Taking the Brexit

Kern · **Posted:** Tue Jan 10, 2017 14:40

Trooper wrote:

Unlikely, the state of the subsidies is entirely due to the UK. The EU just give a bunch of cash to each country, most countries do a simple handout based on some simple rules they cooked up. It's only the UK that has over a thousand different schemes you can apply for, and the money handed out is not fixed, its dependent on how many people asked for it in your area, in a lot of cases.
The subsidy chaos and bureaucracy is entirely of our own making.

Thanks for this. I'll have to look into the issue in more detail. I was always under the impression that it was a big stitch-up by the French before we were let in but clearly that's just a useful stereotype. Admittedly, as with most aspects of the EU, the second we get into the intricacies of an issue, the quicker the eyes begin to glaze over...

Kern · **Posted:** Wed Jan 11, 2017 14:50

Guardian: Britain considering £1,000-a-year levy for skilled EU workers

Gee, that will do wonders for our scientific and high-tech industries.

Quote:

“It would be helpful to the British economy and to British workers who feel they are overlooked because of other people coming into the country getting jobs they would themselves like to get,” he said.

Perhaps we import the workers to these key sectors because we don't have the skills? Present company excepted of course

Grim... · **Posted:** Wed Jan 11, 2017 15:45

In fairness, if I had two candidates who were equally skilled but one was going to take £10k less then I'm going to choose the one that's £10k less - I don't care where he's from. If that starts causing a race to the bottom for wages that's not A Good Thing.

The question is - is there evidence to show that skilled (or unskilled) non-brits are asking for less wages?

Cavey · **Posted:** Wed Jan 11, 2017 16:51

Anyone who says influx of EU migrant workers hasn't resulted in massively depressed workers' wages hasn't worked on a building site, or in construction generally.

Personally I think this is a good thing for the Country, but still. Easy for me to say, I wouldn't be saying that if I were a plumber, labourer, spark or chippy...

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

Cavey wrote:

Anyone who says influx of EU migrant workers hasn't resulted in massively depressed workers' wages hasn't worked on a building site, or in construction generally.

Personally I think this is a good thing for the Country, but still. Easy for me to say, I wouldn't be saying that if I were a plumber, labourer, spark or chippy...

Data says no
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research ... swp574.pdf

Quote:

We find that the ratio of EU to non-EU immigrants has a very small impact on wages, and is only significant in the dynamic model (Table 6). The table tells us that a 10% rise in immigration, and constant EU/non-EU immigrant ratio, would lower overall wages by 0.33%. But if a 10% rise in immigration was such that the EU/non-EU immigrant share also rose by 10%, overall wages would likely fall by 0.31%. These differences are tiny. It tells us that impact of immigration on wages is driven mainly by the overall total stock of immigration, with its composition — EU vs non-EU — having a second order impact.

Does this result hold within different occupations? Broadly yes. Table 7 shows that the EU immigrant share is only significant for semi/unskilled services. This means that if the immigrant share in this occupational group was to rise by 10%, with a corresponding 10% rise in the share of EU immigrants, the downward impact on wages would be 1.8% as opposed to 2.1% if there were no change in the EU share. This differential impact between Staff Working Paper No. 574 December 2015 an EU and non-EU immigrants on wages is larger for the semi/unskilled services sector that the aggregate figures, but nevertheless these are relatively small differences.

Cavey · **Posted:** Wed Jan 11, 2017 19:57

I'm not talking about non EU migration, ratios of non EU vs. EU immigration or earnings, or even making any comment at all about the economy at large - just EU labour influx on skilled U.K. Construction industry site workers.

Like I say, as far as I'm concerned it's a good thing; back in the early 2000s we had plumbers earning £80k plus, because supply and demand, whereas for now at least, there's a ready supply of very well trained and educated, non unionised, skilled operatives with an excellent work ethic. However, to say it's made no difference, you'd have to have glue in your eyes, sorry.

In my view, the biggest mistake we could make is to refuse to acknowledge that some of those millions of Brexiteers of the working class have NO basis for any perceived grievance, however uncomfortable it might well be, and however much we disagree with sentiment etc.

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

Sunday Times leading tomorrow with claims that May will announce a hard brexit strategy this week. Downing Street expects a "market correction."

Hearthly · **Joined:** 11th May, 2008 **Posts:** 13382

Sounds like they've got it all worked out then, nothing to be concerned about.

Fortunately the party of economic competence is at the helm.

Curiosity · **Posted:** Sun Jan 15, 2017 1:47

It's amazing that she's going for a harder Brexit than even the hardline Brexit campaigners were asking for at the time of the referendum. There really isn't a mandate for this foolishness.

Hero of Excellence · **Joined:** 23rd Nov, 2008 **Posts:** 674

It'll have to be the Tories that stop this. As in the 'sensible' wing of the party that realises how much Hard Brexit will trash the economy, far beyond what events like Black Wednesday ever did, and act out of political self preservation.

Labour can't be trusted as they have a total loon as a leader, a lifetime eurosceptic, and the whole parliamentary Labour party seems to have drank the Brexit Kool Aid.

Grim... · **Posted:** Sun Jan 15, 2017 2:18

Hero of Excellence wrote:

the whole parliamentary Labour party seems to have drank the Brexit Kool Aid.

Or they've resigned.

Hero of Excellence · **Joined:** 23rd Nov, 2008 **Posts:** 674

Doctor Glyndwr wrote:

This Corbyn thing is being portrayed as a lurch to the right but I don't see that at all. Rather, I'd argue it's a left-wing isolationist philosophy: British workers must be protected (literally, labour over capital), and migration is hurting them by lowering wages [1], so we must limit migration. I also think for many people, Corbyn included, immigration is tangled up with globalisation and the latter is also an issue for Labour as it contributes significantly to income inequality.

I still think it's a shambles, mind. Just a lefty shambles.

Oh, incidentally I share a very similar analysis and conclusion, TBH. Corbyn's at heart as deeply eurosceptic as Farage, looking at his political history, and he's ideologically wedded to the authoritarian, old-style Bennite left which I don't identify with at all. Personally, I've never called myself a socialist, I've always been sceptical of unions, and regard centralised planning in economics as unworkable as it's shown historically to be. I still regard myself on the centre-left, and (roughly speaking) a social democrat, but am not stupid enough to think that left = unquestionably good. The section of the left that wants to keep everyone behind closed state borders in the name of some twisted notion of equality can do one, frankly.

Cavey · **Posted:** Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:04

My word, there does seem to be an awful lot of political realignment and reassessment going on of late. If someone doesn't say some Lefty economic claptrap boilerplate soon, I'm going to start thinking I've logged onto the wrong forum... where's Hearthly when you need him?

Hero of Excellence · **Joined:** 23rd Nov, 2008 **Posts:** 674

Cavey wrote:

My word, there does seem to be an awful lot of political realignment and reassessment going on of late. If someone doesn't say some Lefty economic claptrap boilerplate soon, I'm going to start thinking I've logged onto the wrong forum... where's Hearthly when you need him?

Bollocks there has been any "realignment". My views are the same as they've always been. One can be on the centre-left and still find the atavistic Corbynite left-wing very dodgy and unappealing. I support the typical social-democratic goals of a mixed economy with a strong welfare state and equality of opportunity, just as I always have. And if anything, I find the Tories and their particularly foul blend of authoritarianism and laissez-faire at least as revolting as I have ever done. Particularly now as it seems set to ruin this country and the lives of many people living here by rushing towards Hard Brexit.

myp · **Posted:** Sun Jan 15, 2017 11:12

Grim... wrote:

Hero of Excellence wrote:

the whole parliamentary Labour party seems to have drank the Brexit Kool Aid.

Or they've resigned.

PLP != shadow government

myp · **Posted:** Sun Jan 15, 2017 11:15

Nope Cavey, I still hate the Tories and everything they stand for. Labour were much the same throughout my formative years, although their social programmes were a lot more palatable obviously.

I agree that Labour right now and Corbyn in particular are utterly useless though. And I can't support the Lib Dems because I really don't like their leader's views on equal marriage and religion. So :shrug:

*joins UKIP*

Curiosity · **Posted:** Sun Jan 15, 2017 12:00

Lonewolves wrote:

Nope Cavey, I still hate the Tories and everything they stand for. Labour were much the same throughout my formative years, although their social programmes were a lot more palatable obviously.

I agree that Labour right now and Corbyn in particular are utterly useless though. And I can't support the Lib Dems because I really don't like their leader's views on equal marriage and religion. So :shrug:

*joins UKIP*

Tim Farron voted repeatedly in favour of gay marriage (he abstained once over some minor amendments tabled re: religious minorities which he said said he since regretted).

One can only assume that you are against marriage equality. How odd.

I think if you are looking for a party where you agree with every minute detail of every policy and view they hold, you'll never, ever vote.

myp · **Posted:** Sun Jan 15, 2017 12:38

Yep, fair enough to be corrected on that. I've just checked out his voting record and you're right for a change.

Curiosity · **Posted:** Sun Jan 15, 2017 13:00

Lonewolves wrote:

Yep, fair enough to be corrected on that. I've just checked out his voting record and you're right for a change.

To be fair, it had to happen eventually.

Kern · **Posted:** Mon Jan 16, 2017 9:37

I find it staggering that the pound can fall in anticipation of a speech by the Prime Minister and yet the opposition are nowhere to be seen. Poor old Harold Wilson must be looking down/up at us and wondering what's changed.

Hearthly · **Joined:** 11th May, 2008 **Posts:** 13382

As someone who's been scoping out a new PC for a while now, it's quite annoying to find that everything is getting more expensive on a weekly basis.

I realise Brexit is bigger than just me getting cross about increasingly costly PC components because the pound is getting rogered, but still, this is the REAL IMPACT felt by the man on the street.

A spec that was coming in at about £1500 a few months ago is more like £1750 now.

markg · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 16559

Well then you should BUY BRITISH. Fucking traitor.

Hearthly · **Joined:** 11th May, 2008 **Posts:** 13382

Yes I'll buy nothing but genuine UK manufactured PC components, along with all that other stuff the UK allegedly produces and thus our manufacturers are having an absolute bonanza.

I mean, we basically don't really make anything any more, do we. There's probably a boutique kettle producer in Surrey that's doing alright as a result of the weakened pound, and that's about it.

LewieP · **Joined:** 29th Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 7600

I've spoke to a few UK game devs and they've said it probably works out OK for them, since the bulk of their income is earned in dollars. But that's more indie devs, larger studios will struggle because a lot of them rely on hiring talent from across Europe.

Bobbyaro · **Joined:** 18th Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 11843

Well they shouldn't, it is clear that the talent lies in the UK, but these devs are just traitors, betraying the upstanding talen in the UK by going for the cheapest option. Maybe now that European talent is so expensive we can stop employing anybody and all fall into a pit of our own making.

Kern · **Posted:** Tue Jan 17, 2017 8:03

Apparently Mrs May wants a 'clear break' from the EU. So that's blocking on Facebook, deleting emails, and not returning calls, but still saying she wants to be friends and respects them as people nonetheless?

Squirt · **Joined:** 31st Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 6512

And then drunkenly texting them at 2am telling them you still love them and you're so sorry and never should have left.

Hero of Excellence · **Joined:** 23rd Nov, 2008 **Posts:** 674

From last July...

Cras wrote:

Not even the worst doomsayers are imagining a scenario where we leave the EU but no longer have access to the single market. That's queueing around the street for your bread rations stuff. Which means they're promising the impossible, and there's no way they don't know that (May certainly isn't an idiot. Gove...knows people who aren't idiots). And that just brings me back to my prediction from last week.

Not a single PM candidate has the slightest intention for us to leave the EU.

This wasn't a great prophecy, although you're correct about how disastrous leaving the single market will be.

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49232

I don't think I was wrong at that time. I did, however, underestimate how willing UK politicians of all stripes would be to plunge us into disaster for fear of UKIP, Murdoch, and Dacre.

Kern · **Posted:** Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:27

The Supreme Court (and I still find it hard to realise we have one now, even though I've been there!) is passing judgement today. Getting some popcorn in. Anyone fancy a round of Brexit Bingo?

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

I don't see any possible way the court doesn't rule against the government, and I don't see any way the government doesn't get the votes to pass the A50 bill that results. And I don't see why on earth the government pushed the court case this far.

MrChris · **Joined:** 1st Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 30498

If you're struggling to see have you tried standing on a box?

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

MrChris wrote:

If you're struggling to see have you tried standing on a box?

Any box tall enough to let me see is to tall for me to climb on.

Kern · **Posted:** Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:44

Doctor Glyndwr wrote:

I don't see any possible way the court doesn't rule against the government, and I don't see any way the government doesn't get the votes to pass the A50 bill that results. And I don't see why on earth the government pushed the court case this far.

Perhaps they're doing us a favour and colouring in another space in the constitution. It's not, after all about Article 50, but about the boundaries between the executive and the legislative in an area that's always been unclear. If foreign policy is an executive function and law making/breaking a legislative function, then who holds the brief when it comes to foreign policy that involves making laws? There's a brief discussion of the theoretical issue in Ray Rapheal's 'Mr President: Why the founders created a chief executive' detailing how the framers of the US constitution grappled with placing treaty making rights. We, of course, just muddle through and resolve these things as they arise.

MaliA · **Posted:** Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:09

Doctor Glyndwr wrote:

I don't see any possible way the court doesn't rule against the government, and I don't see any way the government doesn't get the votes to pass the A50 bill that results. And I don't see why on earth the government pushed the court case this far.

I think there are elements of making sure it is done properly, and getting the method blessed by the Supreme Court is important. Make sure it is watertight, so to speak.

Kern · **Posted:** Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:11

MaliA wrote:

Make sure it is watertight, so to speak.

Or, in other words, if we're going to build ourselves some gallows, we'd better be sure they won't collapse.

MaliA · **Posted:** Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:12

Kern wrote:

MaliA wrote:

Make sure it is watertight, so to speak.

Or, in other words, if we're going to build ourselves some gallows, we'd better be sure they won't collapse.

Well put.

ApplePieOfDestiny · **Joined:** 17th Dec, 2008 **Posts:** 8293

Doctor Glyndwr wrote:

I don't see any possible way the court doesn't rule against the government, and I don't see any way the government doesn't get the votes to pass the A50 bill that results. And I don't see why on earth the government pushed the court case this far.

The conspiracy theory is to test how the supreme court act on a non risk decision so that they can build that into thinking for future, riskier decisions following the point that it becomes the absolute supreme court.

MaliA · **Posted:** Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:26

THE TENSION

MaliA · **Posted:** Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:27

ApplePieOfDestiny wrote:

Doctor Glyndwr wrote:

I don't see any possible way the court doesn't rule against the government, and I don't see any way the government doesn't get the votes to pass the A50 bill that results. And I don't see why on earth the government pushed the court case this far.

The conspiracy theory is to test how the supreme court act on a non risk decision so that they can build that into thinking for future, riskier decisions following the point that it becomes the absolute supreme court.

An interesting idea.

Kern · **Posted:** Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:34

Has the Supreme Court's emblem won any design awards? I think it's brilliant.

Kern · **Posted:** Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:45

A victory for Parliament against the Crown.

Grim... · **Posted:** Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:52

So what does that mean, people who sit at the front of the class and pay attention?

Kern · **Posted:** Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:54

They have to pass a bill. Haven't read the judgement yet but it might be as short as:

Code:

I. The Secretary of State may, on a date of her choosing, activate Article 50.
II. This Act may be known as the 'Up Yours Delors Act 2017' 

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

Kern wrote:

Perhaps they're doing us a favour and colouring in another space in the constitution.

I can't think of a politician I'd credit with sufficient long-term thinking to take the sacrifice of losing a court case for that. But perhaps I am too cynical.

Kern · **Posted:** Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:01

Doctor Glyndwr wrote:

Kern wrote:

Perhaps they're doing us a favour and colouring in another space in the constitution.

I can't think of a politician I'd credit with sufficient long-term thinking to take the sacrifice of losing a court case for that. But perhaps I am too cynical.

Every generation needs an Admiral Byng.

myp · **Posted:** Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:04

Kern wrote:

Every generation needs an Admiral Byng.

Fleet Admiral Gougle's less popular colleague.

Bobbyaro · **Joined:** 18th Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 11843

sadly, our politicians have more in common with this bing:

Squirt · **Joined:** 31st Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 6512

Grim... wrote:

So what does that mean, people who sit at the front of the class and pay attention?

I think it means that May is going to retreat to a Royalist heartland and start raising regiments of pike and musketmen.

MaliA · **Posted:** Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:09

Labour is on a slippery slope if it falls for the Brexiteers’ claim that last year’s referendum result is untouchable. On the contrary, the party should campaign to reverse the result if it takes power again. Public support for Brexit is more likely to diminish than increase as Brexit’s costs and job losses become clearer.

Somewhat interesting article about the referedum result.

Be Excellent To Each Other

Taking the Brexit

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