Be Excellent To Each Other

And, you know, party on. Dude.

All times are UTC [ DST ]




Reply to topic  [ 1158 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ... 24  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 19:07 
User avatar

Joined: 23rd Nov, 2008
Posts: 9521
Location: The Golden Country
Dunno if this is still the "gambling thread" here. Is it? Couldn't seem to find that other "free money"/Sky one, but no matter. Probably it's down to me being a clueless old tosspot, or something.

Anyway, thought I'd give a few people a chortle. You know my "reformed gambler/never gamble" stance, right? Well, unsurprisingly (and even after all these years), I went onto Sky Vegas and had a freeplay pop at some random slots, and tried out my "system" on low stakes roulette, where you can bet as little as 1p per spin.

You know "the system", right? Basically, keep betting on black or red, or even or odd, or low or high (basically evens odds of course). Each time you lose a spin, double your bet. Providing your cash roll is big enough and your initial bet small enough, the theory goes that the odds are massively against your losing; you should (slowly) build up a nice little profit...

So what did I do? Yup, I "tried the system out" on freeplay, and my word it seemed to work swimmingly. In no time at all, despite only betting 25p/spin, I was sitting on a nice little wad of virtual cash. Those "Totally Free £10!!11" and "We'll match your deposit!!1" [except they don't of course, nothing like it in fact, see below], seemed mighty tempting. I mean, I've been off the fruits for well over a decade and it sure would be nice to bag a cheeky £50 and have some fun doing it, right chums?

So, naturally, being an arsehole who'd entirely forgotten what it was even like to gamble, or the risks, I signed up and duly deposited £100 for a nice, fat stash, and collected my free tenner as well, making £110. Things went swimmingly; there I was betting 25p just like before, and soon had a fiver in profit (plus the free tenner), just by dicking about for 20 mins or so. I even went super-cautious and dropped the bet to 10p - and then 5p (yes that's right, five fucking pence), just to be super super super safe.

So what happened? Having alternated between red/black (noticing that the virtual wheel seemed to kick up loads of blacks when betting red, but with my tiny bets it didn't matter as I was 'guaranteed' one red in the running order, and that's all I needed, I switched to even/odd (same deal, loads of odd numbers when betting even, but always an occasional even to ensure I kept on winning, albeit tiny amounts). I then switched to low(<18)/high(>18), and guess what? ELEVEN losing spins on the fucking trot, meaning by 5p bet had doubled up to fifty fucking quid and my stash was burned. The very next spin I bet whatever little was left on low, and it still fucking lost, meaning twelve losing spins on the trot.

I mean seriously, who's ever heard of 12 reds or blacks in a row on a real roulette wheel? Yes I know it can happen, blah blah fucking blah, but the odds are tiny - very approximately 4000:1. One hundred and twenty quid down the shitter for a "5 pence jackpot"...

In an enraged state, I then deposited another £100 and tried my "system" except using fully £5 starting bet. I managed to pot about £30 profit before going on a massive losing run of spins again (though not as many, obviously, since my bankroll vs. stake would not allow that), and promptly got down to my last £25.

I bet all of this on black, it came in for £50. Rebet the lot on black again, £100. Rebet the lot on black again, £200. Cold sweat and cash out, thank you very much, goodnight Irene. So much for my "system"...


Epilogue: My "bonus" for having deposited - and fully played - all £200?
£2. Which I lost, on Lo Stakes Roulette (since I refuse to play fucking fruities for real).

There's no fool like an old fool; I consider myself very fortunate to still have my shirt. That'll do me for the next 12 years or so methinks.

_________________
Beware of gavia articulata oculos...

Dr Lave wrote:
Of course, he's normally wrong but interestingly wrong :p


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 19:08 
User avatar
Sleepyhead

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 27343
Location: Kidbrooke
That is known as the Martingale System and is well known as a bad gambling system. It will, over time, always lose to a house edge, with the possibility of catastrophic loss against a small gain.

_________________
We are young despite the years
We are concern
We are hope, despite the times


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 19:11 
User avatar

Joined: 23rd Nov, 2008
Posts: 9521
Location: The Golden Country
Curiosity wrote:
That is known as the Martingdale System and js well known as the worst gambling system. It will, over time, always lose.


Fair enough Curio, sure you're right - but 12 high numbers >18 in a row (equivalent to 12 reds in a row, or 12 blacks), given the tiny number of spins?

_________________
Beware of gavia articulata oculos...

Dr Lave wrote:
Of course, he's normally wrong but interestingly wrong :p


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 19:12 
User avatar
Sleepyhead

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 27343
Location: Kidbrooke
Cavey wrote:
Curiosity wrote:
That is known as the Martingdale System and js well known as the worst gambling system. It will, over time, always lose.


Fair enough Curio, sure you're right - but 12 high numbers >18 in a row (equivalent to 12 reds in a row, or 12 blacks), given the tiny number of spins?


It happens more than you would think. I saw a wheel in Vegas hit black around twenty five times in a row. It was bankrupting people who walked in and thought, "Oh, it must pay out now!"

_________________
We are young despite the years
We are concern
We are hope, despite the times


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 19:26 
User avatar
Hello Hello Hello

Joined: 11th May, 2008
Posts: 13381
All Martingale does is massively increase the variance (peaks and troughs) of the game, it doesn't change the RTP (percentage returned to player) at all. (On European Roulette this is 97.3%, with the double 00 American variant it's 94.74%, always play European roulette where you have a choice!)

Some online casinos prohibit Martingale because they're (a) Clueless and incompetent or (b) Don't like the way it can skew variance. (For example Martingale can work well when on bonus play to increase a player's balance and then grind out on slots. This is the same reason a lot of online casinos limit bet size on slots when a bonus is active, to prevent a few insane spins which, should they hit anything, damn near guarantee a cash out for the player if they go into 'grind' mode.)

The problem with Martingale for the player is that whilst you will seem to win a modest sum an amazing amount of time, when you lose with it, you lose big, because you've deliberately jacked the variance of the game to 'win a bit most of the time, but lose massive a very small amount of the time' mode.

Over at the Casinomeister forums a casino software developer said he would happily welcome Martingale players from all over the world, because the casino's house edge on the game remains exactly the same, however it's played.

TBH Cavey it sounds like you had a lucky escape hitting the big loss fairly early on, as getting confident and then upping your bets with Martingale and then hitting the unlucky patch can be ruinous.

And in future, run this sort of stuff by us first eh? :D


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 20:02 
User avatar

Joined: 23rd Nov, 2008
Posts: 9521
Location: The Golden Country
Yeah, I get it mate, I'm not totally daft. In my profession I use maths and everything likes. ;)

My point is (other than to give people a laugh at my expense - deservedly), you can't get playing it much safer than a 5p starting stake on a roulette table, thereby budgeting for up to 12 losing ~50/50 spins on the bounce. As I've said, the fact remains that the chances of something like this happening on a physical roulette table is (at least) 4000:1 (and actually more like 1:5690 when the zero is accounted for also, which did not come up in the running order btw).

I mean really, 1:5690? You pick a number between 1 and 6000, and I've got to guess it correctly? Shit, we'd be playing that game for a month and I wouldn't get it. It's about the same odds as correctly picking one card correctly from a deck of 52, then doing it AGAIN, and THEN flipping heads on a coin. Yeah, it's possible, but you really ain't gonna do it. Bear in mind, also, as I've said, that this happened within 20 mins or so, not months and months of play, banking small (or any) wins.

But this ain't a real, physical roulette wheel though, is it - it's software. Same as fruit machines are not weights, measures and reels anymore; they're software too.

I really don't need to "run anything past" you, or anyone old chap. In the highly unlikely event that I ever have a flutter on roulette (as I very occasionally have done), it'll be on a real, physical wheel thanks.

_________________
Beware of gavia articulata oculos...

Dr Lave wrote:
Of course, he's normally wrong but interestingly wrong :p


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 20:08 
User avatar
Sleepyhead

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 27343
Location: Kidbrooke
Yeah, but wander through casinos often enough and you'll see those big streaks a lot.

Also, you can't put 0 in your side of the stats. 0 is, for these purposes, over 18*





* Maybe that's where Rolf got confused

_________________
We are young despite the years
We are concern
We are hope, despite the times


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 20:11 
User avatar

Joined: 23rd Nov, 2008
Posts: 9521
Location: The Golden Country
Curiosity wrote:
Yeah, but wander through casinos often enough and you'll see those big streaks a lot.

Also, you can't put 0 in your side of the stats. 0 is, for these purposes, over 18*





* Maybe that's where Rolf got confused


I can't (and won't) argue with what you've seen with your own eyes, Curio. :)

I do take issue with not counting zero though, since although not a win it's still a different outcome to all 12 consecutive numbers being high (and non zero) which is what happened - same as if it'd been 12 reds or 12 blacks. As far as I'm concerned, this is valid mathematically speaking.

_________________
Beware of gavia articulata oculos...

Dr Lave wrote:
Of course, he's normally wrong but interestingly wrong :p


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 20:18 
User avatar
Sleepyhead

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 27343
Location: Kidbrooke
It's mathematically valid for the numbers that you saw; it's also irrelevant for the odds of you winning. The same as not counting, say, 28 in your odds, just because it wasn't hit.

Like if you have a 20 sided die and win on anything below 11. If it rolls 20 twice in a row you've seen a 1 in 400 event, but the chance of you losing both was still 1 in 4.

_________________
We are young despite the years
We are concern
We are hope, despite the times


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 20:21 
User avatar

Joined: 23rd Nov, 2008
Posts: 9521
Location: The Golden Country
Curiosity wrote:
It's mathematically valid for the numbers that you saw


Indeed, which is all I'm claiming mate and is, in fact, my entire point.
(Precisely the same odds as getting 12 reds or 12 blacks on the trot as well, as you of course appreciate).

_________________
Beware of gavia articulata oculos...

Dr Lave wrote:
Of course, he's normally wrong but interestingly wrong :p


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 20:29 
User avatar
Sleepyhead

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 27343
Location: Kidbrooke
Cavey wrote:
Curiosity wrote:
It's mathematically valid for the numbers that you saw


Indeed, which is all I'm claiming mate and is, in fact, my entire point.
(Precisely the same odds as getting 12 reds or 12 blacks on the trot as well, as you of course appreciate).


Yes, but it's not the same as the odds of you losing.

_________________
We are young despite the years
We are concern
We are hope, despite the times


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 20:37 
User avatar

Joined: 23rd Nov, 2008
Posts: 9521
Location: The Golden Country
Yes, that's right. :)

_________________
Beware of gavia articulata oculos...

Dr Lave wrote:
Of course, he's normally wrong but interestingly wrong :p


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 20:52 
User avatar
Hello Hello Hello

Joined: 11th May, 2008
Posts: 13381
Cavey wrote:
Yeah, I get it mate, I'm not totally daft. In my profession I use maths and everything likes. ;)

My point is (other than to give people a laugh at my expense - deservedly), you can't get playing it much safer than a 5p starting stake on a roulette table, thereby budgeting for up to 12 losing ~50/50 spins on the bounce. As I've said, the fact remains that the chances of something like this happening on a physical roulette table is (at least) 4000:1 (and actually more like 1:5690 when the zero is accounted for also, which did not come up in the running order btw).

I mean really, 1:5690? You pick a number between 1 and 6000, and I've got to guess it correctly? Shit, we'd be playing that game for a month and I wouldn't get it. It's about the same odds as correctly picking one card correctly from a deck of 52, then doing it AGAIN, and THEN flipping heads on a coin. Yeah, it's possible, but you really ain't gonna do it. Bear in mind, also, as I've said, that this happened within 20 mins or so, not months and months of play, banking small (or any) wins.

But this ain't a real, physical roulette wheel though, is it - it's software. Same as fruit machines are not weights, measures and reels anymore; they're software too.

I really don't need to "run anything past" you, or anyone old chap. In the highly unlikely event that I ever have a flutter on roulette (as I very occasionally have done), it'll be on a real, physical wheel thanks.


They're not 50/50 spins though, as the 0 is a loss either way, which is where the house edge comes from and which is what makes your numbers wrong.

1/5690 isn't that long odds, random numbers do weird things all the time.

There's no difference between a real physical wheel and a software reel run by a reputable casino using a reputable software provider - the odds are identical in all scenarios.

If you're that good at maths you should know full well that Martingale is a thoroughly awful roulette 'system' and not worth entertaining with any real cash, and makes no difference to the RTP whatsoever :p


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 21:07 
User avatar

Joined: 23rd Nov, 2008
Posts: 9521
Location: The Golden Country
Hearthly wrote:
They're not 50/50 spins though,


Indeed, hence the use of "~"

Quote:
as the 0 is a loss either way,


Yeah, so what? No-one is talking about probability of LOSS, merely the probability of WHAT HAPPENED (see multiple posts above).

It's easier to picture 12 consecutive reds or blacks, than 12 consecutive numbers above 18, which is why I drew the analogy, but they're all mathematically the same. Again as stated repeatedly, yet I still need to clear this up, apparently...

Quote:
which is where the house edge comes from and which is what makes your numbers wrong.


I mean seriously, NO SHIT SHERLOCK the zero is where the house edge comes in? Fuck me, do you take me for a flipping idiot? Fucks sake man!

Oh, and my numbers are not "wrong", they are right (ironically enough, despite your lecturing me here in quite the most patronising manner imaginable). NO-ONE IS TALKING ABOUT ODDS OF WINNING, ODDS OF LOSING OR RTP. JUST THE ODDS OF GETTING 12 REDS/BLACKS ON THE TROT. OK?

Quote:
1/5690 isn't that long odds, random numbers do weird things all the time.


:roll:
Fuck me.

Quote:
There's no difference between a real physical wheel and a software reel run by a reputable casino using a reputable software provider - the odds are identical in all scenarios.


No shit!

Quote:
If you're that good at maths you should know full well that Martingale is a thoroughly awful roulette 'system' and not worth entertaining with any real cash, and makes no difference to the RTP whatsoever :p


No-one said it made any difference to RTP. I didn't even say it was a good system at all, in fact the whole point of the OP was to take the piss out of myself and (hopefully) give people a laugh. Okay? 'Kay.

_________________
Beware of gavia articulata oculos...

Dr Lave wrote:
Of course, he's normally wrong but interestingly wrong :p


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 21:11 
User avatar
Sleepyhead

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 27343
Location: Kidbrooke
:DD

_________________
We are young despite the years
We are concern
We are hope, despite the times


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 21:34 
User avatar
EvilTrousers

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 3073
Cavey, Cavey, Cavey. I tried one of Hearthly's systems.

Basically the technique is (and you have to follow this carefully) spunk all your money in a fruit machine then smash your car to fuck with a rock.

Guaranteed winnings*

Seriously though there is a really good bit in Bad Science about probability which explains how the run you had can happen and frequently does even though it seems improbable.

* not an actual guarantee, the value of your car may fall after using this technique.

_________________
Everyone but Zardoz is better than me at videogames.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 21:35 
User avatar
Hello Hello Hello

Joined: 11th May, 2008
Posts: 13381
Cavey wrote:
No-one said it made any difference to RTP. I didn't even say it was a good system at all, in fact the whole point of the OP was to take the piss out of myself and (hopefully) give people a laugh. Okay? 'Kay.


Well it read to me like you were questioning the chances of what happened to you actually happening and/or implying there was a difference between a physical wheel and a properly simulated software wheel, and 4000/1 is not 'tiny odds'.

If you've had a lapse after 12 years and are a bit cross then fair enough, but there's no need to get all hostile about it.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 21:38 
User avatar
Hello Hello Hello

Joined: 11th May, 2008
Posts: 13381
Trousers wrote:
Cavey, Cavey, Cavey. I tried one of Hearthly's systems.

Basically the technique is (and you have to follow this carefully) spunk all your money in a fruit machine then smash your car to fuck with a rock.

Guaranteed winnings*

Seriously though there is a really good bit in Bad Science about probability which explains how the run you had can happen and frequently does even though it seems improbable.

* not an actual guarantee, the value of your car may fall after using this technique.


>:(

Attachment:
RIMG0002.JPG

Attachment:
RIMG0004.JPG

Attachment:
RIMG0006.JPG


You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 21:57 
User avatar
Sleepyhead

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 27343
Location: Kidbrooke
Bloody hell.

_________________
We are young despite the years
We are concern
We are hope, despite the times


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 22:06 
User avatar
Hello Hello Hello

Joined: 11th May, 2008
Posts: 13381
Curiosity wrote:
Bloody hell.


They were not the best of times.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 22:23 
Filthy Junkie Bitch

Joined: 17th Dec, 2008
Posts: 8293
Hearthly wrote:
Curiosity wrote:
Bloody hell.


They were not the best of times.

You shouldn't have had such a cavalier attitude.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 22:35 
SupaMod
User avatar
Commander-in-Cheese

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 49232
The one thing everyone always forgets when looking at roulette is that the odd of RRRRRR are identical to the odds of RRBRBB. Except that on the first one the brain is seeing a pattern that actually isn't there.

_________________
GoddessJasmine wrote:
Drunk, pulled Craster's pork, waiting for brdyime story,reading nuts. Xz


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 23:29 
User avatar
Paws for thought

Joined: 27th Mar, 2008
Posts: 17154
Location: Just Outside That London, England, Europe
Ok...So point 1 .

Trousers may have made me laugh too much.

Point 2.

I believe the point is that you eill break even guven deep enough pockets. Note : break even. Winnings are going to be in thr order of pennies if you get it right. Because the losses double but the winnings don't.

Which is ok by me as a non gambler, but not quite what you're after.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:17 
Excellent Member

Joined: 5th Dec, 2010
Posts: 3353
Its all pure chance

I was at a casino Saturday night, all week I had been telling myself black 10 was the bet

So I played some slots and won some money then blew it again before getting to the roulette table

First bet £5 on 10 £5 on black- Black number comes in so £10 back

2nd bet £5 on 10 £5 on black- Black number 10 comes in £180 back!

Blew it all (some of it on drinks) and left more or less even.

That is a huge result for me in a casino, last time with my brother is was £2,000 down


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:08 
User avatar

Joined: 23rd Nov, 2008
Posts: 9521
Location: The Golden Country
Trousers wrote:
Cavey, Cavey, Cavey. I tried one of Hearthly's systems.

Basically the technique is (and you have to follow this carefully) spunk all your money in a fruit machine then smash your car to fuck with a rock.

Guaranteed winnings*

* not an actual guarantee, the value of your car may fall after using this technique.


:DD

Ah, your mistake though, chap, was not to "run through" said proposed spunking of all your cash (and subsequent self-harming to vehicle) by someone here first. :D

Quote:
Seriously though there is a really good bit in Bad Science about probability which explains how the run you had can happen and frequently does even though it seems improbable.


No, not really. If something has odds of 1:5700 against of occurring, it is, by definition, vastly improbable. The end, really.

Craster's point about turning this on its head by saying RRBRBBBRBRRB or whatever has precisely the same odds as occurring as RRRRRRRRRRRR or BBBBBBBBBBBB is correct but entirely moot. The point here, of course, is that successfully predicting RRBRBBBRBRRB for 12 consecutive spins beforehand (same as BBBBBBBBBBBB) is just as vastly improbable and would be the same 1:5700 against, or whatever - but all of one colour is easier to visualise.

_________________
Beware of gavia articulata oculos...

Dr Lave wrote:
Of course, he's normally wrong but interestingly wrong :p


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:21 
User avatar

Joined: 23rd Nov, 2008
Posts: 9521
Location: The Golden Country
Hearthly wrote:
Well it read to me like you were questioning the chances of what happened to you actually happening and/or implying there was a difference between a physical wheel and a properly simulated software wheel, and 4000/1 is not 'tiny odds'.


Sigh. Yes, I was questioning the chances of what happened to me actually happening and I know that a properly simulated roulette wheel would behave the same as a physical wheel (I'm over 12).

You, however, still don't seem to appreciate how improbable 4000/1 is, though.

Quote:
If you've had a lapse after 12 years and are a bit cross then fair enough, but there's no need to get all hostile about it.


I wasn't being hostile, I was merely grossly exasperated and my intelligence insulted. I was over it, ooh, approx. 3.8 seconds after my post?

Cripes man, after 12 years I think you should know me well enough by now. It was merely the slightest irritation and absolutely nothing to be concerned about at all.

_________________
Beware of gavia articulata oculos...

Dr Lave wrote:
Of course, he's normally wrong but interestingly wrong :p


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:32 
SupaMod
User avatar
Commander-in-Cheese

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 49232
Cavey wrote:
Craster's point about turning this on its head by saying RRBRBBBRBRRB or whatever has precisely the same odds as occurring as RRRRRRRRRRRR or BBBBBBBBBBBB is correct but entirely moot. The point here, of course, is that successfully predicting RRBRBBBRBRRB for 12 consecutive spins beforehand (same as BBBBBBBBBBBB) is just as vastly improbable and would be the same 1:5700 against, or whatever - but all of one colour is easier to visualise.


But my point is that when you see a string of all one colour, it's natural to think 'it's well unlikely that the next one will also be black!' Which is of course not true.

_________________
GoddessJasmine wrote:
Drunk, pulled Craster's pork, waiting for brdyime story,reading nuts. Xz


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:39 
User avatar

Joined: 23rd Nov, 2008
Posts: 9521
Location: The Golden Country
Cras wrote:
Cavey wrote:
Craster's point about turning this on its head by saying RRBRBBBRBRRB or whatever has precisely the same odds as occurring as RRRRRRRRRRRR or BBBBBBBBBBBB is correct but entirely moot. The point here, of course, is that successfully predicting RRBRBBBRBRRB for 12 consecutive spins beforehand (same as BBBBBBBBBBBB) is just as vastly improbable and would be the same 1:5700 against, or whatever - but all of one colour is easier to visualise.


But my point is that when you see a string of all one colour, it's natural to think 'it's well unlikely that the next one will also be black!' Which is of course not true.


Oh absolutely, agreed of course. :)

Although, in the case of a virtual software table, if you've bet on 11 losing reds and it potentially knows exactly your betting history and RTP etc., assuming that it's entirely 'fair'.

From my perspective here, and whichever way you look at it, what happened to me was a (seemingly) improbable event to put it mildly. Note though that I don't blame anyone besides myself in this (stupid old twat; should know better etc.) and consider myself most fortunate to have come out of it unscathed, but still. It's certainly put me off again though; hated that feeling when I'd spunked £175 in the space of a few minutes.

_________________
Beware of gavia articulata oculos...

Dr Lave wrote:
Of course, he's normally wrong but interestingly wrong :p


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:26 
User avatar
EvilTrousers

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 3073
How about BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB?

Quote:
The most famous example of the gambler’s fallacy occurred in a game of roulette at the Monte Carlo Casino on August 18, 1913,[5] when the ball fell in black 26 times in a row. This was an extremely uncommon occurrence, although no more nor less common than any of the other 67,108,863 sequences of 26 red or black. Gamblers lost millions of francs betting against black, reasoning incorrectly that the streak was causing an "imbalance" in the randomness of the wheel, and that it had to be followed by a long streak of red.[1]

_________________
Everyone but Zardoz is better than me at videogames.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:44 
User avatar

Joined: 23rd Nov, 2008
Posts: 9521
Location: The Golden Country
Trousers wrote:
How about BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB?

Quote:
The most famous example of the gambler’s fallacy occurred in a game of roulette at the Monte Carlo Casino on August 18, 1913,[5] when the ball fell in black 26 times in a row. This was an extremely uncommon occurrence, although no more nor less common than any of the other 67,108,863 sequences of 26 red or black. Gamblers lost millions of francs betting against black, reasoning incorrectly that the streak was causing an "imbalance" in the randomness of the wheel, and that it had to be followed by a long streak of red.[1]


Ouch! Nasty if you were betting/doubling up on red from the start of that little sequence.

Like I've said though from the start, I realise what happened to me is entirely possible, merely very, very unlikely within the comparatively tiny number of spins played. Odds of 5700:1 (per spin or sequence of losing spins) are very, very long odds indeed, contrary to what has been suggested, or at least alluded to here. To my mind there are but two possibilities: either I was unlucky (very unlucky), which is entirely possible of course - or the game wasn't entirely random at all times.

Lets put this into some context. Now, we're going to look at the mean expected profit, at 10p per spin (probably the average seed stake amount I went for, ranging from 5p to 25p in actual fact), before a losing sequence of 12 consecutive spins could reasonably be anticipated, according to simple laws of probability.

According to my thumbnail calc (probabilities ain't my thing), the odds against losing after 12 consecutive spins (upon which unlike my earlier example, we must now include the zero as a losing spin also), are approximately 3000:1 against. So, it'll take fully 3000 spins (or sequence of losing spins) before, on average, this is "due" to occur. In simplistic terms, even on a 10p stake, you would therefore have expected my profit to have well exceeded £7 before the 12 consecutive losers occurred? I'm not clever enough to work it out, but it should be a pretty rare event statistically to even have three reds or three blacks in a row, and roughly half the time you should be winning on the very first spin, so let's say this works out as approximately ~2000 wins before catastrophic failure - which is a profit of ~£200 on 10p/stake. Not £7...

edit: Actually, thinking about it, I've over complicated things incorrectly here. The actual expected profit is £300, not ~£200, since a PART sequence of losing spins interrupted by a winning opposite colour counts as ONE "spin" in this example. So, it's simply £0.10 x 3000 = £300 for a probability of 1.0. On that basis, a measly £7 profit before it *actually* occurred is fairly nasty.

_________________
Beware of gavia articulata oculos...

Dr Lave wrote:
Of course, he's normally wrong but interestingly wrong :p


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:48 
User avatar
Gogmagog

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 48607
Location: Cheshire
It'd be around 1 in eight to get three same color in a row, surely (ignoring the 0) (0.5*0.5*0.5)

_________________
Mr Chris wrote:
MaliA isn't just the best thing on the internet - he's the best thing ever.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:52 
User avatar

Joined: 23rd Nov, 2008
Posts: 9521
Location: The Golden Country
MaliA wrote:
It'd be around 1 in eight to get three same color in a row, surely (ignoring the 0) (0.5*0.5*0.5)


Actually it's 1 in 4.22 mate. Think about it: the first spin doesn't matter if it's red or black (so can be ignored), and the minor effect of the zero needs to be factored in also.

_________________
Beware of gavia articulata oculos...

Dr Lave wrote:
Of course, he's normally wrong but interestingly wrong :p


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:55 
User avatar
Gogmagog

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 48607
Location: Cheshire
Also, the system has no memory, it doesn't reset each time, so if you're going red or black, the probability of getting a red or black is the same each time. If I were to roll a dice 87 time, the probability of getting a 5 on the 88th is still one in six.

_________________
Mr Chris wrote:
MaliA isn't just the best thing on the internet - he's the best thing ever.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:56 
User avatar

Joined: 23rd Nov, 2008
Posts: 9521
Location: The Golden Country
MaliA wrote:
Also, the system has no memory, it doesn't reset each time, so if you're going red or black, the probability of getting a red or black is the same each time. If I were to roll a dice 87 time, the probability of getting a 5 on the 88th is still one in six.


I know mate, I know. ;)

_________________
Beware of gavia articulata oculos...

Dr Lave wrote:
Of course, he's normally wrong but interestingly wrong :p


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 13:26 
User avatar
Sleepyhead

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 27343
Location: Kidbrooke
Aye, you got unlucky in how quickly it happened, but over time it's still a losing strategy. The best you can hope for is a good start and bank a small profit. The longer you play the higher the percentage chance of a losing play.

It's also why table limits exist at casinos.

12 in a row is unlucky. No doubt. I've probably only seen a complete board (tables have the last X amount of spin results on a board next to the wheel) twice or three times, and I've been to more casinos than I should have!

_________________
We are young despite the years
We are concern
We are hope, despite the times


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 13:55 
SupaMod
User avatar
Est. 1978

Joined: 27th Mar, 2008
Posts: 69502
Location: Your Mum
Trousers wrote:
How about BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB?

Quote:
The most famous example of the gambler’s fallacy occurred in a game of roulette at the Monte Carlo Casino on August 18, 1913,[5] when the ball fell in black 26 times in a row. This was an extremely uncommon occurrence, although no more nor less common than any of the other 67,108,863 sequences of 26 red or black. Gamblers lost millions of francs betting against black, reasoning incorrectly that the streak was causing an "imbalance" in the randomness of the wheel, and that it had to be followed by a long streak of red.[1]

Didn't a Beexer write a story about a "chance angel" spoilz

_________________
Grim... wrote:
I wish Craster had left some girls for the rest of us.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 14:17 
User avatar
Sleepyhead

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 27343
Location: Kidbrooke
Grim... wrote:
Trousers wrote:
How about BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB?

Quote:
The most famous example of the gambler’s fallacy occurred in a game of roulette at the Monte Carlo Casino on August 18, 1913,[5] when the ball fell in black 26 times in a row. This was an extremely uncommon occurrence, although no more nor less common than any of the other 67,108,863 sequences of 26 red or black. Gamblers lost millions of francs betting against black, reasoning incorrectly that the streak was causing an "imbalance" in the randomness of the wheel, and that it had to be followed by a long streak of red.[1]

Didn't a Beexer write a story about a "chance angel" who ignored everything for a while and then got audited and had to keep all the tables in a casino spinning black for ages to balance things out?


Yup. Me.

_________________
We are young despite the years
We are concern
We are hope, despite the times


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 14:59 
SupaMod
User avatar
Est. 1978

Joined: 27th Mar, 2008
Posts: 69502
Location: Your Mum
I thought it might have been. Is it still around anywhere? I want to read it again.

_________________
Grim... wrote:
I wish Craster had left some girls for the rest of us.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 15:20 
User avatar
Sleepyhead

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 27343
Location: Kidbrooke
Grim... wrote:
I thought it might have been. Is it still around anywhere? I want to read it again.


I'll send it to you. The intention is for it to form part of a much larger story. But that has been the intention for a number of years now.

_________________
We are young despite the years
We are concern
We are hope, despite the times


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 15:26 
User avatar

Joined: 23rd Nov, 2008
Posts: 9521
Location: The Golden Country
I could've chuffing well done with him last weekend, let me tell you. :D

(Seriously though, that sounds interesting. Love stuff like that).

_________________
Beware of gavia articulata oculos...

Dr Lave wrote:
Of course, he's normally wrong but interestingly wrong :p


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 15:45 
User avatar
Sleepyhead

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 27343
Location: Kidbrooke
Cavey wrote:
I could've chuffing well done with him last weekend, let me tell you. :D

(Seriously though, that sounds interesting. Love stuff like that).


Send me your email address :)

Though Grim...'s post does spoil about half of it already!

_________________
We are young despite the years
We are concern
We are hope, despite the times


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 16:08 
User avatar
Excellent Member

Joined: 25th Jul, 2010
Posts: 11128
Grim... wrote:
Didn't a Beexer write a story about a "chance angel" spoilz


I don't understand a word of your this, which must be me being dim. What's a 'chance angel'?


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 16:17 
User avatar
Sleepyhead

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 27343
Location: Kidbrooke
Bamba wrote:
Grim... wrote:
Didn't a Beexer write a story about a "chance angel" spoilz


I don't understand a word of your this, which must be me being dim. What's a 'chance angel'?


Something that doesn't exist. It's something from a work of fiction.

_________________
We are young despite the years
We are concern
We are hope, despite the times


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 16:22 
User avatar
Excellent Member

Joined: 25th Jul, 2010
Posts: 11128
Curiosity wrote:
Bamba wrote:
Grim... wrote:
Didn't a Beexer write a story about a "chance angel" spoilz


I don't understand a word of your this, which must be me being dim. What's a 'chance angel'?


Something that doesn't exist. It's something from a work of fiction.


Ah, right; I thought Grim was referring to an actual thing that happened that you'd told a story about which was boggling my mind somewhat trying to work out the context. It all being complete fiction makes much more sense! :DD


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Fri Jul 04, 2014 9:45 
User avatar
Isn't that lovely?

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 10910
Location: Devon
It was based on a thought I had and curio wrote the story. It was pretty good.

Malc

_________________
Where's the Kaboom? I was expecting an Earth shattering Kaboom!


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 9:50 
User avatar
Hello Hello Hello

Joined: 11th May, 2008
Posts: 13381
Out for a few beers with a mate last night since it's a bank holiday here today (Tynwald Day for the win!) and I largely avoided the fruities (I'd say I'm basically retired these days despite there still being money to be made, just can't be arsed with the overall hassle of it, I certainly don't load up on pound coins and go out for a round any more and haven't done for months).

However in one of the last pubs we went to there was a Hot Hot Hot with the cashpot sat at £70, which to me may as well be a big FREE MONEY HERE sign.

(The 'method' on this machine is very simple, in essence the cashpot is a 'semi-free' win, so if the cashpot is high (over £60 or so) you force out the cashpot off the top zone, and then force out again for a jackpot off the top zone. The idea being that as the cashpot is semi-free you'll have got the machine pretty happy during the force as you're not collecting anything, then the cashpot won't knock it back much, so it'll still be close to jackpot happy afterwards. If the cashpot isn't high then you don't have the cushion so it's not worth doing. The cashpot seeds at around £15-£25 and then slowly builds up over time, being funded from a small percentage of overall money staked, hence it being 'paid for' mostly upfront thus not being accounted for as a normal win.)

The pub was pretty busy and the machine had been played a little bit on and off whilst we were there (all playing it completely wrong and indeed on the wrong stake), but there was no one playing it when I approached and there hadn't been for 10 minutes or more. Since it had a note acceptor I bunged a £20 note in and rattled through it on £1 play. As I'm (a) On £1 per spin and (b) Ignoring everything except the top shots zone I burned through that very quickly. (I really do play at a very rapid rate of knots.) It was climbing to the mega shots zone though which means it's not too far off. Another £20 note and then another followed, I was about a tenner through the third £20 when it caved and gave me a skill shot for the cashpot on the top shots zone for £70. (So £20 profit at this point.)

A little ripple went through some of the folks nearby, 'He's got the fucking jackpot already, people have been playing that all weekend and it's not paid jackpot' (that sort of thing). Of course I'd only just started 'cause I was now after my follow-up jackpot since the cashpot is (semi) paid from a different 'pool' than normal wins. True enough about £30 back in of the £70 and it gave a skill for jackpot, to make a bank of £110.

This caused rather more consternation, comments along the lines of 'another fucking jackpot' and suchlike. Collecting the bank I went to drop my glass off on the bar and the barman asked if I wanted to change the coins down, which I didn't really as it's a bit like 'flashing the cash' but it's also rude not to so I acquiesced. So then of course I dump £110 onto the bar in coins which he counts out and then gets £110 in notes from the till.

As we walk out there's a (mostly) jokey 'Kick his head in he just won a hundred quid!', but no actual aggro as such.

Of course my actual profit was only £60 as it was £50 in for £110 out, but to everyone in there I'd 'won' £110. (People never seem to account for what you have to put in, for some reason.)

Either way it reminded me why I don't really bother these days, when you're seen as 'stealing' everyone else's money it tends not to make you massively popular.

Still, free night out and a bit of a bonus money too.

Attachment:
hothree.JPG


You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Aug 06, 2014 8:43 
User avatar
EvilTrousers

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 3073
Yer man above taught me a "thing" for a couple of the fruit machines on the ferry back from the Isle of Man.

It involved a reasonable investment but hardly any trickery and at least your money back. On my first couple of goes I pulled the £70 jackpot out of it and ended up turning a £40 bag of coins into £126 meaning a profit of £86 in total which would normally have paid for the ferry price and a fair few rounds. As it was it covered all but £6 of the losses I made in the casino being less controlled and more pissed the Saturday beforehand. Oh well.

It was very strange to play a fruit machine knowing I had it at my mercy and that I could play against the normal rules going higher on an 11 and turning down normally lucrative wins etc. Was quite enjoyable.

More so than the 45 minutes we spent on Sunday trying to force a fruit machine in a pub which made my arse twitch as we fed it tenners until it finally punted out £140 at us for about that in.

_________________
Everyone but Zardoz is better than me at videogames.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Wed Aug 06, 2014 13:24 
User avatar
Hello Hello Hello

Joined: 11th May, 2008
Posts: 13381
That DOND was shocking. They're notoriously bad forcers but to take £122 in when it was double gaming from the first board and £10 stacking is pretty damn bad. We still won £18 in the end though!

Those two machines on the ferry are pure filth though, I'm rather looking forward to our family break to Liverpool next month :hat:


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Sun Aug 10, 2014 9:50 
Excellent Member

Joined: 5th Dec, 2010
Posts: 3353
Quote:
Either way it reminded me why I don't really bother these days, when you're seen as 'stealing' everyone else's money it tends not to make you massively popular.

Still, free night out and a bit of a bonus money too.


Not for one minute saying you should get your head kicked in, but I can understand the locals.

They fill these machines that are bent and have been for the last 25 years or more in that there are "bugs" and methods that can be exploited by a few people.

You and I go on the same forums re fruit machines and they are full of tales from people who go around pubs, and service stations armed with these methods and in many cases leave the machines in a state where there will just eat money for weeks.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The pointless emulation thread - fruit machines
PostPosted: Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:37 
User avatar
Hello Hello Hello

Joined: 11th May, 2008
Posts: 13381
Another free session on the beers and meal thanks to my dear friends the AWPs.

This time it was mainly thanks to some, (if I do say so myself), very nifty reel skilling. (And professional advice on how to game a certain feature.) This was £10 in for £50 out.

Other than that it was just a straight force on a clearly very happy (but usually avoided) machine, which yielded £70 out for £40 in.

Total £70 profit, paid for beer and food!

Attachment:
rof.jpg


You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic  [ 1158 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ... 24  Next

All times are UTC [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Vogons and 0 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search within this thread:
You are using the 'Ted' forum. Bill doesn't really exist any more. Bogus!
Want to help out with the hosting / advertising costs? That's very nice of you.
Are you on a mobile phone? Try http://beex.co.uk/m/
RIP, Owen. RIP, MrC.

Powered by a very Grim... version of phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group.