Taking the Brexit

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49232

MPs is one thing - ministers is something else entirely.

Kern · **Posted:** Wed Jun 10, 2015 9:17

As expected, the bill passed. The only major opposition, as noted in the Scotxit* thread, came from the SNP. I can't decide if they were arguing against the principle of a referendum or the nature of the one presented.

Incidentally, as this was raised in a couple of interventions from SNP MPs, whilst it might seem odd that a member of the Scottish Parliament, along with other long-term residents from other countries, could be excluded from the Euroref poll, I find it hard to get worked up about the offer. Whilst dual nationality is sometime prohibited in other countries, I've never come across strong demands for non-citizens to vote in general elections and as this is a major constitutional issue I'm content that the franchise offered (general election electors, plus peers, plus those living on the rock) is reasonable.

* The first and only time that phrase will appear on this forum.

Kern · **Posted:** Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:02

So, 'remain or leave' will be the question rather than the 'Yes/No' option. It makes more sense as we're discussing the status quo, although the increase in the number of wordslooks clumsy. Not sure either camp will want to known as 'remain/'leave' rather than the catchier 'In or Out'. Shame I missed an academic who taught me being interviewed on 'PM' last night about this issue.

I think the bill is scheduled to pass its remaining Commons stages next week.

Haven't even begun to get my head around the complexities of Cameron's decision about when to hold the poll.

BikNorton · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 10074

Kern wrote:

the complexities of Cameron's decision

can't tell if serious.

Kern · **Posted:** Thu Sep 03, 2015 6:18

Actually, serious.

It must be held by the end of 2017 according to the bill, and cannot coincide with the elections in May. We can reasonably assume that he wants the vote to keep us in the beloved organisation too.

Leave it too late and let opposition build up, especially within his own party. Have it too early and risk being overtaken by events. Also, consider forthcoming French and German elections over this period and what Cameron might want from other countries might not play with Merkel and Hollandes' plans for their campaigns and what they might be willing to concede might vary as their elections approach. The UK will also be preparing for its turn in the big Brussels chair near the end of this window, and negotiating to leave whilst in that position might be awkward.

I love the game of politics.

Kern · **Posted:** Tue Sep 08, 2015 14:04

Speaking of games, over at 'Wings over the Westcountry', there's a post complaining that the BBC didn't include SNP members in its report on the vote to ditch the government's 'purdah-lite' provisions in the Bill.

Funnily enough, ['the author'] omits to mention which party was the only one to vote against the Bill. I'm still not sure what their opposition to a referendum is based on, other than their arguments in favour of an extended franchise and a federal-style quadruple lock.

Kern · **Posted:** Thu Nov 19, 2015 10:02

Their Lordships voted to enfranchise 16 & 17 year olds. Not sure if the Commons will overturn this, either on principle or because an extended game of ping-pong would delay enactment and the vote.

I'm still on the fence about this, but there's a lot to be said for the benefits of being able to get some dutch courage before entering the polling booth when faced with two equally unappetising choices.

As some Lords and Ladies noted, this goes against the trend in recent years to raise the age to do things from 16 to 18.

Kern · **Posted:** Wed Jan 20, 2016 18:51

There's an interesting piece by one of my old tutors on the Constitution Unit's blog about the procedure for leaving the EU. The main argument, echoing a similar piece in Prospect last month is that it'd be tricky because the deal would be between us and the 27 other countries .

romanista · **Posted:** Thu Jan 28, 2016 15:43

did i already post luyendijks article here? http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... are_btn_fb we've been too nice..

Kern · **Posted:** Fri Jan 29, 2016 9:17

I'm not sure that approach is likely to make people love the EU.

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britai ... KKCN0VC0XW

Quote:

Dubbing it a farce, a joke and a delusion - Britain's largely eurosceptic press ripped into a deal to keep the country in the European Union on Wednesday, accusing Prime Minister David Cameron of selling out.
...
"Your Brussels deal has done nothing to halt migrants, nothing to win powers back for Britain," said the Sun, which is owned by one of the world's most powerful media barons, Rupert Murdoch. "Sorry prime minister, but ... it stinks."

The Daily Mail also poured scorn on the deal, by saying Cameron stood accused of "delusion and selling the country short", while the more centrist Financial Times said the British leader faced a battle to sell the plan to his own lawmakers.
...
Cameron will address parliament later on Wednesday, where he will face tough questions from British lawmakers, including eurosceptics from his ruling Conservative Party who have not been shy about criticizing it. One of them, former Defense Secretary Liam Fox, said the deal was little more than "empty promises".

I guess we know which way the press is going to jump, then, as it seems unlikely Cameron will get any more out of the EU than he has negotiated in this deal. I imagine the chances of the referendum outcome being a vote to leave the EU just went up by a lot.

Kern · **Posted:** Wed Feb 03, 2016 12:13

I reckon people's fear of change will swing things the 'remain' camp's way, especially as there are serious divisions within the various leave groups and few big hitters backing Brexit. The EU also isn't really a salient issue for most people most of the time. Unless there's a repeat of last summer's migrant situation it is not going to be on their agenda. Cameron needs to get it over before the summer, however, to stop this possibility occurring.

Kern · **Posted:** Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:31

The topic came up over lunch with friends on Saturday. Most said they didn't know enough to make a decision and didn't know where to start. I suggested they thought about an issue that mattered to them and investigated what role, if any, the EU played in it and whether they felt satisfied with what they discovered. I also pointed out that there were plenty of left-wing Eurosceptic arguments that aren't heard as much as the current focus on immigration. I was at loss about what books or articles would be a good place to start, unless they really have the time to plough through Hugo Young's masterful 'This Blessed Plot'.

I think on both sides the debate is going to be about the EU/UK we would like, rather than the EU/UK we've got.

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49232

I suspect a good portion of the debate will be regarding the EU/UK that people seem to bizarrely imagine we have.

Kern · **Posted:** Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:14

Cras wrote:

I suspect a good portion of the debate will be regarding the EU/UK that people seem to bizarrely imagine we have.

Heh, that too.

markg · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 16558

The debate will be about whatever Rupert Murdoch wants it to be about.

Kern · **Posted:** Sat Feb 20, 2016 13:50

23rd June! Are you excited?

Malc · **Posted:** Sat Feb 20, 2016 15:08

Is it still over 18s only?

I assume it is, which is a shame, as if it was 2 weeks later, my eldest son would old enough to vote in it.

Malc · **Posted:** Sat Feb 20, 2016 15:15

Bah, quick look on the bbc site, confirms it's 18+

he will be disappointed

JohnCoffey · **Posted:** Sat Feb 20, 2016 15:26

I don't ever vote, ever. I will be voting on this though.

Grim... · **Posted:** Sat Feb 20, 2016 15:36

The middle class are all at Glastonbury, which might cause an upset.

Curiosity · **Posted:** Sat Feb 20, 2016 15:49

Grim... wrote:

The middle class are all at Glastonbury, which might cause an upset.

I shall be postal voting.

Bamba · **Joined:** 25th Jul, 2010 **Posts:** 11128

JohnCoffey wrote:

I don't ever vote, ever. I will be voting on this though.

MaliA · **Posted:** Sat Feb 20, 2016 23:50

It'd be really interesting to see what happens if the Brexit does happen. How it would all unravel.

MrChris · **Joined:** 1st Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 30498

Fucking. Nightmare.

MrChris · **Joined:** 1st Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 30498

Zombies eating children on the streets. That sort of thing

Mr Dave · **Posted:** Sat Feb 20, 2016 23:57

I'd rather not find out quite how interesting that is.

:/

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49232

MrChris wrote:

Fucking. Nightmare.

ToyST

MrChris · **Joined:** 1st Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 30498

I will cut you.

Curiosity · **Posted:** Sun Feb 21, 2016 1:09

MrChris wrote:

I will cut you.

ToyST.

Curiosity · **Posted:** Sun Feb 21, 2016 1:09

MaliA wrote:

It'd be really interesting to see what happens if the Brexit does happen. How it would all unravel.

It'd massively fuck over Lloyd's (of London) where I do all my work. So I am against it.

Though obviously we get, like, two years to sort out all the shit. It'd just be an annoying two years.

Kern · **Posted:** Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:58

Not sure that 'Vote Remain or the bankers get it' is going to be a winning slogan. But then, neither is a campaign fronted by Messers Farage and Galloway.

Quote:

Though obviously we get, like, two years to sort out all the shit. It'd just be an annoying two years.

I'm not certain the other EU countries will be generous with their terms , but an aggressive deal might end up hurting everyone.

Kern · **Posted:** Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:15

Heh. The eloquent Kate Hoey (who should be leading the leave camp) just noted on the Marr Show that the vote falls after the group stages of Euro 2016.

MaliA · **Posted:** Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:40

It'd be awful. Yes. But interesting to see how it would all pan out.

Joans · **Joined:** 31st Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 8648

We were talking about this last night. Jokingly, could England be disqualified if we're no longer in the EU, but also will it swing some voters if they've been knocked out (or are still in).

Kern · **Posted:** Sun Feb 21, 2016 11:19

I really hope we get plenty of pity points at Eurovision this year.

And I've just realised I'll be in Berlin that night so will be able to do my bit.

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... t-campaign

Sterling down 1.1%, sharpest drop in a year. The economic benefits of Brexit are shaping up nicely!

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

Also Zac Goldsmith will campaign for Brexit. I moved to London to work in an office staffed predominantly by the best and brightest recruited from across Europe, taking advantage of visaless migration [0]. I look forward to heckling his supporters with this next time I see them handing out leaflets.

[0] Along my row of desks: Greek, me, French, Irish, Italian. Behind me: Polish, Czech, Romanian, and American. 7/9 working here under EU citizenship.

Curiosity · **Posted:** Mon Feb 22, 2016 10:35

I understand Boris going against the EU as a nakedly political move.

Goldsmith is just fucking bonkers. The City is overwhelmingly in favour of EU integration.

MaliA · **Posted:** Mon Feb 22, 2016 10:36

Curiosity wrote:

I understand Boris going against the EU as a nakedly political move.

Goldsmith is just fucking bonkers. The City is overwhelmingly in favour of EU integration.

I agree with this.

Malc · **Posted:** Mon Feb 22, 2016 10:39

I Imagine Goldsmith thinks the stance will help him win the Mayoral Election, so his is presumably a political move too?

markg · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 16558

Curiosity wrote:

I understand Boris going against the EU as a nakedly political move.

Goldsmith is just fucking bonkers. The City is overwhelmingly in favour of EU integration.

Don't see the difference, Goldsmith is trying to get elected as mayor isn't he? i.e what Malc just said.

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

markg wrote:

Curiosity wrote:

I understand Boris going against the EU as a nakedly political move.

Goldsmith is just fucking bonkers. The City is overwhelmingly in favour of EU integration.

Don't see the difference, Goldsmith is trying to get elected as mayor isn't he?

Sure, but Boris isn't. Boris is trying to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. It doesn't matter what the London elecotrate thinks of him now; now he has to court the party and the UK-wide electorate.

Kern · **Posted:** Mon Feb 22, 2016 10:47

Doctor Glyndwr wrote:

Along my row of desks: Greek, me, French, Irish, Italian. Behind me: Polish, Czech, Romanian, and American. 7/9 working here under EU citizenship.

This is the reason I'm hesitant to plump for out. There's a lot I don't like about the EU, but visaless migration is not one of them. Heck, it should be extended to US, Canadians, Kiwis, Ozzies, Indians etc (and not worry about reciprocity either).

markg · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 16558

Doctor Glyndwr wrote:

markg wrote:

Curiosity wrote:

I understand Boris going against the EU as a nakedly political move.

Goldsmith is just fucking bonkers. The City is overwhelmingly in favour of EU integration.

Don't see the difference, Goldsmith is trying to get elected as mayor isn't he?

Sure, but Boris isn't. Boris is trying to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. It doesn't matter what the London elecotrate thinks of him now; now he has to court the party and the UK-wide electorate.

I know but I was replying to Curiosity's point that he could understand Johnson's position as politically motivated but that Goldsmith was "just fucking bonkers" because The City are in favour of integration. Perhaps mistakenly I took The City to mean all the financial fucknuggets rather the general population of London.

Curiosity · **Posted:** Mon Feb 22, 2016 10:52

markg wrote:

Curiosity wrote:

I understand Boris going against the EU as a nakedly political move.

Goldsmith is just fucking bonkers. The City is overwhelmingly in favour of EU integration.

Don't see the difference, Goldsmith is trying to get elected as mayor isn't he? i.e what Malc just said.

What I mean is:

Boris doesn't really care about London any more, so can lose popularity there if it gains him popularity around the country. I don't think he's too bothered either way about the EU thing, but is playing the longer game of trying to become Prime Minister.

Goldsmith is trying to become Mayor of London, which represents The City amongst other things. The City is strongly pro-EU on the whole, so Goldsmith's stance would appear to set him against the electorate he is trying to court. I would also expect Londoners, being a more metropolitan and diverse bunch, to be more likely to vote IN. Which means if Goldsmith is voting OUT as a political move, it seems to be a stupid one.

Though I may have misread the mood/polling of Londoners as a whole.

markg · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 16558

Curiosity wrote:

Though I may have misread the mood/polling of Londoners as a whole.

Yeah, I was just assuming that this must mean that he's been advised that it'll be a vote winner.

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

[quote="Curiosity"Goldsmith is trying to become Mayor of London, which represents The City amongst other things. The City is strongly pro-EU on the whole, so Goldsmith's stance would appear to set him against the electorate he is trying to court. I would also expect Londoners, being a more metropolitan and diverse bunch, to be more likely to vote IN. Which means if Goldsmith is voting OUT as a political move, it seems to be a stupid one.[/quote]Not just the financial meaning of City, either. Tech is in that bucket too.

Quote:

Though I may have misread the mood/polling of Londoners as a whole.

I wonder if he'll blame ridiculous house prices on immigrants.

DavPaz · **Joined:** 27th Jun, 2008 **Posts:** 38460

Doctor Glyndwr wrote:

Also Zac Goldsmith will campaign for Brexit. I moved to London to work in an office staffed predominantly by the best and brightest recruited from across Europe, taking advantage of visaless migration [0]. I look forward to heckling his supporters with this next time I see them handing out leaflets.

[0] Along my row of desks: Greek, me, French, Irish, Italian. Behind me: Polish, Czech, Romanian, and American. 7/9 working here under EU citizenship.

It's incredible that the American is probably more secure that the Irish.

Kern · **Posted:** Mon Feb 22, 2016 11:36

DavPaz wrote:

It's incredible that the American is probably more secure that the Irish.

No, because our relationship to Ireland is very different to that with other EU countries. Any Irish citizen resident here has full citizenship rights, up to and including voting in general elections.

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Taking the Brexit

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