Be Excellent To Each Other

If I was less bothered about offending the 'emotional' voters (read: chip-on-shoulder easily-led morons) I might have said something like this at the start.

If the polls are indeed closing, I can't think of anything worse than a 50/50 split in any result. How can you claim a decent mandate in either event if damn near half of people disagree? It's a terrible state for the country to be in going forward.

I'm fairly agnostic about the whole thing, to be honest. But it does strike me that with the closeness of the polls, the way the debate has been conducted (by both sides) this is going to leave some serious post-referendum issues.

And if Scotland votes "yes", the separation negotiations are going to be epic in their unpleasantness also. The UK (and in particular the Tory administration) will have stuff all motivation to act remotely reasonably at that point, and Scotland doesn't have a massive amount we want other than Faslane (although I'm firmly of the opinion that should be moved down south anyway - there are some great ex-naval base locations in Wales that could be used as an alternative, and I'm sure they'd appreciate the fillip that would give the local economy), and we'll have a massive argument over the oil (which will probably have run out by the time any agreement is reached anyway...).

All that said, though, I'd love "no" to win just to shut that execrable tosspot Salmond up. The smug, racist "nationalistic" cockweasel.

I really hope that if Scotland does vote 'Yes' then the UK government does act like dicks re: the negotiations. Equally though, they shouldn't give Salmond everything his fantasy requires if it is to the detriment of the remaining union states.

was there a "not" missing there?

Hah, yes. They shouldn't be dicks.

They will be though. What incentive will they have to act reasonably?

Basic humanity?

I mean, I know they'll likely be dicks, I just think they shouldn't.

Tory government? BWAHAHAHAHAH.



I agree with you on both points but, ultimately, why shouldn't they, though? At that point we have cock all responsibility to Scotland, and every responsibility to jealously guard the interests of the rest of the UK. Arguably they shouldn't give away a single thing without extracting as heavy a price as possible. Caveat to this is that we would want to avoid anything damaging any trade that we rely on on our side of the border. Other than that, "fuck 'em" would be the watchword.

And in reality it would likely be even worse, as Cameron and Osborne try to fuck over Salmond as hard as possible, to make the whole thing a massive failure.

I'd have thought the dickishness will stop-at least to an extent-if they have to negotiate independence. The whole thing about the pound seems insane to me-we have a clearly defined area that uses the pound; an optimal currency area, I think the term is, from when I researched it for a project on the euro (for which I had to conclude the main reason is political, not financial, despite hoping to find compelling financial evidence for its existence). The idea that would be thrown away is insanity, and surely just a bargaining chip. One that seems to have been successful, given that the question is even raised-surely the only reaction to the idea the remaining 'uk' would spite itself by effectively removing part of their currency area is 'yeah, right'.

I can see the logic in campaigning terms-for a long time the whole question seemed moot, just a case of going through the motions to get the no vote polls had long pointed to, so any grandstanding to tilt things that way would seem sensible. But that sort of cutting own nose off type stuff will have to stop if sense takes over after a yes vote.

Well, yeah, but to what extent would it be the UK cutting off its own nose, though? I'm not convinced how a shared currency would be a benefit to us at all, and I can certainly see the downsides. Yes, fine, carry on using the pound in the way Ecuador or wherever uses the dollar, but fuck off with a currency union.

I can't see any upside to cutting out what would be a separate country with whom we trade all the time, and only downside in any faff of exchanging notes or differing rates for existing transactions.

There was a very good piece by George Monbiot on this topic earlier in the week.

If I were voting in the referendum I'd probably go for 'Yes', not just because of this article, but it does sum up some of my own feelings.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... d-scotland

Anything that has got the wankers down in Westminster so collectively hot and bothered has got to be a good thing IMO.....

Meh. Entirely coincidentally, we've got a whole bunch of friends coming over on 20th Sept.
Man, that's going to be one helluva party, as this old chestnut is finally laid to rest.

Stu's "Plotting the route to Scottish Independence" thread, or whatever it was back in 2005 (now deleted, along with my replies at even that time), seems like a long, long time ago. I shall savour that moment like the finest Champagne that has ever graced this Earth, believe you me.

I think I will continue to despise at least 50% of the population regardless of how the result goes.

mysogynist

I have a question that may have been covered somewhere in these 39 pages, but 39 pages...

What happens if the vote comes to a 'no' conclusion? Is the idea of Scottish Independence forgotten? Put in a box for how many years, or will we go through this every five or ten years until an eventual yes?

I guess what I am wondering is if you can keep calling referendums on the same issue until you get the change to happen? Because I guess it's a one-way change - once you've got independence it'd be difficult to call a vote to get back in, but you could keep calling them until you got the numbers to separate... or is there some kind of ruling against this?

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence

Have a leaf through that. It keeps coming up every decade or so. Never been a chance of it actually happening until now, though

I believe the Nayers are now offering a fully federalised Scotland as a vote winner. Not sure if it'll work at this stage. It should have been tabled much sooner as now it looks desperate. Plus it should be extended to the whole of the UK.

And Europe, but that's another matter.

"Fully federalised Scotland" = DevoMax by any other name.

(Incidentally, also exactly what I said would happen ~2 years ago)

Whaddya reckon about the poll that had 'Yes' in front, Cavey? Think it's a blip or has the tide turned?

Honestly?
I fear the tide may have turned; I'm less certain than I was. Still think it is likely to be a 'No', but that's no longer a racing certainty. About 80% probability I'd say, with a much tighter finish than 60/40 now certain.

Worrying times.

Of relief is probably that YouGov are notoriously bad at doing polling, and that another done at the same time shows No still ahead.

I have now been assigned potential work based on a Yes vote.

This splits me: it's more interesting work than my usual stuff, which is good, but equally it is more work I don't need!

Yeah, indeed mate, but really all polls should be showing No ahead by 5-15% at this stage in proceedings. As I've said I still think there's a near overwhelming probability of a No victory, but I'm no longer taking that absolutely for granted (and all hopes of a Salmond/Cybernat/Yes drubbing have all but evaporated now, sadly).

Fact Finding Mission required to Scottish Highlands, you'll be a week there and there is little to no 3G conenctivity, but will report back.

Did that. Many no signs, one yes. Nobody talking about it.

Hush, you. I'm trying to get a free holiday from work!

I think it's time to vote yes and pretend I was secretly in favour of it the whole time, rather than just admitting to being a bandwagonning sheep.

These things won't be uppermost in the minds of the more rabid elements of the debate (who couldn't give a fig about business and are actually generally openly hostile towards it), but for everyone else: interesting to note the slide in Scottish company share values upon the market's realisation that 'Yes' could actually happen.

That seems inevitable, but the market is hardly the bastion of hard edged good judgement, and more the whim of opinion, so it'll be just as interesting to see if (I'd argue when) and how quickly they recover.

I disagree; the market is normally sufficiently clued up to know what's good for business and profits (if nothing else), especially in such broad, global terms as this.

Obviously, if it's a No vote, things will indeed recover overnight, but if it's a Yes, I fully anticipate much more steep declines/flight and actually pretty serious implications for Sterling (and thus the rest of the UK).

Things will recover on 'No', but not overnight. Things may recover a bit with 'Yes', but one thing the market hates is uncertainty. Whether that will manifest itself in a dive while they sort the details, or a small rebound as at least they know what is going on, remains to be seen.

Ultimately, losing the oil cash will hurt the pound and the rUK a lot, and it's a question of how much the financial sector moving to the UK (RBS, Standard Life etc) will offset that. And of course, parts of that will rest on the negotiations.

Not too keen on us relying even more on finance though.

This is the same blind faith in the market that caused a little 'upset' in the world of banking a few years ago, as I recall....

And the Dotcom boom (and bust), it did well on that one, too.

Thing is though, if you were Scottish, or just living in Scotland, why wouldn't you vote yes? What's so great about the 'Union' and England?

I have lots of friends and family in England and they pretty much all say the same thing, that it's going to the fucking dogs. (These are normal working folks, not people with buckets of cash living in the leafy shires. And when they come to visit the island they all the same thing, 'It's so lovely here, not like back home.')

I'm told about increasingly poor health services, schools, and public services, rip-off utility companies, high crime and anti-social behaviour (seriously, it'd be easier to list my relatives who HADN'T been burgled), extortionate train fares, a devastating lack of opportunity for the young, wildly expensive higher education - the list just goes on.

Yeah sure enough independence will be a hell of a punt, but christ, I'd go for it. When people talk about the 'wealth of the nation' and what the Scots would be risking, I can only assume they're talking about London and many of the Southern counties, because it's fucking shit up North.

I think my major issue is that people have said this about the country at all times forever. Things are always going to the dogs. Everything is always doom. Except it's all relative, and it's not really. Despite the things we moan about on the allegedly 'privatised' NHS and the fact people have to jump through more hoops to get their jobseekers allowance, this country remains one of the best and most advanced in the world. I think, all things considered, we've got it pretty good.

And it's easy to be annoyed at the government of the moment. Everyone always is. They're always doing something to piss off someone. Successive governments are always promising a socialist utopia and it never happens. Why the fuck I'd believe some Scottish bloke promising the same kind of tedious bollocks is beyond me.

None of this is borne out at all the statistics released . Crime is falling, higher educations costs have gone up, but still represents superb value for money in terms of learning and job prospects. By and large the NHS is still excellent, mainly failing in outlying areas which affect a minority of the population. The UK is not in that poorer shape, no matter what people say.

Wot Mali said.

I agree with Mali but not Mr Chris

Crime doesn't get reported because people assume (usually correctly) that bugger-all will happen, hence the statistics look better.

Higher education counts for little when Pizza Hut have their choice of graduates to employ on zero-hour contracts and the lucky degree holder is £30K in the hole.

The NHS is variable depending on where you are, the mangling the coalition have given it is yet to fully take effect but it's going to be ugly.

I'm not saying the UK is a horrible hellhole because it clearly isn't, but if I were in Scotland I'd be looking south of the border and thinking 'I reckon we can do things better than that lot'.

They have had a lot of MPs in westminster and the result is the same. How can it be better?

Sounds like you quote the daily mail there!

Not all of the UKs problems are England's fault.

I've stayed out of this debate mainly because I have very little to bring to it (nothing new there), but I might as well, stick my oar in here.

The idea of Scotland leaving triggers an actual emotional response from me. It's like being dumped. Worse that that, it's like being left behind with an abusive parent whilst your sibling gets to leave. It's not fair. I identify with the South of England much less that I do with Scotland. This shouldn't be about Scotland breaking away, it should be about London declaring independence and letting the rest of us muddle through as a sleepy backwater country with no history and cultural debt to world. There's so much history in this little island and sometimes I wish I could just start from scratch and be a small, quiet country.

Fuck it, I'm moving to Iceland.

If it helps, most Scottish people I know feel the same and would happily take the north of England with us into our burgeoning socialist utopia if we were able.

The ONS crime statistics are based on something like 12,000 families.

Tuition fees are a note against the NO number which takes the fees out once a student reaches a certain pay threshold. At which pint it is paid back at something like £25 a week. "£30k in the hole" isn't remotely accurate. Employers get what they can for their money, too.

The NHS has meant to have been dismantled by successive governments over the years. I would wait to see how it pans out.

What about us in the South West?!

I'm fairly sure the south west hasn't developed language yet.

You should move.

We should restablish Dumnonia and Mercia, and invade Wessex.

The Iceland economy is profoundly broken, by the way And if you are looking for a country with a greater difference between the capital city and the rest of the country, I don't think you could find one worse than Iceland!

BRING IT

I thought they told the bankers to get fucked, and now live in a socialist utopia?

If by socialist utopia, you mean completely dependant on tourism, then yes.