Be Excellent To Each Other

That's an oversight. No, the Sire is supposed to be unmatched in straight combat. The Vig gets killed if he tries to off the Sire.

Ah, OK.

Curio: the relative of your relative's former cult leader, surely? You make me suspicious. *narrows eyes; fingers stake in pocket; checks crucifix round neck*

"Until the odds were more in his favour" and "for the whole game" are two different things.


Personally, I would have. Two more deaths tonight.



It's not about being "safe", it's about managing risk. If he'd bitten last night and gone back today, he'd have a 66% chance of getting killed, only surviving if there were no VHs at all. If he'd had the childe bite a decoy as well, he'd have a 42% chance of getting killed, surviving if there were no VH, if the VH had picked the wrong man to protect or if both VHs picked the wrong man.

If a VH goes down and he sends out a decoy bite, his odds of getting killed when he goes back the following night plummet to 25%. If you also consider that every time he bites he's taking a chance of getting tailed and revealed, and the fact that he's got next to no chance of being nightkilled and only slightly more chance of being lynched, why wouldn't he wait and see how things play out for a bit?



If in a couple of days a third of the town's gone down with no evidence of roleblocking, no VH bodies showing up, and nobody roleclaiming you have to start figuring there's a chance there's not one. Like I said, you're not dealing in certainties, you're dealing in odds. But when you're nearly invulnerable from every threat in the game, what's the point of taking a flat coinflip on day 1 on whether you live or die?



There are on average 1.66 roles who can tail in the game. With 21 players in the game, there was an 8% chance of the Sire getting tailed and being revealed as vamp.

There are an average of 2.5 "power townie" roles. With 21 players in the game, there was a 12% chance of the Sire hitting one of them.

Risk your Unlife for an extra 4% chance of a good result?

FTFY

Fair point. I think the thrust of the argument still stands, though.

Thrust..like with a stake?

You have to admit, if I'm the Sire this is an admirably elaborate bluff.

Proof!

We're inching towards nolynch:

Vote Update

curiosity: 2 votes (mr dave, the rev owen)
joans: 2 votes (dimrill, zardoz)
nolynch: 10 votes (bluecup, craster, curiosity, dudley, grim..., kevr, lacesensor, mr russ, rodafowa, runcle)

Not voted: joans, kalmar, mr chris, myoptika, vegetables

With 19 players alive, 10 votes are required for a lynch and 14 votes for there to be no lynch.

Doesn't make much difference, but we might end the day a little earlier.

[vote:nolynch]

If anyone has anything to say, now's the time.

Not sure where your 1.66 is coming from. Are you including the vig in that? THE VIG'S ABILITY WILL NOT TELL US IF THE PERSON HE TAILS IS A VAMP. Just whether it's someone who tries to use a night action.

Most of the village's roles appear to be rubbish, then.

::pats Mr Pointy::

When am I going to get a chance to use you, little friend?

Potentially two Priests who can discover anyone's role and may know the identities of, and be known to, potentially two Van Helsings?

Yes, Dudley's already made that point. The same thing applies to the Van Helsings. As I said, I don't think it changes the general argument that doing nothing was a more-than-decent option for the Sire last night.

There's not enough for the village to go after at the start.

In the other games nearly a third of the village would be mafia/cult/SK.
In this one, it was a seventh (at most, it could've been 2 in 21 for all we knew).

I think we're doing the right thing in waiting, but for how much longer?

There's that bloody screeching monkey again. Sometimes the sounds it makes almost seem like they're words. It looks almost human, too.

Yes we can see the procedure you went through?

* Closes shop for the night *

No death parties again.... *sigh*

OK, no it doesn't. But, again, I don't think it affects the general gist of what I'm saying.

Point is, we don't know what you're saying, because you have crazy random unexplained maths.

I'll show my working if you're really bored. But all I was saying there was a counter to Joans saying that the odds were against something going wrong for the Sire when trying to bite someone.

The odds were against it... just not strongly enough against it to make it something you should certainly do.

No offence, but this is a bit boring.

[vote:nolynch]

Agreed. Not enough lynching.

Agreed. Not enough lynching.

Well it's one way of passing the last 25 minutes.

I'd help but I am already in my pyjamas.

I guess we'll find out soon (or maybe have a better idea)

If the Childe kills a protected role, then it could still be luck, or it could be because the Sire tried to bite that person last night and knows they have a role.
If the Sire did get a bite in, and then goes for a second bite tonight because that person hasn't spoken up. I wonder how suspicious the Sire will be that he's got the Serial Killer in his midst?

Oooh, that would indeed be the one person who wouldn't want to speak up.

Exactamundo.

It's been suggested before, but I never thought about it from the other perspective. We're wondering why nobody has spoken up and thought it could possibly be the SK because he'd want to join the Vampires and get a bit of protection, but if the Sire did bite someone last night, he must be trying to work out why they haven't spoken up as much as the rest of us are.

Can we please stake someone tomorrow? Please?

Do you want me to beg?

::gets down on knees in front of bemused townspeople::

Okay, I beg you! Can we please stake someone! Soon!

We need information more than anything else. Right now we're completely in the dark. And so, yes, a staking would be, quite literally, a stab in the dark. But I think it would be worth it. Um, unless we stabbed a priest or Van Halen. That wouldn't be good at all.

But if we don't stake, what are we going to do? Just talk in circles every day until the time runs out?

Hopefully things will happen overnight that might give us something to go on.

We're speculating rather wildly at this point. We could possibly have:

A vamp colony who will gain a new member.
A vamp colony who will gain a new member who is the SK.
A vamp colony who didn't bite.
A vamp colony who bit someone that can't be turned.
A vamp colony with a Sire who was roleblocked.

We have no way of knowing which of the above is true, without anyone coming forward.

[Vote:The Rev Owen]

Not me! Duh!

Read the first couple of pages again (and the rules) and tell me if I've got this wrong.

There are currently 2 roleblockers in the game, the Childe and the Costumed Vigilante.
The Childe killed (and wouldn't roleblock the Sire anyway).
Mr Russ claimed to have been tailed by the Vigilante before Dr Gaywood pointed out that anyone that was tailed would see his yellow lycra and thus know that they'd been tailed. Therefore Mr Russ wasn't lying about being tailed unless he's psychic.
So either Mr Russ is the Sire or the Sire wasn't roleblocked.

Correct.

That's possibly a stretch. not sure.

Arf arf.

Timeout!

As yesterday, you all slowly start to break away from the group and go home to rest. There is even less consensus this time, and people seem exhausted from the finger pointing and suspicions. One by one, you hurry home, slamming and locking every door and window in the house. How many will survive the night?

Final Vote Update

curiosity: 2 votes (mr dave, the rev owen)
joans: 2 votes (dimrill, zardoz)
the rev owen: 1 vote (dudley)
nolynch: 11 votes (bluecup, craster, curiosity, grim..., joans, kevr, lacesensor, mr russ, myoptika, rodafowa, runcle)

Not voted: kalmar, mr chris, vegetables

With 19 players alive, 10 votes are required for a lynch and 14 votes for there to be no lynch.

Night actions via PM please. Deadline for night actions is 9AM tomorrow morning.

Don't wanna.