Election night thread

romanista · **Posted:** Tue Nov 04, 2008 9:55

American beer has been bought
Hotdogs

Even the stars and strips may enter my home today..

Yes they can

MaliA · **Posted:** Tue Nov 04, 2008 9:56

McCain is going to win.

myp · **Posted:** Tue Nov 04, 2008 9:57

I hear he's chipping away at Obama's lead.

GazChap · **Posted:** Tue Nov 04, 2008 10:08

myoptika wrote:

I hear he's chipping away at Obama's lead.

Word has it that he's been working out in preparation for the election and is now only 5% fat.

myp · **Posted:** Tue Nov 04, 2008 10:13

He's been greeting every single one of the electorate with a tiny hand gesture - he's calling it the microwave.

MrChris · **Joined:** 1st Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 30498

His suit seems to be one big crinkle - cut as well as it is, it's not hanging well on him any more.

Dudley · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 8679

These puns are hilarious. I fried with laughter.

Derek The Halls · **Joined:** 31st Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 3742

McCain spammed me this morning, asking me to vote for him. I'm not entirely sure why.

DavPaz · **Joined:** 27th Jun, 2008 **Posts:** 38484

I am convinced that, yes, McCain is indeed going to win. Imagine Hamilton and Obama in the same week? The KKK would combust. Nah, can't see Obama doing any better then Kerry did last time.

MrChris · **Joined:** 1st Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 30498

The polls suggest Obama is going to win big stylee, of course.

DavPaz · **Joined:** 27th Jun, 2008 **Posts:** 38484

Polls are rarely accurate.

Quick Poll - If you found a wallet with a shit-load of cash in it, would you take it to a police station? Most people would probably say yes, but who would really? Hmmm?

myp · **Posted:** Tue Nov 04, 2008 10:35

GazChap would, because he's a gimp.

Zardoz · **Posted:** Tue Nov 04, 2008 10:39

davpaz wrote:

Polls are rarely accurate.

Quick Poll - If you found a wallet with a shit-load of cash in it, would you take it to a police station? Most people would probably say yes, but who would really? Hmmm?

I'd take the wallet to the police station after I'd took the cash out.

Finders fee init.

GazChap · **Posted:** Tue Nov 04, 2008 10:39

And in fact, have done

MrChris · **Joined:** 1st Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 30498

davpaz wrote:

Polls are rarely accurate.

Ooooh, that gets a big fat [citation needed], sonny.

If political polls were generally inaccurate, you can bet your arse that the politicians wouldn't waste their precious donation money on them.

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49232

It's well known that there are 'at-the-polling-station' factors that affect the realiability of polls, but they are still reasonably good as a guideline.

However, ask Kinnock or Gore whether you should rely on poll results...

DavPaz · **Joined:** 27th Jun, 2008 **Posts:** 38484

I admit, I have no reference. My point is, it's easy for people to shout "GO OBABMA!" with a camera pointed at them but in the privacy of the booth... personal prejudice is free to blossom.

Dudley · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 8679

The polls were all but accurate last time, they almost certainly will be this.

Quote:

I admit, I have no reference. My point is, it's easy for people to shout "GO OBABMA!" with a camera pointed at them but in the privacy of the booth... personal prejudice is free to blossom.

Ah the urban myth of the Bradley effect. It's made no different in 2 decades of elections but this time it will.

DavPaz · **Joined:** 27th Jun, 2008 **Posts:** 38484

The Bradley effect... yep that sounds like the reference I was missing. Cheers Dudley

myp · **Posted:** Tue Nov 04, 2008 10:50

A white hole?

chinnyhill10 · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 15695

davpaz wrote:

Polls are rarely accurate.

Quick Poll - If you found a wallet with a shit-load of cash in it, would you take it to a police station? Most people would probably say yes, but who would really? Hmmm?

A wallet, yes I would.

I did find a small wad of notes once in a service station carpark once. I kept it as (a) I didn't think the staff would be honest enough and (b) the owner was probably 60 miles down the motorway by then anyway.

DavPaz · **Joined:** 27th Jun, 2008 **Posts:** 38484

I once lost a small wad of notes in a service station car park. That was for the kids' medicine. You monster.

Dudley · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 8679

davpaz wrote:

The Bradley effect... yep that sounds like the reference I was missing. Cheers Dudley

The point being that it's been decades since it had any measureable effect and then is even a reverse effect where people don't want to admit they'll "vote for the darkie" but then actually do.

DavPaz · **Joined:** 27th Jun, 2008 **Posts:** 38484

In that case, bring on the bradley effect. Obabma stands no chance in the south and the bible belt, but if he can turn enough people in the marginal states then we might see a change for the better.

*crosses fingers*

Kern · **Posted:** Tue Nov 04, 2008 11:11

Well, in 1992 we had people not admitting to supporting the Tories.

I'm very tempted to stay up tonight; not sure at the moment. I'm currently going to predict Obama getting 320-330 electoral votes.

Obligatory Animaniacs clip:

< http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vvy0wRLD5s8 >

MrChris · **Joined:** 1st Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 30498

davpaz wrote:

Obabma stands no chance in the south and the bible belt,

Are you sure about that? I could have sworn the telly box was saying he was ahead in the polls in several southern states, which was quite surprising given that they must all be wondering why an escaped slave is on the TV.

Kern · **Posted:** Tue Nov 04, 2008 11:15

And standing as the candidate for the historic party of slavery.

DavPaz · **Joined:** 27th Jun, 2008 **Posts:** 38484

Kern wrote:

And standing as the candidate for the historic party of slavery.

Shh, don't remind them!

MrChris · **Joined:** 1st Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 30498

Kern wrote:

And standing as the candidate for the historic party of slavery.

Yes, the apparent swapping of political stances by the Republicans and Democrats some 150*
years ago is quite amusing.

*Fuck knows - I didn't study American history.

DavPaz · **Joined:** 27th Jun, 2008 **Posts:** 38484

Is it safe to say that most of the Black voters will vote for him? What sort of %-is that guaranteed?

Dudley · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 8679

He's ahead in Florida, New Mexico and North Carolina of states you might consider the south and very, very close in Georgia.

But no, that's not where his votes are coming from. He's currently on 353 EVs if the polls are 100% accurate, 311 if you only count states where he's ahead by more than 5%.

4 years ago today, Kerry had 252, 200 if you only counted ones > 5%.

DavPaz · **Joined:** 27th Jun, 2008 **Posts:** 38484

well, that's quite an advantage. Go BARACK!

Kern · **Posted:** Tue Nov 04, 2008 12:02

And the question we're all asking is:

How will the Amish swing?

< http://www.slate.com/id/2203700/ >

CraigGrannell · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 1639

Dudley wrote:

He's ahead in Florida

If he wins Florida, it's pretty much game over, and that state's always down to the wire. Looking at 538, Obama's win percentage is now up to an incredible 98.1%, but the EV count has been steadily dropping.

The thing that could win this electron for Obama is actually Republicans switching or recommending voters switch. This quote from Wick Allison, former publisher of The National Review:

Quote:

Conservatives are skeptical of abstract theories and utopian schemes, doubtful that government is wiser than its citizens, and always ready to test any political program against actual results. Liberalism always seemed to me to be a system of “oughts.” We ought to do this or that because it’s the right thing to do, regardless of whether it works or not. It is a doctrine based on intentions, not results, on feeling good rather than doing good.

But today it is so-called conservatives who are cemented to political programs when they clearly don’t work. The Bush tax cuts—a solution for which there was no real problem and which he refused to end even when the nation went to war—led to huge deficit spending and a $3 trillion growth in the federal debt. Facing this, John McCain pumps his “conservative” credentials by proposing even bigger tax cuts. Meanwhile, a movement that once fought for limited government has presided over the greatest growth of government in our history. That is not conservatism; it is profligacy using conservatism as a mask.

I'm still sceptical that Obama can take it, even with the polling evidence. My guess was that he needed to be about ten points ahead to be a sure thing, and he's not quite there. Still, I'll be very happy to wake up to a confirmed Obama presidency (and also intrigued to see how Biden does, what with him being almost entirely absent from our news). If only we had the same kind of possible 'change' waiting in the wings, but ours appears to be a switch back to a Tory government in the near future.

Dudley · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 8679

Oh it's by no means sure, but we're at the point McCain needs to break records to win.

CraigGrannell · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 1639

Dudley wrote:

Oh it's by no means sure, but we're at the point McCain needs to break records to win.

Yep, but I'd sooner be a pessimist happy upon seeing the results than an optimist crushed like a bug!

Kern · **Posted:** Tue Nov 04, 2008 12:20

The current polls for the Senate look interesting too, suggesting the democrats could rise to 58. Not sure how the House is looking at the moment.

Also- Al Franken for Minnesota? How did I miss that one?

Kern · **Posted:** Tue Nov 04, 2008 12:21

CraigGrannell wrote:

Yep, but I'd sooner be a pessimist happy upon seeing the results than an optimist crushed like a bug!

That's why I secretly want McCain to win. I know I won't be disappointed by him.

MrChris · **Joined:** 1st Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 30498

I loved the comment from some Republican bigwig saying that it would be undemocratic to vote in Obama as then there'd be democrats in charge in the Senate, Congress and the White House.

As if any Republican wouldn't be spunking themselves at the thought of such control.

Kern · **Posted:** Tue Nov 04, 2008 12:24

That's almost an admission of defeat.

'We know Obama's going to win, but don't let that stop you voting GOP elsewhere'.

Mr Russell · **Joined:** 6th Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 12272

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7459669.stm will let you stream BBC News 24 if you're away from a TV today.

Rodafowa · **Posted:** Tue Nov 04, 2008 12:55

Kern wrote:

CraigGrannell wrote:

Yep, but I'd sooner be a pessimist happy upon seeing the results than an optimist crushed like a bug!

That's why I secretly want McCain to win. I know I won't be disappointed by him.

Also: the possibility of worldwide Fallout 3 live-action role-play.

romanista · **Posted:** Tue Nov 04, 2008 14:02

Craster wrote:

It's well known that there are 'at-the-polling-station' factors that affect the realiability of polls, but they are still reasonably good as a guideline.

However, ask Kinnock or Gore whether you should rely on poll results...

gore was actually more down in the polls than on election night (where he won the popular vote, remember)

romanista · **Posted:** Tue Nov 04, 2008 14:07

Kern wrote:

The current polls for the Senate look interesting too, suggesting the democrats could rise to 58. Not sure how the House is looking at the moment.
Also- Al Franken for Minnesota? How did I miss that one?

58 though isn't that different from 53 or even from the current 49+2-49,as you need 60 to prevent that correcting/frustrating filibuster.

Squirt · **Joined:** 31st Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 6530

I love the term "filibuster" - it sounds like some sort of Fighter Command WWII slang

Wing Commander Fletchingly-Smythe wrote:

...then I pulled a double string-back, rolled out a filbuster and then watched him pancake into the drink. More gin?

I wonder how well McCain would be doing if he had stayed with his fairly moderate platform that he seems to have been doing for the last few years? I bet everyone was expecting him to choose a fairly safe and boring VP as well, rather than that scary winking loon.

Dudley · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 8679

Mr Chris wrote:

I loved the comment from some Republican bigwig saying that it would be undemocratic to vote in Obama as then there'd be democrats in charge in the Senate, Congress and the White House.

As if any Republican wouldn't be spunking themselves at the thought of such control.

And indeed did when it was a real possibility in 1996.

Dudley · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 8679

McCain apparently wanted Lieberman, which would imo have won him the election.

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49232

Everyone was saying that the VP choice was to ensure the support of the party core - but who else were they going to support? It's not like the NRA or the Christian Right were going to flock wholesale to Obama if he chose Liebermann, is it?

Plissken · **Posted:** Tue Nov 04, 2008 14:41

Dudley wrote:

McCain apparently wanted Lieberman, which would imo have won him the election.

No, I don't think it would. The main thing is that McCain has run a bad campaign. He went negative, having done nothing since wrapping up the nomination. He hasn't defined himself and let Obama paint him as "Four more years of Bush". He has been totally sunk by the financial meltdown.

However, the Obama campaign is a juggernaut. You've got thousands of volunteers on the ground and millions of tiny donations (<$200). Historians will look at the sheer organisation of the Obama campaign and marvel.

Joans · **Joined:** 31st Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 8648

I had a dream about this last night, but for some reason it was Palin vs McCain and Palin won. So that doesn't really count as a useful prediction for anyone, unless I woke up just before Palin ripped off her mask to reveal she was actually Obama underneath. ?:|

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Election night thread
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Be Excellent To Each Other

Election night thread Redemption is close

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Election night thread
Redemption is close