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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 14:30 
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MrChris wrote:
Was Iraq really that big a political disaster?

You could say it paved the way for Blair stepping aside, Brown taking over, the 2010 and 2015 GEs, then the Labour party taken over by the left and being where they are today.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 14:31 
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So not great


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 14:42 
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Lonewolves wrote:
MrChris wrote:
Was Iraq really that big a political disaster?

You could say it paved the way for Blair stepping aside, Brown taking over, the 2010 and 2015 GEs, then the Labour party taken over by the left and being where they are today.

When you put it like that, yes. :(
Mind you, in terms of what caused the current moribund state of the Labour party, would you say that the bigger factor was the Iraq War, or Labour's absolute failure to correct the Tory canard that the global economic crisis was Brown's fault?

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 14:46 
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I was thinking more of the mess it's left in that part of the world due to shoddingly poor planning and the general shadow it casts over future military interventions.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 14:48 
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Yeah, Brexit is easily going to be worse than the Poll Tax, though. That was just a shitty idea and it could get canned with relatively little fuss. This Brexit thing will never, ever end. When it all goes badly all the people who voted for it will inevitably just blame the EU.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 18:57 
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I think that Iraq was a political disaster for a large and vocal group of people, but by no means do I see evidence for it being a majority view. I think ther is a significant element of echo chamber of around it which makes it perceived as more significant than it actually was for the general public.

Which in part refers to the same previous conversation as where most people get their political information/actually give a shit.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 21:31 
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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 21:37 
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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 21:41 
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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Jun 04, 2017 15:00 
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Here's a bit of sobering analysis for you.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... arm-brexit

Quote:
Every day in Britain, 14,000 trucks come from and head to the European Union. If there is no Brexit deal with the EU, is every one of those trucks going to be inspected as they bring vital food and goods into the UK to see that the right tariff is being charged and correct regulation observed? If some trucks get delayed or traffic volumes plummet, who will organise food rationing in our supermarkets? Five days before a general election called to give the government a negotiating mandate for leaving the EU, is anyone aware of the risks?

Equally, a quarter of British exports with the EU pass through one single port, Calais – £3bn a month – with zero border controls or inspection. Who in Calais is going to inspect these goods to see if they correspond to EU rules if we crash out with no deal? Has France any interest in investing quickly in the customs structure to keep British exports flowing? The M20 and M2 will become gigantic truck parks as drivers wait to be inspected. You might think that, just as a precautionary measure, as the prospect of the exit talks collapsing is less than two years away, the UK government would be investing in customs inspection depots in our great ports and along the land border with Ireland and also offering to build similar structures in France to ease the inevitable congestion on UK roads. Surely someone, somewhere might have asked these questions?

Nothing is being done at all. Mrs May and her breezy lead negotiator, David Davis, offer platitudes about Britain embracing the globe and no deal being better than a bad deal, but even the most innocent negotiator in the EU team can see this is vainglorious posturing. They are betting on a deal being struck – negotiators with few cards, nor making sure they hold better ones. As matters stand, the consequence of no deal would be calamitous.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Jun 04, 2017 20:37 
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Years back, when I dealt with shipments from China, I think the shipping containers had a pass of some sorts to expedite business, and were less likely to get pulled by customs. Unless it was a note from the Big Book of Supplier Excuses

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 20:24 
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Actually I'm feeling slightly more positive about the Brexit negotiations

http://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcthree/item/35e5 ... 898bce3dd4

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:09 
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Everything will be fine.

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/06 ... what-we-re

Quote:
So they have confirmed it. Britain will start talks with the EU on Monday. We are now about to go into the most challenging negotiations since the Second World War with no government, no overall aim, no plan to achieve it, no functioning department to deliver it, no confidence at home or abroad with which to pass it, no trade expert capacity to negotiate it, and no time to manage it.

This is beyond even the bleakest warnings of Remainers in the days after the vote. We must now face the very real possibility of an unmitigated disaster with very severe damage to our quality of life and a painful spectacle of humiliation on the international stage.

Start at the lowest level. The Brexit department itself is experiencing high volumes of top-level churn. Ministers David Jones and George Bridges are out, the latter apparently due to disagreements with Downing Street on its obsession with centralised control. Brexit secretary David Davis is losing staff all over the place. His special adviser James Chapman has quit, while his parliamentary private secretary Stewart Jackson just lost his seat in May's hara kiri election.

The departmental structure around them is also shifting, with Remainer Damian Green taking over effectively as deputy prime minister in the Cabinet Office, which was linking the work being done in the Brexit department with Liam Fox's Department for International Trade and the Foreign Office under Boris Johnson. Gavin Barwell, another Remainer, has taken over as chief of staff to May, triggering spasms of paranoia on right wing blogs. He is already neck-deep in controversy over whether he failed to act over warnings of fire safety in tower blocks following the Grenfell blaze. This tripartite structure, with big swinging egos at the top, has achieved nothing so far except for wasting time. There is little reason to believe it will suddenly start working now.

We still do not have enough trade specialists in order to match the EU's huge negotiating team. Not only that, but their team are blooded, having conducted tough trade talks over years. Ours appears to be stitched together by freelancing Kiwis and Canadians, some management consultants, and a few scrubbed-up civil servants. The senior figures who wrote in to the civil service seeing if they could help never got a reply. It was the height of Brexiter arrogance back then. All were ignored except for the true believers. And now here we are.

Who on earth are the negotiating team representing anyway? There is no government back home. We're not expecting to have had the Tory-DUP deal signed off by Monday. But even if we had, it is not clear that it could win any Commons votes on Brexit. It faces a hardcore group of pro-Brexit MPs on the right of the parliamentary party, alongside the crazed old-testament hard Brexit supporting DUP. On the left, there an increasingly bullish set of moderate Tories alongside a cocky Scottish Conservative group of 13 MPs who want soft Brexit.

But who cares about delivering votes back in Westminster when it is unclear that the government has any idea what it is even trying to achieve. In the hours after the polls closed, Davis said that the public was voting on whether it supported the plan to leave the single market and customs union. When the public did not give him that mandate he took to the BBC airwaves the following Monday and insisted it would remain unchanged anyway. Then by lunchtime he was telling Sky that his door was always open to ideas from Labour. The next day, Michael Gove - despised by the prime minister but now back in government due to her full-spectrum executive impotence - was also welcoming Labour to come have a chat and propose some ideas.

Either they had both suddenly rediscovered their democratic spirit after spending a year pretending 52% of voters amounted to the 'will of the people', or they were looking for ways to share the blame. But there are no signs of any cross-party Brexit committee being formed, nor that the Labour leadership wishes to help the Tories avoid a catastrophe of their own making. Or that Labour would even have a plan if it did decide to get involved. It has shown little signs of one so far.

May herself is damaged goods of the sort which can never be repaired. Her humiliation is too specific and too great. She will never have any authority around that Brussels negotiating table, nor back home in Westminster. Brussels doesn't have confidence that she can deliver on the promises she makes in Europe or even that she is likely to still be prime minister by the next time they have a meeting. What an unspeakable shambles these people are.

And that clock just keeps on ticking down to March 31st 2019 - the product of a prime minister so arrogant, dim-witted and disreputable that she would trigger Article 50 and then hold an election after the countdown had begun.

The fact we are going for those talks is completely insane and embarrassing. What will it take for the Brexiters to recognise their folly?

Any team with even a smidgen of respect for the national interest would immediately seek to extend Article 50 on the basis of the election result. The value to Britain of extending the deadline increases the later it takes place, so by refusing to petition for an extension now we are simply handing Brussels more leverage for later in the talks. But of course doing that involves a modicum of humility and therefore cannot be entertained.

Reason dictates that it must happen anyway. The fact they have not tried to do so shows that the Brexiters remain in a state of self-induced mania and that their ideological obsessions trump their supposed commitment to Great Britain.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:32 
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It's kind of exhilarating though isn't it? Steaming full speed ahead on the good ship Fuckwit.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:46 
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Given exactly the fucking shambles outlined in Hearthly's post there I'm quite surprised by the recent election results in Scotland. I totally understand people being sceptical about the idea of Scottish independance but I actually thought more people would be swayed by it given how much of a clusterfuck Westminster has been in the last year. The Tory wins in Scotland though were, in my opinion, entirely down to people not wanting to tacitly support another referendum by voting SNP so it seems to actually be going the opposite way from what I'd assumed would happen. People are fucking weird.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:54 
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markg wrote:
It's kind of exhilarating though isn't it? Steaming full speed ahead on the good ship Fuckwit.


Yeah, buckle up for a wildride and we'll all take a shot when we reach Destination Fucked.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 12:01 
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Bamba wrote:
Given exactly the fucking shambles outlined in Hearthly's post there I'm quite surprised by the recent election results in Scotland. I totally understand people being sceptical about the idea of Scottish independance but I actually thought more people would be swayed by it given how much of a clusterfuck Westminster has been in the last year. The Tory wins in Scotland though were, in my opinion, entirely down to people not wanting to tacitly support another referendum by voting SNP so it seems to actually be going the opposite way from what I'd assumed would happen. People are fucking weird.

A little like punishing the Lib Dems in 2015 for not stopping the Tories... by voting in the Tories. Shows that people have to react first, then realise the consequences. And act again. Gawd knows what that means for Brexit - I kind of feel like we have to go through it in order to prove people wrong. Then, finally, enough of them will realise.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 20:18 
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Bamba wrote:
Given exactly the fucking shambles outlined in Hearthly's post there I'm quite surprised by the recent election results in Scotland. I totally understand people being sceptical about the idea of Scottish independance but I actually thought more people would be swayed by it given how much of a clusterfuck Westminster has been in the last year. The Tory wins in Scotland though were, in my opinion, entirely down to people not wanting to tacitly support another referendum by voting SNP so it seems to actually be going the opposite way from what I'd assumed would happen. People are fucking weird.

I think it must be entirely down to an anti indyref2 protest vote. There's no labour in Scotland to speak of and the general perception of conservatives, despite the clusterfuckyness, is they're good for businesses. Too many people read news papers here :(


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 19:55 
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One of Mrs Hearthly's Facebook friends has translated this article from a Swiss newspaper.

http://mobile2.derbund.ch/articles/5944 ... 44ba000001

https://www.facebook.com/paula.kirby.7/ ... 8350083480

Quote:
This article in a Swiss newspaper today is so ruthlessly clear-sighted in its assessment of just how screwed we are that I just had to translate it for the non-German speakers. Hold on to your hats:

THE LAUGHING STOCK OF EUROPE

[Translation by Paula Kirby]

If it weren't so serious, the situation in Great Britain would almost be comical. The country is being governed by a talking robot, nicknamed the Maybot, that somehow managed to visit the burned-out tower block in the west of London without speaking to a single survivor or voluntary helper. Negotiations for the country’s exit from the EU are due to begin on Monday, but no one has even a hint of a plan. The government is dependent on a small party that provides a cozy home for climate change deniers and creationists. Boris Johnson is Foreign Secretary. What in the world has happened to this country?

Two years ago David Cameron emerged from the parliamentary election as the shining victor. He had secured an absolute majority, and as a result it looked as if the career of this cheerful lightweight was headed for surprisingly dizzy heights. The economy was growing faster than in any other industrialised country in the world. Scottish independence and, with it, the break-up of the United Kingdom had been averted. For the first time since 1992, there was a Conservative majority in the House of Commons. Great Britain saw itself as a universally respected actor on the international stage. This was the starting point.

In order to get from this comfortable position to the chaos of the present in the shortest possible time, two things were necessary: first, the Conservative right wingers’ obsessive hatred of the EU, and second, Cameron’s irresponsibility in putting the whole future of the country on the line with his referendum, just to satisfy a few fanatics in his party. It is becoming ever clearer just how extraordinarily bad a decision that was. The fact that Great Britain has become the laughing stock of Europe is directly linked to its vote for Brexit.

The ones who will suffer most will be the British people, who were lied to by the Brexit campaign during the referendum and betrayed and treated like idiots by elements of their press. The shamelessness still knows no bounds: the Daily Express has asked in all seriousness whether the inferno in the tower block was due to the cladding having been designed to meet EU standards. It is a simple matter to discover that the answer to this question is No, but by failing to check it, the newspaper has planted the suspicion that the EU might be to blame for this too. As an aside: a country in which parts of the press are so demonstrably uninterested in truth and exploit a disaster like the fire in Grenfell Tower for their own tasteless ends has a very serious problem.

Already prices are rising in the shops, already inflation is on the up. Investors are holding back. Economic growth has slowed. And that’s before the Brexit negotiations have even begun. With her unnecessary general election, Prime Minister Theresa May has already squandered an eighth of the time available for them. How on earth an undertaking as complex as Brexit is supposed to be agreed in the time remaining is a mystery.

Great Britain will end up leaving its most important trading partner and will be left weaker in every respect. It would make economic sense to stay in the single market and the customs union, but that would mean being subject to regulations over which Britain no longer had any say. It would be better to have stayed in the EU in the first place. So the government now needs to develop a plan that is both politically acceptable and brings the fewest possible economic disadvantages. It’s a question of damage limitation, nothing more; yet even now there are still politicians strutting around Westminster smugly trumpeting that it will be the EU that comes off worst if it doesn’t toe the line.

The EU is going to be dealing with a government that has no idea what kind of Brexit it wants, led by an unrealistic politician whose days are numbered; and a party in which old trenches are being opened up again: moderate Tories are currently hoping to be able to bring about a softer exit after all, but the hardliners in the party – among them more than a few pigheadedly obstinate ideologues – are already threatening rebellion. An epic battle lies ahead, and it will paralyse the government.

EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier has said that he now expects the Brits to finally set out their position clearly, since he cannot negotiate with himself. The irony of this statement is that it would actually be in Britain’s best interests if he did just that. At least that way they’d have one representative on their side who grasps the scale of the task and is actually capable of securing a deal that will be fair to both sides. The Brits do not have a single negotiator of this stature in their ranks. And quite apart from the Brexit terms, both the debate and the referendum have proven to be toxic in ways that are now making themselves felt.

British society is now more divided than at any time since the English civil war in the 17th century, a fact that was demonstrated anew in the general election, in which a good 80% of the votes were cast for the two largest parties. Neither of these parties was offering a centrist programme: the election was a choice between the hard right and the hard left. The political centre has been abandoned, and that is never a good sign. In a country like Great Britain, that for so long had a reputation for pragmatism and rationality, it is grounds for real concern. The situation is getting decidedly out of hand.

After the loss of its empire, the United Kingdom sought a new place in the world. It finally found it, as a strong, awkward and influential part of a larger union: the EU. Now it has given up this place quite needlessly. The consequence, as is now becoming clear, is a veritable identity crisis from which it will take the country a very long time to recover.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 20:33 
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Can't argue with any of that.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:46 
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Brexit negotiations dawn. Gonna be a hot day.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:26 
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That's the bright sunlit uplands, folks!


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:49 
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Can't argue with any of that.

:this:

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:39 
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3:0 to the EU in the first few minutes of the first half then.....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... irst-round

Quote:
When ITV’s James Mates pointed out that everything was happening according to the EU timetable and that Britain had already given in to everything the British government had previously insisted was a red line in the negotiations, Davis began to implode. “Everything is exactly the same as before,” he yelled. “We will be leaving the single market and the customs union and the timetable is exactly the one we asked for. Nothing is decided until everything is decided.”

At this point Barnier began to get seriously concerned. His assumption that Davis had understood the real meaning behind the opening pleasantries had clearly been totally mistaken. He had imagined that Davis was bright enough to understand the rules of the game, but now it was looking as if the Brexit minister was simply a bit of an idiot. Davis didn’t even seem to realise he had agreed to making the terms of the financial settlement a priority, as he hadn’t bothered to mention it once despite being repeatedly pressed on it.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:33 
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No doubt the hardcore Brexit set will say this is a typical example of EU intransigence, rather than Britain being in a very weak position vis-à-vis the EU and 27 countries.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:39 
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Maybe the plan is that if we look like the most pathetic fucking idiots on the continent that they'll start to feel sorry for us.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:58 
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You know how this is going to end don't you? The entire thing will be a shambles and the EU will laughingly crucify us, which will lead the Brexiters to carry on blaming the EU for any and all woes that befall the country for the rest of fucking eternity never once taking responsibility for the shitshow they've wrought. Obviously it was going to be a mess anyway but at least the satisfaction of being able to say 'we told you so' to the stupid old fucks would've cushioned the blow somewhat.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:02 
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Sadly, if we come crawling back we won't get as good a deal (the rebate; no euro) as we have now. And, just like our decision to stay out of it at the beginning, we'll have to accept all that was decided in our absence. But hey, blue passports.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:03 
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Hmm...as the euro opt-out is written into the treaties, I assume it would stay there as a dormant clause unless the EU countries remove it.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 19:29 
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https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.theguar ... may-brexit

Just why is this coming out today? What sort of shit are they playing at?

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