17:32 
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But why? If unemployment is as low as claimed, employers should be competing for skilled staff. Retention should go up, and wages should rise. But it isn't happening. Employers are happily paying the same wages they were 5 years ago. So they're obviously finding applicants. So if unemployment is so low where are all these people happy to work for a pittance coming from?

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 17:34 
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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 20:59 
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Cras wrote:
But why? If unemployment is as low as claimed, employers should be competing for skilled staff. Retention should go up, and wages should rise. But it isn't happening. Employers are happily paying the same wages they were 5 years ago. So they're obviously finding applicants. So if unemployment is so low where are all these people happy to work for a pittance coming from?


Removal of safety nets meaning poverty work is still preferable to no work?

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:41 
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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41923765

Quote:
EU sources close to the negotiations have told me they believe the UK has only two weeks left to make progress on the Brexit divorce issues.
...
Because that is when the 27 EU capitals start discussing the draft conclusions to the leaders' summit which takes place mid-December. They need those two weeks to more or less agree a position.

"And there's no way they'll agree to talk trade or transition with the UK in December, if the money issue hasn't been put to bed beforehand. Forget it," a high-level contact told me.

"Then the Brexit situation becomes dramatic."

Because if the December summit comes and goes, the earliest talks of a future EU-UK relationship could start would be at the next EU leaders summit in March 2018.

Far too late for businesses on both sides of the Channel which are desperate for some clarity.

March 2018 would also be one year after the UK triggered Article 50 - the formal process to leave the EU.

And it's six months from the time the EU wants to formally close Brexit negotiations in order to be able to vote on any agreement reached.


When you put it that way, that's a pretty tight timetable.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:46 
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I'm trying to imagine May successfully selling the country on an agreement to pay a €60bn divorce bill in the next two weeks. It's not going very well.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:50 
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Maybe she hammered something out with her boss at his banquet last night.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:51 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
I'm trying to imagine May successfully selling the country on an agreement to pay a €60bn divorce bill in the next two weeks. It's not going very well.


Expect a lot of obfuscation. Each minister in an area will stand up and say 'we're going to pay them XX for access to this service; YY to cover pensions; ZZ for Erasmus', and hope that nobody tots it up. Or say 'it's 15 billion a year for four years'.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:52 
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markg wrote:
Maybe she hammered something out with her boss at his banquet last night.


He needs a replacement for the EU cash for his country estates.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:54 
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Kern wrote:
Expect a lot of obfuscation. Each minister in an area will stand up and say 'we're going to pay them XX for access to this service; YY to cover pensions; ZZ for Erasmus', and hope that nobody tots it up. Or say 'it's 15 billion a year for four years'.

Of course, but how far can that take you? Given that Farage and Banks, at the very least, will add it up and then make a noise about it. And probably the Mail, Express, etc will too.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:59 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Of course, but how far can that take you? Given that Farage and Banks, at the very least, will add it up and then make a noise about it. And probably the Mail, Express, etc will too.


Yeah, she's toast either way.

The only way I can see her pull it off is to ask it to be 100 billion, make a big song and dance about how she's going to stand up to Brussels, won't pay a penny, Winston Churchill roaring at lions etc, to huge applause and great headlines, and then pay the 60 billion as a 'great victory'.

Also, the more I look at 'obfuscation' the more it looks misspelt or the more I think I've been mispronouncing it.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:02 
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Kern wrote:
Also, the more I look at 'obfuscation' the more it looks misspelt or the more I think I've been mispronouncing it.

Well, it's the correct spelling at least. Ob-foo-scaysh-un.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:02 
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£60 billion has been floating round as a figure for ages now, though.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:04 
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If I were Mrs May and I knew I was about to be defenestrated, I'd make a Prime Ministerial broadcast and tell the country that I'd be going to the House of Commons the next day and asking them for a full vote on whether to proceed with Brexit. I'd then list all the complications and costs, going into detail about the impact on people's lives and in particular in Mr Johnson's, Mr Gove's, and Disgraced Mr Fox's constituencies, and recommend that they vote for a pause.

When I then lose the vote in the Commons, I will say that I will go to the Palace to resign, and recommend Mr Johnson to the Queen as her next PM, before repeating all the bad stuff. I'd then drop by Mrs Windsor's, then head straight to Heathrow and Latin America.

And that's enough of my twisted fantasies.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:07 
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That would be lovely.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:18 
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Kern wrote:
If I were Mrs May and I knew I was about to be defenestrated, I'd make a Prime Ministerial broadcast and tell the country that I'd be going to the House of Commons the next day and asking them for a full vote on whether to proceed with Brexit. I'd then list all the complications and costs, going into detail about the impact on people's lives and in particular in Mr Johnson's, Mr Gove's, and Disgraced Mr Fox's constituencies, and recommend that they vote for a pause.

When I then lose the vote in the Commons, I will say that I will go to the Palace to resign, and recommend Mr Johnson to the Queen as her next PM, before repeating all the bad stuff. I'd then drop by Mrs Windsor's, then head straight to Heathrow and Latin America.

And that's enough of my twisted fantasies.


... Ban this sick filth. :D

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:20 
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So guys, where are we on the Hi-Lo DOOOooOOooOM-o-meter?
£60 billion seems to be the current favoured amount, but any advance on this? :D

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:21 
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Kern wrote:
If I were Mrs May and I knew I was about to be defenestrated, I'd make a Prime Ministerial broadcast and tell the country that I'd be going to the House of Commons the next day and asking them for a full vote on whether to proceed with Brexit. I'd then list all the complications and costs, going into detail about the impact on people's lives and in particular in Mr Johnson's, Mr Gove's, and Disgraced Mr Fox's constituencies, and recommend that they vote for a pause.

When I then lose the vote in the Commons, I will say that I will go to the Palace to resign, and recommend Mr Johnson to the Queen as her next PM, before repeating all the bad stuff. I'd then drop by Mrs Windsor's, then head straight to Heathrow and Latin America.

And that's enough of my twisted fantasies.

She could fly on Cameron's private jet!


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:26 
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Cavey wrote:
So guys, where are we on the Hi-Lo DOOOooOOooOM-o-meter?
£60 billion seems to be the current favoured amount, but any advance on this? :D


I think we should gamble it all on what's inside the Mystery Box!


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:26 
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Cavey wrote:
So guys, where are we on the Hi-Lo DOOOooOOooOM-o-meter?
£60 billion seems to be the current favoured amount, but any advance on this? :D


A 'grand compromise' of 50 billion euros, plus on-going service charges of 20 billion a year. And a £5 convenience fee.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:27 
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Cavey wrote:
So guys, where are we on the Hi-Lo DOOOooOOooOM-o-meter?
£60 billion seems to be the current favoured amount, but any advance on this? :D


I'm more concerned as to whether May agrees to pay it in time. It'll be a tough sell to the public

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:29 
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Squirt wrote:
Cavey wrote:
So guys, where are we on the Hi-Lo DOOOooOOooOM-o-meter?
£60 billion seems to be the current favoured amount, but any advance on this? :D


I think we should gamble it all on what's inside the Mystery Box!


:D

/drum roll..............................................................................................


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:30 
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Kern wrote:
Cavey wrote:
So guys, where are we on the Hi-Lo DOOOooOOooOM-o-meter?
£60 billion seems to be the current favoured amount, but any advance on this? :D


A 'grand compromise' of 50 billion euros, plus on-going service charges of 20 billion a year. And a £5 convenience fee.


:D

That's good! 10 billion less, right? Right?

/click

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:32 
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Cras wrote:
Cavey wrote:
So guys, where are we on the Hi-Lo DOOOooOOooOM-o-meter?
£60 billion seems to be the current favoured amount, but any advance on this? :D


I'm more concerned as to whether May agrees to pay it in time. It'll be a tough sell to the public


If it's anything like £60 billion I'd say it's an *impossible* sell, and therefore Hard Brexit looms. Everybody loses, but especially us.
It won't happen, though, because the negotiations will be a piece of piss, Ze Germans want to sell us Mercedes cars and they're all "men of business" in the EU. Honest guv. :facepalm:

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:32 
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Cras wrote:
Cavey wrote:
So guys, where are we on the Hi-Lo DOOOooOOooOM-o-meter?
£60 billion seems to be the current favoured amount, but any advance on this? :D


I'm more concerned as to whether May agrees to pay it in time. It'll be a tough sell to the public


Stick it on a bus. "£60 billion and then you can all shut the fuck up"

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:34 
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"£60 billion, but who wants to be the richest Twat in the graveyard anyway?"

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:34 
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'Fuck it, we're paying in pennies'


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:36 
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Scottish pennies.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:42 
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For Scotch Pies?

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:44 
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Could we sell them Wales and call it quits?

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:55 
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Cavey wrote:
If it's anything like £60 billion I'd say it's an *impossible* sell, and therefore Hard Brexit looms.

I'm not sure that £60 billion is much different to £6 billion or £100 billion in the minds of most people. It's a bit like once you start talking about huge distances between things in space, it's hard to keep any perspective.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:56 
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60 Billion, but we stretch out payment for years by continuously forgetting to sign the cheque, accidentally writing in 60 million, claiming that the only guy who knows the online banking password is on holiday, and straight out just refusing to answer the phone.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 13:54 
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http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/11/0 ... th-the-eu/

Comparing the Brexit negotiations with the 1960s negotiations for Britain to join the EEC. The parallels are quite striking.

Quote:
Instead, getting out of the EU seems likely to require the same readiness to give ground on the part of the departing country as most countries have had to display when seeking to join the EC/EU. If the UK wants a deal, it is likely to be bought through British concessions and the abandonment of some of its initial negotiating aims, rather than large-scale giveaways by the EU27. And it is here that one final parallel with the 1961-3 negotiations becomes worrying. Because just as Macmillan’s ability to make the concessions needed to reach a breakthrough in Brussels was all but destroyed by growing cabinet splits on Europe, dwindling government popularity (1962 was the year of the famous Orpington by-election) and by a Labour opposition increasingly willing to seek party-political advantage through opportunism over the European issue, so too Theresa May’s scope for flexibility seems ever more circumscribed.

The present situation, though, is much more uncomfortable and potentially painful than that of 1963. The implications of failure are far greater. Britain’s inability to join the EEC in 1963 was a hammer blow to Macmillan’s government and a disappointment to many on both sides of the Channel. But ultimately it meant no more than a temporary prolongation of the status quo, and the postponement rather than the end of the UK’s European ambitions. Failure now would be much more serious, confronting the country with all the economic, legal and political consequences of a cliff-edge Brexit. The British government urgently needs to stop repeating the mistakes of its predecessor over half a century ago. A breakthrough in Brussels is a national necessity – even if achieving it requires awkward and painful climbdowns.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 14:35 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/11/09/swallow-the-lot-and-swallow-it-now-britain-is-and-was-deluded-about-its-negotiating-power-with-the-eu/

Comparing the Brexit negotiations with the 1960s negotiations for Britain to join the EEC. The parallels are quite striking.


Thanks for that Doc. Interesting refresher. I recommend you try Farrell & Goldsmith's 'How to lose a referendum' (Biteback, 2017) for more 'how the hell did we get here' history.

Quote:
. Because just as Macmillan’s ability to make the concessions needed to reach a breakthrough in Brussels was all but destroyed by growing cabinet splits on Europe, dwindling government popularity (1962 was the year of the famous Orpington by-election) and by a Labour opposition increasingly willing to seek party-political advantage through opportunism over the European issue, so too Theresa May’s scope for flexibility seems ever more circumscribed.


Seems very similar to John Major's Eurotroubles in the 1990s. It's almost as if we can only see the EU through a Westminster party-politics lens, rather than part of a project we could be engaging with and influencing.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 8:35 
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So the only way to appease the leave camp in the Tory Party is to write into the withdrawal bill something which has to happen by law anyway. Pathetic.

Quote:
She said that "11pm GMT on 29 March 2019" is "there in black and white" in an amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill

BBC.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 9:49 
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Kern wrote:
So the only way to appease the leave camp in the Tory Party is to write into the withdrawal bill something which has to happen by law anyway. Pathetic.

Quote:
She said that "11pm GMT on 29 March 2019" is "there in black and white" in an amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill

BBC.


It is, isn't it?

As much as I dislike to pour scorn on the wretched, this is somewhat deserved.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:00 
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Joined: 12th Apr, 2008
Posts: 17757
Location: Oxford
MaliA wrote:
As much as I dislike to pour scorn on the wretched, this is somewhat deserved.


Different standards apply to the powerful. Being Prime Minister must be a horrible, lonely, and complicated job that's only bound to end in failure and disappointment, and she's at the helm during particularly turbulent seas. But being power means we can, nay must, criticise and oppose where necessary (we can also cheer if they do something right, and probably should). Unfortunately, the storms have brought to forefront her weakness, although I can't think of anyone in the senior ranks of the Tories who could do any better. Perhaps Philip Hammond, but only since he always came across as quiet and hard-working in defence and I've not heard much from him in recent times.

Here endeth the lesson. We now turn to hymn 342.


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