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The end of the UK?
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Author:  Dr Zoidberg [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 15:03 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

American Nervoso wrote:
Being granted Scottish citizenship isn't the same as saying 'now you're Scottish' - you do realise this?


Of course, but that doesn't mean that it wouldn't be popular with everyone.

Author:  myp [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 15:08 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

Dr Zoidberg wrote:
American Nervoso wrote:
Being granted Scottish citizenship isn't the same as saying 'now you're Scottish' - you do realise this?


Of course, but that doesn't mean that it wouldn't be popular with everyone.

If the vote is going to be as close as we're expecting, then half the population are going to be unhappy in either case.

Author:  Grim... [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 15:10 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

Cavey wrote:
Hot on the heels of billions of pounds being wiped off the value of Scottish companies off the back of ONE opinion poll showing Yes ahead by ONE PERCENT, RBS, Lloyds and Tesco Bank all saying they'll move to England in the event of a Yes vote today.

That was always going to be the case, though. As I understood it they'd have to because of needing to be based in the same region where they do the most work, or something.

I suspect someone cleverer will tell me I'm wrong, however.

Author:  ElephantBanjoGnome [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 15:10 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

At this point I'd say there was a compelling case for businesses to move south regardless of the result. Why risk potential future uncertainty?

Author:  Kern [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 15:16 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

American Nervoso wrote:
Being granted Scottish citizenship isn't the same as saying 'now you're Scottish' - you do realise this?


The citizenship test will have a practical section involving the gay gordons, playing the bagpipes (marks deducted for tunefulness), and caber-tossing.

Author:  myp [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 15:18 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

ElephantBanjoGnome wrote:
At this point I'd say there was a compelling case for businesses to move south regardless of the result. Why risk potential future uncertainty?

A country that doesnt rely on huge multinational corporations and banks? Actually sounds like somewhere I'd like to live.

Author:  Cavey [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 15:21 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

Grim... wrote:
Cavey wrote:
Hot on the heels of billions of pounds being wiped off the value of Scottish companies off the back of ONE opinion poll showing Yes ahead by ONE PERCENT, RBS, Lloyds and Tesco Bank all saying they'll move to England in the event of a Yes vote today.

That was always going to be the case, though. As I understood it they'd have to because of needing to be based in the same region where they do the most work, or something.

I suspect someone cleverer will tell me I'm wrong, however.


Not sure I follow? Plenty of Scots individuals and businesses use these banks.

But regardless, even in that case (as opposed to other concerns about a run on the bank, capital flight, 'dollarisation' and no State control over monetary policies/interest rates, international interest rates imposed on an iScotland State, possibly defaulting or otherwise, and/or a lack of lender of last resort), it would still be a direct result and 'dividend' of a Yes vote.

Author:  Kern [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 15:24 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

Grim... wrote:
That was always going to be the case, though. As I understood it they'd have to because of needing to be based in the same region where they do the most work, or something.


Would have thought it had something to do with the location of your brass plate determining which jurisdiction and central bank you want to be governed by. The assumption being that a London plate will give you access to the Bank of England and the UK's credit rating.

Author:  Cavey [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 15:24 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

ElephantBanjoGnome wrote:
At this point I'd say there was a compelling case for businesses to move south regardless of the result. Why risk potential future uncertainty?


Mmm. Don't know about that; the last Indyref was in 1979, more than 30 years ago. One assumes this won't be a regular occurrence (though to be fair, the way some cybernats talk about this, one can never be sure - so perhaps you have a point?)

Author:  myp [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 15:26 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

RBS moving to England should count as a blessing for Scotland anyway - means they wouldn't have to bail them out again.

Author:  Dr Zoidberg [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 15:28 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

American Nervoso wrote:
Dr Zoidberg wrote:
American Nervoso wrote:
Being granted Scottish citizenship isn't the same as saying 'now you're Scottish' - you do realise this?


Of course, but that doesn't mean that it wouldn't be popular with everyone.

If the vote is going to be as close as we're expecting, then half the population are going to be unhappy in either case.


Half those who bothered to vote, anyway.
I'd be happier with the outcome if we get greater than 50% of the eligible votes for one side or another, as at least that way we'll have a proper answer about what the majority of Scots wanted.

If we get 51/49 split on the votes but only 70% turnout then we'll never hear the end of it from the side that "lost"

Author:  Cavey [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 15:29 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

American Nervoso wrote:
RBS moving to England should count as a blessing for Scotland anyway - means they wouldn't have to bail them out again.


Not really, no. The BAD bit (and yes, it was a really bad bit) has been done now; at least now reap the benefits of the jobs, corporation tax and VAT receipts etc. moving forwards and local supply chain commerce, after the fact. Otherwise it's a bit like stumping up a £500k bill on your £200k supercar, then just giving it away.

Author:  Cavey [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 15:31 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

American Nervoso wrote:
ElephantBanjoGnome wrote:
At this point I'd say there was a compelling case for businesses to move south regardless of the result. Why risk potential future uncertainty?

A country that doesnt rely on huge multinational corporations and banks? Actually sounds like somewhere I'd like to live.


I hear that Venezuela is lovely this time of year, as Socialist Utopias go.

(Shame about the 60% inflation rate, mass corruption and the fact it's completely on its arse and about to default massively, quelle surprise).

Author:  myp [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 15:33 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

Why? By definition, the other 30% don't care, so you can't add them to either side.

Author:  Kern [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 15:33 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

Dr Zoidberg wrote:
If we get 51/49 split on the votes but only 70% turnout then we'll never hear the end of it from the side that "lost"


If the 'no' vote lose narrowly, they will have to lump it. Of course, it is possible that the negotiations are strung out so there is another Holyrood election that sweeps the SNP out of power, and the incoming administration calls a second referedum 'on the terms of the agreed/potential treaty', allowing for a revocation of it. But I feel that would be unlikely.

I still think that the final terms should be put to a vote though.

Author:  Grim... [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 15:40 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

Cavey wrote:
American Nervoso wrote:
RBS moving to England should count as a blessing for Scotland anyway - means they wouldn't have to bail them out again.


Not really, no. The BAD bit (and yes, it was a really bad bit) has been done now; at least now reap the benefits of the jobs, corporation tax and VAT receipts etc. moving forwards and local supply chain commerce, after the fact.

Corp tax has nothing to do with where a company's headquarters are based, does it? Otherwise all the tax for companies like Ikea (for example) would leave the country.

Also I don't think they're planning to move any jobs.

Author:  Cavey [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 15:45 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

Grim... wrote:
Cavey wrote:
American Nervoso wrote:
RBS moving to England should count as a blessing for Scotland anyway - means they wouldn't have to bail them out again.


Not really, no. The BAD bit (and yes, it was a really bad bit) has been done now; at least now reap the benefits of the jobs, corporation tax and VAT receipts etc. moving forwards and local supply chain commerce, after the fact.

Corp tax has nothing to do with where a company's headquarters are based, does it? Otherwise all the tax for companies like Ikea (for example) would leave the country.

Also I don't think they're planning to move any jobs.


Eh? I thought a company paid Corporation Tax in the country in which they are headquartered/listed/incorporated (i.e. not Ikea). APOD's our man here, I suspect. :)

As regards jobs, that might well be the case on Day One but I hardly think that'd remain so. Canary Wharf, here we come etc.

Author:  Bobbyaro [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 15:57 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

American Nervoso wrote:
RBS moving to England should count as a blessing for Scotland anyway - means they wouldn't have to bail them out again.

Exactly! RBS liabilities are significantly greater than the entire Scottish GDP! Scotland don't want them.

Author:  ElephantBanjoGnome [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 16:07 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

Cavey wrote:
One assumes this won't be a regular occurrence


I'd hope not, and while an immediate move south would be prohibitively costly in the event of a No vote, there may nonetheless be a slow trickle of asset movement south. 'That new operations centre? Yep fellas, we'd best site that in England'. Elements that would naturally be renewed over time could find themselves redeployed in the south. Costs to relocate would be minimised in the event this bollocks rolls around again in the future.

Relatedly, if we suddenly became friends with Russia again, would be breathe a sigh if relief about gas supplies or use the stability to begin a slow move away from that risky dependence?

Author:  ElephantBanjoGnome [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 16:13 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

Bobbyaro wrote:
Scotland don't want them.

Yeah those thousands of jobs are a real ball and chain.

Author:  Bobbyaro [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 16:14 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

Conversely, the "free" NHS and universities could see a migration of people to Scotland, this could either be a good thing or a bad thing.

Author:  Bobbyaro [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 16:14 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

ElephantBanjoGnome wrote:
Bobbyaro wrote:
Scotland don't want them.

Yeah those thousands of jobs are a real ball and chain.

No, but the billions of debt are.

Edit, perhaps I should have said "can't afford to want them"

Author:  Kern [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 16:18 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

Bobbyaro wrote:
Conversely, the "free" NHS and universities could see a migration of people to Scotland, this could either be a good thing or a bad thing.


If the elderly, infirm, and young move up north, that will free up resources and ease the demographic pressures down here.
Scotland has to increase its working age population, to provide the money to support them all. As does the rest of the UK too, but I think the dependency ratio is worse up in Scotland.

Author:  Bobbyaro [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 16:25 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

agreed, but in the long term, having the most popular universities might see an increase in jobs and such if people stay in the area.

Author:  ApplePieOfDestiny [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 16:46 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

Cavey wrote:
Eh? I thought a company paid Corporation Tax in the country in which they are headquartered/listed/incorporated (i.e. not Ikea). APOD's our man here, I suspect. :)


In general, a company pays corporation tax in the country where it is headquartered and in every country in which it operates. So if a (single) company has a UK headquarters and offices in 5 countries, it pays tax on its profits overseas, then pays tax in the UK on its total profits, but sets off the overseas tax bill against the UK charge.

Easiest way to think about it is that if a company has £1000 profits worldwide, and £800 of those are non UK carrying a £160 tax charge, the UK tax bill is £1000 @ 20% = £200 less the £160 paid overseas equals £40. An alternate way of doing it now is that the overseas earnings can be deemed exempt from UK tax, so you pay 20% on the £200 UK profits (Same figure results)

Where swivelling eyed nutjobs then get dickish is that they say they've paid 4% UK tax on profits, ignoring the fact they've paid £200 on £1,000, which is 20% and the UK rate overall, and the credit system is how this works between virtually every country the UK trades with.

It gets more complex than that, otherwise I wouldn't have a job, but if you take the basic position that RBS makes £200 in Scotland and £800 in England it would pay the same amount of tax to the rUK treasury (regardless as to where it is headquartered) either under the credit or the exemption system. Don't know about the Bank Levy though.

Quote:
As regards jobs, that might well be the case on Day One but I hardly think that'd remain so. Canary Wharf, here we come etc


They can fuck right off. There isnt any space left for them.

Author:  Cavey [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 17:09 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

Nice one mate, cheers for the info! :)
Beex always has the answer; we should be a government think tank or something. I'll brew up, yeah?

Author:  Curiosity [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 18:04 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

American Nervoso wrote:
ElephantBanjoGnome wrote:
At this point I'd say there was a compelling case for businesses to move south regardless of the result. Why risk potential future uncertainty?

A country that doesnt rely on huge multinational corporations and banks? Actually sounds like somewhere I'd like to live.


Having no lender of last resort means that if your bank fucks up then all your savings are gone forever. Ditto your pension. You sure that's a good thing?

Author:  Kern [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 22:06 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

Watched the Young People's debate over BBC Scotland (couldn't be bothered to wait until 22:40). Very impressed by how both Nicola Sturgeon and the Tory leader Ruth Davidson debated, although Sturgeon would at time get a bit annoyingly shouty. Feel they both would do well on the national level.

Galloway was charmingly rabble rousing, and it was amusing to see him share a platform with a Tory and hear him talk positively about bankers and capitalists.

The Green was as nice as Greens tend to be.

Author:  ElephantBanjoGnome [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 22:20 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

Kern wrote:
Galloway was charmingly rabble rousing

A charming, hamas-supporting anti-semitic demagogue.

Author:  Kern [ Thu Sep 11, 2014 22:25 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

ElephantBanjoGnome wrote:
Kern wrote:
Galloway was charmingly rabble rousing

A charming, hamas-supporting anti-semitic demagogue.


Strange times make for strange bedfellows.

Author:  Cavey [ Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:37 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

Interesting piece by Prof. Simon Wren-Lewis, economics professor at Oxford University, and a fellow of Merton College.

Quote:
Scotland and the SNP: Fooling yourselves and deceiving others

There are many laudable reasons to campaign for Scottish independence. But how far should those who passionately want independence be prepared to go to achieve that goal? Should they, for example, deceive the Scottish people about the basic economics involved? That seems to be what is happening right now. The more I look at the numbers, the clearer it becomes that over the next five or ten years there would more, not less, fiscal austerity under independence.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies is widely respected as an independent and impartial source of expertise on everything to do with government spending, borrowing and taxation in the UK. It has produced a detailed analysis (recently updated) of the fiscal (tax and spending) outlook for an independent Scotland, compared to what would happen if Scotland stayed in the UK. It has no axe to grind on this issue, and a considerable reputation to maintain.

Their analysis is unequivocal. Scotland’s fiscal position would be worse as a result of leaving the UK for two main reasons. First, demographic trends are less favourable. Second, revenues from the North Sea are expected to decline. This tells us that under current policies Scotland would be getting an increasingly good deal out of being part of the UK. To put it another way, the rest of the UK would be transferring resources to Scotland at an increasing rate, giving Scotland time to adjust to these trends and cushioning their impact. Paying back, if you like, for all the earlier years when North Sea oil production was at its peak.


Quote:
This is certainly the impression I get from reading a lot of literature as I researched this post. The arguments in the Wee Blue Book are exactly that: no sustained economic argument, but just a collection of random quotes and debating points to make a problem go away.


http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2014/ ... s-and.html

Author:  Cavey [ Fri Sep 12, 2014 15:14 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

SNP talk of 'nationalising BP' and 'boycotting John Lewis' as businesses daring to speak out against Yes:

Quote:
Scottish independence: FORMER SNP deputy leader Jim Sillars has claimed there will be a “day of reckoning” for major Scottish employers such as Royal Bank of Scotland and Standard Life after a Yes vote.

Speaking from his campaign vehicle the “Margo Mobile”, Mr Sillars insisted that employers are “subverting Scotland’s democratic process” and vowed that oil giant BP would be nationalised in an independent Scotland.

Earlier this week, a number of banks, including Lloyds Banking Group and RBS, said they would look to move their headquarters south of the border in the event of a Yes vote.

Mr Sillars, who earlier this week claimed he and First Minister Alex Salmond had put their long-held personal differences behind them to campaign together for independence, also revealed that he would not retire from politics on 19 September but said he would be “staying in” if Scotland became independent.

He claimed there is talk of a “boycott” of John Lewis, banks to be split up, and new law to force Ryder Cup sponsor Standard Life to explain to unions its reasons for moving outside Scotland.

He said: “This referendum is about power, and when we get a Yes majority, we will use that power for a day of reckoning with BP and the banks.

“The heads of these companies are rich men, in cahoots with a rich English Tory Prime Minister, to keep Scotland’s poor, poorer through lies and distortions. The power they have now to subvert our democracy will come to an end with a Yes.”

He added: “BP, in an independent Scotland, will need to learn the meaning of nationalisation, in part or in whole, as it has in other countries who have not been as soft as we have forced to be. We will be the masters of the oil fields, not BP or any other of the majors.”


Mr Sillars, whose wife, MSP Margo MacDonald died earlier this year, said that under an independent Scotland, Standard Life would be required by new employment laws to give two years warning of any redundancies - and reveal to the trade unions its financial reasons for relocation to any country outside of Scotland.

What kind of people do these companies think we are? They will find out,” he added.


http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/t ... -1-3539754


If that doesn't send a shiver down the spine, nothing will.

Author:  Bobbyaro [ Fri Sep 12, 2014 15:44 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

Well, I would be very interested to see it happen, just not in my country first! So, "vote yes, for economic and fiscal experimentation!"

Author:  Curiosity [ Fri Sep 12, 2014 15:47 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

I would be interested in seeing how an independent Scottish government would go about nationalising multinational corporation BP.

I fear it would end better for BP than for Scotland.

Author:  MrChris [ Fri Sep 12, 2014 17:48 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

BP could pretty much just buy Scotland.

Also, Sillars is a fucking lunatic.

Author:  ApplePieOfDestiny [ Fri Sep 12, 2014 17:55 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

What kind of dog do these oranges think they are?

Author:  Cras [ Fri Sep 12, 2014 18:22 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

That's some impressive frothing. It makes about as much sense as "When Scotland becomes independent, we'll move it to the moon!"

Author:  ApplePieOfDestiny [ Fri Sep 12, 2014 18:49 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

What type of emerald do these apostrophes think they are?

Actually sillars has a good shot at writing for clickhole if politics fails for him.

Author:  TheCookie197 [ Fri Sep 12, 2014 22:40 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

This is awesome.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/09/11/scottish-independence-darth-vader-music_n_5804224.html

Author:  Bobbyaro [ Sat Sep 13, 2014 21:30 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

Has this been posted? Groundskeeper Willy's views on Scottish independence.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6vDzf-wSbk

Author:  ElephantBanjoGnome [ Mon Sep 15, 2014 11:01 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

Campaign now at unbearable fever pitch. Placard-waving loons everywhere. Can't wait for it to be over. I now suspect riots will occur in the event of a No vote.

Author:  Cavey [ Mon Sep 15, 2014 11:22 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

ElephantBanjoGnome wrote:
I now suspect riots will occur in the event of a No vote.


Was that ever in doubt, particularly over the last 6 months?
Those who have goaded the hitherto peaceful Scottish electorate and turned up the devisive hate to max will likely have much to answer for IMO.

Author:  krazywookie [ Mon Sep 15, 2014 13:50 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

I just spent the weekend at goodwood revival showing a car that the company I work for built. I was expecting to be questioned on the referendum what with it being a burning topic atm and so it was, despite my attempts to keep the chat about cars. Some observations: it quickly became apparent that there were two different types of people, one set would express genuine interest in the subject, offer their opinions and ultimately offer us good luck. The other set tended to be pretty confrontational about it, their argument being that we were greedily breaking up "the union" for our own benefit. Imo that's not a great argument, why on earth would a country not do something that it thought would benefit it in the long run? Another thing that struck me was quite how different the south of England is to the rest of the country, its obvious that there is a lot of money swirling around down there and that things are done quite differently than in backwater Scotland. Now there's nothing wrong with that of course but it reinforces my thoughts that if Scotland could look after its own interests it would, in the long run, be a nicer place to live. This has been written on the move and off the top of my head so might well have holes in it, pick away.

Author:  DavPaz [ Mon Sep 15, 2014 14:00 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

Study indicates that up to 60,000 Uk specific civil service jobs in Scotland could go post independence.

http://www.instituteforgovernment.org.u ... erspective

(it's a bit of a read)

Author:  zaphod79 [ Mon Sep 15, 2014 14:07 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?


Author:  TheCookie197 [ Mon Sep 15, 2014 17:43 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

ElephantBanjoGnome wrote:
Campaign now at unbearable fever pitch. Placard-waving loons everywhere. Can't wait for it to be over. I now suspect riots will occur in the event of a No vote.


I suspect there will be a similar reaction from some in the event of a Yes also.

Author:  Kern [ Mon Sep 15, 2014 17:51 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

I am trying to decide how late to stay up on Thursday night. Haven't taken Friday off, and annoyingly have meetings booked so can't 'work from home'.

Have we devised official BeeX Drinking Game rules for the results show yet?

Author:  Bobbyaro [ Mon Sep 15, 2014 17:55 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

Shame it isn't the cottage weekend!

Author:  Hearthly [ Mon Sep 15, 2014 18:44 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

I think the No vote will win, simply because of the sheer ridiculous TERROR AND DOOM mode that the No campaign has gone into, and I think enough people will be sufficiently scared by it to go for a No vote, and play it safe.

At the last count I believe I've heard that a No vote will result in all men north of the border immediately becoming sterile and also never being able to achieve a satisfactory erection again, plus a hostile fleet of UFOs will arrive over Edinburgh and systematically kill every Scottish person in a one hundred mile radius.

I think they're scared an independent Scotland would actually work and show that there's a better and more equal way to run a society than the shower of cunts we've had in Westminster since Thatcher took office decided is the way to go.

I realise that last sentence is massively inelegant in its construction but I can't be arsed to rewrite it.

Author:  asfish [ Mon Sep 15, 2014 18:59 ]
Post subject:  Re: The end of the UK?

We should stop all this endless debate, the Yes vote will win.

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