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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Fri Apr 18, 2014 12:55 
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I am not reassured. I am getting 'Peace for our time' vibes about all this.

I went to Google Maps yesterday to see how it demarks Crimea. I wondered how long it would take before this Russian land-grab is recognised officially by anyone. The result is an impressive half-measure; the border of Crimea is a dashed line with no indication whether it's considered Ukraine or Russia.

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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 9:18 
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Putin's suggesting that unofficial referendums shouldn't go ahead
( http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/m ... -postponed ).

So, having made this annoucement, what's the betting that it goes ahead anyway, and when the result goes Russia's way Putin says, 'well, now you've said you want to join us, can't argue with that' then moves the tanks in?


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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 12:14 
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ElephantBanjoGnome wrote:
I am not reassured. I am getting 'Peace for our time' vibes about all this.

I went to Google Maps yesterday to see how it demarks Crimea. I wondered how long it would take before this Russian land-grab is recognised officially by anyone. The result is an impressive half-measure; the border of Crimea is a dashed line with no indication whether it's considered Ukraine or Russia.



I don't know if you're referring to this or not, but google maps changes the borders based on your locale.

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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 15:46 
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So, NATO have said that Russia have clearly invaded, and Ukraine are considering joining the alliance. Putin, meanwhile, denies any involvement, as usual.

BBC link.

Feels still too calm here, even with the ongoing crises in the Middle East.


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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 19:11 
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Nato and the others just sit and talk shit.

Plenty of country's including the UK have the appetite for War, problem is we don't have the money. Billions was pissed away in Iraq only to see a bigger bunch of nutters taking over

After 5 years of cuts, shit pay rises, tax increases, house prices, job losses etc The last thing the voters will stand for is Billions pissed away again fighting wars that are viewed as nothing to do with the UK.


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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2014 6:22 
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Appetite for war? I seriously doubt there's even 10% of the public who'd openly support another all out war.


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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:01 
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DavPaz wrote:
Appetite for war? I seriously doubt there's even 10% of the public who'd openly support another all out war.


Not with Russia, but I firmly believe that something should be done about ISIS.

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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:03 
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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:57 
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Torn between viewing the defence secretary's warning of Russian sabre-rattling against the Baltic states as either an honest admission that things are more out of control than they have previously let on, or a pre-election ploy to remind voters that they're better off trusting the Tories on defence matters.


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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:59 
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Kern wrote:
Torn between viewing the defence secretary's warning of Russian sabre-rattling against the Baltic states as either an honest admission that things are more out of control than they have previously let on, or a pre-election ploy to remind voters that they're better off trusting the Tories on defence matters.


It is becoming some cause for concern especially as Kernow has been buzzed by bombers today.

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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2015 12:07 

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Yeah, I read about that earlier - do you know if the sightings were confirmed?

EDIT: yes, but they weren't in UK airspace. A bit of willy-waving, do you think?

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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2015 12:12 
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Mimi wrote:
Yeah, I read about that earlier - do you know if the sightings were confirmed?

EDIT: yes, but they weren't in UK airspace. A bit of willy-waving, do you think?


I am fairly sure it is a regular occurrence but only deemed newsworthy now.

I suppose worse case in the short term is a proxy war in the Baltic states, followed by booing at Eurovision. I heard somewhere Putin is very much of the old school and very distrustful of the West, viewing it still as the enemy. this is then reinforced by continuing sanctions. I am sure Kern knows more.

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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2015 12:18 
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MaliA wrote:
I am sure Kern knows more.


I'm very glad you think so.


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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2015 12:20 
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MaliA wrote:
Mimi wrote:
Yeah, I read about that earlier - do you know if the sightings were confirmed?

EDIT: yes, but they weren't in UK airspace. A bit of willy-waving, do you think?


I am fairly sure it is a regular occurrence but only deemed newsworthy now.

I suppose worse case in the short term is a proxy war in the Baltic states, followed by booing at Eurovision. I heard somewhere Putin is very much of the old school and very distrustful of the West, viewing it still as the enemy. this is then reinforced by continuing sanctions.


Aye. Testing response times is a pretty common technique. I doubt Putin would do anything that would risk a response from NATO, but he might try to see how far he can go.

Are the Russians entering the festival of western decadance this year, or was the bearded lady a step too far for them?


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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2015 11:21 
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The House of Lords report (executive summary: 'we were caught with our pants down') is compelling reading. I keep on flipping to it whenever I get frustrated with Visio. From what I've read so far, gives a good explanation of how Russia and the west see themselves. PDF link.


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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2015 14:08 
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BBC: Be vigilant, citizens.


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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:14 
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The way things seem to work these days, I fully expect the western media to launch a campaign painting Putin as a mad despot who is plotting to drop the big one, and the only way to prevent it being a preemptive strike.


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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Sun Feb 22, 2015 10:30 
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I have a horrible feeling they wouldn't be far wrong, though.

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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Sun Feb 22, 2015 14:51 
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Why would the west want to kick off against Russia? It buys us nothing, not even good PR. Plus the risk of escalation to all out war is huge, and no sort of pre-emptive strike short of glassing half the continent and hoping they wouldn't notice in time to retaliate would achieve anything in terms of crippling the Russian army.

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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:38 
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Unfortunately, the general assessment of Putin's strategy is that he fears NATO, the EU, and the west are encircling and threatening Russia, and convincing bordering countries to look westwards rather than eastwards. The bear wants to be a great power again, and views any country aligning itself, or considering to align itself, with western institutions to be tantamount to being hostile.

Of course, from numerous games of 'Risk' we all know that any attempt to invade Russia is doomed to failure, unless you want to be holed up in the Antipodes.


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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:55 
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Kern wrote:
Unfortunately, the general assessment of Putin's strategy is that he fears NATO, the EU, and the west are encircling and threatening Russia, and convincing bordering countries to look westwards rather than eastwards.

Is he wrong? I am not defending Putin's choice in resorting to military force, but isn't there some truth to us having attempted to undermine Russia's influence for decades, and now it has backfired spectacularly and everyone is busy washing their hands and blaming everything on him?


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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 10:00 
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I don't think there is much love between, say, the Baltic states and Russia after the whole Soviet thing. If the people of those countries want to look west and embrace what they see as a better future, should we stop them?

That's probably a rhetorical question as geopolitics isn't really my thing.


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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 10:29 
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Would a strong Russia allied with China, India and numerous other eastern powers not provide a nice future?


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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 10:33 
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China and India aren't likely to make friends. China and Pakistan is a lot more likely.

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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 11:04 
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A lot of Ukranians initially saw the Germans as liberators. Rather touching letters from the initial wave of German infantry spoke proudly of how moved the villagers were at their liberation in the Ukraine. Then the SS moved in, the gauleiters bled them and the regular troops were sucked into a mire of atrocity owing to partisan activity. But Russia never fully forgave part of the Ukraine for welcoming what it initially saw as a liberation.

But Ukraine never forgave Russia for two disastrous cataclysmic famines, one in the 30's and one under two misguided five year plans in the 50's. Food still got shipped to Moscow, but many died in the provinces.

It's weird that Russia always fears people invading and killing them, but seem to welcome dictators even more adept at bumping off their own people in a rule of terror.

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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 21:52 
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lasermink wrote:
Kern wrote:
Unfortunately, the general assessment of Putin's strategy is that he fears NATO, the EU, and the west are encircling and threatening Russia, and convincing bordering countries to look westwards rather than eastwards.

Is he wrong? I am not defending Putin's choice in resorting to military force, but isn't there some truth to us having attempted to undermine Russia's influence for decades, and now it has backfired spectacularly and everyone is busy washing their hands and blaming everything on him?

No, not so much. We're not in the cold war, we're not trying to site nukes near his border so we can blow him up, and he doesn't have any god given right to a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, and the fact that his reaction to Eastern European democracies waiting to cosy up to the EU (and (a) why the hell wouldn't they and (b) why the hell shouldn't they) is to fucking invade them suggests that every single bit of the blame here lies on his side of the fence. 1960s responses to 2010s problems is not sane, let alone sensible.

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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 22:14 
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Mr Kissyfur wrote:
lasermink wrote:
Kern wrote:
Unfortunately, the general assessment of Putin's strategy is that he fears NATO, the EU, and the west are encircling and threatening Russia, and convincing bordering countries to look westwards rather than eastwards.

Is he wrong? I am not defending Putin's choice in resorting to military force, but isn't there some truth to us having attempted to undermine Russia's influence for decades, and now it has backfired spectacularly and everyone is busy washing their hands and blaming everything on him?

No, not so much. We're not in the cold war, we're not trying to site nukes near his border so we can blow him up, and he doesn't have any god given right to a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, and the fact that his reaction to Eastern European democracies waiting to cosy up to the EU (and (a) why the hell wouldn't they and (b) why the hell shouldn't they) is to fucking invade them suggests that every single bit of the blame here lies on his side of the fence. 1960s responses to 2010s problems is not sane, let alone sensible.

First of all, it's not as simple as every state having 100% of the population fully behind the idea of turning their back to Russia, especially in Ukraine. Secondly, if it works, it works. Just because we have moved on to a different set of excuses for our invasions doesn't mean he's insane, that's just stupid.


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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 22:25 
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lasermink wrote:
Mr Kissyfur wrote:
lasermink wrote:
Kern wrote:
Unfortunately, the general assessment of Putin's strategy is that he fears NATO, the EU, and the west are encircling and threatening Russia, and convincing bordering countries to look westwards rather than eastwards.

Is he wrong? I am not defending Putin's choice in resorting to military force, but isn't there some truth to us having attempted to undermine Russia's influence for decades, and now it has backfired spectacularly and everyone is busy washing their hands and blaming everything on him?

No, not so much. We're not in the cold war, we're not trying to site nukes near his border so we can blow him up, and he doesn't have any god given right to a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, and the fact that his reaction to Eastern European democracies waiting to cosy up to the EU (and (a) why the hell wouldn't they and (b) why the hell shouldn't they) is to fucking invade them suggests that every single bit of the blame here lies on his side of the fence. 1960s responses to 2010s problems is not sane, let alone sensible.

First of all, it's not as simple as every state having 100% of the population fully behind the idea of turning their back to Russia, especially in Ukraine.


What? What the fuck does that matter? At what percentage of the population agreeing or disagreeing with anything does a light go on saying "IT IS NOW OK FOR RUSSIA TO INVADE AND KILL PEOPLE".
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Secondly, if it works, it works. Just because we have moved on to a different set of excuses for our invasions doesn't mean he's insane, that's just stupid.

"Our" invasions? Sorry, who have we invaded in Eastern Europe?

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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 22:37 
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Mr Kissyfur wrote:
lasermink wrote:
Mr Kissyfur wrote:
lasermink wrote:
Kern wrote:
Unfortunately, the general assessment of Putin's strategy is that he fears NATO, the EU, and the west are encircling and threatening Russia, and convincing bordering countries to look westwards rather than eastwards.

Is he wrong? I am not defending Putin's choice in resorting to military force, but isn't there some truth to us having attempted to undermine Russia's influence for decades, and now it has backfired spectacularly and everyone is busy washing their hands and blaming everything on him?

No, not so much. We're not in the cold war, we're not trying to site nukes near his border so we can blow him up, and he doesn't have any god given right to a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, and the fact that his reaction to Eastern European democracies waiting to cosy up to the EU (and (a) why the hell wouldn't they and (b) why the hell shouldn't they) is to fucking invade them suggests that every single bit of the blame here lies on his side of the fence. 1960s responses to 2010s problems is not sane, let alone sensible.

First of all, it's not as simple as every state having 100% of the population fully behind the idea of turning their back to Russia, especially in Ukraine.


What? What the fuck does that matter? At what percentage of the population agreeing or disagreeing with anything does a light go on saying "IT IS NOW OK FOR RUSSIA TO INVADE AND KILL PEOPLE".
Quote:
Secondly, if it works, it works. Just because we have moved on to a different set of excuses for our invasions doesn't mean he's insane, that's just stupid.

"Our" invasions? Sorry, who have we invaded in Eastern Europe?

I never argued that it was OK, only that the fact he invaded doesn't automatically imply he's insane. Our leaders have also been invading countries to protect their own interests, making up bullshit stories to defend it. I don't see how it affects my argument whether it took place in Eastern Europe or not.


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 Post subject: Re: WW3 a go-go with topless Putin?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 22:49 
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Ah, ok. I see what you mean. You're still wrong.

I was listening to Putin on Radio 4 this morning. Either he genuinely believes the bollocks he's coming out with, in which case he's insane, or he is trying to fix 2010s problems with the old 1960s-80s approach which is also, as the saying goes, insane (as Einstein had it, insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.)

Also, whilst we've had a few misguided invasions in the last 10 years, I'm not aware that we've actually annexed anywhere. When we've invaded places recently, it's been to install democracies, however shite they ended up being. That's the exact opposite of what Putin's up to - he's taking these places over (e.g. East Georgia, Crimea, soon Eastern Ukraine) and keeping them as his own toys. There is no moral equivalence whatsoever.

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