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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 19:43 
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I don't know. Isn't that more or less what the manifesto said?


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:37 
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As poll-master general (can't remember the name or where I read it, but some prof who has been interpreting exit polls correctly for a while) said, people want both hard and soft, as there's support for less immigration, but not at the cost of leaving the single market. Given the 'need' to not exile half the electorate by just overturning the referendum, and that the two things above are interlinked, picking a position like that is a good spanner thrower for Labour. And who knows, it might nudge the eventual outcome towards something sane.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:49 
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Gogmagog

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I might have said this before, I say a lot of things, I forget. Anyway:

I view it as taking where we were on 1st June 2016 as a base position and giving it a value of 0 on the MaliA Scale of Health, Wealth and Self. Ten points above this is the land of milk and honey, 10 below is living on the streets giving handjobs for crack. A switch to WTO rules would be about a -7, a 'bad deal' would be -6 and a 'soft Brexit' would be -5. I cannot see any way that leaving would benefit anyone. So we shouldn't do it, the government should be the guiding hand here ( normally, I think they should just provide some basic services and let individuals do the rest), and stop it.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:03 
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A long time in the EEA would be the unhappy compromise we end with. Not in the EU, but not much else.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:16 
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MaliA wrote:
I cannot see any way that leaving would benefit anyone. So we shouldn't do it


This is something that's been bugging me these past few days. Will there be a single advantage for us leaving the EU? I'd been talking to a friend of mine and I had a feeling that he voted for Brexit and sure enough, he had. So, I figure that maybe he fell for all the slogan-on-a-bus and Boris bollocks and so I asked him if he'd still vote to leave now and he said yes. I didn't press him on why as I think it would have just annoyed me to find out his reasons.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:20 
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Trade deals! No immigration! Independence! Make our own laws!

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:20 
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Tangible benefit? No.

That being said, there are a lot of folks for whom the intangible is important. It's not terribly rational, but being able to say 'Britain stands on its own, and is entirely responsible for its own choices and destiny' is something that folks value. Just gloss over the UN and NATO, because reasons.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:21 
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devilman wrote:
MaliA wrote:
I cannot see any way that leaving would benefit anyone. So we shouldn't do it


This is something that's been bugging me these past few days. Will there be a single advantage for us leaving the EU? I'd been talking to a friend of mine and I had a feeling that he voted for Brexit and sure enough, he had. So, I figure that maybe he fell for all the slogan-on-a-bus and Boris bollocks and so I asked him if he'd still vote to leave now and he said yes. I didn't press him on why as I think it would have just annoyed me to find out his reasons.


I'm guessing that the answer may have been something along the lines of 'taking back control' or 'to get our country back'.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:24 
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I've always had plenty of time for (and lots of fun arguments with) the more old-school Eurosceptics: those who are just against a supranational organisation either on principle itself or on the execution through the various treaties, rather than those who just rant about immigration etc.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:26 
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TheVision wrote:
'to get our country back'.


To which the correct response is "From whom?".


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:28 
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Kern wrote:
TheVision wrote:
'to get our country back'.


To which the correct response is "From whom?".

Immigrants / Brussels / for good

Choose as appropriate.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:32 
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TheVision wrote:
devilman wrote:
MaliA wrote:
I cannot see any way that leaving would benefit anyone. So we shouldn't do it


This is something that's been bugging me these past few days. Will there be a single advantage for us leaving the EU? I'd been talking to a friend of mine and I had a feeling that he voted for Brexit and sure enough, he had. So, I figure that maybe he fell for all the slogan-on-a-bus and Boris bollocks and so I asked him if he'd still vote to leave now and he said yes. I didn't press him on why as I think it would have just annoyed me to find out his reasons.


I'm guessing that the answer may have been something along the lines of 'taking back control' or 'to get our country back'.


I think you're right. I've always suspected he's a bit of a racist who hides it pretty well, stopping short of saying stuff like 'I've nothing against. .. but...' and being more diplomatic about how he phrases things.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:34 
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Kern wrote:
TheVision wrote:
'to get our country back'.


To which the correct response is "From whom?".


Correct!


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Jun 21, 2017 12:36 
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Sitting balls-back folder

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MaliA wrote:
I cannot see any way that leaving would benefit anyone.

Ah, a man who lost on the crack futures market.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2017 13:46 
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Gogmagog

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https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php ... ts.137542/

This is a cheerful discussion on lamb, grammar and the EU.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 7:15 
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Gogmagog

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https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... and-losers

Quote:
The pound tanked when the result of the referendum became clear on 24 June and 12 months on the currency is still down 15% against the dollar at just above $1.26. It is also down 14% against the euro, at about €1.13.


All fine.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 8:02 
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Sorry if this has already been mentioned elsewhere but I would very much recommend 'BREXIT MEANS BREXIT, THE UNOFFICIAL VERSION' - currently on BBC iPlayer.

Very enjoyable look behind the scenes from the Brexit vote to the election, as The Guardian notes below, the film maker's gentle style seems to get prominent political figures to say things they wouldn't in a 'normal' interview context.

Anna Soubry actually came over rather well.

https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radi ... plications

Quote:
Film-maker Patrick Forbes has been hanging about behind the scenes for the past year, making a documentary about the battle for the heart and soul of Britain. It’s called Brexit Means Brexit (BBC2).

Patrick’s not a political journalist; he mainly just watches, and listens. When he does ask a question, it’s almost embarrassingly deferential. “Forgive me for this, I have to ask a boring question,” he says to Boris Johnson, post the general election result, before just about managing to ask Boris if he is going to run against Theresa May. Not a boring question, and I don’t think Laura Kuenssberg needs to worry about her job. But the approach – more poodle puppy than rottweiler – does mean that they come and play with him, say things; a lot of things.

“The Daily Mail is an absolute disgrace, they should be ashamed of themselves,” shouts Anna Soubry, after Paul Dacre shouted ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE on his front page about the judges who ruled that parliament did have a right to debate Brexit.

Nicholas Soames agrees. “The most disgraceful, disgusting headline I have read in my life,” he splutters. The grandson of the bronze dude in the square with the pigeon shit on his head then calls Lord Pannick, who represented Gina Miller against the state, “as smooth as a vaselined otter”.

“Frankly, they’re just cowards,” Miller says of her critics. “I’m sorry, be a man – because most of them are men. Come and talk to me and find out my motivations. If you don’t have that courage, just shut up.”

Jacob Rees-Mogg, one of her critics, and a man, albeit a rather odd one, doesn’t shut up. “People have all sorts of hobbies, some people like yachts,” he says, plucking a random everyday hobby from his hobby bank. “Some people like being litigates. Mrs Miller likes being a litigate.”


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 8:10 
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It was a year ago today that we took to the polling stations and the people delivered a 'clear message' (52%... pretty much unanimous...) to leave.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 9:14 
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Gogmagog

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I'm beginning to hope that, as time passes, the real effect of a Brexit will xtalise, and some form of sanity will prevail, and we'll stay. There's some light shining through the door, at least, as shambolic as it is.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 9:25 
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MaliA wrote:
I'm beginning to hope that, as time passes, the real effect of a Brexit will xtalise, and some form of sanity will prevail, and we'll stay. There's some light shining through the door, at least, as shambolic as it is.


I'd like to think that, but of the people I know who voted for Brexit, I'm not exactly seeing any changes of opinion - they all still seem to think it's a great idea. Although if and when it does actually happen, if they gloat about it on Facebook, then I'll be having a friend cull on there. :)

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 9:45 
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"Yay for financial ruin, increased global irrelevance and international humiliation!"

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 9:49 
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Gogmagog

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devilman wrote:
MaliA wrote:
I'm beginning to hope that, as time passes, the real effect of a Brexit will xtalise, and some form of sanity will prevail, and we'll stay. There's some light shining through the door, at least, as shambolic as it is.


I'd like to think that, but of the people I know who voted for Brexit, I'm not exactly seeing any changes of opinion - they all still seem to think it's a great idea. Although if and when it does actually happen, if they gloat about it on Facebook, then I'll be having a friend cull on there. :)


Yeah, Facebook's a tricky one, isn't it? I try and not mention politics there, lest some of my connections consider me even more a haughty snob* than they already do (which is annoying, as I've never once told them I think I'm above them).

I feel better about it than 365 days ago, but in Cras we trust.

*No, really

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:18 
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Extallyse

Crosstalyse

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:18 
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Gogmagog

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Crystallise. Soz. Old habit.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:26 
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MaliA wrote:
Crystallise. Soz. Old habit.

:P

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jun 29, 2017 13:15 
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I've just read a speech Lord Adonis made to the House of Lords about the dangers of Brexit. He's quite wry and his analysis of the situation is interesting. It's worth reading in full - his opening remarks give a flavour of how he proceeds:

The best named peer in the realm wrote:
Perhaps I may first extend my sincere condolences to the Minister on her new appointment. The noble Baroness has an unenviable task. Brexit is a revolution that devours its children. It has consumed three Prime Ministers: Margaret Thatcher, John Major and David Cameron; it is now on to its fourth, Mrs May. In the past year alone, it has decapitated a Chancellor, neutered a Foreign Secretary, and two of the four Ministers in the Department for Exiting the European Union have already exited. I advise the Minister to join them as soon as possible and seek a less demanding job, like Secretary- General of the United Nations.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 13:56 
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Gogmagog

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So, the EU has done a free trade deal with Japan. That's good news for Sunderland and Swindon, isn't it?

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 13:58 
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MaliA wrote:
So, the EU has done a free trade deal with Japan. That's good news for Sunderland and Swindon, isn't it?

Well the government did a shady backdoor deal with Nissan so I'm sure it's fine

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 14:02 
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Probably bad news. Any future Japanese investment is surely going to go to places with the trade deal, rather than the place that's in the process of leaving it?


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 14:22 
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Ok, so odds of us never leaving now must be shortening right? Or is that wishful thinking?

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 14:36 
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Gogmagog

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Got to. As soon as the reality of the folly hits home.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 14:49 
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I don't think we're going to fall out in March 2019 - the government might have its faults but I doubt they are that stupid. I'm starting to sense that we're going to be in an awkward twilight zone for a long, long time until someone is brave enough to slip 'rejoin properly' into their manifesto. I'm kicking myself for not taking my MP up on her election material that said 'the decision has been made, there can be no turning back' as it's never a good idea to not give yourself a way out. I did ask her what 'the best deal' (another phrase on her pamphlet) would look like, and answer came there none.

The leave campaign's biggest asset was also their biggest weakness: a failure to have a plan for leaving. Although Mr Johnson et al should be hounded over the extra £350million per week for the NHS for all time (and with rising inflation, we'll probably reach that figure soon).


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 14:51 
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MaliA wrote:
Got to. As soon as the reality of the folly hits home.


It might be the splitting of the Tory party that does it in for Brexit, and, indeed, Mrs May.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 15:01 
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Lonewolves wrote:
Ok, so odds of us never leaving now must be shortening right? Or is that wishful thinking?


I do wonder about those who voted so vehemently to leave and still think it's a good idea now there are more facts available. Would they only accept it's a good idea to stay after we've left and everything's turned to crap? Or could there be a way of getting them onside without leaving at all.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 15:08 
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The trouble is there is no 'one' leave voter, there's several. The classic Eurosceptic (by which I mean those against the federalisation of the EU) and the anti-immigration lobby aren't going to be convinced. It's the soft voters, especially those who hadn't really thought about the EU before the referendum and those who voted leave to send a message to David Cameron that are key to turning this around. Sadly that means the economy will have to get worse before they will.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 17:03 
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Paws for thought

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MaliA wrote:
Got to. As soon as the reality of the folly hits home.

Nah. Labour will blame the tories. The tories aren't going to blame brexit, given it was their fault...


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 18:24 
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MaliA wrote:
So, the EU has done a free trade deal with Japan. That's good news for Sunderland and Swindon, isn't it?


For about the next 21 months, yes.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 9:31 
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Three days ago:
Quote:
Boris Johnson has suggested European leaders can “go whistle” if they expect Britain to pay a divorce bill for withdrawing from the European Union.

Speaking in the House of Commons, the foreign secretary also told MPs that the government had “no plan for no deal” because of its confidence in securing a strong Brexit settlement with the bloc.

He went on to say the sums demanded by Brussels as a price for a deal were “extortionate” and signalled that the UK would refuse to pay.

-- https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... is-johnson

Today:
Quote:
Britain has for the first time explicitly acknowledged it has financial obligations to the EU after Brexit, a move that is likely to avert a full-scale clash over the exit bill in talks next week.

In a written statement to parliament touching on a “financial settlement”, the government recognised on Thursday “that the UK has obligations to the EU . . . that will survive the UK’s withdrawal — and that these need to be resolved”.

The text, released by Joyce Anelay, a Brexit minister, was immediately seen by Brussels as a potentially important development. EU diplomats say the wording “goes further” than Theresa May’s previous reference to Britain being willing to reach a “fair settlement” of unspecified obligations.

-- https://www.ft.com/content/be2b22ce-67f ... 38dcaef614

Boris Johnson was almost our Prime Minister.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 9:42 
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It would be great if our strong and stable government in the national interest could manage not to undermine its own negotiations and perhaps speak with one voice on this. But no, plenty of ministers need to put their own egos and potential advancement ahead of not fecking the country up more than it needs to be.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 9:56 
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Gogmagog

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It's glorious. A glorious shitshow. I love it.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:00 
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MaliA wrote:
It's glorious. A glorious shitshow. I love it.

It's all fun and games until Sunderland's car workers are lining up on the dole.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:03 
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I can't take any pleasure from the Brexit fiasco, as horrifically incompetent, bumbling and oafish it's making the Tories look on a daily basis - the consequences are just far too serious.

That Barnier chap could take us to pieces if the mood takes him, and with that witless fucking moron Boris stamping around the place, that mood may well take him.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:11 
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Gogmagog

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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
MaliA wrote:
It's glorious. A glorious shitshow. I love it.

It's all fun and games until Sunderland's car workers are lining up on the dole.


I don't think it'll get that far. It's becoming too ludicrous of an escapade now to reach that stage.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:12 
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MaliA wrote:
Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
MaliA wrote:
It's glorious. A glorious shitshow. I love it.

It's all fun and games until Sunderland's car workers are lining up on the dole.


I don't think it'll get that far. It's becoming too ludicrous of an escapade now to reach that stage.


Yeah, I'm now seeing a glimmer of hope that it is becoming too visibly and publically disastrous to actually follow through with - which I didn't expect.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:12 
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EvilTrousers

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This is what is extremely annoying. Anybody pointing out that we need to be a bit better at this shit is shouted down as being a Remoaning Cuntlord trying to slow things down, just being negative and waiting for it to fail whilst rubbing their hands with glee.

I don't want Brexit to fail. Admittedly I want it to be difficult, tedious and complicated so that a binary referendum on a massively complicated issue is not put forward in future, but I absolutely do not want it to be the clusterfuck it is currently looking like.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:13 
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Cras wrote:
follow through

Brexit in a nutshell.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:17 
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Paws for thought

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Cras wrote:
MaliA wrote:
Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
MaliA wrote:
It's glorious. A glorious shitshow. I love it.

It's all fun and games until Sunderland's car workers are lining up on the dole.


I don't think it'll get that far. It's becoming too ludicrous of an escapade now to reach that stage.


Yeah, I'm now seeing a glimmer of hope that it is becoming too visibly and publically disastrous to actually follow through with - which I didn't expect.

What are the likes of the sun/mail saying?


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:28 
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Excellent Member

Joined: 25th Jul, 2010
Posts: 11128
The only possible silver lining here is that a massively fucked Brexit might swell appetite for Scottish independence then you can all come and live in our glorious socialist utopia.

I'm mostly joking there of course. Mostly.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:34 
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Gogmagog

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 48642
Location: Cheshire
Bamba wrote:
The only possible silver lining here is that a massively fucked Brexit might swell appetite for Scottish independence then you can all come and live in our glorious socialist utopia.

I'm mostly joking there of course. Mostly.


Do you think that as businesses begain to make more noise about the consequences, and set up other offices abroad (such as Easy Jet) it might change the direction?

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:45 
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Gogmagog

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 48642
Location: Cheshire
http://www.alastaircampbell.org/blog/20 ... nt-future/

Alastair Campbell's view.

Quote:
There are however two other elements of democracy worth mentioning – and they are related. One is the role of truth. The other is the right of people to change their mind. And partly because the public now has a clear sense not only that they were lied to during the referendum, but that they are now being fed a different set of lies about how pain-free Brexit will be, they are beginning to doubt the good sense of exiting the EU, and moving to the idea that the country may need to take another look at this.

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