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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 16:07 
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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 16:34 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Careful; that graph is of absolute numbers, but the number of seats up for election varies. If you win +200 seats and only 300 were up for election, clearly that's a strong result, not a weak one. That's why I normalised my graph a few pages back to percentages of overall seats.


Very roughly
If you take the data from your table* for the years 1998, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2011, leaders in in their first year can expect around a 7% gain when in opposition. 2016 was a loss of 0.7% which is eleven fold reduction.

*added columns together then divided net gain from chart above to give a %age

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 17:00 
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That feels like data that means something, now.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 17:00 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
That feels like data that means something, now.


You might want to check it though.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 18:02 
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This no platforming nonsense has gone too far!

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 18:06 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
That feels like data that means something, now.
Information!

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 18:07 
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http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... misleading

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 19:14 
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Hearthly wrote:

I believe this is what they call an iron fist in a velvet glove.

Aw, I really wasn't trying to be mean :( I'm sorry, I just think that Cavey's efforts would perhaps be recognised more if he posted something different, because all his posts get musged into one long rant when I try to read them, because if the repetition.

I try not to be mean to people when I post (apart from to Myp, partly because it's Myo, and partly because I luffs him so have to hold him to a higher level of expectation than most (I mean, he always fails my expectation, but he's getting better) and he gave me away at my wedding and so is essentially my dad.

But I try to be kind to people as much as I can, but sometimes it's hard to say how you feel without hurting someone unintentionally. Maybe I'm no good at saying awkward things though, because I once tackled the issue of a lad at uni with awful B.O. who was obviously in need of a shower by telling him that he actually had quite a nice natural scent but perhaps he didn't need quite so much of it.m

I still tell myself off for accidentally saying that about once or twice a month, and it was 15 years ago...

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 20:12 
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Hearthly wrote:
an iron fist in a velvet glove.


Sex tape.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2016 20:32 
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Mimi wrote:
Aw, I really wasn't trying to be mean :( I'm sorry, I just think that Cavey's efforts would perhaps be recognised more if he posted something different, because all his posts get musged into one long rant when I try to read them, because if the repetition.

I try not to be mean to people when I post (apart from to Myp, partly because it's Myo, and partly because I luffs him so have to hold him to a higher level of expectation than most (I mean, he always fails my expectation, but he's getting better) and he gave me away at my wedding and so is essentially my dad.


I honestly think it was a reasonable comment Mimi, I don't believe for one second your intention was to upset or hurt Cavey and I wouldn't wish to see such comment be made because I genuinely like the guy and truly believe him to be a thoroughly decent chap. (Although gawd knows we chucked our fair measure of crap at each other back in the old Fruit Forums days, but we're hopefully quite a lot older and maybe a little bit wiser now :D)

I ducked out of being political in this thread a fair while back now, because nothing much good seems to come of it, and no one's mind seems to get changed one iota about anything, although I do still read it because the folks here are interesting and intelligent, and I like reading what they have to say - even if in this case it is generally people from opposing sets of trenches chucking ordnance at each other (mainly graphs and pie-charts) with very little overall effect save for the occasional falling out.

Personally I think it's quite a tough time to be a left-leaning type, as many others have already given more comprehensive voice to than I can muster (Doc G's brief analysis here, for example - viewtopic.php?p=904278#p904278). I can imagine there's a lot to point and laugh at as a Conservative at the moment, but being a gracious winner can be just as endearing as being a gracious loser, and maybe it's the former that would be a better choice at the moment.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 10, 2016 15:44 
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Curiosity wrote:
I'm with Cavey on Nigeria.

Some parts of it are nice, others less so, and despite the prospering economy, there's a lot of corruption.

Not that there's no corruption over here; just nobody seems to care when it is done by our MPs. Weird.



Take a look at @BBCBreaking's Tweet: https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/ ... 07072?s=09

Oops

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 10, 2016 15:47 
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Hearthly wrote:
I ducked out of being political in this thread a fair while back now, because nothing much good seems to come of it, and no one's mind seems to get changed one iota about anything,


Welcome to the internet. You must be new here...


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 10, 2016 17:21 
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TheVision wrote:
Hearthly wrote:
I ducked out of being political in this thread a fair while back now, because nothing much good seems to come of it, and no one's mind seems to get changed one iota about anything,


Welcome to the internet. You must be new here...


Even by internet standards, I meant :)


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed May 11, 2016 8:49 
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One of the larger schools academies -- one which Cameron said had a "brilliant team" - has collapsed with significant evidence of corruption. Oops.

Quote:
The Perry Beeches trust’s financial difficulties, including debts estimated by one member of staff as reaching £1.8m and rising by tens of thousands of pounds each month, have deterred potential sponsors, meaning that the trust will probably be divided up and individual schools taken over by different sponsors.

...

[CEO/executive headteacher] Nolan resigned as the trust’s chief executive at Easter after a damning report on financial mismanagement by auditors from the Education Funding Agency (EFA), the DfE’s accounting watchdog, was published in March.

Following publication of the first report, EFA investigators have returned to the schools for a second inquiry. The investigators are said to be looking into the school’s hiring practices as well as issues over admissions and exclusions, and allegations of inappropriate use of funds including political donations.

Jon Hunt, a Liberal Democrat on Birmingham city council, said he had made a formal complaint to the Electoral Commission over the school’s involvement in sponsoring Labour party events.

One event was a fundraising dinner in 2014 for Gisela Stuart, the MP for Edgbaston, with Perry Beeches academy listed as a supporter on the invitations.

The EFA’s first report found that Nolan was paid an additional salary via a company named Nexus, which then made payments to another company, Liam Nolan Ltd, run by Nolan, in contravention of academies’ financial rules and Treasury guidelines.

Nolan’s company received £160,000 between 2013 and 2015 for Nolan’s services as Perry Beeches’s chief executive, the EFA reported. The payments were in addition to his salary as executive head.

The EFA investigation of Perry Beeches uncovered irregularities including nearly £1.3m in payments without contracts to Nexus as a third-party supplier. “No evidence of a formal procurement exercise, including quotations and tendering, was available for expenditure with Nexus,” the EFA report said.

A separate report by the EFA also found that more than £2.5m in free school meal (FSM) funding could not be confirmed because records had been erased. “The trust has breached the academies financial handbook by failing to retain any form of FSM eligibility evidence for a period of six years,” the EFA concluded.


A public institution given over into private control and then collapsing seconds later because the leaders are dipping their beaks? People awarding lucrative contracts to companies they control on the side with improper controls? Such cliché so stereotype wow. Why, it's almost like privatisation isn't a panacea after all!


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2016 11:27 
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Cavey wrote:
(In terms of my original post about Labour, I was more thinking of Livingstone's implosion - he is a major policy-making figure with gravitas, not x% or whatever - and Corbyn's very slow response to correct IMO)

Good job no major policy-making Tories are making gaffes about Hitler.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2016 13:31 
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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Sun May 15, 2016 14:00 
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There must be some sort of weird clause in the London Mayoral contract that causes you to make stupid statements about Hitler once you're out of office.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2016 12:55 
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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2016 12:57 
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MaliA wrote:

Definitely an interesting read.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2016 13:49 
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Lonewolves wrote:


I think it is stretching a point to one of ridiculousness. When I'm swinging over a pit with a whip then double jumping to grab the amulet of whatnot, in a game, I'm doing it for fun, not thinuking about the cultural resonance if such acts. It's highly unlikely that a game in which a young woman fights dinosaurs with 2 repeating pistols or zooms around Venice (in a highly disappointing follow up) in a motor launch, there's a higher purposeful narrative of "put it back where it belongs". The grauniad here is trying to hang an argument on a very thin nail. In CoD MW2 when I am mowing down the Chinese soldiers, it isn't out of racism, or shooting the passenger line in an airport terminal, it isn't out of annoyance that I am asked if I pack my own bag. It's a game. If you want to push it and call it art; then it is that and the Chinese had to die as did the airport people because it devices and motivations.

There's a huge over-think going on but one that is only one dimensional.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2016 13:53 
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MaliA wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:


I think it is stretching a point to one of ridiculousness. When I'm swinging over a pit with a whip then double jumping to grab the amulet of whatnot, in a game, I'm doing it for fun, not thinuking about the cultural resonance if such acts. It's highly unlikely that a game in which a young woman fights dinosaurs with 2 repeating pistols or zooms around Venice (in a highly disappointing follow up) in a motor launch, there's a higher purposeful narrative of "put it back where it belongs". The grauniad here is trying to hang an argument on a very thin nail. In CoD MW2 when I am mowing down the Chinese soldiers, it isn't out of racism, or shooting the passenger line in an airport terminal, it isn't out of annoyance that I am asked if I pack my own bag. It's a game. If you want to push it and call it art; then it is that and the Chinese had to die as did the airport people because it devices and motivations.

There's a huge over-think going on but one that is only one dimensional.

Umm, all right then.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2016 14:03 
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Lonewolves wrote:
MaliA wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:


I think it is stretching a point to one of ridiculousness. When I'm swinging over a pit with a whip then double jumping to grab the amulet of whatnot, in a game, I'm doing it for fun, not thinuking about the cultural resonance if such acts. It's highly unlikely that a game in which a young woman fights dinosaurs with 2 repeating pistols or zooms around Venice (in a highly disappointing follow up) in a motor launch, there's a higher purposeful narrative of "put it back where it belongs". The grauniad here is trying to hang an argument on a very thin nail. In CoD MW2 when I am mowing down the Chinese soldiers, it isn't out of racism, or shooting the passenger line in an airport terminal, it isn't out of annoyance that I am asked if I pack my own bag. It's a game. If you want to push it and call it art; then it is that and the Chinese had to die as did the airport people because it devices and motivations.

There's a huge over-think going on but one that is only one dimensional.

Umm, all right then.


It's OK. Not really directed at you, more the stupid turn the grauniad has taken. When it was just Burchhill I didn't mind being angry at her having column space. It was well written drivel Now, it seems to just stick piece after piece up with the same bollocks and it's more than one writer churning click bait bollocks out. They seem to ask any cunt with a tumblr account an instagram of puppies to write for them.I haven't even started what a prize thick twat I think Valenti is yet, either. What used to be well thought out well argued articles is now a race to the bottom of "who shall we feel a bit vondescendingly sorry for today and explain to others why we should feel this way" but written by a 16 year old who probably dots their i's with hearts.

For a once decent paper, it's terrible how low it has fallen.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2016 14:07 
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MaliA wrote:
but written by a 16 year old who probably dots their i's with hearts.


I really wasn't going to comment but L-LOL :DD
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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2016 14:10 
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MaliA wrote:
It's OK. Not really directed at you,

I often think about the ramifications of the media I consume - hence I would never see American Sniper for example. The article even states the reasons why we play these games and enjoy them. I don't think it was calling for us to stop or ban them.

I think it's ok to enjoy TV/games/movies with problematic elements, as long as you acknowledge them. You've gone a bit overboard in your apoplexy about this, imo.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 9:43 
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Corbyn more popular with members than ever: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blo ... itics-live

So basically he is unassailable as leader but also unelectable as PM, as Mandelson says here: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/j ... 1a329f4e11

Will be interesting to see what his critics in the PLP do next. I can't see how any efforts to oust him as leader will work at all.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 9:46 
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YouGov? They probably forgot to count the women, or something.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 10:08 
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:DD

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 10:21 
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I still think they'll be better off replacing Corbyn with someone else in the run up to the general election, but in the meantime he's a great choice for giving the party an identity and a backbone.

Replace him with someone a bit younger, with a bit more charisma, but someone who is still obviously in touch with the party's supposed ideological roots. I like Corbyn, but I'm unconvinced of his ability to be a proper statesman (or at least I'm unconvinced of his ability to appear to be that to a majority of voters).


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 11:21 
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And replace him with someone who doesn't want to see the human race wiped out by a meteor too. That'd be nice.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 11:55 
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Mr Dave wrote:
And replace him with someone who doesn't want to see the human race wiped out by a meteor too. That'd be nice.

He wants to see us wiped out by a meteor...?

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 11:58 
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Mr Russell wrote:
Mr Dave wrote:
And replace him with someone who doesn't want to see the human race wiped out by a meteor too. That'd be nice.

He wants to see us wiped out by a meteor...?


:attitude:

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 12:05 
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Mr Russell wrote:
Mr Dave wrote:
And replace him with someone who doesn't want to see the human race wiped out by a meteor too. That'd be nice.

He wants to see us wiped out by a meteor...?

Slightly tongue in cheek, but...

http://www.parliament.uk/business/publi ... on=2003-04


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 12:12 
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Slightly?


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 12:13 
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Slightly?

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 13:11 
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True. You are pretty slight.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 13:30 
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When Mr Dave meets Jeremy Corbyn he creates more electability.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed May 18, 2016 12:03 
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So, Queen's Speech time.
BBC list of bills.

As usual, it's the IT-related bills that are most irritating.
Quote:
◾All websites containing pornographic images to require age verification for access
.

ALL websites? Even Tumblr?


Also, I hope the whole Human Rights Act repeal really has been kicked into the long grass. I also get annoyed when they talk about 'a British Bill of Rights' because we already have one that predates the Convention.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed May 18, 2016 12:45 
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Age verification as in set the year to 1900 and then click "confirm".

Lets make sure no one tells under 18s how to do that.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed May 18, 2016 13:01 
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they'll never figure out; the tories are destroying schools to stop them learning how to use a computer.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Fri May 20, 2016 12:03 
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Liberal Democrats' Triumphant Return to Government! 100% of party in cabinet!

as Welsh Education secretary


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Fri May 20, 2016 15:19 
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Your NHS is in safe hands with the party of fiscal responsibility!

Quote:
Patient care could start to suffer after hospitals and other NHS trusts in England overspent by a record £2.45bn last year, experts are warning. The unprecedented deficit for 2015-16 - triple what was recorded the year before - is largely a result of hospitals busting their budgets. They will now need to use extra money they are being given this year to bail themselves out.

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Of course, when they say "overspent", what they mean is "underfunded." The NHS is a public service and not a commercial entity.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Fri May 20, 2016 15:46 
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Might just be coincidence, but the Rt. Hon. Jeremy Hunt was appointed as Health Secretary in September 2012.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Fri May 20, 2016 15:55 
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GazChap wrote:
Might just be coincidence, but the Rt. Hon. Jeremy Hunt was appointed as Health Secretary in September 2012.


I think most people are probably agreed that we would have been better off with Ron Jeremy than the Rt Hon Jeremy.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Fri May 20, 2016 15:57 
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Cras wrote:
GazChap wrote:
Might just be coincidence, but the Rt. Hon. Jeremy Hunt was appointed as Health Secretary in September 2012.


I think most people are probably agreed that we would have been better off with Ron Jeremy than the Rt Hon Jeremy.

:D

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed May 25, 2016 13:12 
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Trump overtakes Clinton in polls for the first time:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/donald-tr ... ?r=US&IR=T

Still feeling supremely confident that Trump can't win...?


From my POV I was never worried about Scottish Independence and was proved right. Ditto the outcome of the GE, as against all odds and polls - and I'm similarly not worried about Brexit either (i.e. we'll be staying in, albeit it'll be a close vote). But Trump...? I'm not saying he's gonna win - shit, I hope not - but my spidey-senses are jangling like bloody mad. The Americans might just be stupid enough to elect him, in which case it really is 'goodnight, Irene'. :(

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Of course, he's normally wrong but interestingly wrong :p


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed May 25, 2016 13:20 
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Commander-in-Cheese

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The silly thing about reporting on GE polls at this point is that Clinton is still in the middle of a primary race. A huge chunk of the Sanders supporters are deliberately voting for Trump in this sort of poll - because they want their guy to look like he's got a better chance of winning the presidential than Clinton does while there's still a primary race to win (and of course vice-versa for any Trump/Sanders poll).

Any presidential voting poll while there's still a primary race in progress is meaningless.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed May 25, 2016 13:21 
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SavyGamer

Joined: 29th Apr, 2008
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I've thought that he probably would get elected for quite some time.

The only question in my mind then would be whether the global armageddon happens before or after Boris gets a shot at being PM.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed May 25, 2016 13:23 
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@Cras

Mmm. Well, I hope you're right.
Might just be that the prospect of a Trump presidency is so utterly and uniquely appalling, but like I say, my gut is not giving me much of a feelgood about this. I remain VERY worried, 50/50 I reckon. (Btw, it has nothing to do with raw black pudding or ill-kept condiments. :D )

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Beware of gavia articulata oculos...

Dr Lave wrote:
Of course, he's normally wrong but interestingly wrong :p


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed May 25, 2016 13:33 
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Commander-in-Cheese

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Oh don't get me wrong, it'll be a sphincter-clenching election period, but we're not in a position to actually have any real feel for how the election will run until the conventions are done with.

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Drunk, pulled Craster's pork, waiting for brdyime story,reading nuts. Xz


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed May 25, 2016 13:36 
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Gogmagog

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I think Trump will win. It is too soon for a female US president. There will be another President Clinton, and she will be elected some time after 2031 and be Chelsea.

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