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STILL among the best growth rates in the EU

Cavey wrote:

STILL among the best growth rates in the EU

Uh..

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... wth-league

Cavey wrote:

STILL among the best growth rates in the EU

Uh..

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... wth-league

People have had enough of experts, Cras.

endlessly pissing and moaning, talking everyone down, isn't the answer

I ignored the unemployment figure because we've had that argument before. You think zero hours contracts don't matter because they're jobs, myself and others disagree and think including them makes the unemployment figures disingenuous. There's no point retreading the same ground.

I've not cherry picked facts at all. Those two articles are Q1 and Q2 UK economic growth compared to the rest of Europe. When considering our current trajectory I can't possibly imagine more relevant data - and the Q2 figures linked by me above are after the upgrade that you mentioned.

You said we are leading economic growth in Europe, for the last two quarters we've done the exact opposite.

Why do you keep saying one quarter?

I posted Q1 and Q2 results.

Q1 was when we actually issued article 50. Prior to that Brexit was theoretical, so I don't see how I'm not thoroughly justified in viewing Q1 and Q2 2017 as indicative of the economic direction rather than the preceding three quarters.

I don't know what to say. If you think 2016 results are more of an indicator than 2017 I guess there's not a lot more discussion to be had.

Presumably you can at least admit that in 2017, we are far from having 'still among the strongest growth in the EU' as you stated in your post?
I acknowledge that I'm looking at growth in isolation, because as I said we've disagreed on unemployment and aren't going to find our way to agreement. You made an assertion about growth though that is categorically contradicted by the figures.

New IMF growth for 2017: UK 1.7%, > France (1.5%), Italy (1.3%), just below Germany (1.8%). Guardian: makes us "sick man of Europe". Bizarre

RemindGrim...! Restart the bot

RemindMe! of the babe

What do you want Brexit to mean for migration?

Zardoz wrote:

RemindMe! of the babe

What Babe?

I am confused by the last page of this thread.

Author:	Cras [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:22 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
Cavey wrote: STILL among the best growth rates in the EU Uh.. https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... wth-league

Author:	Cras [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:24 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
Cras wrote: Cavey wrote: STILL among the best growth rates in the EU Uh.. https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... wth-league Q2 figures are only just coming out but they're not looking any better https://www.theguardian.com/business/li ... iness-live

Author:	Hearthly [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:27 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
People have had enough of experts, Cras.

Author:	Cavey [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:41 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
Cras wrote: Cavey wrote: STILL among the best growth rates in the EU Uh.. https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... wth-league "Uh..." indeed. More Guardian doom-monger spin and bullshit, talking the country down. It's almost like certain people fucking glory in, and hope for, our collective failure as a Nation, just so they can smugly prove some point that they were right. Two things: The last quarter UK growth has been upgraded (as you know) and you entirely ignore the fact that the UK's growth massively outstrips the EU's in the immediate preceding three consecutive quarters, such that it is, at present at least, certainly true to say that UK growth compares favourably to comparable EU economies. That may change in the future (quite possibly if people keep talking us all down), but it isn't borne out by anything as of yet. It's this cherry picking that I can't stand - let's hang everything on ONE quarter - an outlier - usually to suit and in response some tiresome, deep-rooted ideology or other. I was, and am still, the first person against Brexit but y'know, we are where we are now, we gotta get on with it. Endlessly pissing and whining, grasping every shred of shit news as supposedly more evidence that we're all fucked and/or some loony-left relic from the 70s (also anti-EU) is supposedly some great panacea, really isn't helping IMO. (And of course, you entirely cherry picked economic growth in the first place, conveniently ignoring our 4.5% unemployment rate, as over, say, France at 11% and Spain at 20%... it's just all so bloody inconvenient, these pesky truths, right Cras? But then, zero hour contracts, basterd toreeees etc etc repeat to fade, right? )

Author:	Cavey [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:42 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
Hearthly wrote: People have had enough of experts, Cras. With that endorsement, I rest my case!

Be Excellent To Each Other https://www.beexcellenttoeachother.com/forum/

Taking the Brexit https://www.beexcellenttoeachother.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=10479	Page 49 of 131

Author:	Kern [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:47 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
Cavey, Have you ever watched a friend get involved with a partner you really don't like and who behaves awfully towards them? Have you ever stood there watching them and found yourself thinking 'what does he see in them? why doesn't he end this?' as things get messier and messier? That's kind of how I feel about Brexit. Right now, I can't see any good coming out of this, other than an EEA solution where we end up almost back to what we've currently got.

Author:	Cavey [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:50 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
@Kern I hate Brexit, as I've said all along, am still am. This Tory administration is a laughable shit-show, again as I've said. Brexit is happening, though, and despite all this we still have a chance to make it work (after a fashion) and SOME good stuff MAY come out as well as the bad. I'm a glass half full type of person and we gotta roll our sleeves up and crack on, despite wishing like fuck things were different, I know I do. But endlessly pissing and moaning, talking everyone down, isn't the answer

Author:	MrChris [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:53 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
They have made some FECKING good fighter planes though, and with far less national infrastructure and bribes to help them than, say, BAe who still can't make anything worth buying.

Author:	Cras [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:57 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
I ignored the unemployment figure because we've had that argument before. You think zero hours contracts don't matter because they're jobs, myself and others disagree and think including them makes the unemployment figures disingenuous. There's no point retreading the same ground. I've not cherry picked facts at all. Those two articles are Q1 and Q2 UK economic growth compared to the rest of Europe. When considering our current trajectory I can't possibly imagine more relevant data - and the Q2 figures linked by me above are after the upgrade that you mentioned. You said we are leading economic growth in Europe, for the last two quarters we've done the exact opposite.

Author:	Cras [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:03 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
Also, please don't go down the route of "Brexit is happening, we all have to get behind it and make it a success instead of talking the UK down". That's not how you deal with bad politics. When Blair took us into Iraq, should the Stop The War coalition have said "The invasion is happening, guess we should support it instead of talking the UK down" When Brown (by your rhetoric) loosened banking regulation, should we all have said "deregulation is happening, we should all be positive about the banking sector instead of talking the UK down" in 2006?

Author:	Trousers [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:06 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
Cavey wrote: endlessly pissing and moaning, talking everyone down, isn't the answer 100% disagree Cavey with both the categorisation of a fair warning about the problems and reporting of facts being classed as "pissing and moaning" and the fact that somehow that is not the answer. First example I can think of but I know there's plenty more - Hillsborough Families - dismissed as "pissing and moaning" for decades but they didn't give up in light of the fact that people on the other side, (or even their own side at times) thought they were being whiny. In fact it's "pissing and moaning" by the tabloid press about the EU that is a significant factor in where we are now. You sound like Liam Fox declaring that the BBC should be more pro-Brexit because, er, patriotism.

Author:	Cavey [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:09 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
Cras wrote: I ignored the unemployment figure because we've had that argument before. You think zero hours contracts don't matter because they're jobs, myself and others disagree and think including them makes the unemployment figures disingenuous. There's no point retreading the same ground. I've not cherry picked facts at all. Those two articles are Q1 and Q2 UK economic growth compared to the rest of Europe. When considering our current trajectory I can't possibly imagine more relevant data - and the Q2 figures linked by me above are after the upgrade that you mentioned. You said we are leading economic growth in Europe, for the last two quarters we've done the exact opposite. But that's clearly bullshit. The last ONE quarter (still in growth, now uprated) shows lower growth than EU as a whole, but the immediately preceding three show the precise opposite, so the aggregate for the last four quarters is still very much in UK's favour. How you can sit there with a straight face and tell me you're not cherry picking is beyond me (and indeed, plain wrong in the most fundamental way imaginable, as according to even your own posted Guardian piece), but I've come to the conclusion you actually believe it. You make yourself believe it. Doesn't change the immutable facts though I'm afraid, Cras. (As for the zero hours thing, you very disingenuously and entirely distort my position on that, too, unsurprisingly. I have merely stated, factually btw, that so-called zero hours contracts represent a tiny proportion of total employment in the UK, 2-3% IIRC(?), so whatever the whys and wherefores, and especially since at least some of those will be 'good' contracts/terms and/or with people who actively want such flexible employments, it can be said that their actual import on overall very favourable UK employment rates is demonstrably very low, laying waste the whole "it's all zero hours contracts innit" default-response of you and your ilk to justifiable praise in dramatically low unemployment. Best kind of correct etc. )

Author:	Cras [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:35 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
Why do you keep saying one quarter? I posted Q1 and Q2 results. Q1 was when we actually issued article 50. Prior to that Brexit was theoretical, so I don't see how I'm not thoroughly justified in viewing Q1 and Q2 2017 as indicative of the economic direction rather than the preceding three quarters.

Author:	Cavey [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:51 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
Cras wrote: Why do you keep saying one quarter? Because there is only one in the piece you posted, Q1 2017? https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... wth-league Quote: I posted Q1 and Q2 results. No, the Guardian piece that you linked to in your "Uh.." response states only Q1 (and is wrong btw, Q1=+0.3%, as you know of course). Do you re-read your old posts? You subsequently linked to a Guardian live feed suggesting a further +0.3%(?) UK Q2 provisional growth rate, which isn't even firm yet, and mere minutes old? Fuck me, you really can't wait can you, rubbing your paws with glee. Remember, though, that even an aggregate growth of +0.6% for Q1 and Q2 is hardly the the end of all things as we know it (especially when combined with aforementioned full employment, historically low inflation and sky high share prices) Quote: Q1 was when we actually issued article 50. Prior to that Brexit was theoretical, so I don't see how I'm not thoroughly justified in viewing Q1 and Q2 2017 as indicative of the economic direction rather than the preceding three quarters. Erm, Brexit was a reality from Q3 and Q4 last year, both showing absolutely stonking UK gowth, including as over our EU competitors, and we're still ahead in aggregate terms, complete with much lower unemployment etc. in the majority of cases etc etc. But youy ignore all the good and only take the bad, because it suits your held-since-the-dawn-of-Man argument/ideology. It's not so much cherry picking as defying the Second Law of Thermodynamics.

Author:	Cras [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:59 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
See my post immediately after - Q2 results from this morning.

Author:	Cavey [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:01 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit

Author:	Cras [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:02 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
I don't know what to say. If you think 2016 results are more of an indicator than 2017 I guess there's not a lot more discussion to be had.

Author:	Cavey [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:03 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
Cras wrote: I don't know what to say. If you think 2016 results are more of an indicator than 2017 I guess there's not a lot more discussion to be had. Priceless.

Author:	Cras [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:04 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
Ah, apologies on the former, misread your post. That data being from just this morning doesn't make it inaccurate. It's published data for Q2, it's not subject to change.

Author:	Cras [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:07 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
Presumably you can at least admit that in 2017, we are far from having 'still among the strongest growth in the EU' as you stated in your post? I acknowledge that I'm looking at growth in isolation, because as I said we've disagreed on unemployment and aren't going to find our way to agreement. You made an assertion about growth though that is categorically contradicted by the figures.

Author:	Cavey [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:20 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
Cras wrote: Presumably you can at least admit that in 2017, we are far from having 'still among the strongest growth in the EU' as you stated in your post? I acknowledge that I'm looking at growth in isolation, because as I said we've disagreed on unemployment and aren't going to find our way to agreement. You made an assertion about growth though that is categorically contradicted by the figures. I made my assertion as based on post-Brexit 2016 Q2,3,4 and 2017 Q1 UK growth (and taking other factors into account like our much lower unemployment rate etc., which I'm sorry, does come into it also for me, this is a holistic picture). It's beyond dispute that Q2, Q3 and Q4 were all massively good, far outweighing the weaker, but still well in growth revised upwards 2017 Q1 +0.3%. I feel entirely comfortable that the UK growth arithmetic mean for the 12 months 2016 Q2 to 2017 Q1 compares favourably to the EU - hence I believe my basic assertion is [was] valid. Now, mere minutes ago, Q2 provisional growth data is available (I am not a banker so I don't have this news feed I'm afraid ), which weakens the assertion, certainly (UK only +0.3% again), but we're still in growth despite everything, all as against an employment picture that is inarguably better than most of our EU peers. As I've mentioned, France is in double digits and Spain is 20% FFS, so their "growth" is from an awfully low base, economically and literally/morally, in social contract terms? So I'm happy to concede the very latest info weakens the argument but it's still arguable. I still maintain it's very risky to infer too much by way of "trajectory" or anything else much, as on a tiny data sample of 1 or 2 quarters.

Author:	myp [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:21 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
Let's revisit this in 6 months

Author:	myp [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:22 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
!remindme 90 days UK growth (fuck knows - I can't remember how that works)

Author:	Grim... [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:22 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
RemindMe! 6 months

Author:	Grim... [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:23 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
Although I appear to have failed to restart the bot since the server move.

Author:	zaphod79 [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:48 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
RemindGrim...! Restart the bot

Author:	Zardoz [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:51 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
RemindMe! of the babe

Author:	Cavey [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:52 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
Heh. Well, I don't possess a time machine (yet... am working on it, better have alcantara seats ) I don't do Twitter but someone just nudged me towards a tweet made a couple of days back by Andrew Neil deriding the Guardian doom-sayers... Quote: New IMF growth for 2017: UK 1.7%, > France (1.5%), Italy (1.3%), just below Germany (1.8%). Guardian: makes us "sick man of Europe". Bizarre https://twitter.com/afneil/status/889452489912848384 New IMF growth for 2017: UK 1.7%, > France (1.5%), Italy (1.3%), just below Germany (1.8%). Guardian: makes us "sick man of Europe". Bizarre — Andrew Neil (@afneil) July 24, 2017 ... Which is quite amusing I guess.

Author:	Grim... [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 13:54 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
zaphod79 wrote: RemindGrim...! Restart the bot I have

Author:	Mr Dave [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 14:03 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
Zardoz wrote: RemindMe! of the babe What Babe? ?

Author:	devilman [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 14:28 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
I can't help thinking the local paper knew they were going to get these kinds of responses... Attachment: brexit.PNG

Author:	Kern [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 14:34 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
Quote: What do you want Brexit to mean for migration? So I can get on a train or aeroplane and go live, study, work, and play wherever the hell I like, without visas, work permits, red tape, or other tedious faff.

Author:	myp [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 14:40 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit
Mr Dave wrote: Zardoz wrote: RemindMe! of the babe What Babe? ? The babe with

Author:	Grim... [ Fri Jul 28, 2017 14:42 ]
Post subject:	Re: Taking the Brexit