Political Banter and Debate Thread

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

As someone who is renting in London, on a purely selfish level I am of course praying for (1). It's about the only way it makes economic sense for us to stay here, and I'm saying that as someone on a pretty decent salary.

Things aren't great in the rest of the county, either. As the graph above shows, first-time-buyer to earnings are very high country wide, even if they are less berserk than they are in London. Prices in hot areas are back around the 2005/6 top of the market level. Even in my humble little town in Wales, the house I bought in Jan 2006 sold in May 2015 for 98% of what I paid. However precarious the market was in 2006, it's not obviously much more stable now.

Part of me thinks this budget was the first part of Osborne's leadership campaign for 2020. Abolish the incredibly dangerous-to-his-image welfare cuts and throw a sop to Generation Rent, who are increasing in size and increasingly angry. Feels like a calculated move that it would cost him too much electoral goodwill when he comes up against Johnson.

Dr Zoidberg · **Joined:** 15th Oct, 2010 **Posts:** 5146

Except his expression when the Lords blocked him showed he was serious.

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

Warhead wrote:

With my cynical head on, I'd say that this could have been predicted. Threaten something totally controversial with no actual intention of implementing it,then everyone will say what a jolly good chap you are when you do your U-turn.

The more Machiavellian explanation was that some of the big, big promises in the Tory manifesto were overstated with the idea they would be bargaining chips in coalition agreements; and then they won an unexpected majority and had to walk some of them back. Doesn't feel likely, to me; too pat an explanation. But we have had a number of significant retreats, including austerity today and the Human Rights Act reform that was abandoned almost immediately after the election.

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

Dr Zoidberg wrote:

Except his expression when the Lords blocked him showed he was serious.

He was serious then. A week's a long time in politics and there's been a tide of public opinion against the welfare cuts building in the meantime. Maybe it finally reached a tipping point in his calculus.

Warhead · Noob as of 6/8/10

Politics is a complex, sneaky and dirty game.

Grim... · **Posted:** Wed Nov 25, 2015 22:49

Warhead wrote:

Politics is a complex, sneaky and dirty game.

We make them climb a filthy ladder to get there, then complain they've got dirty hands.

Hearthly · **Joined:** 11th May, 2008 **Posts:** 13382

Ooohhhh profundity!

Plus I don't think it's necessarily true either, the mass media and the stupidity of most people have a lot to answer for.

Curiosity · **Posted:** Wed Nov 25, 2015 23:05

He's very clearly going for big headline vote grabbers. Apparently there's a lot of small print on stuff like councils getting fucked over, but his main win was the OBR giving him a free 32bn.

Warhead · Noob as of 6/8/10

Hearthly wrote:

Ooohhhh profundity!

Plus I don't think it's necessarily true either, the mass media and the stupidity of most people have a lot to answer for.

Yes, they are additional factors, but if it wasn't so complex, everything in the garden would be rosy, wouldn't it, and we'd be living in Utopia.

Warhead · Noob as of 6/8/10

Grim... wrote:

Warhead wrote:

Politics is a complex, sneaky and dirty game.

We make them climb a filthy ladder to get there, then complain they've got dirty hands.

They should keep their ladders clean, like what I tell my trainees when I'm running Working at Heights courses.

Cavey · **Posted:** Wed Nov 25, 2015 23:40

Feck me just seen the Chairman Mao despatch box special on the news.... If I was a Labourite I'd be crying into my beer. Face palm hardly covers it what a total bellend

Anonymous X · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 2046

Ideally social housing would be the regular rental housing in this country, as it is essentially in many European countries. That coupled with rental controls, of course. (Think of the advantages - lower housing benefits bill for the Exchequer, more people able to save up deposit for a mortgage, no more parasitic buy-to-let landlords endlessly pushing up house prices...)

The housing market here is as fucked and inequitable as healthcare provision is in the States, and it's being deliberately kept in this situation needlessly for similar reasons.

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49232

It's not really deliberate or needless - as Doc linked to on the previous page, rent controls wouldn't really fix things, and what other solutions are there?

MaliA · **Posted:** Thu Nov 26, 2015 0:05

As long as all these social housing things aren't near a school where Cap'n Shitpants is going to go, I am fine with that. We'll move in a couple of years into the catchment area of one of the good secondary schools.

Incidentally, £33k per annum is needed to get an 80% mortgage for a place in Bradford. £12k over average wage.

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32619

Anonymous X wrote:

no more parasitic buy-to-let landlords endlessly pushing up house prices...

I don't see how buy-to-let landlords can inflate housing bubbles, because as a straightforward business proposition they are as tied to the intrinsic value of property (ie. what they can afford to charge as rent) as anyone buying a house to live in.

Where it gets complicated is where a BTL landlord is also an investor; the rent maybe covers the mortgage, but delivers no return. The return that justifies the hassle is assumed to come from rises in house prices. But they are just as vulnerable to the bubble popping as any other investor, because most of them are mortgaged to the hilt. If rents fall even a little, so they no longer cover mortgage and other outgoings, and prices fall to put them in negative equity, then I think we could see a real bloodletting in London.

Kern · **Posted:** Thu Nov 26, 2015 10:17

Looks like Osborne is considering selling off some or all of the Ordnance Survey. I'm not against private investment per se, but I'd oppose anything that risks the ending of their paper map range. From a business mindset those would be the first to go as they aren't where the profits.

Grim... · **Posted:** Thu Nov 26, 2015 10:42

If it weren't for buy-to-let folks, lots of people that couldn't afford to buy a place would be homeless.

DavPaz · **Joined:** 27th Jun, 2008 **Posts:** 38458

Grim... wrote:

If it weren't for buy-to-let folks, lots of people that couldn't afford to buy a place would be homeless.

Not to mention those pesky migrants that can earn good wages, but struggle to get any kind of mortgage.

markg · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 16557

Weird, most people I know involved in it seem to regard it as a fairly piss easy way to make even more money if you have some spare cash knocking about but over the last day I keep hearing that buy to let landlords are somehow selflessly serving the community.

MaliA · **Posted:** Thu Nov 26, 2015 10:56

markg wrote:

Weird, most people I know involved in it seem to regard it as a fairly piss easy way to make even more money if you have some spare cash knocking about but over the last day I keep hearing that buy to let landlords are somehow selflessly serving the community.

I considered buying a place and renting it out. However, my back of fag packet calculations suggested it'd end up being a lot of effort for the monthly return, so I coyldn't be bothered. I was probably wrong.

Dr Zoidberg · **Joined:** 15th Oct, 2010 **Posts:** 5146

I let out my old house for a couple of years, and it was not a hugely profitable exercise except for the estate agents.

MaliA · **Posted:** Thu Nov 26, 2015 11:13

Dr Zoidberg wrote:

I let out my old house for a couple of years, and it was not a hugely profitable exercise except for the estate agents.

Yeah, I think that was my reasoning. The rent available would cover the mortgage and management fees. I would need a slush pool of cash for repairs and for the ash left at the end of each month, I figured it was better off going on existing mortgage. That, and I am bone idle.

Curiosity · **Posted:** Thu Nov 26, 2015 11:19

Buy-to-let is a longer term proposition for the most part.

Chap who owns my house probably paid about 200k for it ten years ago. As rents have risen along with property prices, my rent will cover more than the mortgage payments. In the meantime, he's clocked up over 200k in the rise of the property value.

He's also a fucking terrible landlord. But he's raking it in for no effort. Just got on the ladder at the right time.

Curiosity · **Posted:** Thu Nov 26, 2015 11:20

Grim... wrote:

If it weren't for buy-to-let folks, lots of people that couldn't afford to buy a place would be homeless.

Hard to tell, to be honest. There would still be large investment portfolios of properties for institutions that want a solid but unspectacular return, and councils and trusts would have a lot more property for those in genuine need. And prices would, of course, be far, far lower.

Trooper · **Joined:** 4th Mar, 2010 **Posts:** 22266

Kern wrote:

Looks like Osborne is considering selling off some or all of the Ordnance Survey. I'm not against private investment per se, but I'd oppose anything that risks the ending of their paper map range. From a business mindset those would be the first to go as they aren't where the profits.

Having dealt with them quite a bit on a previous project, they have no idea how to run a business in the new world of digital mapping, which is a shame. Too archaic and stuck in old business models to survive unless serious changes are made.

Grim... · **Posted:** Thu Nov 26, 2015 11:23

Curiosity wrote:

Hard to tell, to be honest.

Yeah, I guess you're ri...

Curiosity wrote:

There would still be large investment portfolios of properties for institutions that want a solid but unspectacular return, and councils and trusts would have a lot more property for those in genuine need. And prices would, of course, be far, far lower.

Oh. Not that hard to tell if you're a psychic, I guess?

myp · **Posted:** Thu Nov 26, 2015 11:25

Rents have dropped in my area. I rented a similar-sized flat in my area ten years ago and it was £575 pcm. Apparently I can rent mine out now for £500ish, and the mortgage is £450. So not really worth it.

A couple of years ago my flat would have rented for about £700.

MaliA · **Posted:** Thu Nov 26, 2015 11:32

Curiosity wrote:

Buy-to-let is a longer term proposition for the most part.

Chap who owns my house probably paid about 200k for it ten years ago. As rents have risen along with property prices, my rent will cover more than the mortgage payments. In the meantime, he's clocked up over 200k in the rise of the property value.

He's also a fucking terrible landlord. But he's raking it in for no effort. Just got on the ladder at the right time.

Yes, I think the barrier to entry is fairly high now.

A 2 bed terrace in Bingley runs in at about£110k. You can rent one for £550pcm. So the returns would be more linked to the long term.

Dr Zoidberg · **Joined:** 15th Oct, 2010 **Posts:** 5146

MaliA wrote:

Dr Zoidberg wrote:

I let out my old house for a couple of years, and it was not a hugely profitable exercise except for the estate agents.

Yeah, I think that was my reasoning. The rent available would cover the mortgage and management fees. I would need a slush pool of cash for repairs and for the ash left at the end of each month, I figured it was better off going on existing mortgage. That, and I am bone idle.

I got consent to lease from my existing mortgage company, so of the £600 rent, £72 went to the estate agents and about £300 went on an interest only mortgage.

£230 a month "profit" on the £20k equity seems reasonable at first glance, but I lost 40% in tax, so about £135 a month to me.

Paying that £20k off on my new house would have saved me probably £80 so I was actually £50 a month better off renting out my old house in the short term and that really isn't worth the stress.

At the end of two years I would have needed to move onto a proper buy to let mortgage which was much more costly. I could have binned the estate agents and saved some money there but I knew there would be work needed on the house soon so I bailed and sold it to one of the tenants.

It is still possible to make a profit, but you need to be there for a longer period and ideally treat the tenants badly which I wasn't prepared to do.

I'm convinced there's a far better return to be made buying properties to renovate and resell.

markg · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 16557

Future Warrior wrote:

Rents have dropped in my area.

Do you find that happens a lot?

MaliA · **Posted:** Thu Nov 26, 2015 11:46

I think so, but the drawback is you'd need a pool of cash to bankroll it each time, and capital gains may bite. I think not being able to put hands on £25k+ at shortish notice could be tricky for many. I would be tempted with the back to back terraces around here as there are fewer rooms, but SPQR could kick in.

Dr Zoidberg · **Joined:** 15th Oct, 2010 **Posts:** 5146

Senatus populusque romanus?

MaliA · **Posted:** Thu Nov 26, 2015 11:55

markg wrote:

Future Warrior wrote:

Rents have dropped in my area.

Do you find that happens a lot?

L-lol

Kern · **Posted:** Thu Nov 26, 2015 12:56

Dr Zoidberg wrote:

Senatus populusque romanus?

I was quite pleased that in St George's Hall in Liverpool some of the decor contains 'SPQL' motifs. Less pleased that I had to explain this to the friends I was with.

MaliA · **Posted:** Thu Nov 26, 2015 13:28

Dr Zoidberg wrote:

Senatus populusque romanus?

Small profit quick returns.

Dr Zoidberg · **Joined:** 15th Oct, 2010 **Posts:** 5146

Thanks. Hadn't heard that acronym before.

DBSnappa · **Posted:** Thu Nov 26, 2015 13:41

Dr Zoidberg wrote:

Thanks. Hadn't heard that acronym before.

Technically speaking it's an abbreviation. An acronym has to form a word and SPQR isn't a word.

markg · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 16557

Yes it is, it's pronounced spkwer.

myp · **Posted:** Thu Nov 26, 2015 13:59

DBSnappa wrote:

Dr Zoidberg wrote:

Thanks. Hadn't heard that acronym before.

Technically speaking it's an abbreviation. An acronym has to form a word and SPQR isn't a word.

Actually it's an initialism. An abbrev. is a shortening of an existing word.

Malc · **Posted:** Thu Nov 26, 2015 14:06

you can abbreviate more than one word though. So I think DBSnappa was still correct, just not as precise as your refinement.

myp · **Posted:** Thu Nov 26, 2015 14:08

Malc wrote:

you can abbreviate more than one word though. So I think DBSnappa was still correct, just not as precise as your refinement.

Abbreviating words down to single characters is either an acronym or an initialism, depending on whether you can pronounce it as a word or not.

Malc · **Posted:** Thu Nov 26, 2015 14:08

Wikipedia seems to contradict itself several times:

Quote:

An abbreviation (from Latin brevis, meaning short) is a shortened form of a word or phrase. It consists of a group of letters taken from the word or phrase. For example, the word abbreviation can itself be represented by the abbreviation abbr., abbrv. or abbrev.

In strict analysis, abbreviations should not be confused with contractions, acronyms, or initialisms, with which they share some semantic and phonetic functions, though all four are connoted by the term "abbreviation" in loose parlance.[1]:p167An abbreviation is a shortening by any method; a contraction is a reduction of size by the drawing together of the parts. A contraction of a word is made by omitting certain letters or syllables and bringing together the first and last letters or elements; an abbreviation may be made by omitting certain portions from the interior or by cutting off a part. A contraction is an abbreviation, but an abbreviation is not necessarily a contraction. Acronyms and initialisms are regarded as subsets of abbreviations (e.g. by the Council of Science Editors). They are abbreviations that consist of the initial letters or parts of words.

myp · **Posted:** Thu Nov 26, 2015 14:10

Seems pretty clear to me. We are both right, although I am more right.

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49232

Future Warrior wrote:

DBSnappa wrote:

Dr Zoidberg wrote:

Thanks. Hadn't heard that acronym before.

Technically speaking it's an abbreviation. An acronym has to form a word and SPQR isn't a word.

Actually it's an initialism. An abbrev. is a shortening of an existing word.

You're an initialism, you foetid, unspeakable, turgid, unbearably rank ejaculate with a rancid, rotten, inferior oratorial ranking

(Struggled a bit at the end there)

myp · **Posted:** Thu Nov 26, 2015 14:14

Cras wrote:

Future Warrior wrote:

DBSnappa wrote:

Dr Zoidberg wrote:

Thanks. Hadn't heard that acronym before.

Technically speaking it's an abbreviation. An acronym has to form a word and SPQR isn't a word.

Actually it's an initialism. An abbrev. is a shortening of an existing word.

You're an initialism, you foetid, unspeakable, turgid, unbearably rank ejaculate with a rancid, rotten, inferior oratorial ranking

(Struggled a bit at the end there)

GazChap · **Posted:** Thu Nov 26, 2015 14:21

Malc wrote:

Wikipedia seems to contradict itself several times

Film at 11!

MaliA · **Posted:** Thu Nov 26, 2015 23:32

https://www.vice.com/en_uk/read/chairman-lmao-051

Cavey · **Posted:** Fri Nov 27, 2015 12:03

I'm in the audience at R4's Any Questions? tonight (if they let me in lulz)

Question to BeexHiveMind: Any ideas of a really good question to ask the panel?

Grim... · **Posted:** Fri Nov 27, 2015 12:08

Who's on?

Cavey · **Posted:** Fri Nov 27, 2015 12:12

Grim... wrote:

Who's on?

From BBC website:

Quote:

Jonathan Dimbleby presents political debate and discussion from the Brooks Building at Manchester Metropolitan University with Financial Secretary to the Treasury David Gauke MP, the Editor of Prospect magazine Bronwen Maddox, Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer John McDonnell MP, and Simon Stevens the Chief Executive of NHS England.

So, John McDonnell eh? Oh goody. :metul:

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