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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:10 
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Gogmagog

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Wouldn't the DUP really want a no border with the EU?

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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:10 
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Lonewolves wrote:
Grim... wrote:
People that understand - if this was a FPTP election, who would have won?

It was a FPTP election. Do you mean PR?


There's no single system of PR, but let's assume we're using the simplest and taking the UK as a single electoral area distributing seats strictly on percentage. The Tories would get 42.4% of the seats (274); Labour 40% (260). The Lib Dems would get 48 seats.

Other systems would allocate votes/seats differently and all have their own quirks.

So very different, and naturally people might behave differently under such circumstances.


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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:13 
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Lupine member

Joined: 27th Mar, 2008
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These are the Tories' new buddies:

https://twitter.com/Number10cat/status/ ... 1454678016


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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:14 
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Kern wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:
Grim... wrote:
People that understand - if this was a FPTP election, who would have won?

It was a FPTP election. Do you mean PR?


There's no single system of PR, but let's assume we're using the simplest and taking the UK as a single electoral area distributing seats strictly on percentage. The Tories would get 42.4% of the seats (274); Labour 40% (260). The Lib Dems would get 48 seats.

Other systems would allocate votes/seats differently and all have their own quirks.

So very different, and naturally people might behave differently under such circumstances.

Yeah, I'm aware of the different systems, but as Grim... was struggling with the basics I wanted to keep it simple. ;)


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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:22 
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I've just noticed that Labour got the correct number of seats (ish) to match its vote share.


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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:32 
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Lonewolves wrote:


Oh, so they're the nasty party. ;)


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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:33 
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Lupine member

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Kern wrote:
I've just noticed that Labour got the correct number of seats (ish) to match its vote share.

Yep, which is why even though Labour didn't win, to get 40% when the polls showed a double digit lead for the Tories even a couple of weeks back, it's an astonishing achievement.


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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:39 
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Lonewolves wrote:
Kern wrote:
I've just noticed that Labour got the correct number of seats (ish) to match its vote share.

Yep, which is why even though Labour didn't win, to get 40% when the polls showed a double digit lead for the Tories even a couple of weeks back, it's an astonishing achievement.



My seat is one of the tory's safest ones, had a 16,000 majority. What was interesting to see was that Labour took all of the UKIP votes from the last election giving them a gain of 13%.


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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:45 
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Gogmagog

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Lonewolves wrote:
Swivel-eyed Nicky Morgan calling for the PM to go in the "long term" already. Say what you like about the Tories but they're much better at getting rid of their unwanted leaders than Labour :DD


viewtopic.php?style=26&p=911073#p911073

50 weeks ago.

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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:54 
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Thanks

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May speaking at No 10, she now sounds like an actual robot reading out lines.

EDIT - 'Friends and allies' in the DUP. Nice friends you've got there, Theresa.

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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:55 
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A somewhat underwhelming speech from Mrs May delivered with little passion.

'The promise of Brexit': who comes up with this shit?


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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 13:00 
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Isn't that lovely?

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She didn't acknowledge anything that's happened in the last 15 hours! She basically just said "brexit keeps on keeping on"

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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 13:00 
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MaliA wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:
Swivel-eyed Nicky Morgan calling for the PM to go in the "long term" already. Say what you like about the Tories but they're much better at getting rid of their unwanted leaders than Labour :DD


viewtopic.php?style=26&p=911073#p911073

50 weeks ago.

She wouldn't stand a chance. It's Boris, Rudd or someone like Stephen Crabb.


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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 13:06 
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INFINITE POWAH

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It sounded like a speech given by an iPhone.

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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 13:11 
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Rock steady gaze

Joined: 23rd Nov, 2008
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MrChris wrote:
It sounded like a speech given by an iPhone.


That, I suspect, is a big part of the problem all along.
No charisma = serious disadvantage. Corbyn might well have completely barking policies and a very tenuous grasp of economics (IMO) but he has charm and considerable resilience, not to mention absolute authenticity and, by and large, honesty. This stuff matters.

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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 13:12 
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I don't know I felt quite reassured. I think she has the strength and stability to make sure that we're definitely all still fucked.


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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 13:18 
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Cavey wrote:
MrChris wrote:
It sounded like a speech given by an iPhone.


That, I suspect, is a big part of the problem all along.
No charisma = serious disadvantage. Corbyn might well have completely barking policies and a very tenuous grasp of economics (IMO) but he has charm and considerable resilience, not to mention absolute authenticity and, by and large, honesty. This stuff matters.



He also reminds most people of their grandad :DD


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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 13:21 
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You would have thought she'd have shown a bit of contrition and a willingness to reach out to those who have voted against her party this week. But no, full steam ahead and ignore everything that's happened in the last 8 weeks.


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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 13:22 
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Lonewolves wrote:
You would have thought she'd have shown a bit of contrition and a willingness to reach out to those who have voted against her party this week. But no, full steam ahead and ignore everything that's happened in the last 8 weeks.


It was just a flesh wound!


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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 13:23 
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Thanks

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I'm content now, I'm going to the pub.

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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 13:23 
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Gogmagog

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Cavey wrote:
MrChris wrote:
It sounded like a speech given by an iPhone.


That, I suspect, is a big part of the problem all along.
No charisma = serious disadvantage. Corbyn might well have completely barking policies and a very tenuous grasp of economics (IMO) but he has charm and considerable resilience, not to mention absolute authenticity and, by and large, honesty. This stuff matters.

P davies says:

http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/n ... _campaign/



Quote:
"The issue is that the Conservative Party, nationally, have made a pig’s ear of the campaign.

"What Jeremy Corbyn has done has successfully done is to tap into people's weariness of austerity.

“If this campaign has taught us one thing is that it has nothing to do with Brexit, but lots of people are tired of austerity.

“If you knock on people’s doors like I have, you know what people are talking about.

"I hope that my further term is longer than my third term was.

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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 13:29 
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Heavy Metal Tough Guy

Joined: 31st Mar, 2008
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Ahh yes, the deficit and austerity! Remember the good ol' days when that was the singular most important political issue and we all argued about it endlessly! Thank goodness that was all fixed, we're paying off the debt and we need never think of it again ( check this )


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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 13:48 
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Tories and DUP won't work as well as she hopes. May is toppled. We have another election. Maybe another hung parliament. Time for Brexit negotiations decreases.

It's going to be very interesting


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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 13:54 
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Rock steady gaze

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I agree about May, but the DUP have been propping up weak Tory governments for a long time and I don't see that changing, short term at least. They don't want a hard Brexit collapse/Corbyn's in Single Market at any price stance, even less than the Tories themselves. That they've struck the deal within minutes, pretty much, probsbly tells its own story.

I do agree that a GE within a year or so is quite likely though, which, if competently handled the Tories could win. Especially as they now know what they're up against and time to galvanise, not alienate older voters.

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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 13:59 
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But will the more tolerant, pro-LGBT wing of the Tory party rebel against this new alliance? That seems feasible.

I'm going to predict another election and hung parliament, but Tories and Lab to be neck and neck, maybe even Labour slightly ahead, especially if Boris is in charge


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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 14:05 

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TheVision wrote:
I've just read that a candidate in Walsall lost his seat after 38 years. He'd been there since 1979.

Amazing! The longest I've had a job is 5 years....


His vote share actually increased by about 4%, but the UKIP vote dropped 16% and the Con vote increased 15.9%, so they swept up the ukip losses.

The labour majority vote of our seat increased significantly, on the other hand. Mind you, I'm not entirely sure what 'north' Walsall encompasses. If it's near Brownhills, etc, it's quite a different mindset from around here.

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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 14:06 
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Gogmagog

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Lonewolves wrote:
But will the more tolerant, pro-LGBT wing of the Tory party rebel against this new alliance? That seems feasible.

I'm going to predict another election and hung parliament, but Tories and Lab to be neck and neck, maybe even Labour slightly ahead, especially if Boris is in charge


viewtopic.php?style=26&p=908030#p908030

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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 14:10 
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MaliA wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:
But will the more tolerant, pro-LGBT wing of the Tory party rebel against this new alliance? That seems feasible.

I'm going to predict another election and hung parliament, but Tories and Lab to be neck and neck, maybe even Labour slightly ahead, especially if Boris is in charge


viewtopic.php?style=26&p=908030#p908030

Do you have all these bookmarked or something?


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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 14:17 
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Rock steady gaze

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Lonewolves wrote:
But will the more tolerant, pro-LGBT wing of the Tory party rebel against this new alliance? That seems feasible.


If it really is true what people are saying about the DUP then a sizable chunk of my conscience would love that to be the case. My guess, though, is that every Tory MP to a man and woman is thanking their lucky stars that they're even still in power *at all* and, short term at least, mouths will be welded shut. It's cynical I know, but I just can't see it any other way, the horses are well and truly scared, here, and were it not for the Scots JC would be going to the Palace about now. We came within a fag paper's breadth.

On the other hand, of course, there's the issue of a divisive Leadership contest which surely must, now, come. Enough for the govt. to lose a No Confidence Motion at some stage, if in dissarray? Possibly.

Quote:
I'm going to predict another election and hung parliament, but Tories and Lab to be neck and neck, maybe even Labour slightly ahead, especially if Boris is in charge


Notwithstanding the first part of my post I'm fairly done with predictions I think. :D
For me, I don't think the Brits like a hung parliament much, so, provided the Tories don't do totally unnecessary, ridiculous shit like telling all the old duffers there're doomed in terms of social costs and winter fuel (when the election was supposed to be able Brexit :rolleyes: ), and as against the very real spectre of a hard Left Labour government (which hardly anyone thought a plausible outcome), I personally think the Tories would win fairly convincingly. But seriously, what do I know. :)

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 Post subject: Re: General Election 2017
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 14:20 
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Sky sources saying DUP are saying no deal has been done and discussions are ongoing. Has May jumped the gun here? It's obviously looking like a minority govt with C&S from DUP. They'll ask for loads more money for NI of course too.

Very shaky if so. I bet it won't last six months.


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