Curiosity wrote:
Jem wrote:
Cavey wrote:
Jem wrote:
Cavey wrote:
Mind you, I'm in the building game and I can say with certainty that, following an *incredibly* brief post-Brexit blip lasting a month or less, the Contruction Sector is booming. Just look at the massive spike in Persimmon shares, and others, only yesterday.
Didn't house builder type shares plummet around the type of the referendum or am I thinking of something else? How are they now compared to back then? (Genuine interest, not leading to some intellectual conclusion of any sort
)
Well, I'm no expert nor wheeler-dealer in shares (hah!), but quick googling Persimmon reveals a big Brexit crash and subsequent recovery to at, or very close to pre-Brexit levels. So as far as the Market is concerned, they appear to be pricing Brexit as "meh, so what".
Ta
A quick Google reveals that the stock prices were:
Pre-Brexit - 2098
End of year - 1760 (more than 17% of value lost)
Today, following government announcement of more homes to be built - 1934 (still around 8% down)
Rough price expected had Brexit not happened had Persimmon moved in the same direction as their long term trend line - 2400 (so they are over 19% down on what they would have expected).
So, even on a good day, not a great position.
That's not to say that I think Brexit is killing housing or anything. I would have thought it to be particularly resilient to be honest. We still have massive demand outstripping supply by a considerable margin. I would expect builders to do well; we're not just going to boot millions of people out of the country and suddenly have a huge housing surplus.
But that's a ridiculous analysis.
Taking the absolute peak that occurred
the very flipping day before Brexit and saying that's your benchmark is pretty daft, and hardly objective now, is it? Jem's me asked a straight, unloaded, friendly question (breath of fresh air) and wanted a straight answer, which I've attempted to give. Clearly, you're not doing that because, as per, you have your agenda, Curio.
For anyone who's
actually interested, here's a link to the Persimmon share price time history graph. Click the 1-year tab.
https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid ... %20historyAny fair-minded person would have to conclude that the current share price is pretty typical, or very close to the pre-Brexit price (and actually higher for some periods). They started the year with a share price of 1969, and, a year later, they're now on 1937 - yowzers. big deal.
Just to be clear (again
), I have no agenda here since I was - and still am - anti Brexit. However, I'm interested in facts, not distorted spin to suit a given political argument (either way), and I suspect Jem is too. Besides which, I work in Construction as I've said, and it's booming from where I am sitting.
It's not a ridiculous analysis by any stretch of the imagination.
I am giving multiple data points, both on a long and short term basis, including ones specifically around the time you state. You are cherry picking specific ones and coming to odd conclusions, the foremost one being that a loss in value of a firm is somehow a good thing? Despite them growing by 350 per share for the previous four years.
The past year they have clearly massively underperformed, and this is very obviously due to the result of Brexir. That's very, very simple financials.
I really don't have an agenda. I want everything to be fine. My life is a lot simpler and better if Brexit works and we are all more prosperous. I will happily be as wrong as I was on Trump's chances or on Farage being elected in Thanet. I just think that we shouldn't say "Well, we used to have significant growth but now we don't and that's a good sign" is madness, and unhelpful.
I'm glad your business is doing well. In addition to wanting the economy to work and grow, I want there to be more houses to try and level out the insane housing market. I'm totally on your side with that. I just think that we should wait for actual growth and results rather than celebrate getting somewhere back on an even keel (which in itself is obviously good; it's just disingenuous to suggest that there was no effect this year).