Be Excellent To Each Other

And, you know, party on. Dude.

All times are UTC [ DST ]




Reply to topic  [ 6503 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34 ... 131  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:57 
User avatar
Sleepyhead

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 27343
Location: Kidbrooke
Cras wrote:
Is it? Plenty of talk of the 'great repeal bill', but I've not seen mention of a confirmed date for article 50.


"Great" repeal bill.

Fucking arseholes

_________________
We are young despite the years
We are concern
We are hope, despite the times


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:00 
User avatar

Joined: 12th Apr, 2008
Posts: 17773
Location: Oxford
Getting it through the Lords will be fun.
With their slim majority in the Commons it could have been just as tricky but I have no confidence that Labour are capable of playing the necessary games to upset or frustrate the government.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:38 
SupaMod
User avatar
Commander-in-Cheese

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 49232
If the referendum was counted on constituency lines, it would have been 68% leave. Sitting MPs like their jobs too much for any sort of action.

_________________
GoddessJasmine wrote:
Drunk, pulled Craster's pork, waiting for brdyime story,reading nuts. Xz


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:38 
SupaMod
User avatar
Commander-in-Cheese

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 49232
So thank fuck we don't have a democratically elected upper chamber :)

_________________
GoddessJasmine wrote:
Drunk, pulled Craster's pork, waiting for brdyime story,reading nuts. Xz


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:39 
User avatar

Joined: 12th Apr, 2008
Posts: 17773
Location: Oxford
Cras wrote:
If the referendum was counted on constituency lines, it would have been 68% leave. Sitting MPs like their jobs too much for any sort of action.


Those losing out on the boundary review or reselection might just think 'fuck it' and try to prevent or obstruct it anyway. But that might just be wishful thinking: a British MP putting principles above party? !


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 16:59 
User avatar

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 32619
GBP:USD at a 168-year low. Oh dear.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 17:03 
User avatar
Gogmagog

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 48646
Location: Cheshire
Control!

_________________
Mr Chris wrote:
MaliA isn't just the best thing on the internet - he's the best thing ever.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 17:07 
User avatar
Prince of Fops

Joined: 14th May, 2009
Posts: 4299
MaliA wrote:
Control!


Alt!


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 17:11 
User avatar
Sleepyhead

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 27343
Location: Kidbrooke
Findus Fop wrote:
MaliA wrote:
Control!


Alt!


Delete!

_________________
We are young despite the years
We are concern
We are hope, despite the times


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 17:15 
User avatar
Prince of Fops

Joined: 14th May, 2009
Posts: 4299
We've done it! We can go back to how it used to be, in those halcyon days of early June.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 17:19 
User avatar

Joined: 12th Apr, 2008
Posts: 17773
Location: Oxford
Are we really yearning for the halcyon days of the Cameron/Osborne years? The world turned upside down indeed.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 17:28 
SupaMod
User avatar
Est. 1978

Joined: 27th Mar, 2008
Posts: 69509
Location: Your Mum
Cool kids use CTRL + Shift + Escape.

_________________
Grim... wrote:
I wish Craster had left some girls for the rest of us.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 17:30 
User avatar
Comfortably Dumb

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 12034
Location: Sunny Stoke
Can't we just Ctrl + Z?

_________________
Consolemad | Under Logic
Curse, the day is long
Realise you don't belong


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 17:33 
User avatar
Prince of Fops

Joined: 14th May, 2009
Posts: 4299
Kern wrote:
Are we really yearning for the halcyon days of the Cameron/Osborne years? The world turned upside down indeed.


True. And the faces of Gove, Farage and Boris were on TV much more too.

But a million times yes.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 12:49 
User avatar
Gogmagog

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 48646
Location: Cheshire
"UK's deal outside EU will be inferior to membership"

Quote:

Michel Barnier's press conference - Snap summary

Here are the key lines from the Michel Barnier press conference.

Barnier, the European commission’s chief negotiator, said the deal offered to the UK outside the EU would not be as good as membership. He made this point when setting out the commission’s four priorities for the negotiation. He also said that the UK would not be allowed to cherry pick, and that the four freedoms were indivisible (meaning the EU will not allow free movement of goods to the UK without the UK also allowing free movement of labour). (See 10.50am.)
He said the actual Brexit talks would have to conclude within 18 months. That was because, even though article 50 allows for a two-year withdrawal process, the European commission would need some time at the start to prepare, and around five months would have to be set aside at the end for the European council, the European parliament and the UK parliament to ratify the deal. (See 10.57am.)
He indicated that he wanted to negotiate the terms of Britain leaving the EU before negotiating a final free trade deal between the UK and the EU. The one would have to come after the other, he suggested. This is important because David Davis, the Brexit secretary, has said that he wants to two negotiations to be conducted in parallel.
Barnier indicated that he was open to offering the UK a transitional deal. (See 11.02am.)
He said finding a solution for Ireland that did not threaten the Good Friday agreement would be a priority. (See 10.53am.)
I will post a beefed-up summary soon, with the full quotes.


#block-58469bb9e4b049350cc96712" class="postlink">geuandai

_________________
Mr Chris wrote:
MaliA isn't just the best thing on the internet - he's the best thing ever.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Dec 11, 2016 10:27 
User avatar
Gogmagog

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 48646
Location: Cheshire
Well, this is awkward...

_________________
Mr Chris wrote:
MaliA isn't just the best thing on the internet - he's the best thing ever.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Dec 15, 2016 13:14 
User avatar

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 32619
https://www.ft.com/content/a3d0eff4-c22 ... 7d90f6741a

Quote:
Lloyd’s of London to establish EU base in the new year

Insurance market is among first City businesses to firm up Brexit plans

Lloyd’s of London has become one of the first major City businesses to put a timetable on plans to move a part of its operations to the EU in preparation for Brexit.

The 328-year-old insurance market is in the throes of choosing a destination from a short list of five and is likely to put a proposal to its members by February next year.

The market will then seek regulatory clearance for the subsidiary, which will be used to conduct business around the EU using the “passporting” system. This allows financial services businesses to conduct trade across the bloc from a single location.

Lloyd’s chairman, John Nelson, said that the market had decided it needed to act sooner rather than later to protect the 11 per cent of its revenues coming from Europe.

ZOMG Spoiler! Click here to view!
“Insurance is a mobile business,” he said. “In common with other financial institutions, we need to put our plans in place — at least on a precautionary basis.”

Lloyd’s preferred option remains to keep its European operations concentrated in London. It is possible that the market might shelve its relocation plans if a “no change” deal is struck between the EU and London allowing British financial businesses to trade freely through the single market.

The new subsidiary will cost in the tens of millions to set up and will increase the market’s operating cost, notably in compliance and regulation. Lloyd’s will also have to capitalise the venture separately, which will also place an additional burden on members.

The news emerged as MPs and regulators stepped up pressure on the government to buy the industry more time by seeking transitional arrangements to avert a “cliff edge” effect after Brexit.

A House of Lords committee report called on ministers to make such arrangements an urgent priority when Article 50 is triggered early next year to prevent financial services firms from restructuring or relocating on the basis of a “worst-case” scenario.

The chair of the EU financial affairs subcommittee, Baroness Falkner, expressed concern that the government was not making this objective enough of a priority. Referring to evidence given to the committee by the City minister, Simon Kirby, she said that “he did not seem as seized of the matter as we might have expected him to be”.

The committee’s call has also been echoed by the UK’s top supervisor of banks and insurers, who told parliamentarians that transitional arrangements to smooth Britain’s exit from the European Union should be agreed ideally within nine months after the official Brexit mechanism is triggered.

In common with other financial institutions, we need to put our plans in place — at least on a precautionary basis
Lloyd’s chairman, John Nelson
Sam Woods, head of the Bank of England’s Prudential Regulation Authority, told the Treasury select committee on Wednesday that clarity around transitional arrangements was vital for financial stability, not just for the UK but for Europe too.

“The important thing is to have some kind of clarity on the transitional [deal], and the sooner the better,” Mr Woods told MPs. Such a deal “would reduce the risks but this seems just as true for the EU as it would be for the UK”.

He added: “Firms will make their first sort of decisions [around contingency planning] in a small number of months . . . the sooner a transitional arrangement is agreed the better in terms of obviating activities, and letting regulators here and on the continent agree” a course of action.

Mr Woods’ position is in line with his boss, Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England. The chancellor, Philip Hammond, has also called for transitional arrangements, which some Brexiters view with scepticism because they are pushing for a “clean break” with the EU.

David Davis, Brexit secretary, also conceded on Wednesday that transitional arrangements may be needed.

Mr Davis had earlier said that a trade deal could be agreed alongside a divorce settlement within the two-year Article 50 process, a view not widely shared in the Treasury or in Brussels.
Feels significant.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Dec 15, 2016 13:58 
Filthy Junkie Bitch

Joined: 17th Dec, 2008
Posts: 8293
Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Feels significant.

Kind of. However in reality, of all the financial services businesses in the City, Lloyd's is the one that would find it hardest to move wholesale whatever the outcomes. It's similar to when you have a big car plant threatened with closure, it isn't the effect of the jobs in the plant itself, it is all the ancillary businesses that supply them nearby.

Lloyd's has a lot of people working in *that* building, but there are many many more (Brokers, MGAs, Insurers) working within walking distance that Lloyd's wholly depends on to make the model work. On the brightside, by having an EU presence such that not everything passes through the building they may finally scrap the amount of paper that they use.

Also worth noting that EU business, while significant to Lloyd's, is only a small proportion of their premium income. In 2016, "EU, non UK" only accounted for 14%, with US and Canada accounting for 47%.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:49 
User avatar

Joined: 12th Apr, 2008
Posts: 17773
Location: Oxford
BBC: Migrant farm workers may stay after Brexit but red tape goes
Quote:
The environment secretary says she is "absolutely committed" to ensuring that British farmers have access to migrant workers after Brexit.

Andrea Leadsom said the government would ensure the food and farming sectors have the labour they need but the details were not settled yet.


If I were running an interest group I'd be getting my demands in to ministers now, and not stop harassing them. What I can see happening is that every sector will be demanding exemptions and special treatment so that the eventual out come of leaving the EU will be very much like being in it, except crappier. But we'll have blue passports again and £350 million a week to blow on political favours so that'll be ok.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:58 
User avatar
Gogmagog

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 48646
Location: Cheshire
Kern wrote:
BBC: Migrant farm workers may stay after Brexit but red tape goes
Quote:
The environment secretary says she is "absolutely committed" to ensuring that British farmers have access to migrant workers after Brexit.

Andrea Leadsom said the government would ensure the food and farming sectors have the labour they need but the details were not settled yet.


If I were running an interest group I'd be getting my demands in to ministers now, and not stop harassing them. What I can see happening is that every sector will be demanding exemptions and special treatment so that the eventual out come of leaving the EU will be very much like being in it, except crappier. But we'll have blue passports again and £350 million a week to blow on political favours so that'll be ok.


I agree. It's lunacy.

_________________
Mr Chris wrote:
MaliA isn't just the best thing on the internet - he's the best thing ever.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:59 
Awesome
User avatar
Yes

Joined: 6th Apr, 2008
Posts: 12243
Why nobody has had the balls to turn around and say "it was an advisory referendum, we're not leaving" I don't know.

_________________
Always proof read carefully in case you any words out


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:01 
User avatar

Joined: 12th Apr, 2008
Posts: 17773
Location: Oxford
Mr Russell wrote:
Why nobody has had the balls to turn around and say "it was an advisory referendum, we're not leaving" I don't know.


I sometimes wonder if the gameplan is to string things out for so long that public opinion switches the other way and by 2022 or so it can be quietly dropped. This might fall under the category of 'desperate bargaining', however.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:04 
User avatar
SavyGamer

Joined: 29th Apr, 2008
Posts: 7600
Mr Russell wrote:
Why nobody has had the balls to turn around and say "it was an advisory referendum, we're not leaving" I don't know.

Anyone in a position of power who said that would soon find themselves no longer in a position of power.

They're better off just trying to delay it as long as possible.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:07 
User avatar

Joined: 12th Apr, 2008
Posts: 17773
Location: Oxford
Incidentally, I finished Tim Shipman's 'All out war' last night. I preferred it to Craig Oliver's 'Unleashing Demons'. If I get the time I'll write out some thoughts and reactions to it, but I can definitely recommend it as a great page-turner and first draft of history.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 11:48 
User avatar

Joined: 23rd Nov, 2008
Posts: 9521
Location: The Golden Country
It's interesting to note that the FTSE250 continues to absolutely power ahead - it's up yet another 140-odd points this morning and it's quite literally never been better (and is some c.3,500 points higher than the immediate post-Brexit vote, and still more than 1,000 points higher than the pre-Brexit peak!)

I'm still a "Bremoaner" but must admit, between us all, I'm starting to think all the portents of doom stuff, at least in purely economic terms, was incorrect to the point of scaremongering. From where I'm sitting, UK plc is *booming*, even the (now strengthening) weak Pound has been an enormous boost to manufacturing output.

Of course, the FTSE100 also continues to enjoy its highest ever level, and in fact was the best performing European Stock this last year....


You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

_________________
Beware of gavia articulata oculos...

Dr Lave wrote:
Of course, he's normally wrong but interestingly wrong :p


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 11:57 
User avatar
Comfortably Dumb

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 12034
Location: Sunny Stoke
Cavey wrote:
It's interesting to note that the FTSE250 continues to absolutely power ahead - it's up yet another 140-odd points this morning and it's quite literally never been better (and is some c.3,500 points higher than the immediate post-Brexit vote, and still more than 1,000 points higher than the pre-Brexit peak!)

I'm still a "Bremoaner" but must admit, between us all, I'm starting to think all the portents of doom stuff, at least in purely economic terms, was incorrect to the point of scaremongering. From where I'm sitting, UK plc is *booming*, even the (now strengthening) weak Pound has been an enormous boost to manufacturing output.



I see this in comments sections on various sites. Stuff along the lines of 'look, everything's fine!', but it feels just like the calm before the storm. Once Article 50 is triggered and we start to negotiate and find out exactly what we've let ourselves in for, that's when I imagine we'll see the gloomier stuff kick in.

_________________
Consolemad | Under Logic
Curse, the day is long
Realise you don't belong


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:09 
User avatar
Decapodian

Joined: 15th Oct, 2010
Posts: 5152
So, looks like TM wants us to stay in the single market but have control over EU migration. That's unlikely to be accepted, so we will leave the single market.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01 ... le-market/


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:12 
User avatar

Joined: 12th Apr, 2008
Posts: 17773
Location: Oxford
devilman wrote:
I see this in comments sections on various sites. Stuff along the lines of 'look, everything's fine!', but it feels just like the calm before the storm. Once Article 50 is triggered and we start to negotiate and find out exactly what we've let ourselves in for, that's when I imagine we'll see the gloomier stuff kick in.


A lot of the likely bad stuff won't happen overnight, but occur slowly over time, sometimes even imperceptibly. Universities start not getting grants; the brightest/most skilled from other countries going elsewhere rather than here; businesses not investing; tax receipts dwindling etc. People just not noticing that things are changing for the worse until it's too late.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:13 
User avatar

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 14150
Location: Shropshire, UK
:this: We've not seen the half of it, yet.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:13 
User avatar

Joined: 12th Apr, 2008
Posts: 17773
Location: Oxford
Dr Zoidberg wrote:
So, looks like TM wants us to stay in the single market but have control over EU migration. That's unlikely to be accepted, so we will leave the single market.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01 ... le-market/


They must be hoping that each of the twenty-seven nations will blink in different ways.

Multi-dimensional chicken.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:17 
User avatar
Hello Hello Hello

Joined: 11th May, 2008
Posts: 13382
Cavey wrote:
I'm still a "Bremoaner" but must admit, between us all, I'm starting to think all the portents of doom stuff, at least in purely economic terms, was incorrect to the point of scaremongering. From where I'm sitting, UK plc is *booming*, even the (now strengthening) weak Pound has been an enormous boost to manufacturing output.


But nothing's actually happened yet, all we've got is a commitment to start the process in the near future, to point to a graph of the FTSE and say it's all looking quite peachy is a nonsense.

The damage is going to be measured in years and decades, not weeks and months.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:22 
User avatar

Joined: 23rd Nov, 2008
Posts: 9521
Location: The Golden Country
Hearthly wrote:
Cavey wrote:
I'm still a "Bremoaner" but must admit, between us all, I'm starting to think all the portents of doom stuff, at least in purely economic terms, was incorrect to the point of scaremongering. From where I'm sitting, UK plc is *booming*, even the (now strengthening) weak Pound has been an enormous boost to manufacturing output.


But nothing's actually happened yet, all we've got is a commitment to start the process in the near future, to point to a graph of the FTSE and say it's all looking quite peachy is a nonsense.


Except that's not what I did of course, or even remotely.

Quote:
The damage is going to be measured in years and decades, not weeks and months.


Yes, so everyone keeps saying.
They may be right, but I credit the Markets as being smarter than that. If the medium term prospects for the UK were so dire, I would not expect the positively *booming* business environment and market performance, exports and most importantly, inward investment from the likes of Google, Nissan, Range Rover et al. These guys aren't stupid, believe you me.

I have to say my initial horror at the Brexit outcome is waning somewhat, but the jury's still out obv.

_________________
Beware of gavia articulata oculos...

Dr Lave wrote:
Of course, he's normally wrong but interestingly wrong :p


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:24 
User avatar

Joined: 12th Apr, 2008
Posts: 17773
Location: Oxford
Hearthly wrote:
The damage is going to be measured in years and decades, not weeks and months.


The optimist in me would like to think that in 2042 we look back and see the debris of a collapsed EU project as a move towards greater integration to save the Euro causes unresolved tensions across the bloc to erupt that the structures and politicians can't cope with, whilst we think 'phew, we jumped when we could'. Or perhaps a booming golden era of international trade and influence that some Leavers are promising after an initial bumpy ride. But I'm not Nostradamus and at the moment just can't see this ending well for the country and, in particular, the most disadvantaged and most excluded sectors of society.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 13:10 
User avatar
Sleepyhead

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 27343
Location: Kidbrooke
Ultimately, the companies in the UK that are large enough to be in the FTSE indices are well positioned to take advantage by effectively holding the country to ransom. They know this, the government knows this, and the markets know this (not least because Nissan have already done this).

The companies in the FTSE being okay does not a good country (or good economy) make.

_________________
We are young despite the years
We are concern
We are hope, despite the times


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 13:19 
User avatar

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 32619
Curiosity wrote:
Ultimately, the companies in the UK that are large enough to be in the FTSE indices are well positioned to take advantage by effectively holding the country to ransom. They know this, the government knows this, and the markets know this (not least because Nissan have already done this).
They are also multinationals that trade outside the country and outside the pound. IIRC the stat was that almost 80% of the money being made by the FTSE-100 firms, in aggregate, is in currencies other than GBP and from economic activities in countries other than the UK . As such, they are highly insulated from even the worst case Brexit scenarios, and the FTSE-100 is a poor signal for what the money market thinks the impact of Brexit will be.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 13:22 
User avatar
UltraMod

Joined: 27th Mar, 2008
Posts: 55716
Location: California
Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Curiosity wrote:
Ultimately, the companies in the UK that are large enough to be in the FTSE indices are well positioned to take advantage by effectively holding the country to ransom. They know this, the government knows this, and the markets know this (not least because Nissan have already done this).
They are also multinationals that trade outside the country and outside the pound. IIRC the stat was that almost 80% of the money being made by the FTSE-100 firms, in aggregate, is in currencies other than GBP and from economic activities in countries other than the UK . As such, they are highly insulated from even the worst case Brexit scenarios, and the FTSE-100 is a poor signal for what the money market thinks the impact of Brexit will be.

I broadly agree, but Cavey specifically mentioned the FTSE-250.

_________________
I am currently under construction.
Thank you for your patience.


Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 13:27 
User avatar
Sleepyhead

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 27343
Location: Kidbrooke
Lonewolves wrote:
Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Curiosity wrote:
Ultimately, the companies in the UK that are large enough to be in the FTSE indices are well positioned to take advantage by effectively holding the country to ransom. They know this, the government knows this, and the markets know this (not least because Nissan have already done this).
They are also multinationals that trade outside the country and outside the pound. IIRC the stat was that almost 80% of the money being made by the FTSE-100 firms, in aggregate, is in currencies other than GBP and from economic activities in countries other than the UK . As such, they are highly insulated from even the worst case Brexit scenarios, and the FTSE-100 is a poor signal for what the money market thinks the impact of Brexit will be.

I broadly agree, but Cavey specifically mentioned the FTSE-250.


He did, which is why I didn't mention which FTSE. Doc's point is still relevant though, as the larger companies in the group will still have this effect applied.

What's more, anyone with earnings in non-GBP that reports financially in GBP has had an absolute field day, given how terribly the pound performed in 2016 (basically the worst currency in the developed world, by a decent distance).

You can also factor in that the markets are still very bullish on there being no Hard Brexit.

_________________
We are young despite the years
We are concern
We are hope, despite the times


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 13:33 
User avatar
Ticket to Ride World Champion

Joined: 18th Apr, 2008
Posts: 11843
Kern wrote:

The optimist in me would like to think that in 2042 we look back and see the debris of a collapsed EU project as a move towards greater integration to save the Euro causes unresolved tensions across the bloc to erupt that the structures and politicians can't cope with, whilst we think 'phew, we jumped when we could'. Or perhaps a booming golden era of international trade and influence that some Leavers are promising after an initial bumpy ride. But I'm not Nostradamus and at the moment just can't see this ending well for the country and, in particular, the most disadvantaged and most excluded sectors of society.


I can't help but think that the goal of massive destabilisation and disruption in our neighbours in order to be able to say, "well at least we aren't [France]!" is a bit crap.

Also, somewhat foolhardy as we will have no one to trade with if they're all in a mess.

_________________
No, it was a giant robot castle!


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 13:41 
User avatar
Soopah red DS

Joined: 2nd Jun, 2008
Posts: 3214
Excerpt from a Sunday Times article which I think is relevant (albeit specifically concentrating on the FTSE 100). I particularly like: "Bruised by a year of bad predictions, most market experts admit in private that they are broadly clueless right now".

(Iain Dey, Business section 1/1/17)
"All-time highs are overrated. The fact that the FTSE 100 has reached a new historical zenith means very little, really. Stripping back the hype, the index of the 100 UK’s largest companies has hit its highest level since April 2015. In the interim, it fell 20% and then got back to where it started. In fact, the FTSE is still only 3% ahead of its previous “all-time high” on December 30, 1999, just before the dotcom bubble burst. That’s hardly stellar growth over a 17-year period.
In a world of Smithian rational actors, steady growth and stable inflation, the market should logically reach a new all-time high every day.
Until 1999, that’s pretty much what happened — with the index broadly climbing higher, smoothing out blips such as Black Wednesday along the way. The chart for the past two decades looks more like the peaks and troughs of a heart-rate monitor.
In terms of the overall health of the UK market, many of the traditional indicators suggest that all is far from well. The number of takeover deals involving British companies fell by half last year, according to figures from Dealogic. The number of new companies joining the London Stock Exchange dropped 34%, according to PwC.
The gains in the blue-chip index boil down to arithmetic, rather than an arousal of animal spirits. The fall in sterling over the summer boosted foreign earnings for our multinationals, with their shares rising accordingly.
Where does it go from here? Bruised by a year of bad predictions, most market experts admit in private that they are broadly clueless right now. There are just too many variables; mostly the wild array of geopolitical factors discussed by David Smith below. There are also some perverse, counter-intuitive forces at work. Those who see the storm clouds gathering and believe the Project Fear predictions of a gloomy post-Brexit existence should arguably buy more British shares. A weaker outlook for the UK economy would mean sterling weakening further — and thus an additional currency-fuelled pop to the FTSE 100, which makes 80% of its earnings overseas."


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 13:45 
User avatar

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 32619
Lonewolves wrote:
I broadly agree, but Cavey specifically mentioned the FTSE-250.

I didn't read his post. I was replying to Curio.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 13:49 
User avatar
UltraMod

Joined: 27th Mar, 2008
Posts: 55716
Location: California
Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:
I broadly agree, but Cavey specifically mentioned the FTSE-250.

I didn't read his post. I was replying to Curio.

Who was replying to Cavey. Who specifically mentioned the FTSE-250 ;)

Yeah, JBR, I can well believe they are making it up as they go along. It's basically what they've always done. It's a complete crapshoot as to whether it goes right or not. Yet they make millions. So depressing.

_________________
I am currently under construction.
Thank you for your patience.


Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 14:25 
User avatar

Joined: 23rd Nov, 2008
Posts: 9521
Location: The Golden Country
Curiosity wrote:
Ultimately, the companies in the UK that are large enough to be in the FTSE indices are well positioned to take advantage by effectively holding the country to ransom. They know this, the government knows this, and the markets know this (not least because Nissan have already done this).

The companies in the FTSE being okay does not a good country (or good economy) make.


The irritating thing for me here is that, a few months ago people like Gaywood were saying '... don't look at the FTSE100 as that's totally irrelevant to the UK economy, it's the FTSE250 that's the acid test'. Now though of course, with the FTSE250 riding high, goalposts are duly moved. Again. :shrug:

As for your point about Nissan, I reject this almost in its entirety - this is ONE example which, given they're a large manufacturer poised to make multi-billion pound re-tooling and other investments, they're hardly typical of the 250 companies that make up this UK index. It's hardly the case that all, or even a substantial portion of these firms can "hold the country to ransom" (presumably by demanding behind-closed-doors tax rebates just to stay in the UK, even though unlike Nissan, most are actual UK-based firms). It all smacks of tin-foil hat to me.

As for your final point about good FTSE = good country, I repeat what I said to Hearthly, I have *not* said this. Surely we're all able to accept that by merely considering one parameter or metric, I am not *by default* saying this is the only thing that matters...? Good grief man.

_________________
Beware of gavia articulata oculos...

Dr Lave wrote:
Of course, he's normally wrong but interestingly wrong :p


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 14:27 
User avatar

Joined: 23rd Nov, 2008
Posts: 9521
Location: The Golden Country
Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:
I broadly agree, but Cavey specifically mentioned the FTSE-250.

I didn't read his post. I was replying to Curio.


L-lol. :insincere:

_________________
Beware of gavia articulata oculos...

Dr Lave wrote:
Of course, he's normally wrong but interestingly wrong :p


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 14:36 
User avatar

Joined: 12th Apr, 2008
Posts: 17773
Location: Oxford
Bobbyaro wrote:
Kern wrote:

The optimist in me would like to think that in 2042 we look back and see the debris of a collapsed EU project as a move towards greater integration to save the Euro causes unresolved tensions across the bloc to erupt that the structures and politicians can't cope with, whilst we think 'phew, we jumped when we could'. Or perhaps a booming golden era of international trade and influence that some Leavers are promising after an initial bumpy ride. But I'm not Nostradamus and at the moment just can't see this ending well for the country and, in particular, the most disadvantaged and most excluded sectors of society.


I can't help but think that the goal of massive destabilisation and disruption in our neighbours in order to be able to say, "well at least we aren't [France]!" is a bit crap.


I'm willing to admit that my teenage enthusiasm for adopting the Euro as soon as possible was severely misguided. I still have a Euro Monopoly set with replica notes and coins somewhere.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 14:49 
User avatar

Joined: 23rd Nov, 2008
Posts: 9521
Location: The Golden Country
Kern wrote:
I'm willing to admit that my teenage enthusiasm for adopting the Euro as soon as possible was severely misguided. I still have a Euro Monopoly set with replica notes and coins somewhere.


Hindsight's a wonderful thing. :)
I was an arch opponent of the Euro, and still am - though vindication is Pyrrhic of course, I'd have much preferred to have been wrong. But then, I'm an old bastard, and with age, I can well remember first hand the disaster that was the ERM. (I'm not quite old enough for the Gold Standard ;) )

Of course, I myself have been wrong about loads of other stuff, we all have.

_________________
Beware of gavia articulata oculos...

Dr Lave wrote:
Of course, he's normally wrong but interestingly wrong :p


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 14:59 
User avatar
Heavy Metal Tough Guy

Joined: 31st Mar, 2008
Posts: 6513
I'm surprised no one has suggested bringing back the Gold Standard ( or Silver ) once we leave the EU. It seems the sort of thing the fringier types would approve of somehow.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 15:07 
User avatar
UltraMod

Joined: 27th Mar, 2008
Posts: 55716
Location: California
Squirt wrote:
I'm surprised no one has suggested bringing back the Gold Standard ( or Silver ) once we leave the EU. It seems the sort of thing the fringier types would approve of somehow.

We don't have any gold left, do we?

_________________
I am currently under construction.
Thank you for your patience.


Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 15:22 
User avatar

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 32619
Lonewolves wrote:
Squirt wrote:
I'm surprised no one has suggested bringing back the Gold Standard ( or Silver ) once we leave the EU. It seems the sort of thing the fringier types would approve of somehow.

We don't have any gold left, do we?

Easily fixed, just devalue the pound until it reaches however much gold we have.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 15:23 
User avatar
UltraMod

Joined: 27th Mar, 2008
Posts: 55716
Location: California
Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:
Squirt wrote:
I'm surprised no one has suggested bringing back the Gold Standard ( or Silver ) once we leave the EU. It seems the sort of thing the fringier types would approve of somehow.

We don't have any gold left, do we?

Easily fixed, just devalue the pound until it reaches however much gold we have.

You should pitch that in the interview for Carney's job.

_________________
I am currently under construction.
Thank you for your patience.


Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 17:22 
User avatar
SavyGamer

Joined: 29th Apr, 2008
Posts: 7600
For what it's worth I'm not listed on the FTSE but my business has taken a 30% hit since the day of the referendum.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic  [ 6503 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34 ... 131  Next

All times are UTC [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: PRISM, The Greys and 0 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search within this thread:
You are using the 'Ted' forum. Bill doesn't really exist any more. Bogus!
Want to help out with the hosting / advertising costs? That's very nice of you.
Are you on a mobile phone? Try http://beex.co.uk/m/
RIP, Owen. RIP, MrC.

Powered by a very Grim... version of phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group.