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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 16:53 
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The amusing thing about this, of course, is that you actually agree with me; we both of us think it's the Tories' fault we had this referendum, and we also both agree it would've come to a head in a year or two anyway without it. (We even agree on the reasons for this - the press). Not sure you fully understand the implications of what you're saying, so let me spell it out: we agree.

No, the only issue I had was that, despite all of the above, you were still claiming I needed to "tell myself" stuff (i.e. act in a self-delusional fashion), whereas actually, I'm pretty much the only one around here who does openly and honestly admit to the manifold faults of those whom I offer (qualified) support, and indeed, my politics in general.

So in conclusion, then, happy to have cleared this one up for you, Mark. :)

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 17:01 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Cavey wrote:
I'm still waiting for an acknowledgement of Labour's catastrophic failures in office, even 'just' the big ones i.e. their lack of banking regulation

Oh, we're back on this.

Cras wrote:
Come on, man. I've never voted labour a day in my life, I'm anything but an apologist. I'd suggest that I am most likely to be the forum's best informed person (dubious honour though that is) on financial regulatory matters, however. There is no such thing as a UK financial regulatory environment. There hasn't been a UK financial regulatory environment since the eighties. Every single piece of regulation is agreed by every regulator. The reasons for this should be obvious - the minute one place becomes overly onerous to operate in, banks will shift operations elsewhere. That's why we never ended up with the 'Robin Hood Tax', or similar. The UK makes too much from the City to enforce any punishing level of regulation, and most other countries are in the same boat.

So what you have is effectively a cartel. A global group of banks, and a global group of regulators. Now the regulators do a decent job of tightening up the rules - Basel3 is a great example of something done post-crash to greatly improve the survivability of financial institutions by enforcing higher capital reserves - but everything they do is agreement by committee. If the UK wants to triple capital reserves and the US doesn't, it flat out doesn't happen.

So the light-touch banking regulation absolutely cannot be put at New Labour's door. It just can't. Literally the only thing they could have done is stood up, said 'fuck banking', implemented entirely their own UK-specific regulatory environment, and gutted the country's economy overnight.

Now, how the crisis was handled, you can absolutely blame Labour for, if you like. The response to it was entirely within their own control. Should they have bailed out the banks? I say yes, but of course that's motivated in no small measure by self-interest. Even without self-interest, of course, you're talking about a huge number of jobs and a massive impact to customers if the businesses go under. A lot of the choices that were made were excellent ones - the Special Liquidity scheme, as well as underwriting the FSCS to make sure that customers didn't lose their money when the banks did. There's plenty of arguments to be made on both sides there, of course.


We're not "back on" anything. In your mind, one solitary post which may have gone unanswered (I can't recall) counts as some kind of 'vindication' and a line drawn, conveniently ignoring literally hundreds of other posts that I, and others have made, before and since. But this is precisely the syndrome I'm talking about: one can argue about degrees of culpability on the part of Labour, the banks in London, the banks in New York and the US government, but only a delusional imbecile would believe there was no such culpability on the part of the then UK government, whose immutable, undeniable duty it was, and is, to successfully and effectively regulate the banks (whether you like it or not).

If you're dregdging up old posts, Gaywood, you might like to find those ones where I directly quote senior members of that Labour administration publicly apologizing very specifically for these horrendous mistakes - but I forget, according to you they didn't really mean it or whatever it was you said. So even when you hear it from multiple horses' mouths, you still refuse to accept or believe it - because that is what we are talking about here. You, and others like you are simply unable to accept it - temperamentally or whatever else.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 17:12 
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Ah, here we are, all of 10 seconds Googling.

Quote:
Gordon Brown has admitted he made a "big mistake" over the handling of financial regulation in the run-up to the banking crisis of 2008.

The former prime minister told a US conference he had not realised the "entanglements" of global institutions.
He said: "We set up the FSA [the City regulator] believing the problem would come from the failure of an individual institution. That was the big mistake.
"We didn't understand just how entangled things were."

Mr Brown said he had to "accept my responsibility" but added he was not the only one who had made mistakes.
'Global meltdown'

Conservative Party deputy chairman Michael Fallon said: "These are the first words of contrition Gordon Brown has uttered in his entire political career.

"But he hasn't apologised for doubling the debt, selling off the gold and leaving our children and grandchildren paying the bills for his mistakes."


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13032013

I mean, the guy was only the Chancellor of the Exchequer continuously from 1997 onwards, and Prime Minister before, during and after.

:roll: :insincere:

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 17:14 
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Interesting how you only put stock into what someone is saying once they agree with you. I thought he was totally incompetent? Maybe he's wrong about that too. ;)

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 17:20 
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What, so you think Brown (and Balls also btw) are *so* clueless and incompetent so as not to even realise that they and their Party somehow had no culpability at all in all of this after all...?

Man, that's truly desperate; this contorted alternative reality-construct stuff must take *a lot* of energy.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 17:35 
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That's not what I'm saying at all. :D

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 17:41 
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Regardless of how we differ on the banking crisis (and nobody ever, myself included has said that the labour government had zero culpability), I don't think there's a single person here who doesn't think that the Iraq war was an unmitigated disaster that we should never have been involved in, and that Labour (or at very least Blair and his cronies) were utterly responsible for our involvement. And that's been repeated very often.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 17:44 
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Excellent. So we're agreed. :)

Whatever the demerits of the Brexit referendum, and they're pretty bad to be sure, these pale to insignificance when compared to the Financial Crisis or Iraq/Afghanistan.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 17:47 
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Ish ;)

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 17:48 
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Cras wrote:
Ish ;)


I'll take it. Cigar old chap? :)

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 17:54 
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Cavey wrote:
Cras wrote:
Ish ;)


I'll take it. Cigar old chap? :)


Absolutely - the tariffs on them are going to be insane in a couple of years' time...

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 18:18 
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Cavey wrote:
Excellent. So we're agreed. :)

Whatever the demerits of the Brexit referendum, and they're pretty bad to be sure, these pale to insignificance when compared to the Financial Crisis or Iraq/Afghanistan.


I suspect for people living in Britain, brexit may well eclipse the financial crisis by quite some margin. And I similarly suspect given quite what it's done, we'll be pulled into any other wars Bannon is aiming for.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 18:36 
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Sneaky edit on the second paragraph, Cavey! That was added after I replied!

On Brexit, I think it will be worse overall for the country than the Financial crisis. I think it will destroy international trade, though admittedly potentially only in the short to medium term. I think it will cause increases in austerity, to compensate for reduction in the tax take. I think it will damage our leadership in science and engineering to lose both EU funding and skilled immigrants, and I think it will, and already has, bolster nationalistic and xenophobic attitudes in the country at large.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 18:40 
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Oh, sorry Cras, entirely unintentional - not my style.
Sure you can tell from your mod stuff that the edit was virtually immediate after I posted? I am comfortable that my arguments stack up reasonably okay without resorting to sneaky little tricks, especially with you. (Edit: I mean that in the sense that I respect you, not that your arguments don't stack up, oh never mind you know what I mean :p )

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 18:40 
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Cavey wrote:
Oh, sorry Cras, entirely unintentional - not my style.
Sure you can tell from your mod stuff that the edit was virtually immediate after I posted?


Don't doubt you! Just means I agree with you a bit less, is all ;)

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 18:42 
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Ach. No worries, you still get your cigar. :D

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 19:12 
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I'm not a big fan of cigars but am enjoying some nice red wine.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 20:06 
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The only potential silver lining I can see is that the U.S. is pissing of its more liberal people, a lot of whom are at the more intelligent end of the scale. The UK should be pushing hard to make it easy to get these people over here, doing tech start ups, etc.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 20:16 
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Bobbyaro wrote:
doing tech start ups, etc.

Losing freedom of movement with the EU is very bad for the UK tech startup scene. Startups have a strong requirement to recruit the best people they can, but they don't have time or money to spend on sorting out visas. London has enjoyed some success to date because it can easily pull people from all over Europe; but it was already hampered by being too expensive. Post-Brexit I think it'll become less desirable as a place to set up shop.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 20:51 
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On a personal note I worry because Glasgow is a big tech site for Evil Inc as they hire massively from Glasgow University; the majority of whom are foreign grads who're very happy to graduate straight into a good job and stay in the city. If Brexit makes it harder for students to study here in the first place, or stay here afterwards, then the entire setup is probably fucked and I imagine it'll get moved to Germany or wherever. Which will then also be true for our tech hub in Bournemouth, and hundreds of people are suddenly dumped onto the job market. It's a fucking shitshow waiting to happen. To be fair, thus far the company has confirmed it's commitment to the UK tech sites and are even continuing to hire massively in Scotland but of course they'll dump that whole ethos of it becomes too problematic to operate.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 21:49 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Bobbyaro wrote:
doing tech start ups, etc.

Losing freedom of movement with the EU is very bad for the UK tech startup scene. Startups have a strong requirement to recruit the best people they can, but they don't have time or money to spend on sorting out visas. London has enjoyed some success to date because it can easily pull people from all over Europe; but it was already hampered by being too expensive. Post-Brexit I think it'll become less desirable as a place to set up shop.


Exactly why we should be trying to poach the U.S.people who are hacked off, especially as they will most likely only speak English.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 22:01 
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Bobbyaro wrote:
Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Bobbyaro wrote:
doing tech start ups, etc.

Losing freedom of movement with the EU is very bad for the UK tech startup scene. Startups have a strong requirement to recruit the best people they can, but they don't have time or money to spend on sorting out visas. London has enjoyed some success to date because it can easily pull people from all over Europe; but it was already hampered by being too expensive. Post-Brexit I think it'll become less desirable as a place to set up shop.


Exactly why we should be trying to poach the U.S.people who are hacked off, especially as they will most likely only speak English.


I'm not really sure what you're saying here. The language thing was never a barrier for that demographic (English is and continues to be the common language for tech and most other industries worldwide) and if Brexit impacts immigration to the UK then Americans will be hit as hard as anyone else. With Brexit looming, starting up a new company in the UK becomes massively less attractive across the board.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 11:55 
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All this talk of 'ending freedom of movement' I'm hearing from the government and Brexit supporters never seems to mention that it ends for us as well. I'm seriously angry about this, and I'm yet to hear any MP actually argue in favour of us losing the right to freely travel, work, and study in 27 other countries.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 13:45 
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https://www.ft.com/content/a9ecd5aa-fcd ... e3738f9ae4

Quote:

BMW considers making electric Mini outside UK because of Brexit

Move to quit EU sparks uncertainty over where to manufacture battery-driven car

BMW is considering making an electric version of the Mini outside the UK because of the uncertainty posed by Britain’s decision to leave the EU.

The German carmaker has owned the British marque since 1994 and manufactures all but two models in the UK.

But the first battery-powered edition of the car, which is set to go on sale in 2019, may be manufactured on the continent, the company said.


BMW said a final decision would be taken this year, adding “we’ve got to make sure we have the best business case possible”.

Spokeswoman Emma Begley said: “The result of the EU referendum creates uncertainty for the automotive sector in general and for overseas investors in particular. Uncertainty is not helpful when it comes to making long-term business decisions.”
Sounds like the opening salvo in a negotiation where BMW thinks it has the upper hand.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 13:47 
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"What's that deal you did with Nissan? We want some of that."

This could get expensive.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 13:57 
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Lonewolves wrote:
"What's that deal you did with Nissan? We want some of that."
Yeah, that's how I read it too.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 13:59 
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They'd be stupid not to, to be honest.

Vauxhall need to get on that gravy train.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 14:04 
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And Honda, Renault, and the rest.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 14:13 
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I suppose it partially depends how credible their alternatives are in each case. They aren't all going to automatically be taken seriously if there's any suspicion that they're not. Ditching a whole workforce, building a new car plant and then training another one probably isn't free.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 14:15 
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markg wrote:
Ditching a whole workforce, building a new car plant and then training another one probably isn't free.
There's a reason BMW have started this conversation about "where are we going to invest in the new facilities to build this new product line." There's little sunk cost at stake.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 14:15 
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markg wrote:
I suppose it partially depends how credible their alternatives are in each case. They aren't all going to automatically be taken seriously if there's any suspicion that they're not. Ditching a whole workforce, building a new car plant and then training another one probably isn't free.


But if you have to do it anyway, why not change Plant Europe, rather than Plant UK?

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2017 9:35 
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I could only find the full text of John Major's speech on the Daily Mirror's website. He makes some very good points on both the nature of Brexit and the politics of it, the majority of which I agree with.

Quote:
My hunch is that, over the years ahead, the political price of leaving the EU may turn out to be greater than the economic cost.


Quote:
Many believed this, yet the bitter irony is that the “divorce settlement” – that is, the cost of leaving Europe – may involve paying out much larger sums of money than that.

The EU Chief Negotiator has estimated that our bill for exit may total between €40 billion to €60 billion.

I find this figure very contentious. But the bill will be substantial: billions, not millions, and very unpalatable. It will come as a nasty shock to voters who were not forewarned of this – even in the recent White Paper.


Quote:
if cars and aerospace were to get favourable deals, why not textiles and widgets? How would the Government soothe the ire of those not receiving preferential treatment?


I've yet to hear any of the leading Leavers provide a riposte that isn't an ad hominem.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2017 14:32 
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Bmw to build eMini in Europe, says a man in The Twitter because Brexit

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2017 14:35 
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MaliA wrote:
Bmw to build eMini in Europe, says a man in The Twitter because Brexit


Yeah, but they'll still want to sell them here, won't they? Eh? Eh?


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2017 14:36 
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Kern wrote:
MaliA wrote:
Bmw to build eMini in Europe, says a man in The Twitter because Brexit


Yeah, but they'll still want to sell them here, won't they? Eh? Eh?


Hang on, it's a German news article from yesterday and appears that it is more likely than not to build it in Europe, skim reading it. So, no advance on Gaywood from yesterday

http://m.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen ... ww&ref=rss

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2017 14:37 
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As already discussed, they want favours from the government. What is this? The 1970s? :0

But seriously, if they do go to Germany, that's a heck of a blow to Oxford. Still, I guess we could use the land for housing.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 03, 2017 14:52 
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Scorching thread on Twitter from someone who owns a (profitable) farm and is now buying up the Brexit-voting neighbouring farms for heavy discounts because they're not going to be sustainable without EU subsidies.

https://twitter.com/ImAnitaSharma/statu ... 1441240064


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 03, 2017 15:04 
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I can't believe it was only recently I read the classic fable of King Log.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 03, 2017 15:11 
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In other Brexit news, today I borrowed two books from the library:

- 'Brexit: what the hell happens now?' by Ian Dunt
- 'What next?' by Daniel Hannan

I'll toss a coin to decide the reading order (Sad then happy, or happy then sad?) , but probably only after I finished George Saunders' 'CivilWarLand in Bad Decline' and possibly Steinbeck's 'Of Mice and Men' both of which I also took out today.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 03, 2017 15:12 
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Daniel "absolutely no one is talking about leaving the single market" Hannan?

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 03, 2017 15:13 
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Funny that, I bought Tim Shipman's All Out War: The Full Story of How Brexit Sank Britain's Political Class last week. Haven't started it yet, haven't been in the mood for non-fiction.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 03, 2017 15:14 
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Lonewolves wrote:
Daniel "absolutely no one is talking about leaving the single market" Hannan?


The very same. Also, absolutely no one is talking about Magna Carta and the Levellers either.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 03, 2017 15:15 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Funny that, I bought Tim Shipman's All Out War: The Full Story of How Brexit Sank Britain's Political Class last week. Haven't started it yet, haven't been in the mood for non-fiction.


I read it over New Year. It's a heck of fast-paced pageturner.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 03, 2017 15:17 
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I also recently subscribed to the 'New European', because I'm old-school when it comes to my echo-chambers. It's more bath-friendly too.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Fri Mar 03, 2017 15:23 
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Kern wrote:
It's more bath-friendly too.


:attitude:

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 0:12 
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http://news.sky.com/story/uk-prices-ris ... sf-twitter

Quote:
Prices in the UK are now rising at an annual rate of more than 3% in the latest evidence of economic fallout from the EU referendum, according to figures seen by Sky News.

The sharp jump implies that real incomes are falling for the first time since 2014 - the clearest sign yet that households are being squeezed as a result of the decision to leave the EU.

While the UK's official inflation measure, the consumer price index, was 1.8% in January - well below the 2.7% annual rate at which wages are rising - economists have warned that because many of the CPI datapoints are collected manually the index is sometimes slow to reflect sharp changes in prices.

A well-respected measure of UK prices devised by MIT economists and collected from retailers online shows prices have been rising much faster lately.

Philip Hammond will present his first full Budget on Wednesday, but don't expect any fireworks

The PriceStats inflation measure, published by State Street and seen by Sky News, shows that while prices were only rising at an annual rate of less than 1% before the referendum, the rate has risen to 3.3% in recent weeks.

The statistics imply that real wages, pay growth adjusted for inflation, may now be falling at an annual rate of 0.6% - compared with the positive 0.9% growth rate implied by the official inflation data.

We're a net importer in lots of key market segments and our currency is in the shitter. There's a lag from that before we feel the effects in the market but I think it's happening now.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 7:40 
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Shame we can't just tax every stupid fucking thimble-brained cunt who voted for this shite.


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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 9:01 
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markg wrote:
Shame we can't just tax every stupid fucking thimble-brained cunt who voted for this shite.

Well, we can. It's just we'd have to tax everyone else, too.

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 9:24 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
http://news.sky.com/story/uk-prices-rising-faster-after-brexit-vote-10792922?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

Quote:
Prices in the UK are now rising at an annual rate of more than 3% in the latest evidence of economic fallout from the EU referendum, according to figures seen by Sky News.

The sharp jump implies that real incomes are falling for the first time since 2014 - the clearest sign yet that households are being squeezed as a result of the decision to leave the EU.

While the UK's official inflation measure, the consumer price index, was 1.8% in January - well below the 2.7% annual rate at which wages are rising - economists have warned that because many of the CPI datapoints are collected manually the index is sometimes slow to reflect sharp changes in prices.

A well-respected measure of UK prices devised by MIT economists and collected from retailers online shows prices have been rising much faster lately.

Philip Hammond will present his first full Budget on Wednesday, but don't expect any fireworks

The PriceStats inflation measure, published by State Street and seen by Sky News, shows that while prices were only rising at an annual rate of less than 1% before the referendum, the rate has risen to 3.3% in recent weeks.

The statistics imply that real wages, pay growth adjusted for inflation, may now be falling at an annual rate of 0.6% - compared with the positive 0.9% growth rate implied by the official inflation data.

We're a net importer in lots of key market segments and our currency is in the shitter. There's a lag from that before we feel the effects in the market but I think it's happening now.

But the FTSE 250 doing as well as it was 3 years ago means we're all rich now surely?

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 Post subject: Re: Taking the Brexit
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 9:28 
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I'm so rich I now only eat food from the Tesco Finest ready meal and pizza range. (This is because their normal stuff had taken a definite dive in the quality of the ingredients, and they started bulking out the curries with potatoes and suchlike.)

So they've managed to maintain the same prices (so far at least), but with obvious compromises on quality.

I'm quite the gourmand when it comes to ready meals and as such make a good canary in the mine on this stuff.

Oh yes and their own brand lemonade is 12p more expensive than it used to be.

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