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 Post subject: Re: Happy New year beex
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 16:23 
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Jem wrote:
Cavey wrote:
Mind you, I'm in the building game and I can say with certainty that, following an *incredibly* brief post-Brexit blip lasting a month or less, the Contruction Sector is booming. Just look at the massive spike in Persimmon shares, and others, only yesterday.


Didn't house builder type shares plummet around the type of the referendum or am I thinking of something else? How are they now compared to back then? (Genuine interest, not leading to some intellectual conclusion of any sort ;) )


Well, I'm no expert nor wheeler-dealer in shares (hah!), but quick googling Persimmon reveals a big Brexit crash and subsequent recovery to at, or very close to pre-Brexit levels. So as far as the Market is concerned, they appear to be pricing Brexit as "meh, so what".

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 Post subject: Re: Happy New year beex
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 16:42 
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sneering elitist

Joined: 25th May, 2014
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Cavey wrote:
Jem wrote:
Cavey wrote:
Mind you, I'm in the building game and I can say with certainty that, following an *incredibly* brief post-Brexit blip lasting a month or less, the Contruction Sector is booming. Just look at the massive spike in Persimmon shares, and others, only yesterday.


Didn't house builder type shares plummet around the type of the referendum or am I thinking of something else? How are they now compared to back then? (Genuine interest, not leading to some intellectual conclusion of any sort ;) )


Well, I'm no expert nor wheeler-dealer in shares (hah!), but quick googling Persimmon reveals a big Brexit crash and subsequent recovery to at, or very close to pre-Brexit levels. So as far as the Market is concerned, they appear to be pricing Brexit as "meh, so what".


Ta :)

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 Post subject: Re: Happy New year beex
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 17:04 
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Sleepyhead

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
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Jem wrote:
Cavey wrote:
Jem wrote:
Cavey wrote:
Mind you, I'm in the building game and I can say with certainty that, following an *incredibly* brief post-Brexit blip lasting a month or less, the Contruction Sector is booming. Just look at the massive spike in Persimmon shares, and others, only yesterday.


Didn't house builder type shares plummet around the type of the referendum or am I thinking of something else? How are they now compared to back then? (Genuine interest, not leading to some intellectual conclusion of any sort ;) )


Well, I'm no expert nor wheeler-dealer in shares (hah!), but quick googling Persimmon reveals a big Brexit crash and subsequent recovery to at, or very close to pre-Brexit levels. So as far as the Market is concerned, they appear to be pricing Brexit as "meh, so what".


Ta :)


A quick Google reveals that the stock prices were:

Pre-Brexit - 2098
End of year - 1760 (more than 17% of value lost)
Today, following government announcement of more homes to be built - 1934 (still around 8% down)
Rough price expected had Brexit not happened had Persimmon moved in the same direction as their long term trend line - 2400 (so they are over 19% down on what they would have expected).

So, even on a good day, not a great position.

That's not to say that I think Brexit is killing housing or anything. I would have thought it to be particularly resilient to be honest. We still have massive demand outstripping supply by a considerable margin. I would expect builders to do well; we're not just going to boot millions of people out of the country and suddenly have a huge housing surplus.

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 Post subject: Re: Happy New year beex
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 17:06 
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Curiosity wrote:
we're not just going to boot millions of people out of the country and suddenly have a huge housing surplus.

*cue Brexiteers in unison* AWWWWWWWWWWW

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 Post subject: Re: Happy New year beex
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 17:09 
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Joined: 31st Mar, 2008
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There might be some worry about labour - I'm sure plenty of the people on building sites are from the EU.


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 Post subject: Re: Happy New year beex
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 17:21 
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Curiosity wrote:
Jem wrote:
Cavey wrote:
Jem wrote:
Cavey wrote:
Mind you, I'm in the building game and I can say with certainty that, following an *incredibly* brief post-Brexit blip lasting a month or less, the Contruction Sector is booming. Just look at the massive spike in Persimmon shares, and others, only yesterday.


Didn't house builder type shares plummet around the type of the referendum or am I thinking of something else? How are they now compared to back then? (Genuine interest, not leading to some intellectual conclusion of any sort ;) )


Well, I'm no expert nor wheeler-dealer in shares (hah!), but quick googling Persimmon reveals a big Brexit crash and subsequent recovery to at, or very close to pre-Brexit levels. So as far as the Market is concerned, they appear to be pricing Brexit as "meh, so what".


Ta :)


A quick Google reveals that the stock prices were:

Pre-Brexit - 2098
End of year - 1760 (more than 17% of value lost)
Today, following government announcement of more homes to be built - 1934 (still around 8% down)
Rough price expected had Brexit not happened had Persimmon moved in the same direction as their long term trend line - 2400 (so they are over 19% down on what they would have expected).

So, even on a good day, not a great position.

That's not to say that I think Brexit is killing housing or anything. I would have thought it to be particularly resilient to be honest. We still have massive demand outstripping supply by a considerable margin. I would expect builders to do well; we're not just going to boot millions of people out of the country and suddenly have a huge housing surplus.


But that's a ridiculous analysis.
Taking the absolute peak that occurred the very flipping day before Brexit and saying that's your benchmark is pretty daft, and hardly objective now, is it? Jem's me asked a straight, unloaded, friendly question (breath of fresh air) and wanted a straight answer, which I've attempted to give. Clearly, you're not doing that because, as per, you have your agenda, Curio. :roll:

For anyone who's actually interested, here's a link to the Persimmon share price time history graph. Click the 1-year tab.

https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid ... %20history

Any fair-minded person would have to conclude that the current share price is pretty typical, or very close to the pre-Brexit price (and actually higher for some periods). They started the year with a share price of 1969, and, a year later, they're now on 1937 - yowzers. big deal. :insincere:

Just to be clear (again ;) ), I have no agenda here since I was - and still am - anti Brexit. However, I'm interested in facts, not distorted spin to suit a given political argument (either way), and I suspect Jem is too. Besides which, I work in Construction as I've said, and it's booming from where I am sitting.

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 Post subject: Re: Happy New year beex
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 17:26 
Filthy Junkie Bitch

Joined: 17th Dec, 2008
Posts: 8293
Or click the five year tab and see how the long term trend stops dead in the past year.

If this was a global warming chart you'd say it was proof positive that it's stopped.


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 Post subject: Re: Happy New year beex
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 17:30 
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ApplePieOfDestiny wrote:
Or click the five year tab and see how the long term trend stops dead in the past year.

If this was a global warming chart you'd say it was proof positive that it's stopped.

:DD

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 Post subject: Re: Happy New year beex
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 17:31 
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ApplePieOfDestiny wrote:
Or click the five year tab and see how the long term trend stops dead in the past year.

If this was a global warming chart you'd say it was proof positive that it's stopped.


Um, I fail to see the relevance of 5-years anything, since we're talking about the effects of Brexit which was June this year btw.... :roll:

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 Post subject: Re: Happy New year beex
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 17:31 
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Lonewolves wrote:
ApplePieOfDestiny wrote:
Or click the five year tab and see how the long term trend stops dead in the past year.

If this was a global warming chart you'd say it was proof positive that it's stopped.

:DD


:boots: :insincere:

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 Post subject: Re: Happy New year beex
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 17:40 
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Joined: 27th Mar, 2008
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Cavey wrote:
...Brexit which was June this year btw.... :roll:

:roll:

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 Post subject: Re: Happy New year beex
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 17:41 
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Joined: 23rd Nov, 2008
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Zardoz wrote:
Cavey wrote:
...Brexit which was June this year btw.... :roll:

:roll:


True. :)

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 Post subject: Re: Happy New year beex
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 17:51 
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Sleepyhead

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 27343
Location: Kidbrooke
Cavey wrote:
Curiosity wrote:
Jem wrote:
Cavey wrote:
Jem wrote:
Cavey wrote:
Mind you, I'm in the building game and I can say with certainty that, following an *incredibly* brief post-Brexit blip lasting a month or less, the Contruction Sector is booming. Just look at the massive spike in Persimmon shares, and others, only yesterday.


Didn't house builder type shares plummet around the type of the referendum or am I thinking of something else? How are they now compared to back then? (Genuine interest, not leading to some intellectual conclusion of any sort ;) )


Well, I'm no expert nor wheeler-dealer in shares (hah!), but quick googling Persimmon reveals a big Brexit crash and subsequent recovery to at, or very close to pre-Brexit levels. So as far as the Market is concerned, they appear to be pricing Brexit as "meh, so what".


Ta :)


A quick Google reveals that the stock prices were:

Pre-Brexit - 2098
End of year - 1760 (more than 17% of value lost)
Today, following government announcement of more homes to be built - 1934 (still around 8% down)
Rough price expected had Brexit not happened had Persimmon moved in the same direction as their long term trend line - 2400 (so they are over 19% down on what they would have expected).

So, even on a good day, not a great position.

That's not to say that I think Brexit is killing housing or anything. I would have thought it to be particularly resilient to be honest. We still have massive demand outstripping supply by a considerable margin. I would expect builders to do well; we're not just going to boot millions of people out of the country and suddenly have a huge housing surplus.


But that's a ridiculous analysis.
Taking the absolute peak that occurred the very flipping day before Brexit and saying that's your benchmark is pretty daft, and hardly objective now, is it? Jem's me asked a straight, unloaded, friendly question (breath of fresh air) and wanted a straight answer, which I've attempted to give. Clearly, you're not doing that because, as per, you have your agenda, Curio. :roll:

For anyone who's actually interested, here's a link to the Persimmon share price time history graph. Click the 1-year tab.

https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid ... %20history

Any fair-minded person would have to conclude that the current share price is pretty typical, or very close to the pre-Brexit price (and actually higher for some periods). They started the year with a share price of 1969, and, a year later, they're now on 1937 - yowzers. big deal. :insincere:

Just to be clear (again ;) ), I have no agenda here since I was - and still am - anti Brexit. However, I'm interested in facts, not distorted spin to suit a given political argument (either way), and I suspect Jem is too. Besides which, I work in Construction as I've said, and it's booming from where I am sitting.


It's not a ridiculous analysis by any stretch of the imagination.

I am giving multiple data points, both on a long and short term basis, including ones specifically around the time you state. You are cherry picking specific ones and coming to odd conclusions, the foremost one being that a loss in value of a firm is somehow a good thing? Despite them growing by 350 per share for the previous four years.

The past year they have clearly massively underperformed, and this is very obviously due to the result of Brexir. That's very, very simple financials.

I really don't have an agenda. I want everything to be fine. My life is a lot simpler and better if Brexit works and we are all more prosperous. I will happily be as wrong as I was on Trump's chances or on Farage being elected in Thanet. I just think that we shouldn't say "Well, we used to have significant growth but now we don't and that's a good sign" is madness, and unhelpful.

I'm glad your business is doing well. In addition to wanting the economy to work and grow, I want there to be more houses to try and level out the insane housing market. I'm totally on your side with that. I just think that we should wait for actual growth and results rather than celebrate getting somewhere back on an even keel (which in itself is obviously good; it's just disingenuous to suggest that there was no effect this year).

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 Post subject: Re: Happy New year beex
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 18:17 
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Probably worth trying to stick to what was actually asked, I'd say, rather than answer a question that nobody asked (5-year share prices/trends), then put a bunch of condescending words into the mouth of a guy who freely admitted from the off to knowing nothing about shares and suchlike, and was just trying to be friendly/helpful.

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 Post subject: Re: Happy New year beex
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 18:32 
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Wow

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 Post subject: Re: Happy New year beex
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 18:40 
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Sleepyhead

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
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Cavey wrote:
Probably worth trying to stick to what was actually asked, I'd say, rather than answer a question that nobody asked (5-year share prices/trends), then put a bunch of condescending words into the mouth of a guy who freely admitted from the off to knowing nothing about shares and suchlike, and was just trying to be friendly/helpful.


Sorry if I came across as aggressive or trying to catch you out or similar. But tetchy today for various reasons. I just get infuriated by the tabloid press at the moment boasting of how everything is perfect and how Brexit has made the pound stronger, the economy leaner and everything perfect (despite it not having even happened yet).

The jump in share price of construction stuff and government is a positive thing and should receive a positive reaction. I just think it's important to set it in context.

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 Post subject: Re: Happy New year beex
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 18:46 
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That's fine Curio, appreciated. Sorry if you're having a shit time. :)

I was genuinely just trying to answer Jem's question (my own take on it), certainly not spinning it one way or the other. Don't forget also, that as it goes, I'm far from enthusiastic about Brexit - to say the least. But that doesn't mean we can't question the pre-poll analysis and predictions (of both sides) now, in the light of stuff actually playing out.

Anyway, have a nice weekend mate.

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 Post subject: Re: Happy New year beex
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 19:00 
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Sleepyhead

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Cavey wrote:
That's fine Curio, appreciated. Sorry if you're having a shit time. :)

I was genuinely just trying to answer Jem's question (my own take on it), certainly not spinning it one way or the other. Don't forget also, that as it goes, I'm far from enthusiastic about Brexit - to say the least. But that doesn't mean we can't question the pre-poll analysis and predictions (of both sides) now, in the light of stuff actually playing out.

Anyway, have a nice weekend mate.


You too.

I agree we need to keep questioning and assessing things. Predictions of the country's total demise are as absurd as the bus slogans on the other side.

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 Post subject: Re: Happy New year beex
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 19:16 
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There's probably no god after all.


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 Post subject: Re: Happy New year beex
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 19:19 
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Also we're all sliding inexorable t'wards the heat death of the universe.

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 Post subject: Re: Happy New year beex
PostPosted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 5:58 
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There is, and He loves you.

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