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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:02 
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The top and bottom of it is that if you want better trains or healthcare then you need to pay for it. All the rest is a sideshow.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:30 
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I maintain that any industry where competition is impossible should be nationalised, and that very much applies to the railways.

With regard to pricing, you may not get a direct drop in cost, but right now treasury subsidies are basically being turned directly into shareholder profit, and limiting that route indirectly makes the public coffers better off.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 17:09 
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... of-killing

Rather a sobering read about the state of affairs in Mosul.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 18:17 
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Looks like Mugabe's on his way out.


Sic semper tyrannis.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 19:00 
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MaliA wrote:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/21/after-the-liberation-of-mosul-an-orgy-of-killing

Rather a sobering read about the state of affairs in Mosul.


Thanks for that. Yes, very sobering


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 9:20 
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Remember when we had seven years of grinding austerity, because if we didn't pay back the national debt we were doomed? Good times, good times.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 9:24 
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I'm not a Tory but surely the only bit of that graph which might raise an eyebrow is that last bar. The rest shows the increase in debt levelling off as the deficit was reduced.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 9:36 
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markg wrote:
I'm not a Tory but surely the only bit of that graph which might raise an eyebrow is that last bar. The rest shows the increase in debt levelling off as the deficit was reduced.

It was supposed to do a lot more than just about level off, though. Osborne in 2010:

Quote:
The formal mandate we set is that the structural current deficit should be in balance in the final year of the five-year forecast period, which is 2015-16 in this Budget. This mandate is: Structural – to give us flexibility to respond to external shocks; Current – to protect the most productive public investment; And credible – because the Office for Budget Responsibility, not the Chancellor, will decide on the output gap.

In order to place our fiscal credibility beyond doubt, this mandate will be supplemented by a fixed target for debt, which in this Parliament is to ensure that debt is falling as a share of GDP by 2015-16. I can confirm that, on the basis of the measures to be announced in this Budget, the judgement of the Office for Budget Responsibility published today, is that we are on track to meet these goals.


Year after year, we heard that the pain of austerity -- of welfare cuts, of limited public investment, of public sector pay freezes -- was justified by "paying back our credit card bills." Well, we got the downside, where is the upside?

I increasingly think this is going to turn into an electability crisis for the Tories. Look at this data from Sky. First: "who do you trust to run the economy" across all voters:

Image

Now the same data, broken down by age demographic:

Image

That's pretty dramatic, and I don't think it's a coincidence that those most badly affected by austerity have no confidence in Conservative governance -- combined with a crisis in housing which is entirely bi-partisan but the Conservatives just happen to be in power when the music is stopping so will cop most of the blame. It's quite a hole that Osborne has dug for the party.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:09 
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I was going to post, but really, it’s just all too pathetic for words. I have better things to do with my time than vainly trying to educate the perpetually deluded and/or stupid. Sorry. :)

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:12 
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Cavey wrote:
I have better things to do with my time than vainly trying to educate the perpetually deluded and/or stupid. Sorry. :)


Is that why you're not in Parliament?


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:14 
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Gogmagog

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Part of me hopes Hammond just says "Given for some I don't know why really reason we are leaving the EU, and it is going to negatively impact the economy, we have to prepare ..." and introduce Mega austerity with Mega taxes so people can still enjoy government services provided to the same level but the impact of a brexit means they have to pay for it. And then there are riots and we stay in EU.

Or they just borrow a quajillionbillionty dollars, and invest it all in fracking because does it really make any sense anymore?

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:31 
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How much of today's budget will be dumped in a week's time?


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:52 
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markg wrote:
I'm not a Tory but

This is the new I'm not a racist but. The gentleman doth protest too much!

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:03 
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It's all true. Moggmentum!


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:10 
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markg wrote:
It's all true. Moggmentum!

All you NHS types are secret Tories. Admit it!


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:21 
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Definitely. We love them all. Jeremy Hunt is most people's favourite one, though.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:44 
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EvilTrousers

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Cavey wrote:
I was going to post, but really, it’s just all too pathetic for words. I have better things to do with my time than vainly trying to educate the perpetually deluded and/or stupid. Sorry. :)


"You're all too stupid to understand me" is hardly an argument that can be levelled at this forum.

EXCEPT ZARDOZ OBVS.

As regards today's budget I am principally on the look out for further IR35 reforms being rolled out to the private sector effectively ending the industry I currently work in.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 13:49 
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Ahahaaa

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/ ... 0686605312


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 14:21 
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Growth forecasts cut again in the budget. Nice graph with context:


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 14:59 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Ahahaaa

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/ ... 0686605312


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 15:05 
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No stamp duty for first time buyers on houses under £300k; no stamp duty on the first £300k on houses up to £500k.

Definition of "first time buyers", like Help To Buy and the Lifetime ISA, is "people who have never owned property." I bought a house in Wales in Jan 2006 which I had to sell at a loss to move to London; I have no equity, yet am excluded from all these schemes.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 15:10 
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And that's not going to help the actual problem, really, right? It'll inflate the cost of first-time-suitable houses.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 15:13 
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Squirt wrote:
And that's not going to help the actual problem, really, right? It'll inflate the cost of first-time-suitable houses.

Yes, it actually makes it worse for anyone in my position.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 15:14 
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Gogmagog

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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
No stamp duty for first time buyers on houses under £300k; no stamp duty on the first £300k on houses up to £500k.

Definition of "first time buyers", like Help To Buy and the Lifetime ISA, is "people who have never owned property." I bought a house in Wales in Jan 2006 which I had to sell at a loss to move to London; I have no equity, yet am excluded from all these schemes.


That's balls. Sorry to hear that.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 15:14 
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£3 billion for Brexit preparations. Can't we spend it on the NHS instead?


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 15:17 
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Do both. Just borrow a load of money now and then pay it back using all the extra cash we're going to have after Brexit!


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 15:41 
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Those growth prediction cuts are savage. Real world pay cuts for all for at least another 4 years.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 15:41 
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Curiosity wrote:
Those growth prediction cuts are savage. Real world pay cuts for all for at least another 4 years.


'Project Fear'.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 15:43 
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Stop being perpetually deluded and stupid people. Cavey has said things are great. We must believe him.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 15:48 
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Curiosity wrote:
Those growth prediction cuts are savage. Real world pay cuts for all for at least another 4 years.


No rise on beer duty though! Hooray!


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 15:58 
Filthy Junkie Bitch

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Trousers wrote:
Cavey wrote:
I was going to post, but really, it’s just all too pathetic for words. I have better things to do with my time than vainly trying to educate the perpetually deluded and/or stupid. Sorry. :)


"You're all too stupid to understand me" is hardly an argument that can be levelled at this forum.

EXCEPT ZARDOZ OBVS.

As regards today's budget I am principally on the look out for further IR35 reforms being rolled out to the private sector effectively ending the industry I currently work in.

You may have missed it, but in the Red Book they've acknowledged for the first time that this is definitely going to happen.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 16:07 
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EvilTrousers

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ApplePieOfDestiny wrote:
Trousers wrote:
Cavey wrote:
I was going to post, but really, it’s just all too pathetic for words. I have better things to do with my time than vainly trying to educate the perpetually deluded and/or stupid. Sorry. :)


"You're all too stupid to understand me" is hardly an argument that can be levelled at this forum.

EXCEPT ZARDOZ OBVS.

As regards today's budget I am principally on the look out for further IR35 reforms being rolled out to the private sector effectively ending the industry I currently work in.

You may have missed it, but in the Red Book they've acknowledged for the first time that this is definitely going to happen.


It always was really - just a matter of when. I was fearing April 2018 in a bid to accelerate tax receipts, especially when I saw those growth figures, so this is a win for me really - gives me a chance to get out before the hammer falls.

Still - no VAT threshold reduction thank fuck.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 16:48 
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Squirt wrote:
And that's not going to help the actual problem, really, right? It'll inflate the cost of first-time-suitable houses.
OBR say exactly this

http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/box/ ... me-buyers/

Quote:
On this basis, post-SDLT prices paid by FTBs would actually be higher with the relief than without it. Thus the main gainers from the policy are people who already own property, not the FTBs themselves. For some potential FTBs with smaller deposits, who are constrained by loan-to-value lending criteria, the relief will enable them to borrow a multiple of their SDLT saving, allowing them to buy properties that they otherwise could not afford – but more expensively.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 16:50 
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Every new government housing scheme is the same: it prioritises preserving value for existing owners over lowering prices for new buyers. In favouring the first, the effect on the second is at best weak and at worst unnoticeable.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 17:09 
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Trousers wrote:
Cavey wrote:
I was going to post, but really, it’s just all too pathetic for words. I have better things to do with my time than vainly trying to educate the perpetually deluded and/or stupid. Sorry. :)


"You're all too stupid to understand me" is hardly an argument that can be levelled at this forum.

EXCEPT ZARDOZ OBVS.

As regards today's budget I am principally on the look out for further IR35 reforms being rolled out to the private sector effectively ending the industry I currently work in.

Hey! I understand perfectly well that it's not very good all this stuff like.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 17:34 
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Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Every new government housing scheme is the same: it prioritises preserving value for existing owners over lowering prices for new buyers. In favouring the first, the effect on the second is at best weak and at worst unnoticeable.

Short of engineering a crash there's not much else they can do, is there?

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 17:35 
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Grim... wrote:
Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Every new government housing scheme is the same: it prioritises preserving value for existing owners over lowering prices for new buyers. In favouring the first, the effect on the second is at best weak and at worst unnoticeable.

Short of engineering a crash there's not much else they can do, is there?


Indeed. There needs to be a house price crash, but if one happens, it fucks over homeowners. I have absolutely no idea how you go about addressing that.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 17:37 
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Heavy Metal Tough Guy

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Build a fuck ton of housing?


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 17:38 
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Gogmagog

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Invade France.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 17:39 
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Squirt wrote:
Build a fuck ton of housing?

Never in Mali's back yard

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 17:39 
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Squirt wrote:
Build a fuck ton of housing?

If anything, that would just bring about a crash which would put a hell of a lot people in hock.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 17:40 
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Wouldn't a crash put interest rates through the roof?

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 17:41 
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Squirt wrote:
Build a fuck ton of housing?

But there are a fuck ton of new houses being built!

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 17:42 
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Lonewolves wrote:
Wouldn't a crash put interest rates through the roof?


Not really. Interest rates rise to control inflation, and a housing crash wouldn't necessarily cause an inflation spike

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 17:43 
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Cras wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:
Wouldn't a crash put interest rates through the roof?


Not really. Interest rates rise to control inflation, and a housing crash wouldn't necessarily cause an inflation spike

In that case, as a home owner I welcome a crash if it means other people can afford to buy.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 17:44 
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There's no way you can build houses quick enough to make a true crash though. Every bloody builder in the UK knocking out 2 bed semi's would hardly send it through the floor.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 17:46 
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Is it just supply and demand or the increase in buy to let that's fucking everything up?


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 17:47 
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Lonewolves wrote:
Wouldn't a crash put interest rates through the roof?

No, but it would put a substantial number of people in negative equity.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 17:53 
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Gogmagog

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Lonewolves wrote:
Squirt wrote:
Build a fuck ton of housing?

Never in Mali's back yard


Round me would cause traffic issues to further worsen, rainwater run off would cause havoc and subside the remnants of the open cast coal pits. There would be huge pressure on already over subscribed schools and other infrastructure and why build on green belt when there are loads of brownfield sites in Bradford proper?

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 Post subject: Re: Political Banter and Debate Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 17:55 
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MaliA wrote:
Lonewolves wrote:
Squirt wrote:
Build a fuck ton of housing?

Never in Mali's back yard


Round me would cause traffic issues to further worsen, rainwater run off would cause havoc and subside the remnants of the open cast coal pits. There would be huge pressure on already over subscribed schools and other infrastructure and why build on green belt when there are loads of brownfield sites in Bradford proper?

Too easy

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